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Old 08-01-2016, 01:59 AM   #3621
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Mike Pence Says Roe v. Wade Will Be Overturned If Trump Is Elected
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Old 08-01-2016, 02:15 AM   #3622
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...They are NEVER gonna let this issue die are they?

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Old 08-01-2016, 04:19 AM   #3623
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The only reason why Pence doesn't seem like a Palin-esque nutjob is because he's standing next to the racist, homophobic, Islamophobic, intractable, self-aggrandising, *and* fraudulent dumpster fire known as Donald Trump. Whenever people say that Pence is as responsible/non-controversial as Tim Kaine, I facepalm.
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Old 08-01-2016, 04:28 AM   #3624
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My impression is that those that aren't bothered by Trump, and those that vote Republican, are the same to a large degree. The greater the overlap is, the better it is, as it means Trump isn't expanding his base.
I'm sure they overlap in parts, but that isn't the point. You know as well as I do that populism resonates in the poorer areas of the country - areas that might have been blue in previous elections, or featured large portions of voters who didn't vote because they didn't care anyway. Trump may well lose more pragmatically-inclined Republicans to Clinton, or dedicated small government voters to Johnson, sure. We've seen him struggle with more affluent Republicans in crucial battlegrounds, true. However, if Trump can energise this base effectively - and I'm arguing that his schtick does so almost naturally - then it poses problems, and not just now.

You pejoratively call them the nuttier nutjobs, but do you honestly think that all of them will just vanish or go back to the Democratic Party after Trump is defeated? That politics returns to the status quo of the proverbial ivory towers and partisan grumbling, not partisan hatred? Again, some of them might, but imagine for a second a populist politician who actually has a partially functioning brain-mouth filter. A politician without the billionaire ballast Trump carries with him, like the bankruptcies and more ongoing lawsuits than he had primary opponents. This imaginary person has now seen that there is this undercurrent of resentment, and they know it is possible to tap into it in the US, just as Europe is proving over and over again for the last half a decade. They might well refine Trump's strategy, and if they can hitch their name to a party - currently the GOP, who opened the door to this with their lip service to conspiracy cooks re: Obama - then it's possible for America to actually get a strong(wo)man ruler.

It's not just Trump. It's everyone following in his footsteps; the shadows yet unnoticed. It's not just this November. It's this general election, and the next few, and all the local elections in between. It's not just the US, it's most of Europe as well.

And if I sound just a mite afraid and maybe even engaging in scaremongering, then you'd be right to have read it that way. I already resent current political trends that tend to not look ahead all that much. The world cannot afford to sleep on several issues, and I am deeply afraid that further moves towards Trump's brand of reactionary populism will do just that, to the detriment of all.
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Old 08-01-2016, 05:59 AM   #3625
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This should be putting Trump into pretty uninhabitable waters, Wikileaks on the other hand is saying that they have emails of Hilary arming Jihadists in Syria.
I'm curious when Assange's posting of hacked material submitted from the Russian government suddenly became the final arbiter of truth. I mean, plaintext email would be so difficult to forge in order to frame things just so and influence the election. It's not like there'd be any incentive for Putin's government to do so, right?
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Old 08-01-2016, 07:21 AM   #3626
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@Oment: But how is that not the point? That's exactly what it's about, it's a simple numbers game. They are there, yes, but how many of them are there, and how many would vote Republican regardless, even if the candidate wasn't Trump? Relevant are only those that would vote Democrat and now flip. And the old party lines being what they were, I don't see too many liberals interested in shouting strongmen.

You see this also when you compare campaign styles, debates and so on of Republicans vs. Democrats in the primaries. They were tailored to their audiences, that is, gloom and doom for the Republicans, with inner security as the main theme, and what did Democrats talk about? Climate change, gender pay gap, LGBT rights? The group you describe is a sub-group of Republican voters that turned out just enough to propel Trump to victory in a divided Republican field. There was every chance for the establishment to win this, had they rallied around one clear candidate early enough and not disregarded Trump as a bad reality TV joke.

But as it stands, I don't see how that group can be nearly enough to do the same in a general election. They are a fringe minority for now, and let's be happy about that. The task now is to ensure that group doesn't grow. Don't fall into the trap of buying what Trump is selling. From everything I can see, America is far closer to the Democrat reality of the world than his.
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Old 08-01-2016, 08:27 AM   #3627
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@Oment: But how is that not the point? That's exactly what it's about, it's a simple numbers game. They are there, yes, but how many of them are there, and how many would vote Republican regardless, even if the candidate wasn't Trump? Relevant are only those that would vote Democrat and now flip.
Disagree with the last line. This group is a bigger flip for Trump (swing of 2 per voter), but I'm arguing, apparently ineffectively, that it isn't just these voters that Trump (can) attract(s). It's those who do/did not vote due to being disaffected by the system, and there's a lot of room for those voters as well, the turnout in US elections being as low as it is. These have the potential to be not-insignificant numbers.

Though I will admit that some of the data I just checked was less alarming than I thought. Numbers vary, but it seems that the general number of voters in the GOP primary who hadn't voted R in previous elections was around 5-6 %. Not as big, but also not inconsequential, I'd argue.
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And the old party lines being what they were, I don't see too many liberals interested in shouting strongmen.
Blue collar areas that have traditionally been Democratic (due to unions and the Dems being the more working class party) are where Trump is expected to make gains comparatively, just a reminder. Given where exactly these areas are (OH and PA have a fair amount of them), it's a decently important group for the Dems to actually try to keep a hold of.

The situations are far removed from one another, but I do think the Democratic Party should keep an eye out for what happened/is happening to Labour, who are having issues retaining their traditional low SES voters.

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There was every chance for the establishment to win this, had they rallied around one clear candidate early enough and not disregarded Trump as a bad reality TV joke.
Yes, and now let's not make that same mistake again. I reiterate: perhaps I'm being fearful (arguably alarmist), but now is not the time to be complacent.

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But as it stands, I don't see how that group can be nearly enough to do the same in a general election. They are a fringe minority for now, and let's be happy about that. The task now is to ensure that group doesn't grow. Don't fall into the trap of buying what Trump is selling.
Which is why I argued Clinton needs to go in hard and fast before Trump blunders into momentum. Disrupt him so that, while he will continue to say Trump Things (because he does that), people will think twice about actually supporting him.
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Old 08-01-2016, 09:03 AM   #3628
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I'm curious when Assange's posting of hacked material submitted from the Russian government suddenly became the final arbiter of truth. I mean, plaintext email would be so difficult to forge in order to frame things just so and influence the election. It's not like there'd be any incentive for Putin's government to do so, right?
I'm curious when a party's go to method of denying something from happening is to say that Russia hacked them, suddenly calls into question the integrity of the leaks.

Certainly question the political motivation behind them, it does seem out of place that 10 years into the organisations existence is now a good time to question the accuracy of the submitted documents.

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Old 08-01-2016, 10:39 AM   #3629
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The only thing surprising about arming Syrian rebels would be that state was taking the lead rather than the DoD or CIA. I'm not even sure what the scandal is about.
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Old 08-01-2016, 10:43 AM   #3630
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Not so much scandal but bad optics again. Fucking around in the Middle East, didn't "win", people are sick of stuff like this. Like it or not, America has become a lot more isolationist.
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Old 08-01-2016, 12:05 PM   #3631
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I'm curious when Assange's posting of hacked material submitted from the Russian government suddenly became the final arbiter of truth. I mean, plaintext email would be so difficult to forge in order to frame things just so and influence the election. It's not like there'd be any incentive for Putin's government to do so, right?
It is possible that either the Russians have duped Assange, or Assange is outright lying and making things up. But, given the Democratic party's response to these email hacks, I'm inclined to believe that they are probably true. Arming insurgencies and setting up proxy wars is how the U.S. operates in the middle east. We've got a long tradition of these sorts of arms deals. Syria was also a pet project of Clinton's while she was in State.

Put all those together and it isn't that surprising that Clinton worked or was complicit in arming insurgents. With how fucked up that region is right now, it isn't surprising that some of those insurgents later turned out to be ISIS.

I would hope that people will take this story and start realizing the tragedy of Syria and Clinton's involvement with it. But I've already seen articles on this subject trying to resurrect Benghazi again, so probably not. Just another few days of a worthless issue in the news cycle.
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Old 08-01-2016, 12:29 PM   #3632
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The only reason why Pence doesn't seem like a Palin-esque nutjob is because he's standing next to the racist, homophobic, Islamophobic, intractable, self-aggrandising, *and* fraudulent dumpster fire known as Donald Trump. Whenever people say that Pence is as responsible/non-controversial as Tim Kaine, I facepalm.

Pence supported conversion therapy at one point, and might still - I doubt someone that thinks that's a good idea at any time is someone whose belief system changes much. I'm not sure Palin would have gone that far, even.
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Old 08-01-2016, 12:54 PM   #3633
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I'm curious when a party's go to method of denying something from happening is to say that Russia hacked them, suddenly calls into question the integrity of the leaks.

Certainly question the political motivation behind them, it does seem out of place that 10 years into the organisations existence is now a good time to question the accuracy of the submitted documents.
I didn't realize that the U.S. government including the FBI are synonymous with the Democratic Party. You learn something new every day.
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Old 08-01-2016, 02:34 PM   #3634
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I didn't realize that the U.S. government including the FBI are synonymous with the Democratic Party. You learn something new every day.
I think I'm missing something here. Where did he confuse the government with the dem party? Or, is it part of the background conversation concerning the leaks that I'm not aware of since I'm haven't really looked into it?

-- @kinetique: on the other hand—who are you referring to with "ten years into the organization's existence?" The DNC has been around much longer than that. If you're referring to the leaked info, or the organization that reported it, their reputation has nothing to do with whether someone wrote a well-forged set of emails.

I doubt it forged myself, but depending on the rep of the organization (if it's wikileaks or the reporting organization) has is a weak argument, unless your making the case they're also adept at deciphering forged from authentic leaks
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Old 08-01-2016, 02:39 PM   #3635
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It is possible that either the Russians have duped Assange, or Assange is outright lying and making things up. But, given the Democratic party's response to these email hacks, I'm inclined to believe that they are probably true. Arming insurgencies and setting up proxy wars is how the U.S. operates in the middle east. We've got a long tradition of these sorts of arms deals. Syria was also a pet project of Clinton's while she was in State.

Put all those together and it isn't that surprising that Clinton worked or was complicit in arming insurgents. With how fucked up that region is right now, it isn't surprising that some of those insurgents later turned out to be ISIS.

I would hope that people will take this story and start realizing the tragedy of Syria and Clinton's involvement with it. But I've already seen articles on this subject trying to resurrect Benghazi again, so probably not. Just another few days of a worthless issue in the news cycle.
Have to agree with this. Given what a mess Syria is, it was inevitable that aiding the rebels would involve some aid going to the wrong people. It's not like this would be the first time the US aided a group in the Middle East that eventually wound up turning on them.

But in the middle of an election ... yeah "Hillary gave guns to ISIS" is the sort of soundbite Trump is going to love to repeat over and over. And one that's going to play well with his target audience.
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Old 08-01-2016, 06:14 PM   #3636
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I think I'm missing something here. Where did he confuse the government with the dem party? Or, is it part of the background conversation concerning the leaks that I'm not aware of since I'm haven't really looked into it?
...
When he said that the party was blaming Russia.
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Old 08-01-2016, 06:50 PM   #3637
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...on the other hand—who are you referring to with "ten years into the organization's existence?" The DNC has been around much longer than that. If you're referring to the leaked info, or the organization that reported it, their reputation has nothing to do with whether someone wrote a well-forged set of emails.

I doubt it forged myself, but depending on the rep of the organization (if it's wikileaks or the reporting organization) has is a weak argument, unless your making the case they're also adept at deciphering forged from authentic leaks
He was referring to WikiLeaks, they're about 10 years old.

As for the leaks themselves, the Russia connection is near-certain. I've never heard an assessment reported to the media so quickly and with such a high confidence level before. The danger here is that the Russians might start to engage in spoofing, i.e. targeted misinformation buried within legitimate information to grant it the veneer of veracity.

The initial leak did moderate political damage, and since the DNC hasn't come out to categorically deny it's true, that means it's more than likely completely true. Now that the leaks have gained an air of legitimacy, it would not be out of the question for the leakers to insert false information into new leaks, or selectively edit items they leak, to cause much greater damage.

As @Chengar Qordath said, I could easily imagine the Russians deliberately editing a reference to arming rebel groups in Syria to insert the name of an enemy group (like al-Nusrah Front), so that they could then accuse the US of arming the enemy, failed policy, etc. etc.

Basically, after the first tranche, trust NOTHING.
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Old 08-01-2016, 07:24 PM   #3638
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I didn't realize that the U.S. government including the FBI are synonymous with the Democratic Party. You learn something new every day.
I wasn't talking about the U.S government at all.
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Old 08-01-2016, 07:43 PM   #3639
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So we've been discussing the polls a bit, and today's polling numbers have led to fairly shocking changes in the 538 polling indices. On the Polls-Plus map, the most conservative, 5 states have moved from pale red to pale blue, and the same can be said for the Polls-Only forecast. Now-Cast also has North Carolina moving to blue, but that's hyper-aggressive.

Interestingly, in all three forecasts, North Carolina got a whole lot more competitive and out of the leaning red column immediately following the court decision there.
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Old 08-01-2016, 08:38 PM   #3640
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I want to see the debates. Hillary v Trump on the same stage has the potential to be some of the best comedy ever conceived on this planet.
The only way this could be a comedy is if this wasn't real. The fact that it is real and that Trump really could be the next president of the USA makes this a tragedy.
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