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UK General Election

Discussion in 'Politics' started by Troy, Apr 18, 2017.

  1. ElMarquis

    ElMarquis First Year

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    There's also an independent in NI. Frankly I feel a great deal of sympathy for Guy Fawkes. Now that I've reminded myself, I'm fairly certain that I've seen a story or two with Fawkes and/or Dumbledore, the Ministry and gunpowder...

    ElMarquis.
     
  2. Giovanni

    Giovanni God of Scotch

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    You're right, but that's still a majority too small for what she wants to accomplish, which is get a bill through that satisfies either the right wing terrorists she shacked up or and her Scottish MPs since a bill which satisfies both is impossible.
     
  3. Chengar Qordath

    Chengar Qordath The Final Pony Prestige

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    Not to mention the rest of her party wasn't in lockstep to begin with. As I recall a big part of why she wanted to snap election was to expand her majority so she would have less trouble from her backbenchers.
     
  4. Invictus

    Invictus Prisoner

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  5. Immet

    Immet Seventh Year

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    [incomprehensible screaming]

    ... well, that's a thing. A thing which hugely pisses me off.

    New option: give the Irish seperation from the UK and lose the DUP MPs. Really, are the DUP trying to make large parts of the UK support Irish unification?
     
  6. CareOtters

    CareOtters Headmaster DLP Supporter

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    This election is the gift that keeps on giving. Maybe something inside me is broken, but all the things which should be horrifying are so damn hilarious now.

    Today: unemployment benefits, but only for Tories
     
  7. Oment

    Oment The Betrayer

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    YouGov has put out estimates on turnout and how people voted. For those seeking a scapegoat for this hung parliament, you need look no further than the youth vote, which A) broke for Labour rather decisively and B) rose tremendously since 2015.

    To wit, while comparing directly is a bit hard, the survey estimates that the 18-24 turnout is around 58-59 %. Doesn't sound like a lot, perhaps, but the best I can tell is that youth turnout in previous elections was in the low-mid 40s (!). Minor upswing I'd say.
     
  8. Darth_Revan

    Darth_Revan Secret Squirrel Prestige DLP Supporter

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    Tim Farron resigned as leader of the LibDems, the first scalp of the post-election evaluation and reorganization.
     
  9. wolf550e

    wolf550e High Inquisitor DLP Supporter

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  10. Invictus

    Invictus Prisoner

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    Last edited: Jun 16, 2017
  11. Darth_Revan

    Darth_Revan Secret Squirrel Prestige DLP Supporter

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  12. Darth_Revan

    Darth_Revan Secret Squirrel Prestige DLP Supporter

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    On election night, commentators in the British media said that the vitality of May's attempt at forming a minority Government was contingent on passing a Queen's Speech. But the Telegraph is reporting that May has cancelled the planned Queen's Speech. So what does this mean for the survival of the Conservatives' minority Government?
     
  13. Innomine

    Innomine Auror Prestige DLP Supporter

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    What I want to know is, what are the chances of the UK having another general election before the 5 years is up? I know that a hung parliament in FPP governments are generally unstable, and this one certainly isn't breaking that pattern.

    But if it was to happen, what would be the precursors for that situation?
     
  14. Taure

    Taure Magical Core Enthusiast Prestige DLP Supporter

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    Legally speaking, two ways:

    1. 2/3 vote in the House of Commons calling for an early election.

    2. Simple majority vote in the House of Commons declaring no confidence in the government, without being withdrawn in the following 14 days.

    The latter is the reason why a "confidence and supply" deal is named as such. At the very minimum, such a deal means voting with the government against no confidence motions and to supply the government with money by supporting the budget.

    If Theresa May fails to come to a deal with the DUP then she will lack the seats to conclusively see off any no confidence motion. But Corbyn still lacks the seats to pass one. Tory MPs would have to vote with Labour to to pass either of the above motions.

    So it's possible that we would end up with deadlock. In the past deadlock would be resolved by the Queen dissolving Parliament and calling fresh elections, but the Fixed Term Parliaments Act 2011 put an end to that.
     
  15. carvell

    carvell Professor DLP Supporter

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    All May has to do is get the Queen's speech passed though parliment and then her goverment is secure or the Queen will have to call in Corbyn to see if he can form a goverment, as for May herself I don't see her lasting 6 months before her fellow torys start knifeing her in the back.

    https://skwawkbox.org/2017/06/12/in-law-if-may-cant-pass-queensspeech-corbyn-automatically-becomes-pm/

    Also this shows how close it was http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/corbyn-election-results-votes-away-prime-minister-theresa-may-hung-parliament-a7782581.html
     
  16. Sesc

    Sesc Slytherin at Heart Moderator

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    More immediately relevant: Tomorrow begin the Brexit negotiations! Brussels' diligent bureaucrats nodded to the agreed-upon position, wrote lots of memos, crossed ts, dotted is, sharpened pencils, laid-out conference tables lovingly and ordered coffee.

    How's the state on your end?
     
  17. Aekiel

    Aekiel Angle of Mispeling Prestige DLP Supporter

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    Pretty sure we've agreed we should be leaving the EU.
     
  18. Taure

    Taure Magical Core Enthusiast Prestige DLP Supporter

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    The one absolutely clear point is that an end to freedom of movement is the UK's starting point. Both Conservative and Labour parties have this in their manifestos. From there out we're just going to get the most we can, likely attempting to use the "exit bill" to buy market access.

    I think a realistic deal looks something like this:

    1. Reciprocal guarantee of continuation of current rights for people who have moved under freedom of movement prior to Brexit.

    2. An end to freedom of movement, but some kind of easier access to work visas for EU citizens.

    3. A net bill of around €40-60bn.

    4. Zero tariffs on trade in goods.

    5. Trade in services reverting to WTO rules.

    6. Britain exits the customs union (the ability to negotiate new trade deals outside of Europe has been sold as too important a part of Brexit to keep the customs union).

    The problem for EU negotiators is that Britain wants so little - essentially the UK government is negotiating for little more above "no deal". This means that the EU, despite having the much stronger negotiating position if it was negotiating with rational opponents, may find that it struggles to find anything to offer Britain to get that exit bill out of us.

    The thing we want most is freedom of services, but the EU is absolutely unwilling to offer that without freedom of movement. So the only realistic carrot the EU has is tariff free trade in goods, which is mutually beneficial - so much so that the UK may end up unwilling to pay much for it.

    I'd put the chances of a minimal deal - basically no deal, but with a mutual recognition of rights of current residents - as about 50%.
     
    Last edited: Jun 18, 2017
  19. Sesc

    Sesc Slytherin at Heart Moderator

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    At which point the NI thing pops up, though. No customs union and no single market = custom checks. Necessarily, because how else would you separate who and what is supposed to get in from who and what isn't? At the same time, no one wants a border across the Irish isle, but the DUP also wants no border in the Irish Sea (understandably from their POV, it'd amount to Irish unification in all but name).

    I don't see how these things can be squared. And on top of that, Scotland -- with both their Tories and SNP MPs -- is set to demand the only logical solution of that conundrum: Remain in the single market.

    So, uh. I think your post would have been the idea before the elections, Taure. Now I see nothing at all that everyone can agree on, and the thing a majority MPs potentially could agree on -- some fine-tuned Norway model -- is in no way the agreed upon position of May and her Tories.

    Link.

    You might as well argue that on Brexit, there is no party called "Tories". That's just a dysfunctional mess. The party doesn't know what it wants, and May has lost any authority to tell them what they want.
     
  20. Taure

    Taure Magical Core Enthusiast Prestige DLP Supporter

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    I don't think staying in the single market is an option, no matter what the Scottish Tories try. Both the Tories and Labour know that they would get crucified in the next election if they fail to end freedom of movement. I think that it's possible that Labour MPs may end up supporting whatever Brexit May negotiates, lest they become the villains holding up the end of unlimited immigration.

    And if they don't support May's Brexit, then the alternative isn't single market membership, because there's no majority in the Commons for that either. The alternative is political deadlock until the 2 year negotiating period ends, at which point we exit with no deal.

    There's an easy solution for NI: unification with the Republic of Ireland. NI is a fiscal black hole so I don't think many in Westminster would be too sad to see it go. Scotland has land mass and population that means its exit from the UK would be a severe blow to national prestige, but NI leaving the UK really has very few downsides.
     
    Last edited: Jun 18, 2017