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World Politics thread

Discussion in 'Politics' started by Erotic Adventures of S, Aug 1, 2017.

  1. Erotic Adventures of S

    Erotic Adventures of S Denarii Host

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    I thought I'd make this more general than specific since a lot of things happen that would probably only be 3-4 posts but are non the less interesting.

    On that note, New Zealand is having elections in 2 months, we have the MMP system like Germany. Our current goverment is center right and has enough seats to rule alone and is polling that way now, with maybe needing a few seats from a small party to form goverment.

    Out left is in a shit show.

    The major left party is polling mid to low twenties, the Greens their usual allies are polling way up at 15, but that has all come at the cost of Labour making a very unhappy let. Add to that Labours leader just quit under pressure (he never should of had the job), all I can see happening is Labour grabbing a few votes off the Greens and not damaging the right.

    The greens are doing well because one of their two leaders admitted to lying to the goverment about her living conditions to get more welfare for years, and promising a massive welfare increase for everyone with no strings attached, currently you must seek work and take offered jobs.

    What the true problem of the left is, Labour and Greens must go together to have a chance of goverment, but many many labour voters (blue collar like my Dad) refuse to vote for any party who would work with the current Green party. Life long labour voters literally have no one to vote for.

    And our Trump-lite, New Zealand first is polling at 11 and we all hope like hell they arent the king maker.

    I wish we did what Germany did and do center left/right unity and have the Green lead the opposition. But i highly doubt that will happen.
     
  2. El Tarkus

    El Tarkus Squib

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    So... My country, Peru, is undergoing a lot of corruption troubles related to Odebrecht. Even if they keep denying, most presidential candidates took a little piece of that cake. A few million pieces, if you will. Hell, in the last thirty years, the only one without that chip was the Interim one after the fucking Fujimori.

    But, I like to think that at least we are not Venezuela. That place is a powder keg.
     
  3. Erotic Adventures of S

    Erotic Adventures of S Denarii Host

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    Yeah i have been following Venuzela for years as I used to work in Colombia. It is almost impressive how far and fast it fell.
     
  4. Seyllian

    Seyllian Professor DLP Supporter

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  5. Tartarus

    Tartarus First Year

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  6. Seyllian

    Seyllian Professor DLP Supporter

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    13 dead.
     
  7. Solfege

    Solfege High Inquisitor DLP Supporter

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    Yo dawgs, what's up with Labour and Ardern in NZ? Can someone give a layout or some sources to get me up to speed? I know absolutely nothing about NZ politics.
     
    Last edited: Sep 9, 2017
  8. Innomine

    Innomine Auror Prestige DLP Supporter

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    The Labour party changed leaders just over a month ago, the previous leader stepping down due to abysmal polls. The change in support for Labour, the left wing party, was astonishing, to say the least. In the poll after the leadership changed, Labour jumped 13 points from 24% to 37%. This has continued since then, with the latest poll putting Labour on 43%, and National on 39%. These are 10-year highs and lows for both parties. This website gives a snapshot of the polls, but it's averaged out over all them. This change has been fascinating to observe, especially considering the increase in support hasn't come with a notable change in policy.

    To give some background context, since 2009, Labour has had an abysmal showing in elections. The leaders selected were all middle aged white men with little ability to inspire their constituents. They were perceived as tired, out of touch and a government that had no fiscal discipline. These perceptions were far from the truth, but John Key, the prime minister since 2009 was a very charismatic man and was very popular. Of course, in his finance trading days his nickname was "the smiling assassin", so take from that what you will. There have been scandals, such as the dirty politics affair last election (which is worth glancing over if you're interested) but he still managed to win the election comfortably. Shockingly, he resigned at the end of last year 9 months before the election. Generally, family reasons are cited, but I also think he got out while the going was good. National has run a generally conservative government (probably very left wing by US standards, but not by ours), in the interests of fiscal discipline social services such as health, education and welfare have been cut drastically and the cracks are really starting to show at the seams.

    Regardless, Bill English, previous Minister of Finance, took over as leader of the National Party. He is a details man, good at his job, but does not have the same charisma John Key had. Regardless, Labour had even less, and the election was looking like it was unlosable for National. However, my opinion is that discontent has been stirring for many a year now and that it just needed a bit of a push for it to come to the surface. I was convinced before the leadership change, that this would happen at the next election, but the leadership change was the catalyst needed for the left to come out in force. Jacinda Adern, the new leader of the labour party is a relatively young (37) woman who is by all accounts a breath of fresh air. She has a compelling personality, speaks well, has not made any big mistakes, and has managed to inspire the left in New Zealand based on a campaign on values and ideals (and backed up by relatively solid economic fundementals).

    Child poverty, deteriorating quality of our waterways due to the intensification of farming (especially dairy) since the 1980s market reforms, housing affordability, and the economy are all key issues this election. There interesting tension surrounding the economy, in that by all international measures, we have a 'rock star' economy which is the envy of other countries, but at the same time, people don't feel it at all. Just as the OECD released a report stating that economic indicators suggested that NZer's enjoy a high quality of life, UNICEF released a report revealing that NZ has the highest rate of teen suicide in the developed world, a rate so high that it lifts the global average, and is three times higher than Australia, our closest neighbour. Here's a bar graph. The point being made here, is that while indicators suggest we are doing well, people on the ground aren't feeling it, and this is exactly what Jacinda Adern is campaigning on.

    Speaking from a wider perspective, Adern is not a leader such as Corbyn with radical structural change in mind. I expect her to be a continuation of third-way politics, with bandaids being applied to the structural problems associated with neoliberal economics that will benefit the less well off in the short term. Key factors such as economic inequality are unlikely to change markedly at this stage, but the lower socioeconomic classes will benefit greatly from increased funding to social services such as health, education and welfare.
     
  9. Erotic Adventures of S

    Erotic Adventures of S Denarii Host

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    Last week before the elections and it's still to close to call. And once again polls are proving themselves wildly unreliable.

    I give it to National still as they usually do better than polling as labour voters don't actually vote that much.
     
  10. Quiddity

    Quiddity Auror

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    Interesting. My instinct is for Ardern to overperform because of a bit of a mood for change, but I agree it's too close to call.
     
  11. Innomine

    Innomine Auror Prestige DLP Supporter

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    I'm expecting Adern to win this because, as you say Quiddity, there is a mood for change. Things are by no means certain though.
     
  12. Erotic Adventures of S

    Erotic Adventures of S Denarii Host

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    Half the votes in and New Zealand breathes a sign of relief. i was right that labour voters dont actually vote so much as bitch.

    Unfortunatly we avoid one cult of personaility only to get another one with the coalition partner beimg a racist dickwad.
     
  13. Quiddity

    Quiddity Auror

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    Still unclear what will happen from here. I give National 2:1 odds to win the constituency of one.
     
  14. Innomine

    Innomine Auror Prestige DLP Supporter

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    So, Labour has won the New Zealand election in an MMP coalition. Pretty much the best possible outcome in my opinion.
     
  15. Quiddity

    Quiddity Auror

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    I wish we could have left NZFirst out of it, but ah well. I agree it looks positive at present.
     
  16. Erotic Adventures of S

    Erotic Adventures of S Denarii Host

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    A weak three way goverment with a strong opposition... What a shit show.