Discussion in 'Politics' started by Dark Belra, Nov 28, 2016.
Well done, France, you didn't fuck it up.
Taking a look at the previous two elections on wikipedia (2007, 20012), they had 4.2% and 3.8% spoil/null rates. So it is quite unusual.
Nationalism Vs. Globalism is going to be the fundamental question of humanity's development for the next 100 years if not longer.
It boils down to having a purpose for the people. Can humanity look past identity politics and formulate a global government? Or are we not yet ready for this?
In the long run, humanity will have to decide if it is possible for us to survive without competition between nation states.
It's not really about the question of global government; such a thing, if it will ever exist, is a long, long way off.
Really, it's a rehashing of some of the oldest themes of political discourse. It's about a deep insecurity that some people feel in their jobs, their societies, their social circles. It's about a fear for their safety from perceived threats from outside of their borders (not unfounded). It's about a fear for their livelihoods as the world changes and leaves them behind. It's about a deep and abiding class resentment of the people who embody globalism, who bet on the right horse and left them in the dust.
I think you're right, though, that the overarching political paradigm right now is about Globalism v. Reactionary Nationalism.
I think global government is a bit much, we're a ways away from that. I'd agree on the nationalism v. globalism though.
EDIT: Ninja'd and said better. So yeah, what Darth_Revan said.
German exit poll:
-9 % CDU/CSU, -5 % SPD, +8 % AfD +6 % FDP, roughly. Exit poll, of course - numbers may change. AfD is apparently overtaking SPD in East Germany.
Most probable coalition is CDU/FDP/Greens - SPD has already said that they want to head into the opposition. This, of course, will probably lead to some interesting coalition talk, but I'm assuming someone actually from Germany will know more about that.
CDU/FDP/Grüne is indeed the only realistic. They question is wether Seehofer (CSU leader) will allow it with his party. He already said his party intends to go further right. All other things are unlikely. No one want to govern with AfD. SPD/Linke/Grüne dont have enough and CDU/FDP/Linke would be funny to see. FDP and Linke would propably kill each other.
Also possible would be the SPD ignoring their promise from today and forming a grand coalition and dying in 2021. CDU/FDP could also try to form a minorty goverment.
All in all I would bet my money on either reelections this year or after 2 years under the Jamaica coalition.
It actually looks like this:
(West-left, east-right) And in Saxony, they won outright. I wonder if we couldn't create an Autonomous Republic of National German-Saxony, and resettle all the lovely blue there :s Possibly we could also sell it to Poland? I'd like Danzig back in return. PiS was resurrecting that dead horse anyway.
On the flip side, fairly happy with my own constituency (and state) -- a pro-infrastructure MP, which annoys me on a daily basis (the roads, not that MP), the LibDems in third place and AfD well below average makes it a reasonable place to live. Has anyone else considered election results as a criterion in case of moving, incidentally? I just got that idea. The pay would have to scale with AfD percentages, at least.
/off to hunt for their worst constituency. (It's probably one of the islands with 20 inhabitants, which means it's good for retirement, not so much for working.)
As far as I can tell, islands aside, the winner is the university town Münster (4.9%), as well as the County of Bentheim, with 5.4% AfD:
Congrats, guys. Your lovely mediaeval castle and the yearly joust just moved to the top of my to-do-list
So apparently, the AfD co-leader Petry quits and will serve as an independent MP. There's also rumours of an actual split of the parliamentary group, with other MPs following Petry. This is a hilarious development and makes this day a better day.
Background: The AfD is two things. One, what it declares itself, a (populist) conservative party. Two, a reactionary nationalist rightwing mob. And apparently, keeping those two wings together is complicated. Whoever knew.
Edit: As an aside, everyone is scratching their heads about the socialist party, whose party leader at 6 o'clock on the dot, with the closing of the polls, put on his campaigning hat and suddenly became convincing. He's been invisible and indistinguishable all these months before. This elections is weird as hell.
Anyone here from Catalan?
I can't imagine many Catalonians being online at the moment. Regardless, this is some real dumb reaction from the Spanish government. It looks horrible for Spain.
I imagine that support for Catalonia has only grown in the past week.
Spaniard, if it serves. On one hand, I have Catalan friends which are very passionate about independence. On the other, where I live the media is rabidly against it.
My personal stance on the issue of the independence of Catalonia is that my life won't change one way or the other, so I am out of fucks to give. Both sides make ridiculous arguments without an iota of logical reasoning behind them and a chilling lack of empathy for the other side (which is a very Spanish trait.) What I've read/heard about Quebec, Scotland or Flanders sounds very similar, old Homo Sapiens going all tribal about inconsequential shit.
Yeah, the massive police violence/voter suppression is a sure-fire way to convince Catalans that the Spanish government is oppressing them, while turning international opinion against Spain. It certainly looks bad compared to Scotland and Quebec just having their referendums, and everything moving along peacefully.
I'm from Barcelona, today was bad.
While regrettable and ugly as fuck, low intensity violence like this happens everyday when the police is ordered to break up a demonstration. Compared to racial protests in the US or violent independence movements, like those in Ireland or the Basque Country at the end of the century, this is pretty lame. I am sure there must have been plenty of scenes like this in Quebec or Scotland.
There were more than 600 people hurt today, i don't know if we can call it "low intensity violence".
Funny, I don't recall the British or Canadian governments closing down polling places and beating anyone who tried to vote...
LOL, beating anyone who tried to vote? Dramatic much? According to the Catalan Autonomous Government, more than 2 million people voted.
Contrary to what happened in Quebec or Scotland, this polling was not negotiated with the Spanish government, so it was deemed illegal according to Spanish Constitution. Catalonia's High Justice Court ordered the police to prevent the polling and close down polling places, mostly public schools. In that sense, one could consider this polling as a sort of protest, and the usual shit happens, whether it involves a particularly truncheon eager policeman or a particularly struggling demonstrator, or both. And as usual, bystanders can get caught in the struggle.
I won't bother looking for incidents during demonstrations in other countries, no time to invest on that point, but I remember a miner union demonstration in Madrid which ended with 70+ injured among demonstrators and policemen.
My point with citing Quebec, Scotland and Flanders, is that Catalonia's case is also "First World Oppression." That is, the "oppressed" have a high standard of life, speak the language they prefer in a mostly bilingual environment, are free to develop their own culture and their, certainly legitimate, grievances, pale in comparison with some of the heavy duty shit we see everyday in the news in other parts of the world.
Again, I want to make clear I am not against Catalonia's right to vote their independence, I just convey my views on the current situation, for whatever that's worth.
ABC is reporting current results of 90% for leave in Catalonia. But some ballot boxes were confiscated, some may or may not have met regulation, and an unknown number of cast ballots were confiscated by Spanish police. Ballots could be printed at home and the way to check the voter roles sounds like it was an ad hoc, last-minute fix to random polling places being closed by national police, which - regardless of actual effect - makes it seem easier than usual for people to cast multiple ballots. And, because the election was unrecognized, there aren't really any observers or other checks on the people counting the votes.
Granted most of that is a direct result of the national government trying to stop the whole thing from happening. They failed at that, but it's done the next best thing for them and put enough real, obvious flaws in the voting to make it easy to cast doubt on the legitimacy of the process. With the appallingly poor manner in which the Spanish national government handled that I wouldn't be entirely shocked if it really was one-sided enough to get a 90%+ result, but the whole thing just looks shaky.
Whatever the reality is, I hope the Spanish national government handles this with markedly more grace and tact than they have thus far. Shit looks like it has the potential to get ugly, and all they've done so far is piss people off and muddy the waters.
90% sounds plausible, because the issue is very polarizing and most voters against independence won't cast their vote, either because they won't dignify what they see as an illegal poll with their participation, or because they are confident no action will be taken whatever the result.
Opinion polls yield results slightly under 50% for independence, out of a 5.3M voters base, so an official referendum would be close. Many people have the feeling that it would go the way of Quebec and Scotland, with the most conservative sectors mobilizing out of fear of change, union winning by a slight margin and tensions remaining in Catalan society for the foreseeable future.
Introducing changes in the Spanish Constitution towards a federal model including a cap on what we call inter-territorial solidarity, which is the main issue of contention here, is an option which is gaining popularity around the whole country. That is, in my opinion, the most likely solution and what the independence movement is actually gunning for. Outright independence would create a precedent that it is unlikely to be tolerated by the EU, in fear it would encourage existing separatist movements in other countries.
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