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Old 01-13-2017, 03:48 AM   #81
Taure
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1. The new contracts are revenue neutral for the government. They're not about spending less, they're about changing the distribution of pay by changing the definition of regular hours (and therefore when doctors get paid extra for anti-social overtime). The contracts have less to do with funding and more to do with the government's ill-advised promise to create a "7 day NHS".

2. The contracts could be said to be a symptom of funding in that one could argue that the correct way to do a 7 day NHS would be to throw more money at it rather than rearrange pay schedules. But like I say above, this makes the contracts firmly an effect of the funding issue, not a cause of it.

3. Regardless of whether or not the issues of fiscal policy and a change in the contract are connected, they are nonetheless able to be distinguished via the most cursory level of analysis. That distinction is not merely logical but has real world consequences for both doctors and the country as a whole and as such is a distinction recognised at law. Doctors, as smart people, are easily able to comprehend the distinction.

4. A shortage can be caused by excess demand as much as limited supply. While of course a certain number of doctors leave the NHS and indeed the country, and while that number may have increased, I have yet to see any evidence that a) that number is anywhere near significant enough to affect services substantially b) that they are not being replaced c) that brain drain to other countries composes a significant part of it d) that when it comes to constrains on supply, that brain drain comes anywhere near close as a cause to the artificially low number of doctors in training via artificial limits on university places on medicine courses.
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Old 01-13-2017, 04:17 AM   #82
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@Taure

I've been watching this back-and-forth between you and Invictus and TMD and I don't understand why you still need to clarify that contracts are a symptom, not a cause, when Invictus and TMD have both been saying that for a while. It's a point everybody seems to have down at this point.

Just my two cents. Carry on. This thread has been more amusing than it should recently.
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Old 01-13-2017, 04:52 AM   #83
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Quote:
I've been watching this back-and-forth between you and Invictus and TMD and I don't understand why you still need to clarify that contracts are a symptom, not a cause, when Invictus and TMD have both been saying that for a while. It's a point everybody seems to have down at this point.
Because TMD's original proposition was that the current crisis shows that the doctors were right about the contract. That is, doctors predicted that the new contract would cause a crisis in the NHS, a crisis is here, so it must be that the doctors' prediction was correct. He has not yet withdrawn that proposition and so it apparently still needs arguing that the contract issue has had no substantial causative effect on the current crisis but rather is merely another effect of a partially shared cause (funding/management).
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Old 01-13-2017, 05:00 AM   #84
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Originally Posted by Taure View Post
Because TMD's original proposition was that the current crisis shows that the doctors were right about the contract. That is, doctors predicted that the new contract would cause a crisis in the NHS, a crisis is here, so it must be that the doctors' prediction was correct. He has not yet withdrawn that proposition and so it apparently still needs arguing that the contract issue has had no substantial causative effect on the current crisis but rather is merely another effect of a partially shared cause (funding/management).
Perhaps not a causative effect, but unless TMD is lying his ass off about the staffing levels problem, then I think it's safe to state that the contracts have had a compounding effect on the crisis, worsening it quicker than it would have happened otherwise, which is the point TMD was making, I think. I mean, this is just based off what I've seen in the thread, I haven't done any research on this, so all I have is the general trustworthiness of DLP members over other Internet strangers.
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Old 01-13-2017, 06:16 AM   #85
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I think it's safe to state that the contracts have had a compounding effect on the crisis, worsening it quicker than it would have happened otherwise
Taure disagrees, and wants official statistics indicating:
Quote:
a) that number is anywhere near significant enough to affect services substantially b) that they are not being replaced c) that brain drain to other countries composes a significant part of it d) that when it comes to constrains on supply, that brain drain comes anywhere near close as a cause to the artificially low number of doctors in training via artificial limits on university places on medicine courses.
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Old 01-13-2017, 06:24 AM   #86
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@VanRopen, that's outside of my scope. Maybe we could ask a doctor or something...
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Old 01-13-2017, 11:21 AM   #87
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ScottPress View Post
Maybe we could ask a doctor or something...
M-MUH ANECDOTES!

Edit to avoid shitposting:

1. Never said contracts were the sole cause of the crisis, nor did doctors ever say the contracts were the sole cause of the crisis.
2. Taure seems to be missing the basic logic here:

Doctors said:

This contract is shit -> People will leave
This contract is shit -> Patient safety will be at greater risk from tired overworked doctors
NHS funding is shit -> NHS crisis coming soon
Primary care is overstretched -> NHS crisis coming soon
Social care has been cut too much -> NHS crisis coming soon
These issues + many others -> NHS crisis coming soon, and it'll be bad.

All of the above were correct, therefore doctors can say "we told you so".

__________________________________________________ __________

Also, for banter, here's another anecdote from the government's official national staff shortage list:

ONLY the following jobs in this occupation code:
 consultant in the following specialities:
- emergency medicine
- haematology
- old age psychiatry
 non-consultant, non-training, medical staff post in the following
specialities:
Speciality doctor and equivalent:
- anaesthetics
- general medicine specialities delivering acute care services (intensive
care medicine, general internal medicine (acute), emergency
medicine (including specialist doctors working in accident and
emergency))
- rehabilitation medicine
- psychiatry

__________________________________________________ __________

And here's another anecdotal piece from today about privatisation.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk...-a7523941.html
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