What single alternative decision, by any character, would do the most to change the events of ASOIAF for the happier?

Realistic possibilities only please.

My suggestion: Ned refuses Robert and doesn't become Hand of the King.

Likely results:

- Sooner or later, Lannisters kill off Robert.

- Stannis rebels, as canon.

- Big variable: does Renly still announce himself as a pretender? His claim, if I remember correctly, was not substantially based on Joffrey's illegitimacy but rather his own popularity. So it seems likely he would.

- Stannis and Renly events happen largely as canon: Stannis assassinates Renly, Tywin (likely now the Hand) arranges a marriage to bring the Tyrells on board. The North and the Eyrie stay out of it. Or maybe Ned even backs the Lannisters, not being aware of Joffrey's illegitimacy. He would think Joffrey was the rightful heir.

- Stannis is quickly crushed.

- Peace under Lannister domination.

- The Others invade and the Starks are in the North with the full strength of the north to assist the Night's Watch. Maybe this is enough to win, maybe not. Either way it's better odds than canon.

 

Would preventing Robert's Rebellion and therefore having the Targaryens still in power count?

I mean, the Mad King was sure mad, but Rhaegar might have been a better ruler.

Simply have Rhaegar be uninterested in Lyanna and eventually the Mad King dies of old age (or an assassination) and Rhaegar sits on the throne.

 

Didn't Rhaegar have tons of issues of his own though?

 

What if Tywin decided not to be a dick to Tyrion? I'm only going off the show, but Tyrion has done pretty well with the hand he was dealt. What would he be motivated to achieve if Tywin recognized that Tyrion is rather smart AND didn't treat him like shit?

 

His most notable action lead to the end of his dynasty, so I would say yes.

Even without the whole Lyanna thing, there was the Lords Paramount's alliance going on. Something with enough power behind to weaken the Throne's sovereignty. Perhaps Tywin would join the Stark-Tully-Arryn-Baratheon club or maybe seek an marriage with the Reach and form his own power block. Either way would likely lead to a more divided Westeros, a spark away from a great war.

Probably the best way for long term peace in unity in the continent is a sane king with dragons, nothing like the threat of n̶u̶c̶l̶e̶a̶r̶ dragon fire to keep the Lords in line. Maybe Aegon the Unlikely being successful in hatching the beasties would do. Though even then there would be several complicating issues.

 

Lyanna is the Knight of the Laughing Tree at Harrenhall. During the joust she is accidentally killed. Problems solved everyone lives.

 

I'd say Cersei not plotting to have Jaime put on the King's Guard, to stop him marrying Lysa Tully while keeping him in the capital with her.

This means Jaime doesn't get on the KG (at least not so soon, could still be a goal he wants), which doesn't spite Tywin enough to resign as hand. This stops the clusterfuck that was Aerys managing the council and the subsequent decisions he made, and while things would eventually come to a head it would have given Rhaegar enough time to ensure his succession to the throne. The Lyanna/Stark's plus retainers being burnt alive should also be nipped in the bud if Tywin was Hand at the time, or at least delayed enough for Rhaegar to get back to the capital to stop it.

Another one would probably be Robert Baratheon's father living, instead of dying in the ship wreck.

 

Just realized the main question has to do with personal decisions and not simple points of divergence. So, the obvious one would center on Robb; what if he didn't choose to marry Jeyen? What if he decided to attack Tywin instead of Jaime's army? Then Ned is probably the next guy whose decisions could've impacts the story; tell Robert the truth about Cersei before he goes on that fateful hunt, use Bran's fall as a reason to stay North etc.

I know there are fics where Jon doesn't join the Wall and stays with Robb, but I find it hard to believe that Jon Snow as one guy can radically alter the outcome of anything that happens in the South without some serious serious lucky breaks.

 

Yeah, this. Alternatively, Ned doesn't act like a retard and tells Robert right away.

 

Aerys doesn't trust Jaime with knowledge of the wildfire deposits across the city, resulting in the city's destruction and the death of Tywin Lannister and all his army.

The head cut off the snake of the Targaryen dynasty, Robert is crowned king with no fear of being cuckolded, the Targaryen cause is discredited and maybe we don't have a succession war sixteen years down the line.

 

...but instead we have hundreds of thousands of people killed, including the entire bureaucracy of the Crown, most of the working men of the West, and the remaining Targaryen-supporting nobles. This creates massive instability and probably famine in the West and creates considerable turmoil which Robert and Arryn have to work through whilst simultaneously negotiating peace with the Martells, Tyrells, and the gutted Lannisters (who knows what Tywin told them).

And there has been no resolution of the Blackfyre's, Danaeryas and Viserys' plot still goes down, if with more difficulty managing without Varys, and the Others are still in the wings.

And we have to return to where we began: This supposedly happy ending came at the cost of the deaths of everyone in the largest city in Westeros, and most of the male workforce of one of the Seven Kingdoms.

---------- Post automerged at 02:16 PM ---------- Previous post was at 02:08 PM ----------

My suggestion: Littlefinger is killed in his duel for Catelyn's hand.

This removes a major corrupting force from the capital, clears up the Vale succession, creates space for Jon Arryn to appoint a loyal and trusted noble to be present at court, and makes Ned's task easier down the road as he's not dealing with his machinations.

 

Speaking of Jaime Lannister; what if he decided to smuggle Elia, Aegon and Rhaenys out of King's Landing instead of waiting around? He gets them to Doran and Jaime stays with them as their protector. This would cause a lot of tension between the Iron Throne and Dorne, but it removes Jaime from Cersei, so no incest. Plus I like the idea of Jaime/Elia.

 

There's a story where this happens. I recall it being decent as well, but I don't remember the name.

 

Cersei has one kid with Robert and Daenerys dies early. All of Robert's alliances hold and the threat of a dragon invasion is gone.

 

It's unlikely to happen, but Tywin decides to side with the Targaryens before the Battle of the Trident. Tywin is the lead commander at the Battle of the Bells instead of Jon Connington and Tywin burns the Stoney Sept to the ground killing Robert with his army. Eddard and Jon Arryn show up after the village is destroyed. Ned, Jon Arryn and Hoster Tully have to decide if they are going to continue fighting and regroup.

 

I think the simplest way would be if Cersei chose to be a loyal wife instead of choosing to repeatedly bang her twin and then arrange regicide.

Robert would have strong Baratheon heirs when he eventually does die, Jon Arryn would live longer, Bran would be walking, Ned would be talking.

Robert's Targaryan hatred would have led him to sanction more attempts on Dany's life until one clicked. Simples.

 

1. Bureaucracy can be replaced. Especially pro-Targaryen/corrupt bureaucracy like that of King's Landing.
2. 10,000 men was what Tywin took to King's Landing, so I'm not sure what you're on about. Maybe fact-check next time?
3. The wealthiest region in Westeros is gonna have famine? Lolno. Perhaps instability if Kevan marched with Tywin, leaving the younger brothers to fight with Tywin's kids for the Rock, but that only benefits greater Westeros, especially Robert.
4. Elia Martell is dead, her children are dead with no blame on Robert. The Targs have just committed one of the worst war-crimes in history, so I hardly imagine Mace "Dip my banners when Ned Stark comes" Tyrell is gonna put up too much of a fight nor that Doran "Swallow peace for a decade+" Martell is going to do much more.
5. Who knows what Tywin told them? Who cares, the city just exploded from wildfire. Who uses wildfire other than Aerys Targaryen, a man known for pyromania and madness? It ain't that hard of a deduction, mate.

Blackfyres? The Blackfyres died on the Stepstones when Aerys wasn't even a king. Daenerys and Viserys's plot? They're on Dragonstone at this point, no plot needed. All Stannis has to do is get there in time and they're sorted, and if they're not, then who cares? Varys will have died in King's Landing, and without him Illyrio loses his biggest help in keeping Westeros weak.

As for the Others, I'll wait and see what they actually do besides killing a few rangers and scaring the wildlings before I big them up, sixteen years before they ever make a peek in canon.

 

Stannis, not being stupid, doesn't believe that Cersei's children are illegitimate simply because they have their mother's hair colour.

He never brings the issue up to Jon Arryn, who thus never dies, such that Ned never becomes Hand, nor does he get executed, thereby triggering Northern rebellion. And since Stannis believes that Joffrey is Robert's son, he will never rebel. And since the Lannisters will never have to kill Robert, neither will Renly get the opportunity to make his pretender's claim to the throne. And of course, with a united realm, Balon sees no opportunity to declare independence, and hence continues hiding under his rock.

All in all, the realm is at peace, despite certain threats to stability, whether domestic (Renly's plan to wed Margaery to Robert) or foreign (the Mother of Dragons cometh).

And so all hail King Joffrey! First of His Name, Protecter of the Realm and the Builder of Walls to Keep ISIS Mexican Rapists Out...

Oh wait sorry, wrong thread.