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Old 02-20-2017, 08:45 PM   #841
Darth_Revan
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Originally Posted by Ryriena View Post
I'm actually mildly shocked at the sheer ballsy-ness of that as a total and complete betrayal of our previous policy viz. Ukraine and Russia.

But you're right, I'm not shocked at it existing, it just continues to confirm my suspicions that Trump was coopted by Russia. This looks like it could have been the short term Quid for Russia's election-meddling Quo.
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Old 02-20-2017, 09:33 PM   #842
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This is literally so obviously a fucking Russian plant. It's like that Ukrainian dude is walking with a plaque written: IM A FSB DUDE. SHOOT ME!

So fucking stupid. Ukraine would rather go to war. It's like telling the Palestine that it's one state solution from now on only, and half of them should fuck off to the other Arabs. No one. No one will be happy.

That's why Tillerson is a decent pick. He thinks. If he were corrupt at least he wouldn't be this blatantly stupidly harmful.
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Old 02-20-2017, 09:54 PM   #843
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This is literally so obviously a fucking Russian plant. It's like that Ukrainian dude is walking with a plaque written: IM A FSB DUDE. SHOOT ME!

So fucking stupid. Ukraine would rather go to war. It's like telling the Palestine that it's one state solution from now on only, and half of them should fuck off to the other Arabs. No one. No one will be happy.

That's why Tillerson is a decent pick. He thinks. If he were corrupt at least he wouldn't be this blatantly stupidly harmful.
@Invictus, believe it or not, there are people in Ukraine who would rather capitulate to Russia, because they look to Russia for leadership and no the West. Ukraine is actually very divided in this respect, both in terms of public opinion, and of actual loyalties. It is entirely plausible that these overtures could have been made, and entirely consistent with the situation on the ground in Ukraine for it to have happened.

Also, you should note that these overtures were made to Trump's representatives via back channels that totally cut Tillerson out of the picture, so I don't see what your sudden confidence in him stems from, at least as it relates to this situation.

TL;DR: Skepticism is healthy, but I think your skepticism is misplaced.
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Old 02-20-2017, 09:59 PM   #844
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Originally Posted by Darth_Revan View Post
@Invictus, believe it or not, there are people in Ukraine who would rather capitulate to Russia, because they look to Russia for leadership and no the West. Ukraine is actually very divided in this respect, both in terms of public opinion, and of actual loyalties. It is entirely plausible that these overtures could have been made, and entirely consistent with the situation on the ground in Ukraine for it to have happened.

Also, you should note that these overtures were made to Trump's representatives via back channels that totally cut Tillerson out of the picture, so I don't see what your sudden confidence in him stems from, at least as it relates to this situation.

TL;DR: Skepticism is healthy, but I think your skepticism is misplaced.
I know. There's a civil war going there. And theres an opposition who supported the ousted president. Doesn't mean they are really popular though. The protests showed that at least that those willing to manifest are much more pro EU. And that was before Russia invaded them, funded rebels to kill and bombed them and tried blackmail them with cutting off gas and oil.

And my point is. Tillerson would never be so stupid as trying to do something so blatantly one sided. You may argue he is corrupt and inexperienced, but he can see a bad deal and a PR disaster from far. I never said he cut it off. Just that he wouldn't do something stupid like this.
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Old 02-20-2017, 10:14 PM   #845
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Originally Posted by Darth_Revan View Post
@Invictus, believe it or not, there are people in Ukraine who would rather capitulate to Russia, because they look to Russia for leadership and no the West. Ukraine is actually very divided in this respect, both in terms of public opinion, and of actual loyalties. It is entirely plausible that these overtures could have been made, and entirely consistent with the situation on the ground in Ukraine for it to have happened.

Also, you should note that these overtures were made to Trump's representatives via back channels that totally cut Tillerson out of the picture, so I don't see what your sudden confidence in him stems from, at least as it relates to this situation.

TL;DR: Skepticism is healthy, but I think your skepticism is misplaced.

Hmm, yes, making overtures to an opposition party nobody that would have to wait at least two years to get elected to implement this capitulation is exactly how Putin and Trump would negotiate a Ukraine settlement. Or not.

I mean, yes, there are a number of backroom channels through which this type of negotiation would actually make sense. If this intermediary was somebody like Victor Medvechuk or Leonid Kuchma, this would even be plausible. But this.. this is just foolishness of the highest order.

In any case, if such a peace plan were to actually be seriously proposed, you would quickly see a third revolution, and yet another president and co get chased out of Kyiv. The population of the capital, and most regional centres not directly or indirectly controlled by Russia has turned markedly anti-Russian thanks to almost 3 years of war. Whereas before the war you could consistently find positive attitudes to Russia poll well above 50%, these days you get closer to a 25-30%.
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Old 02-20-2017, 10:22 PM   #846
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I know. There's a civil war going there. And theres an opposition who supported the ousted president. Doesn't mean they are really popular though. The protests showed that at least that those willing to manifest are much more pro EU. And that was before Russia invaded them, funded rebels to kill and bombed them and tried blackmail them with cutting off gas and oil.

And my point is. Tillerson would never be so stupid as trying to do something so blatantly one sided. You may argue he is corrupt and inexperienced, but he can see a bad deal and a PR disaster from far. I never said he cut it off. Just that he wouldn't do something stupid like this.
The Maidan protests were more a function of Kyiv being in a very 'Ukrainian' part of Ukraine, if that makes sense. Many parts of the country are majority ethnic Russian and are consequently pro-Russia. Most of them were alive when Ukraine wasn't an independent country, so there isn't the same entrenched nationalism that most countries' populations have after a prolonged period of national identity development. Many of those people remain pro-Russia, especially the people in the rebel region of the Donbass.

Whether Tillerson would be stupid enough to go with this or not is beside the point, and that's leaving aside the fact that he's been entirely too cozy with the Kremlin during his previous life as a private company's executive. He had no part in this 'negotiation', so there was no influence he could exercise. This thing was run entirely out of the WH and Flynn's office, which shows the continued dysfunction of an Administration being run more like the Court of a medieval King.


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Hmm, yes, making overtures to an opposition party nobody that would have to wait at least two years to get elected to implement this capitulation is exactly how Putin and Trump would negotiate a Ukraine settlement.
Judging how the Russians almost pulled off a coup in Montenegro recently, I doubt it's out of the question that if they could 'get a deal', they could engineer a favorable reaction in Kyiv in comparatively short order.
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Old 02-20-2017, 10:29 PM   #847
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The Maidan protests were more a function of Kyiv being in a very 'Ukrainian' part of Ukraine, if that makes sense. Many parts of the country are majority ethnic Russian and are consequently pro-Russia.
Some census information you might find useful about these 'majority ethnic Russian areas'

Luhansk Oblast - 2,540.2 (100%)
Ukrainians - 1,472.4 (58.0%)
Russians - 991.8 (39.0%)
Belarusians - 20.5 (0.8%)
Tatars - 8.5 (0.3%)
Armenians - 6.5 (0.3%)

Donetsk Oblast - 4,825.6 (100%)
Ukrainians - 2,744.1 (56.9%)
Russians - 1,844.4 (38.2%)
Greeks - 77.5 (1.6%)
Belarusians - 44.5 (0.9%)
Tatars - 19.1 (0.4%)
Armenians - 15.7 (0.3%)

Other than Crimea, these were the most ethnically Russian oblasts in Ukraine. And they weren't even a majority before the war. Not surprisingly, there aren't too many ethnic Russian left outside the areas held by the DNR and LNR.

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Judging how the Russians almost pulled off a coup in Montenegro recently, I doubt it's out of the question that if they could 'get a deal', they could engineer a favorable reaction in Kyiv in comparatively short order.
And how well did that coup turn out in Montengro? As I recall, it was a failure.

EDIT: It's actually hilarious hearing Kyiv, a city where the majority of the language on the street is still in Russian, being referred to as a very 'Ukrainian' part of Ukraine. I wasn't aware it had magically teleported 500 miles westward.

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Old 02-20-2017, 10:36 PM   #848
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Originally Posted by Darth_Revan View Post
The Maidan protests were more a function of Kyiv being in a very 'Ukrainian' part of Ukraine, if that makes sense. Many parts of the country are majority ethnic Russian and are consequently pro-Russia. Most of them were alive when Ukraine wasn't an independent country, so there isn't the same entrenched nationalism that most countries' populations have after a prolonged period of national identity development. Many of those people remain pro-Russia, especially the people in the rebel region of the Donbass.

Whether Tillerson would be stupid enough to go with this or not is beside the point, and that's leaving aside the fact that he's been entirely too cozy with the Kremlin during his previous life as a private company's executive. He had no part in this 'negotiation', so there was no influence he could exercise. This thing was run entirely out of the WH and Flynn's office, which shows the continued dysfunction of an Administration being run more like the Court of a medieval King.
Since Hopper already disproved your claims about Russians being a majority in parts of Ukraine I won't go there. Kyiv is the heart of Ukraine and by far it's most important city. What Kiyv wants should not be dismissed as just what a minority wants. Ukraine isn't England where Londons composition is completely unlikely huge swaths of the country and much much more multiethnic and with its own culture. Kyiv isn't an isolated political city like Washington or Brasilia either. Dismissing it like that needs more proof than just saying it's much more Ukrainian than the rest of Ukraine. You gotta show there's a disconnect.

And whether Tillerson would be stupid or not is my whole point. My entire point was: If Tillerson was in charge of all FA negotiations of this type, stupid shit like this would get burned and ignored forever. That's my point. Not how Trump's administration works or if he did or didn't not know that this whole affair was happening. So no, don't move the goalposts just because you want to make a statement. My whole point is limited whether or not Tillerson would be stupid enough to seriously consider this. And I say no, he really isn't.
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Old 02-20-2017, 10:42 PM   #849
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It's actually hilarious hearing Kyiv, a city where the majority of the language on the street is still in Russian, being referred to a a very 'Ukrainian' part of Ukraine. I wasn't aware it had magically teleported 500 miles westward.

Some census information you might find useful about these 'majority ethnic Russian areas'.
This is very interesting, so obviously I need to do more research. I was basing my statement off of the maps of the most recent political elections in Ukraine, and assumed, apparently incorrectly, that the partisan identity of the voters correlated more closely with their ethnic background. What accounts for such a large part of the country voting for the 'pro-Russia' party, then?
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Old 02-20-2017, 10:49 PM   #850
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This is very interesting, so obviously I need to do more research. I was basing my statement off of the maps of the most recent political elections in Ukraine, and assumed, apparently incorrectly, that the partisan identity of the voters correlated more closely with their ethnic background. What accounts for such a large part of the country voting for the 'pro-Russia' party, then?
The short answer is patronage and electoral fraud, which is the way politics operates in the country. And significant voter apathy and cynicism towards the corruption, even with the revolutions.

One thing you have to understand is that these parties, even at their height, don't brand themselves as openly pro-Russian. Rather, they do the same old slogans about economic development, and serving their regional populations.

Up until 2013, Yanokuvych was openly negotiating the EU-Ukraine DCFTA. The only reason the revolution actually happened was because he shelved the FTA. Before then, he was performing a balancing act between the EU and Russia. It was him abandoning this balancing act that pushed the country into mass protest.

It's difficult to believe, but the EU free trade agreement, even as it's signed, was almost wholly negotiated by the Yanukovych government.

The Opposition party basically ran a campaign of protecting regional interests (and their own well established patronage networks), as opposed to anything based on blatant vassalization to Russia.

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Old Yesterday, 04:43 AM   #851
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I'm actually mildly shocked at the sheer ballsy-ness of that as a total and complete betrayal of our previous policy viz. Ukraine and Russia.

But you're right, I'm not shocked at it existing, it just continues to confirm my suspicions that Trump was coopted by Russia. This looks like it could have been the short term Quid for Russia's election-meddling Quo.
Honestly, I'm not shocked but am shocked that it existed in the first place.
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