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Old 04-22-2017, 08:59 PM   #41
Oment
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Not that Labour is in a good spot, but the Tory gain in this poll simply cannot mathematically be explained by Labour losses. UKIP lost as much as Labour did, while it is implied that SNP and Greens (and maybe Plaid Cymru) also lose ground with a grand total of 7 % of the lot (compared to just over 12 % now, though that includes the Northern Irish parties.). Could be polling simplification, could be indicative, could be a bad poll. Myriad possibilities, really. I think we've all learned from last year that one poll hardly makes or breaks something.
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Last edited by Oment; 04-23-2017 at 08:09 AM. Reason: 3am is not a good time for making clear posts.
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Old 04-22-2017, 11:31 PM   #42
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Oment View Post
Not that Labour is in a good spot, but the Tory gain simply cannot mathematically be explained by Labour losses. UKIP lost as much as Labour did, while it is implied that SNP and Greens (and maybe Plaid Cymru) also lose ground with a grand total of 7 % of the lot (compared to just over 12 % now). Could be polling simplification, could be indicative, could be a bad poll. Myriad possibilities, really. I think we've all learned from last year that one poll hardly makes or breaks something.
A drop in the 'undecideds', perhaps.

British election polling is notoriously bad, however.
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Old 04-23-2017, 02:52 AM   #43
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Remember the turnout at the EU referendum was much higher than at a General Election and that it was largely the pro-Leave people who increased their turnout. Theresa May is repeatedly framing the election as a chance to reaffirm the referendum result and ensure a "good Brexit". She may make a lot of gains among pro-Leave voters who don't normally vote in elections.
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Old 04-23-2017, 08:07 AM   #44
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A drop in the 'undecideds', perhaps.

British election polling is notoriously bad, however.
Undecided is kind of irrelevant when the comparison I was making was with the 2015 Election.

Turns out it's probably an outlier. Here's the aggregate:



A tad better for anyone not-Tory, but still well within the realms of "We're fucked" exclamations for them. Am admittedly a tad surprised UKIP still polls ~10 %, but that 10 % is probably not going to amount to much anyway...

I'd really like to see a seat projection rather than these percentages, but with 650 constituencies (or thereabouts), I imagine that'd be a nightmare to create.
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Old 04-23-2017, 08:43 AM   #45
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Tories in Scotland are polling in numbers not seen in decades. As expected, Unionists are promptly dumping Labour for them. Oh boy.

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/

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Panelbase/S Times – SNP 44%(-6), CON 33%(+18), LAB 13%(-11), LDEM 5%(-3)
Survation/S Post – SNP 43%(-7), CON 28%(+13), LAB 18%(-6), LDEM 9%(+1)
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Old Yesterday, 06:35 AM   #46
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Tories in Scotland are polling in numbers not seen in decades. As expected, Unionists are promptly dumping Labour for them. Oh boy.

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/
Doesn't matter. There's only, as I recall, 7 seats in Scotland that are within a 10% margin. One of those is the existing Tory seat, which they risk losing, and only one of the others has the Tory party in second place.

People consistently underestimate exactly how loathed the Tory Party is here. There's a lot of folk that may actually like Tory policies, but wouldn't vote Tory because its the Tory party. And there is a significant social stigma to voting Tory.

Because of FPTP polling is less relevant. Will we see an increase in the Tory share of the vote in Scotland, yes. Will we see them get more seats? I highly doubt it.

And the same I think will hold true across the UK. Labour has already lost most of their non-ultra safe seats. Simply because of FPTP there are probably only a fairly small number more at risk of being lost.
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Old Yesterday, 08:02 AM   #47
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Doesn't matter. There's only, as I recall, 7 seats in Scotland that are within a 10% margin. One of those is the existing Tory seat, which they risk losing, and only one of the others has the Tory party in second place.

People consistently underestimate exactly how loathed the Tory Party is here. There's a lot of folk that may actually like Tory policies, but wouldn't vote Tory because its the Tory party. And there is a significant social stigma to voting Tory.

Because of FPTP polling is less relevant. Will we see an increase in the Tory share of the vote in Scotland, yes. Will we see them get more seats? I highly doubt it.

And the same I think will hold true across the UK. Labour has already lost most of their non-ultra safe seats. Simply because of FPTP there are probably only a fairly small number more at risk of being lost.
There was a lot of social stigma voting Le Pen and Trump. People still did it. Labour suicide also made Tories the de facto Union party, so that's bound to get them a boost. Tories are also polling ahead of Labour in freaking Wales. And someone told me that for the last four elections the polls always underestimated Tories in favour of Labour.

SNP has only down to go now, so... we will see. But this 'oh the Tories are hated, no one is voting for them despite polls and all showing otherwise' isn't a fact tbh, it's gut feeling.
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Old Yesterday, 10:25 AM   #48
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Originally Posted by Invictus View Post
There was a lot of social stigma voting Le Pen and Trump. People still did it. Labour suicide also made Tories the de facto Union party, so that's bound to get them a boost. Tories are also polling ahead of Labour in freaking Wales. And someone told me that for the last four elections the polls always underestimated Tories in favour of Labour.

SNP has only down to go now, so... we will see. But this 'oh the Tories are hated, no one is voting for them despite polls and all showing otherwise' isn't a fact tbh, it's gut feeling.
Only if preserving the Union is perceived as being more important than the possible fallout from Brexit.

For Scotland, bailing from Brexit might require bailing from the UK, which would make SNP the obvious choice. Wales is a very different place with a different dynamic.
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Old Yesterday, 11:44 AM   #49
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Originally Posted by Invictus View Post
There was a lot of social stigma voting Le Pen and Trump. People still did it. Labour suicide also made Tories the de facto Union party, so that's bound to get them a boost. Tories are also polling ahead of Labour in freaking Wales. And someone told me that for the last four elections the polls always underestimated Tories in favour of Labour.

SNP has only down to go now, so... we will see. But this 'oh the Tories are hated, no one is voting for them despite polls and all showing otherwise' isn't a fact tbh, it's gut feeling.
Academically it might sound the same, but its totally different on the ground. The Tories aren't new, they aren't anti-establishment, they don't stand for change. What they are is the party that destroyed the working class, that has used Scotland as their whipping boy every time they've gotten into power in the last 50 or so years. They are actively loathed by a huge cross section of society.

I'm not saying that no one is voting for them, I'm saying that not enough folk are willing to vote for them (even if they agree with their politics) to make a difference to final outcome. 7 seats are within the 10% margin, I can't see a swing of larger than 10% in any individual constituency. If all 7 swing, the Lib Dems pick up a few seats, Labour get a couple, the SNP keep one, and the Tories lose one and get one.

National polls are pretty meaningless because of FPTP, you'd have to poll individual constituencies to get any relevant results.
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