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The Trumperium 2: Caesar by the Pussy

Discussion in 'Politics' started by Jon, Jun 15, 2017.

  1. fire

    fire High Inquisitor

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    Jon Chait had a good article recently, where he basically argues that the most extreme collusion scenario (i.e. Trump is being blackmailed by the Russians) does seem quite believable in the light of the Stormy Daniels stuff - if Trump pays people $$$ to keep his sexual indiscretions quiet, why wouldn't he be willing to trade favours to the Russians to prevent them from releasing the kompromat?

    Said kompromat needn't be stuff as weird as the pee tape - money laundering is almost certainly the matter at stake, hence Trump's unwillingness to release his tax returns, and stuff like oligarchs paying $95m for a $40m Trump property back in 2008; the latter in particular seems like a pretty egregious textbook case of real estate money laundering
     
  2. pbluekan

    pbluekan Professor DLP Supporter

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    The Russian bots and posters were also pushing Bernie where they could.
     
  3. The Iron Rose

    The Iron Rose Death Eater

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    This is actually my position these days. America is as divided as it's ever been, and while I'll still vote for your standard neoliberal centrist do nothing Dem, I can't very well bitch about leftists and ideological purity while effectively doing exactly the same thing myself. Saying it's doing Putin's job for him is a bit chicken little for my tastes, but it absolutely is.
     
  4. Invictus

    Invictus Fourth Champion

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    http://politi.co/2Ct9uei

    Shocking. I'm sure no one expected Sanders to omit himself when reality shows he isn't as pure as snow. Regardless, it's tragicomic how the Dems also closed ranks and didn't say anything, despite how pumped up they're about it regarding Trump. Not one actual commentary.
     
  5. Xantam

    Xantam Denarii Host

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    And had Bernie won, it would be extremely relevant. Unfortunately for your narrative, that is not the case.
     
  6. Invictus

    Invictus Fourth Champion

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    What narrative is that? I'm curious.

    That he's an hypocrite about it?
    https://www.google.com.br/amp/thehi...e-has-been-clear-to-everyone-except-trump?amp

    https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=10156453945447908&id=9124187907

    Because it's kind hard to argue that.
     
  7. The Iron Rose

    The Iron Rose Death Eater

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    I wasn't really expected to be vindicated in literally the next three posts, but I'll take it I guess.

    Demonizing Sanders for this is ridiculous. The problem for Trump isn't that Russians tried to get him elected, the problem is the alleged collusion and practically comedic exposure to foreign influence. Bernie Sanders is many things, but a traitor he is not.
     
  8. Agayek

    Agayek Alchemist

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    Or at the very least, there's no substantive evidence to support any such claims.

    Sanders is just an idealistic idiot who's had a bit too much of the kool-aid, as far as I can tell. It's rather disingenuous to try and imply he's on the same level as Trump when all he did here was take pot-shots at Trump when it was politically expedient, and clam up when it wasn't.
     
  9. Chengar Qordath

    Chengar Qordath The Final Pony Prestige

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    Exactly this. So far as I'm aware there's zero evidence that he encouraged or worked with the Russians. He certainly didn't have high level campaign staff/members of his family meeting with Russian intelligence or made public statements encouraging them the way Trump did.

    Barring some big new evidence, the most that can be said is that the Russians tried to offer support to Sanders, which he never accepted or did anything to encourage.
     
  10. Invictus

    Invictus Fourth Champion

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    Fair enough, wasn't trying to say they were equals, and didn't actually talk about the collusion charges, just that both enjoyed a both a boost from the same tactics, and while Dems are laying down on GOP about their silent regarding the interference indictments (which they should, even if the collusion charges are much graver, but do notice that Mueller indictment did explicitly said that the Trump campaign had no knowledge of these particular Russians interferring nor was there any collusion in this specific case), but it did come out as generalist and paranoid.
     
  11. Darth_Revan

    Darth_Revan Secret Squirrel Prestige DLP Supporter

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    The point of the indictments was to do three things:

    1. Show the Russians that we know what they did.
    2. Show the Russians the level of access we have to what they did.
    3. Slap down the White House's narrative that the investigation wasn't producing anything on Russia.

    This was not anywhere near to the final word on whether Trump or his campaign did anything untoward. It's actually a mostly unrelated limb of the huge and many-limbed tree that is the Russia Thing.
     
  12. pbluekan

    pbluekan Professor DLP Supporter

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    Next up on the "Russia Thing:"

    Gates is pleading guilty.

    http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-...al&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

    Essentially, the poor schmuck can't afford to pay what his sentence would require if he were found guilty through official court proceedings, nor can he pay the legal fees for such a case.
     
  13. Oment

    Oment The Betrayer

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    The PA Supreme Court has issued a new congressional map, and predictably, the GOP is already challenging it.

    Whatever else you can say about the maps - I have no idea about population diversity and voting spread and the like - the one on the right looks a lot less jagged.
     
  14. Solfege

    Solfege Auror DLP Supporter

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    Compactness is only one of the criteria. You have contiguity, preservation of political subdivisions, preservation of communities of interest, preservation of prior district cores, protection of incumbents, and competitiveness.

    You can do a lot of justifiable tinkering based on your preferred weighing of the above. In this case it's interesting that Persily seems to have effectively defaulted his design path to partisan balancing, when the issue was in doubt, resulting in some rather more compact districts.

    Also. 538 did a nice series on this, but it was noted as early as 2000, certainly when Bush was campaigning. Americans have self-sorted. Residential areas are a lot more mono-red or mono-blue than they were 25 years ago. The gerrymandering is effective on the margins, but self-sorting would seem to be the far stronger explanation (538 gives it 80% of the credit) for why red-blue ratios are what they are today.
     
    Last edited: Feb 20, 2018
  15. Giovanni

    Giovanni God of Scotch

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    The maps that the PA Supreme Court issue were a lot better from pretty much every measure (compactness, partisan balance, keeping communities of interest together where possible.) They made a few concessions for incumbent protection by avoiding the possibility of Member:Member primary elections in all but one district, but frankly that wasn't particularly hard to do. In the process they also fucked quite a few politicians.

    1.) Brendan Boyle (D)

    Reason: They put him in a super liberal majority black district. He is white and his most prominent supporters are the FOP
    and the building trades unions (the latter more or less refuses to let black people join.)

    Likely Outcome: Fucked in the 2020 primary. I take great satisfaction in this. I hate this smug spud-munching motherfucker and would vote for Trump in a heartbeat if he undid birthright citizenship to deport this little cunt back to Ireland with his janitor father.

    2.) Ryan Costello (R)

    Reason: Pour one out for the little homie from Chester. He was supposed to be PA's Chosen One. A moderate from a purple area who could win many statewide elections for the Republican Party once he passed a few inoffensive terms in Congress. All he had to do was win them in Jim Gerlach's old seat. Gerlach himself was once The Chosen One, but he was an asshole with some weird shit in his past so he never advanced. Now Costello will share his fate, but for a different reason.

    Likely Outcome: Loses in 2018. Dems got their top recruit against him, and now the district is a hell of a lot bluer than it already was. I'd say that I'm sorry to see him go, but frankly no representative from PA-06 has actually ever done anything so it's hard to muster much emotion here.

    3.) Matt Cartwright (D)

    Reason: What is justice? For Rep. Cartwright, it's the certain knowledge that he will lose because he is far too liberal for his now R+3 district. Cartwright had plans. He was going to move up in leadership while every last liberal in NEPA got crammed into the district he primaried a (competent, if conservative) Democratic incumbent to get.

    Likely Outcome: Loses in 2020 or, if he somehow manages to survive that year, 2026 if the district keeps it's current form after the next round of redistricting.

    4.) Keith Rothfus R/Conor Lamb (D)

    EDIT: Got this one a bit wrong, misread the lines off of a less zoomed in map and thought it would be Lamb/Doyle. Turns out it's Lamb/Rothfus. I've updated accordingly.

    Reason: Welcome to Thunder Dome. Two men enter, one man becomes a back bencher in Congress.

    Likely Outcome: The primary electorate for this seat is too liberal for Lamb, which means he's going to serve for ten months in Congress if he wins the special election for the district he no longer lives in (against an opponent who doesn't live there either.) Then if he's lucky he'll have the distinction of knocking off two Republicans in one year.

    5.) Brian Fitzpatrick (R)

    Reason: After serial reproducer (dude has like 80 children), and reluctant cancer survivor Mike Fitzpatrick decided to leave Congress (though tragically not the mortal plane) he bequeathed his seat to brother Brian. The lesser of the two politicians, Brian was in the fight of his life. Redistricting just made that a lot harder with the addition of the few blue parts of Northern Montgomery county (Lansdale in particular.)

    Likely Outcome: Challenger dependent, but this seat should go by about 10 in a Democratic wave year or 5 with a challenger who can walk and not molest kids at the same time.

    6.) Scott Perry (R)

    Reason: After spending years being inoffensively racist and crazy, and not having to worry about representing the Democratic parts of his district, internet conspiracy theorist Scott Perry is about to have unlimited time to prove the Las Vegas shooter was actually ISIS, as he's been drawn into a district that's actually winnable for a Democrat.

    Likely Outcome: A strong Democratic candidate can take this seat in a wave year. A Republican like Ryan Costello could hold it indefinitely.
     
    Last edited: Feb 21, 2018
  16. Tenages

    Tenages Unspeakable DLP Supporter DLP Gold Supporter

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    This stable genius's congressional office is located about 10 minutes from my house. I drive by it at least 10-15 times a week as I go about my business. And yet, I've never actually cast a vote for or against him.

    Because due to our previously fucked up map, my congressman lived a hundred miles away in coal cracker country. My current congressman, Sweet Lou Barletta, began his rise to political mediocrity as the mayor of a shitty little once was relevant town, who campaigned on throwing all landlords who rented to illegal immigrants into the clink. I'll be kind of sad to no longer get to vote against Sweet Lou, but the opportunity to vote against a local racist nutjob will be new and fresh.

    I'm goddamn thrilled that this ludicrous map is done and dusted.
     
  17. fire

    fire High Inquisitor

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    @Giovanni

    Is Costello literally losing it or what? Ever since his near miss at the Scalise shooting, he's refused to attend town hall meeting citing "death traps", then collapsed at his local gym after reading about the former being reported(???). Recently he's followed this up by accusing Houlahan of sending people around to intimidate his wife, and now he's leading the calls for impeachment. Costello was always relatively moderate, wasn't he, and not a Fox News Kool-Aid drinker? Did the shooting (metaphorically) destroy his mind and turn his spine into jello?
     
  18. The Iron Rose

    The Iron Rose Death Eater

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    Judging from that paragraph alone, that's pretty much textbook PTSD. So yes, narrowly surviving a shooting probably does cause some mental health issues. Calling that "destroying his mind" or "turning his spine into jello" is insulting and undeserved.

    His behaviour isn't rational, but that's because the man is sick and irrational. He needs treatment and therapy.


    E: wait I'm an idiot. Read the article more carefully and it looks like he wasn't even there. I'm a bit less sympathetic now. Yeah, the near miss probably causes some damage, but this is a little excessive.
     
  19. Mordecai

    Mordecai Drunken Scotsman Prestige DLP Supporter

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    [​IMG]

    Just saw this, and assumed it was fake. But apparently these are actually the notes he took into the meeting with the survivors. The fact that someone had to give him notes on how to act like an empathetic human being is frankly awful.
     
  20. Darth_Revan

    Darth_Revan Secret Squirrel Prestige DLP Supporter

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    What, you're surprised?
     
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