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Old 11-03-2016, 06:05 PM   #521
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First past the post. Almost all Tory seats voted to leave, if theres even a 10% swing across these seats they will not hold them.
You're forgetting that most of the politicians wanted to vote remain. You are therefore relying on politicians to actually do their job and represent their voters over self interest. A risky proposition.
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Old 11-03-2016, 06:18 PM   #522
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You're forgetting that most of the politicians wanted to vote remain. You are therefore relying on politicians to actually do their job and represent their voters over self interest. A risky proposition.
Their self interest is to not get kicked out of office.
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Old 11-03-2016, 06:23 PM   #523
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An interesting question throughout the Brexit debate has been with the UK leaving the EU, would Scotland leave the UK given it voted by large margin to stay afterwards.

This may now be relevant if activating article 50 has to be done via parliament, as even if the UK parliament chooses to do so I highly doubt that the Scottish parliament would. Does someone know about the constitutionality of this and whether the Scottish parliament would have a say, or whether they could make themselves heard?
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Old 11-03-2016, 07:32 PM   #524
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An interesting question throughout the Brexit debate has been with the UK leaving the EU, would Scotland leave the UK given it voted by large margin to stay afterwards.

This may now be relevant if activating article 50 has to be done via parliament, as even if the UK parliament chooses to do so I highly doubt that the Scottish parliament would. Does someone know about the constitutionality of this and whether the Scottish parliament would have a say, or whether they could make themselves heard?
I am all but certain that the Scottish Parliament doesn't actually have the power to do anything about that, no. They're going to fight for another referendum, and might even get it, but at the end of the day it's the UK Parliament that gets to vote on this kind of thing.
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Old 11-03-2016, 07:38 PM   #525
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I've been reading a lot of news sites since I started my new job and one of the key points that has been emphasised on everything from the Daily Mail to the Guardian is that only a small minority of politicians have proposed ignoring the referendum. That means that any politician that isn't part of the Green Party (or is likewise extreme in their views) isn't going to attempt to block the invocation of Article 50.

The fact is that we're leaving the EU. What's up for debate at this point is what our relationship with the continent will be after we've left. Either way we're almost certainly going to wait until after the German elections next winter before getting into the meat of the negotiations.
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Old 11-04-2016, 07:51 AM   #526
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Speaking of the Daily Mail, several tabloids (and the Telegraph) are close to having a stroke over the ruling. The Guardian has a rather snide article on it, but the front pages themselves are worth it to see in here.






Truly works of art. Also, the Daily Mail's website headline was this before they changed it slightly:

@Aekiel Don't read the DM. It'll rot your brain.
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Old 11-04-2016, 09:24 AM   #527
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I and various other members of my old fencing club have been highly amused by the fact that being a fencer is the worst thing the DM feel able to put on their front page with regard to Sir Etherton. I mean, what a bastard.
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Old 11-04-2016, 12:40 PM   #528
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Obviously if they'd just written "openly gay", that might be homophobic, so they needed another thing to round out the sentence.
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Old 11-04-2016, 02:49 PM   #529
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I love the BBC:
https://youtu.be/WwsQ_5Wm4oo
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Old 11-06-2016, 05:19 AM   #530
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So Corbyn's said that unless Britain retains access to the market, he wants Labour MPs to block Brexit, presumably by voting Remain in Parliament. There's little he can do to force them (Whips don't have legal power, other than reporting) apart from what amounts to expulsion from the party (). Whilst this article doesn't go into detail, it does state that
Quote:
enough Remainers are saying they would respect the result of the referendum and vote to start the process of leaving the EU
.

May's said she plans on carrying out Brexit in full, regardless of the High Court ruling.

I find it interesting she's appealing the decision, because if she thought MPs would vote in line with their constituencies, there wouldn't be an issue (421 out of 574 constituencies voted leave). Certainly, it could just be not wanting to have shackles put on what Government's powers are, which I can't blame her for, but I guess she doesn't want to leave anything to chance.

The other thing to bear in mind is that if it has to through Commons, it then has to go through the Lords. They can't block it forever, but they aren't beholden to anyone, and can basically do whatever they want (in voting). This could make enacting article 50 by the end of 2017 a bit tricky.
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Old 11-06-2016, 05:29 AM   #531
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Certainly, it could just be not wanting to have shackles put on what Parliament's powers are, which I can't blame her for, but I guess she doesn't want to leave anything to chance.
Government's powers*

Quote:
The other thing to bear in mind is that if it has to through Commons, it then has to go through the Lords. They can't block it forever, but they aren't beholden to anyone, and can basically do whatever they want (in voting). This could make enacting article 50 by the end of 2017 a bit tricky.
They can always force it through the Lords using the Parliament Acts 1911 and 1949.
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Old 11-06-2016, 05:43 AM   #532
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They can always force it through the Lords using the Parliament Acts 1911 and 1949.
Brexit sure as hell isn't a money bill, so they'd have to pass it in consecutive sessions which 1) gives the remain MPs multiple opportunities to fuck with the bill, and 2) would push the carrying out of article 50 to after a new general election.

It wouldn't stop it, but if the Lords wanted to they'd make life significantly harder for the Government here.
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Old 11-06-2016, 07:27 AM   #533
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Government's powers*
True. Edited.

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They can always force it through the Lords using the Parliament Acts 1911 and 1949.
They have to pass it through two sessions, and it'll have been delayed by up to a year.

That said, the Salisbury Convention does mean that if May does go for early re-election, and makes "follow through on the referendum" part of her manifesto, they can't block it. Given that at least one party is already doing the opposite.
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Old 11-06-2016, 08:15 AM   #534
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Obviously if they'd just written "openly gay", that might be homophobic, so they needed another thing to round out the sentence.
Plus it sounds like a posh cunt thing that their typical audience would dislike.
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Old 11-07-2016, 09:37 AM   #535
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I don't like Corbyn, partly for political reasons (he's too close to the Islamists and the illiberal left), and partly for pragmatic reasons (he'll never win a GE), but he's done the right thing here, the clever thing.

His promise to block Brexit unless access to the single market is obtained appears very reasonable - after all, most Brits want the common market, and the marginal victory of Leave was gotten off the back of many voters being promised so.

But of course, we all know the EU will never grant access to the common market without freedom of movement - it would be political suicide for all of the mainstream European parties, left or right, currently in power. If they show to their citizens that you can have access to the common market without needing to let in them dirty foreigners, they'll all be thrown out in short order for the anti-immigrant right.

No deal May gets from the EU, then, will pass Parliament, assuming there are enough Tories willing to stand up to the Eurosceptic right.

This could buy us a couple of years.

This impasse can eventually be broken by a direct referendum upon Brexit without access to the common market - which Leave should lose, since (1) there'll be higher pro-Remain turnout now all the apathetic Remainers have seen the consequences of not voting, or of protest voting, and (2) Leave without common market is considerably less popular than Leave with.

Or May will simply call a General Election, deselect the defectors, and then it'll be Leave Conservatives vs Corbyn's Labour.

God save our souls.
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Old 11-07-2016, 09:43 AM   #536
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No deal May gets from the EU, then, will pass Parliament, assuming there are enough Tories willing to stand up to the Eurosceptic right.
Very big assumption. Any Tory who goes against Brexit all but guarantees they lose their seat, either by de-selection or by shedding voters to UKIP in the next election.
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Old 11-08-2016, 01:58 AM   #537
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@fire I agree Corbyn's doing the right thing politically, but not because I think Brexit will be stopped. Instead this move puts Labour as the major party who was unwilling to vote for unqualified Brexit, which should be a positive cleavage for them later on. Especially because, as you said, his requirement seems highly reasonable but is very unlikely to occur (and if it does, he looks even better).

Unfortunate that they were so lukewarmly anti-Brexit earlier. But they may make hay out of this yet.
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Old 11-08-2016, 08:01 AM   #538
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Sturgeon's jumping in with "protect Scotland!", but doesn't actually say what she plans on doing. It looks like she's in support of MPs voting on A50 though.

Also, it has been raised with the CPS that some of the information presented by the Leave campaign was untrue, and known to be so. As such, it counts as deliberate lying to voters, which is an offence (although only from 2006, it looks like. And never actually taken to court). This wouldn't have any impact on the outcome of the referendum itself.

It's all a bit of a kerfuffle, really.
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Old 11-20-2016, 02:18 PM   #539
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Honestly the moment that Parliament actually blocks the brexit the shitstorm is really going to happen, At the point the people of the EU just want them to leave and that's not even mention the pro brexit voters who would most likely riot at a shit move like that.
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Old 01-11-2017, 09:12 PM   #540
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Dominic Cummings, the mastermind behind the Leave campaign, wrote an article detailing why Leave won. It's a lot more thoughtful and nuanced than I thought it would be-- he acknowledges the small margin of victory, he doesn't tell a 'big picture' narrative.

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/01...eferendum-won/
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