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Old 07-11-2017, 09:31 PM   #201
Darth_Revan
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Originally Posted by Innomine View Post
Actions matter, not words. Where there is smoke, there is fire, but do you counter the smoke or the fire?

The game here isn't whether he's done bad things or not, that is without question, the victory comes when you can convince his supporters that he is not fit for purpose. Let's not forget, this man was elected the President of the United States legitimately. And much of the outrage over his past came out prior to the election. The very definition of stupidity is to keep doing the same thing and hope for a different result.
So it's not his words that matter, but his actions, but his actions don't matter? Get your story straight.

I don't have to convince his base, I have to convince swing voters. And these things matter to them.

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I mean. You can try to look at the recent election record. That could be an indicative of what (isn't) working and try to focus on what people care about. Or you can keep ignoring the pleb's opinion which you so candidly dismiss all the time. Can't imagine that backfiring in a democracy.
The Dems won 5 for 5 in special elections after Obama was elected and still got creamed in 2010, so that means less than it looks like.

I'd point out that when it comes to impeachment, it's Congressmen and Senators who I'm trying to convince. Still, I take your point. The healthcare issue is one worth pushing because if the GOP continues along this path, maybe it will help win some seats. The VA and NJ races this year will be a good test case.
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Old 07-11-2017, 09:40 PM   #202
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Originally Posted by Darth_Revan View Post
The Dems won 5 for 5 in special elections after Obama was elected and still got creamed in 2010, so that means less than it looks like.

I'd point out that when it comes to impeachment, it's Congressmen and Senators who I'm trying to convince. Still, I take your point. The healthcare issue is one worth pushing because if the GOP continues along this path, maybe it will help win some seats. The VA and NJ races this year will be a good test case.
It's still 4-1 and lots of money wasted for no little concrete gains. And just like with Clinton, no way Congress gonna impeach him without really good reason or being completely taken over. Make the Russian problem a partisan one or viewed through that and... Well. You know. So I would advise wait and see and give GOP some credit, even if the bare minimum.
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Old 07-11-2017, 11:03 PM   #203
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Darth_Revan View Post
So it's not his words that matter, but his actions, but his actions don't matter? Get your story straight.

I don't have to convince his base, I have to convince swing voters. And these things matter to them.
And how's that working out for you?

The point is, you've been crying wolf since he announced his bid for the presidency. You've kept crying wolf since he was elected. And now that the wolf is here, no one's paying attention as it's just the same old shit day after day (When I say 'you' here, I mean the liberal US strategy in general, not you specifically).

At this stage the argument becomes circular. There is no one easy answer here, the situation changes, and you have to keep changing with it or be left behind. Right now you are simply doing the same shit repeatedly and hoping that it randomly starts working.
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Old 07-11-2017, 11:10 PM   #204
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Originally Posted by Innomine View Post
The point is, you've been crying wolf since he announced his bid for the presidency. You've kept crying wolf since he was elected. And now that the wolf is here, no one's paying attention as it's just the same old shit day after day.
Yea, well, we were right, weren't we?

I've heard your objections. We disagree on what must be done. That's the end of it.
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Old 07-11-2017, 11:23 PM   #205
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Darth_Revan View Post
Yea, well, we were right, weren't we?

I've heard your objections. We disagree on what must be done. That's the end of it.
You have the cold comfort of being right, but still failing.

Fair enough on your second point though, agree to disagree.
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Old 07-12-2017, 12:23 AM   #206
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Yea, well, we were right, weren't we?

I've heard your objections. We disagree on what must be done. That's the end of it.
So, the 100,000th time somebody tells you about starving children in Africa, is that the point at which you start caring and pony up money? Or the first time, when you can really muster up some outrage?

Yes, I'm making an analogy on how to drum up support for a cause.

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Old 07-12-2017, 12:34 AM   #207
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So, the 100,000th time somebody tells you about starving children in Africa, is that the point at which you start caring and pony up money? Or the first time, when you can really muster up some outrage?

Yes, I'm making an analogy on how to drum up support for a cause.
Remember that earthquake in Peru a few years ago?

No, you don't, because people stopped talking about it.

(See? I can make stupid disaster analogies, too.)
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Old 07-12-2017, 12:40 AM   #208
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Originally Posted by Darth_Revan View Post
Remember that earthquake in Peru a few years ago?

No, you don't, because people stopped talking about it.

(See? I can make stupid disaster analogies, too.)
No. You're just being stupid. As in. Incredibly fucking stupid. If you think starvation in Africa is generated by continuous natural disasters instead of corruption, violence and fucking horrible land management, then you're a complete moron. I don't even have words to how imbecilic this comparison you just did is.

Worse, unless there are daily earthquakes in Peru, caused by human beings, then no, your analogy isn't an analogy. It's just a systematic failure on all levels of understanding the things you're comparing.
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Old 07-12-2017, 12:42 AM   #209
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Remember that earthquake in Peru a few years ago?

No, you don't, because people stopped talking about it.

(See? I can make stupid disaster analogies, too.)
So Trump is a natural disaster that everybody will forget in a few years when everybody stops talking about him. Makes sense. Hope it brings you comfort.

Meanwhile, it might surprise you to know that politics is not in fact a natural disaster. Just like children starving in Africa is not a natural disaster, but a matter of corruption and poor governance, which can be fixed. Just like Trump. If you stopped to think for a moment, rather than be continuously outraged.

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Old 07-12-2017, 01:50 AM   #210
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Eh, arguments done guys. He's admitted he can't refute what we say but is going to just stick his head in the sand. Continuing it is just going to devolve into name calling (ie, Invictus' natural mode of existence).
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Old 07-12-2017, 03:27 AM   #211
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Post more news of the Trumperium, guys.

Here, I've one for you.
Kushner is such a pain in the ass, Trump may have to get a new legal team.

Choice disturbing quote.

Quote:
“This is the EXACT reason they viciously attack our family!” Eric Trump, the president’s second-oldest son, posted on Twitter. “They can’t stand that we are extremely close and will ALWAYS support each other.”

Creepy as fuuuuuck.
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Old 07-12-2017, 06:03 AM   #212
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Donald Trump's base is shrinking (538)

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A widely held tenet of the current conventional wisdom is that while President Trump might not be popular overall, he has a high floor on his support. Trump’s sizable and enthusiastic base — perhaps 35 to 40 percent of the country — won’t abandon him any time soon, the theory goes, and they don’t necessarily care about some of the controversies that the “mainstream media” treats as game-changing developments.

...

But the theory isn’t supported by the evidence. To the contrary, Trump’s base seems to be eroding. There’s been a considerable decline in the number of Americans who strongly approve of Trump, from a peak of around 30 percent in February to just 21 or 22 percent of the electorate now. (The decline in Trump’s strong approval ratings is larger than the overall decline in his approval ratings, in fact.) Far from having unconditional love from his base, Trump has already lost almost a third of his strong support. And voters who strongly disapprove of Trump outnumber those who strongly approve of him by about a 2-to-1 ratio, which could presage an “enthusiasm gap” that works against Trump at the midterms. The data suggests, in particular, that the GOP’s initial attempt (and failure) in March to pass its unpopular health care bill may have cost Trump with his core supporters.
To clarify: this is not news, it's an old article. But I think it's relevant to bring up now, because there's some misconceptions here about the success/failure of certain strategies.

Which is not to say that they are working perfectly. I think there are criticisms that can be made of the Democrat/Moderate Republican approach since November. But I think the foundations those are laid on are important.

Trump is not an invincible juggernaut. His popularity has slipped, both generally and amongst his base. He's not impeachment-level unpopular (although it's arguable that Nixon wasn't either, and that in today's era he wouldn't have gone when he did) but, broadly, I disagree with this:

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I completely agree. But the fact of the matter is, it's turned into a war of attrition, one that we are losing. What matters more, reality or perception? Ultimately, it's perception that determines reality, as if people perceive this as less than it is, then how is it not damaging?

This is the crux of where I fundamentally disagree with what you and Banta have been saying. It doesn't matter how right you are if you still fail.
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Old 07-12-2017, 07:05 AM   #213
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Trump is only going to get impeached (or do a Nixonian resignation) if a sizable minority of GOP Senators decides that enough is enough, on top of a probable Dem House (or so close that individual defections matter.) Given past years, past impeachment attempts, and the current state of polarisation in the US, I'd say this will probably be about five minutes before the heat death of the universe. Maybe twenty minutes prior if the Dems somehow hold on to every single Senate Seat and pick up the House with a decent majority.

Trump is here to stay. Anyone thinking differently, well, I've had my say on that before. The US elected him, and sadly, the whole world has to deal with the consequences.

Invictus, while you are correct in that no special elections have flipped, your analysis of 'no won seats, gg no re' is superficial and fails to respect swings. SC-5 swung 8.5 %, GA-6 10 %, M-At large 4.7 %, KS-4 12 %, all GOP to Dem, all respective to the 2016 House elections. It is similar in 2010 (which I am using because it is post ACA-enactment, which was probably a good part of the Dem loss in November of that year) in reverse, with PA-12 swinging ~5 %, FL-19 swinging ~6 %, and HI-1 swinging 20 %, Dem to GOP. Normally, these three results, too, should have had no effect on the composition of the House, except HI-1 saw some colossal incompetence from the Dem candidates in that neither dropped out.

If you're missing two special elections in there, that's correct, but mono-party elections are kind of irrelevant.

That having been said, I don't particularly like prognosticating from afar. This time next year, we might have more information about how it's looking to shape up once we know who is running where and so on and so forth, on top of less time for things to go pear-shaped on whatever topic you want to think of (i.e. more reliable confidence intervals.).
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Old 07-12-2017, 08:45 AM   #214
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Honestly I feel this Don Jr story would be a bigger deal with the public if every story the last 20 years wasn't treated like the next Watergate. I mean for gods sake CNN has a "breaking news" alert every 30 minutes. I can understand why people have grown apathetic to scandal. This is why whenever I talk to friends about the news I always tell them to just stick to their local papers and don't pay attention to TV news or the national papers. Everything they need to know will be talked about in a local newspaper.

As for the story itself I don't think it's gonna make a difference in the immediate sense. If there's something there Mueller will find it and we'll know over the next few years.
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Old 07-12-2017, 10:13 AM   #215
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So am I understanding this basic timeline correctly?

June 3rd - E-mails to schedule a meeting about dirt on Clinton.

June 7th - Trump gives a speech where he talks about discussing "all the things that have taken place with the Clintons."

June 9th - Meeting happens. Supposedly the meeting didn't contain the dirt they wanted?

June 13th - Trump doesn't follow through on the whole "Clinton" thing and gives out no new information.
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Old 07-12-2017, 12:46 PM   #216
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I completely agree. But the fact of the matter is, it's turned into a war of attrition, one that we are losing.
I disagree on this because this isn't a war we are losing. All the pieces matter. Every bit of information that is actionable that's been coming out over the last six months (and before) is helping build the case about Trump to the public. I doubt Trump's base will be convinced, but they are not the ones who we need to convince. Swing voters and Republican voters who picked Trump because he wasn't Hillary are, and we have evidence (the margins in the special elections compared to the general last year and previous Congressional elections) that it is working.

Congress also matters: what brought Nixon down wasn't just the tapes, it was Republican legislators telling him they couldn't support him anymore. Congress isn't there, but it's getting closer by the day as more of their voters are convinced.

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Old 07-12-2017, 05:36 PM   #217
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Congress also matters: what brought Nixon down wasn't just the tapes, it was Republican legislators telling him they couldn't support him anymore. Congress isn't there, but it's getting closer by the day as more of their voters are convinced.
Which becomes very relevant when even if your constituents don't care about Russia (and given the whole undermining of democracy, they definitely should, but whatever), they do care about Trump promising everything, from health care to infrastructure spending to the wall and the pony that won't get over it. And the longer that the Republicans can't push a legislative agenda with majorities in both houses (along with the consistent drip of blatant corruption and bad optics), the more diehard Trump voters will look reluctant.

It's why McConnell's trying to take advantage of the chaos and push a new bill out tomorrow, with CBO score by Monday and a vote that same week. Thus far whenever he's tried this level of secrecy it's backfired because of stronger mobilization (turns out people give a shit about their health care), so we'll see if that continues.
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Old 07-12-2017, 07:09 PM   #218
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A short word, for those following the news in re Donald Trump Jr., on the exact meaning of the charge of 'treason', and why you should be cautious not to use it without just cause:

Title 18 U.S. Code § 2381 states:

Quote:
Originally Posted by 18 USC 2381
Whoever, owing allegiance to the United States, levies war against them or adheres to their enemies, giving them aid and comfort within the United States or elsewhere, is guilty of treason and shall suffer death, or shall be imprisoned not less than five years and fined under this title but not less than $10,000; and shall be incapable of holding any office under the United States.
I have heard a lot of people in the news and on social media throwing this around with respect to the current state of our knowledge about DTJr's meeting with a Russian government-affiliated lawyer. As yet, however, (public) evidence does not yet exist to suggest that DTJr 'adhered to our enemy' (meaning, loyalty to an enemy) or 'gave them aid and comfort' (help of whatever sort).

I stress 'as yet'.

In the meantime, that is NOT to say that DTJr could not be guilty of a slew of other charges about said meeting (namely conspiracy to commit campaign finance violations and conspiracy to pervert the course of an election, among others).

But we should be cautious to be accurate in our speech, lest we run afoul of the truth and lessen our credibility.
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Old 07-12-2017, 08:32 PM   #219
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But we should be cautious to be accurate in our speech, lest we run afoul of the truth and lessen our credibility.
I also read some commentary pointing out that some of the specific statutes behind the crimes that some people have accused Trump of are complicated, untested, and not well known. And politically a prosecutor is going to want to bring charges that are extremely solid and well thought out if they go after Trump. So there's a good chance that people may be more interested in impeaching Trump over normal things like perjury or obstruction of justice related to an investigation rather than something more exotic like collusion.
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Old 07-12-2017, 08:51 PM   #220
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I also read some commentary pointing out that some of the specific statutes behind the crimes that some people have accused Trump of are complicated, untested, and not well known. And politically a prosecutor is going to want to bring charges that are extremely solid and well thought out if they go after Trump. So there's a good chance that people may be more interested in impeaching Trump over normal things like perjury or obstruction of justice related to an investigation rather than something more exotic like collusion.
That's true, but I would stress to you the idea that impeachment doesn't actually have to be about things that are in the criminal code. The Constitution (unhelpfully) says 'high crimes and misdemeanors', but never actually bothers to tell us what those are. So the House, technically, can deliver articles of impeachment about...whatever they want.

Also, it would be the House who would have to vote to impeach, it wouldn't be prosecuted by the DOJ (although Mueller would likely be in a position to make a public recommendation to the House), and the Senate would have to convict (affirm the impeachment) before any criminal charges could ever be brought in Federal court. This is because it is (under our current understanding) not possible to indict a sitting president.

So there's some really woolly subtlety there.
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