Dark Lord Potter Forums Dark Lord Potter Forums  
Go Back   Dark Lord Potter Forums > Common Room > Politics
Donate Register Rules Library List IRC Chat FAQ Members List Social Groups Calendar Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read

Notices

Donate to DLP PatronusCharm Banner

Closed Thread
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 11-06-2016, 09:22 PM   #4841
Krogan
Third Year
Alien in a Hat
 
Krogan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Texas
Gender: Male
Posts: 109
DLP Supporter Donor Star
High Score: 2,719
Quote:
Originally Posted by Darth_Revan View Post
I can't imagine any scenario where that is possible. Her maid is presumably in her home. Her classified networks would not be n her house, and, even then, as a high level official, 99% of any material she has would be given to her already-printed in briefings and meetings.

Never the twain shall meet. So I call BS.
I'm not arguing with you, its just something that Id been hearing a lot lately and I was wondering what if any validity there was to it. I trust you guys for political news more than I do most.
__________________
Krogan is offline  
Old 11-06-2016, 11:07 PM   #4842
Darth_Revan
The Chosen One
 
Darth_Revan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: The Empire City
Gender: Male
Posts: 2,225
DLP Supporter Donor Star
Quote:
Originally Posted by Krogan View Post
I'm not arguing with you, its just something that Id been hearing a lot lately and I was wondering what if any validity there was to it. I trust you guys for political news more than I do most.
I don't blame you; in this environment, it's hard to know what's real, let alone what to believe.

The Trump campaign has been doing its best to spin it in such a way as to cloud things further. Their line is basically "it doesn't matter what's real, only what our voters believe." Which is fairly shrewd, if nakedly cynical.

We live in a post-fact culture.
__________________

Peace is a lie, the greatest lie there is. The truth is strife. Struggle. Pain. Suffering.

And from that turmoil, power. The power to bend the universe to my will.

- Revan, Dark Lord of the Sith
Darth_Revan is offline  
Old 11-06-2016, 11:44 PM   #4843
Invictus
The Chosen One
 
Invictus's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2013
Location: Cidade Maravilhosa
Gender: Male
Posts: 2,191
Quote:
Originally Posted by Darth_Revan View Post
I don't blame you; in this environment, it's hard to know what's real, let alone what to believe.

The Trump campaign has been doing its best to spin it in such a way as to cloud things further. Their line is basically "it doesn't matter what's real, only what our voters believe." Which is fairly shrewd, if nakedly cynical.

We live in a post-fact culture.
Not really. You're going through a "the feel/appearences/superficial is what matters". Poor people, specially white, are tired of hearing how things are getting better, economy is growing, trade is increasing and not feeling anything. They see other groups growing and getting ahead and feel stagnated. They don't care about facts because facts most of the time don't apply to them. So they're just holding onto hope that outsiders, ones who aren't part of the system that they feel excluded from will make things better. It's faith, not trust they have.

Reality didn't come crashing down for them like it's coming here in Latin America. Sooner or later they will get what they want, and it will be a bitter pill, do everyone involved, but, as always, the bitterest will be to the most vulnerable.
__________________
My Story:
The Search for Justice A One Piece Marine Quest (SV) - Discover the meaning of Justice
Steam profile.
Invictus is online now  
Old 11-07-2016, 12:45 AM   #4844
Aurion
Headmaster
 
Aurion's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: North Carolina
Age: 27
Gender: Male
Posts: 1,155
Quote:
Originally Posted by Erotic Adventures of S View Post
Arent you clever? Not agreeing with something and finding it toxic is not the same as not knowing it exists.
Go back, read what you said again, realize it was utterly retarded, and move on.

Quote:
And there are degrees to which such things can and should be tolerated. The NY Times has bias, but not as much as say Breitbart.
To what degree they can and should be tolerated is a matter of solely personal opinion.

Quote:
My issue with this cycle is, as with most things this time, it really seems to hve turned most things up to 11.
Hm.

Quote:
Of all the odd things about this Electoon the idea of news papers endorsing politicians is fucking crazy. Have they not heard of impartiality? I wouldnt read a paper who endorsed someone (if possible it seems almost all of them do)
Backpedal faster, bitch. You are actively refusing to acknowledge a fundamental facet of our political reality. Because you don't like it. And there is no "almost" here. News sources are not impartial, and those that try to be so (see: CNN) end up as a running joke for their obsession for covering every side of an issue in case one happens to be right, to paraphrase Obama.

--

As the risk of getting a little meta:

You can argue that the obsession with impartiality in some corners is just as retarded as the spin that comes from HuffPo and Breit- after all, the Golden Mean Fallacy is, well, a fallacy. Just because one side says white and another says black does not make a grey interpretation correct.

Taking a point of view diametrically opposed to factual evidence does not change what is "correct". This shows up rather prominently in the debate about climate change, for a notable example.

---

In all seriousness though.

Did you, yknow, miss the 1990s? The 2000s? Whitewater? Lewinsky? Iraq? SBV? Anything pertaining to President Obama, but particularly his place of birth and religious affiliation? Wingnuttery is not new.

Conspiracy theorizing is not new to our politics- not new to the mainstream, never fucking mind the actual crazies- especially not about the Clintons. It's not the first, fifth, or twentieth time election coverage this close to the point of decision has been at a fever pitch, either.

So you're doing one of two things- either the very charitable interpretation I posted- you just aren't paying enough attention-, or... well, or you're simply talking about something you don't know jack about so you can jerk it to how superior you feel to the plebs.

e: If you think that's unfair, well, you aren't the first, fiftieth, or ten thousandth person to post some shit about how they're fed up with media bias. It's not a unique thought, and definitely not a unique chain of reasoning. Happens like clockwork, and you're falling pretty neatly into the pattern.
__________________
Let us tell the story of a certain man. The tale of a man who, more than anyone else, believed in his ideals, and by them was driven into despair.

Last edited by Aurion; 11-07-2016 at 01:24 AM.
Aurion is offline  
Old 11-07-2016, 04:10 AM   #4845
Eilyfe
Order Member
 
Eilyfe's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2014
Age: 25
Gender: Male
Posts: 840
Erm, someone had a bad day it seems?

Anyway, countdown is going tick-a-tock. Yesterday I made my usual presidential Trump jokery and my flatmate blankly told me that he's very nervous about this election - which upon further reflection is true for me as well.

So, we're tense and on another continent. I can't quite fathom how DLP:America must feel right now.

I'd appreciate it if the political savy among you could give me their final estimate. How likely is President Trump in these last hours?
__________________
"'Tis now the very witching time of night,
When churchyards yawn, and hell itself breaths out
Contagion to this world."
Eilyfe is online now  
Old 11-07-2016, 05:22 AM   #4846
World
Oberstgruppenführer
 
World's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Axis of Evil (Original)
Age: 29
Gender: Male
Posts: 3,163
DLP Supporter Donor Star
Quote:
Originally Posted by Aurion View Post
News sources are not impartial, and those that try to be so (see: CNN) end up as a running joke for their obsession for covering every side of an issue in case one happens to be right, to paraphrase Obama.
Well, we all know that reality has a liberal bias, so just reporting reality would be biased

Quote:
my flatmate blankly told me that he's very nervous about this election - which upon further reflection is true for me as well
Me too, buddy. 538 says it's a 33% chance for Trump, which I think is way too much for comfort. I'm still hoping for a Clinton landslide, just to discourage populism.
__________________
World is offline  
Old 11-07-2016, 06:44 AM   #4847
fire
Professor
 
fire's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Gender: Male
Posts: 446
Re: polls and their accuracy.

There is reason to believe that the post-Comey tightening of the polls overstates the degree to which Clinton will lose actual votes.

(1) Partisan fatigue. What this means is that when bad stuff happens to your party, you're less likely to respond to polling requests (think about what happens when your sports team loses a game; if they win, you'll happily talking about it with friends or on a supporter's forum; if they lose, you just want to pretend it doesn't exist). So the tightening of the polls reflects (A) less Clinton supporters responding, and not just (B) people withdrawing their support.

(2) GOTV effects. Traditionally, polls don't need to take into account GOTV effects because they assume both parties are competent and equally good at GOTVing. But with the Trump campaign's incompetence in this regard, and them going up against the well-oiled Obama/DNC turnout machine (especially in Reid's Nevada), there is going to be a measurable difference. Even last time in 2012, Obama's team estimated that their concerted GOTV efforts would give them a 1-2% advantage beyond what the tight polls suggested, and as it turned out, they were right - which was how Romney got blown out of the water in the Electoral College, while the polls indicated nothing of the sort. In short, the polls might be tight now, but since the dems are better at actually getting their voters to the polls, actual voting was will probably favour Hillary.

This is my understanding at least, but I would welcome any clarification or corrections from others with a deeper knowledge of such stuff.

EDIT: In response to @World @Eilyfe

For the above reasons, 538 is probably not very reliable atm - it overweighs these (inaccurate) new polls relative to the older ones which consistently show a Clinton advantage. All other models (Sam Wang at PEC, Rothschild at PredictWise, etc etc) all show Clinton with ~90% chance of winning.
__________________
The road to hell is paved with good intentions,
the road to heaven with corpses.

Last edited by fire; 11-07-2016 at 06:56 AM.
fire is offline  
Old 11-07-2016, 08:03 AM   #4848
Perspicacity
High Inquisitor
High Score: 3,994
 
Perspicacity's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: Elsewhere
Gender: Male
Posts: 511
DLP Supporter Donor Star
High Score: 3,994
Quote:
Originally Posted by fire View Post
This is my understanding at least, but I would welcome any clarification or corrections from others with a deeper knowledge of such stuff.

EDIT: In response to @World @Eilyfe

For the above reasons, 538 is probably not very reliable atm - it overweighs these (inaccurate) new polls relative to the older ones which consistently show a Clinton advantage. All other models (Sam Wang at PEC, Rothschild at PredictWise, etc etc) all show Clinton with ~90% chance of winning.
For what it's worth, here's the 538 counterpoint to those models (posted in response to this article, which apparently got sand in Silver's nether regions).

I'm not sure what to make of the stark contradictions among different meta-polling models, but I do know that Dem and Latino early voting turnout in some key swing states such as Nevada and Florida has been very strong and seems at odds with some of the historically based adjustments Silver makes to poll outcomes in his models. It's unclear that these adjustments, some of the very ones that led him to under-represent Trump's chances in the primaries, are appropriate in such a non-standard, unprecedented election.

Early voting in general blunts the effects of any Comey 11th-hour "revelation" and also tends to make people ignore polls. Myself, I've ignored more than twenty telephone calls from pollsters in the last week alone. While I acknowledge I've a civic obligation to vote, I've no such obligation to have my weekends or evenings interrupted continually to provide for free opposition research for this candidate or the other, or to support news agencies' reporting on fabricated stories as opposed to real issues dividing candidates.
__________________
Perspicacity is offline  
Old 11-07-2016, 08:24 AM   #4849
World
Oberstgruppenführer
 
World's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Axis of Evil (Original)
Age: 29
Gender: Male
Posts: 3,163
DLP Supporter Donor Star
Quote:
Originally Posted by fire View Post
Re: polls and their accuracy.
That's basically what I'm hoping for. Maybe I'm just seeing the worst forecast and panicking as a result.

After reading the HuffPo vs 538 articles, I guess I fall somewhere in the middle. On the one hand, the high number of uncertain voters makes a 99% prediction pretty risky, on the other hand, adjusting the polls and then saying a 3 point polling error is possible sounds wrong. Also, 538 themselves had an article on how most voters haven't changed their minds at any point.

The early voting looks good, so I guess there's reasons enough to relax, for now.
__________________
World is offline  
Old 11-07-2016, 08:43 AM   #4850
Oment
Headmaster
The Betrayer
 
Oment's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2011
Gender: Male
Posts: 1,169
Never underestimate the propensity of people to do stupid things. If I were on Clinton's campaign, I wouldn't relax until they've broken 300 EVs with at least a 1 % gap in the popular vote in those states. Anything less means there's money to be had for the lawyers.

Random question, but do networks stream their coverage? I've only got CNN Europe and the BBC as vaguely acceptable options to watch around here, and I'm not sure I can withstand hours upon hours of Wolf Blitzer, plus BBC has innate delays.
__________________
Curse my sudden but inevitable betrayals.

~R.I.P. Oz's dick, 1990-2016.~
Oment is offline  
Old 11-07-2016, 09:02 AM   #4851
Giovanni
The Fifth House
God of Scotch
 
Giovanni's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Gilligan's Island
Gender: Male
Posts: 8,207
Comey doesn't blunt. Just fucks with the closing argument after electorate made up it's mind based on his prior handling of situation. Textbook case study of how not to manage a politically sensitive situation.
__________________
This is what happens when you contemplate a career switch.

Quote:
Xiph0 What then?

Xiph0 Everyone needs projects.

Giovanni No long term projects except the goal of acquiring more property so that I can die.
Giovanni is offline  
Old 11-07-2016, 09:10 AM   #4852
Darth_Revan
The Chosen One
 
Darth_Revan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: The Empire City
Gender: Male
Posts: 2,225
DLP Supporter Donor Star
Quote:
Originally Posted by Oment View Post
Random question, but do networks stream their coverage? I've only got CNN Europe and the BBC as vaguely acceptable options to watch around here, and I'm not sure I can withstand hours upon hours of Wolf Blitzer, plus BBC has innate delays.
On important days like Election Day, most of the networks offer free streaming, but I don't know if that extends to overseas IP addresses.
__________________

Peace is a lie, the greatest lie there is. The truth is strife. Struggle. Pain. Suffering.

And from that turmoil, power. The power to bend the universe to my will.

- Revan, Dark Lord of the Sith
Darth_Revan is offline  
Old 11-07-2016, 12:04 PM   #4853
gorlosh
DA Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2011
Posts: 155
Quote:
Originally Posted by World View Post
That's basically what I'm hoping for. Maybe I'm just seeing the worst forecast and panicking as a result.

After reading the HuffPo vs 538 articles, I guess I fall somewhere in the middle. On the one hand, the high number of uncertain voters makes a 99% prediction pretty risky, on the other hand, adjusting the polls and then saying a 3 point polling error is possible sounds wrong. Also, 538 themselves had an article on how most voters haven't changed their minds at any point.

The early voting looks good, so I guess there's reasons enough to relax, for now.
Why would you say early voting looks good?
Honestly, I think it looks good. NC and FLorida seem like legitimate toss ups. While Nevada looks pretty good for HRC. 290ish for HRC seems to be the best bet to me.
gorlosh is offline  
Old 11-07-2016, 01:29 PM   #4854
Mage
Chief Warlock
 
Mage's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Washington, DC
Gender: Male
Posts: 1,456
DLP Supporter Donor Star
Send a message via Skype™ to Mage
My thoughts here, including some House races and all senate races. Meandering from Northeast around the country.

Maine CD-2
Clinton (D) & Cain (D, ME-2) win.

New Hampshire
Clinton (D), Ayotte (R-Sen), Shea-Porter (D, NH-1) & Kuster (D, NH-2)

Pennsylvania
Clinton (D), Toomey (R-Sen), Fitzpatrick (R, PA-08)

North Carolina
Clinton (D), Cooper (D-Gov), Burr (R-Sen)

Florida
Clinton (D), Rubio (R-Sen), Muprhy (D, FL-07), Curbelo (R, FL-26)

Ohio
Trump (R), Portman (R-Sen)

Nevada
Clinton (D), Cortez-Mastro (D-Sen)

Iowa
Trump (R), Grassley (R-Sen)

Arizona
Trump (R), McCain (R-Sen)

Georgia
Trump (R)

Colorado
Clinton (D)

New Mexico
Clinton (D)

Michigan
Clinton (D)

Wisconsin
Clinton (D), Feingold (D-Sen)

Missouri
Trump (R), Kander (D-Sen)

Indiana
Trump (R), Young (R)

My senate adds up to 49-51 Republican controlled, however with all the tight races I would say it's 50-50 with VP Kaine as the deciding vote. House gains about 10-12, going to say 199 Dems all told. My electoral map below.

Mage is online now  
Old 11-07-2016, 01:49 PM   #4855
Sesc
Moderator
Slytherin at Heart
 
Sesc's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Hbg., Germany
Gender: Male
Posts: 4,833
You think Kander in Missouri? I reach 49-51 too, but put in Katie McGinty in PA. She's been leading in the polls pretty consistently. If Kander gets it, I'm sure we have 50-50. And then in depends on what Maggie Hassan in New Hampshire does.

NH is probably a good state to watch anyway; the margin there, for Trump or Clinton, is pretty indicative. If Trump leads, that's trouble, and if Clinton has a larger-than-expected victory, it'll help Hassan (and flip the senate) and also put away the remaining doubts about Clinton.
__________________
She shuddered, even as we were descending, but when we dismounted, there was no sadness, no grief. Her ice blue eyes burned in boundless fury, a look so piercing it went clean through me. It was simultaneously the most beautiful and most terrifying thing I had ever seen on her face.

“Someone is going to pay.”

Kairos

________________________________
FF.net :: By That Last Candle's Light :: The French Affair :: Unatoned


I heard that you like the bad girls, honey,
Is that true?
Sesc is offline  
Old 11-07-2016, 02:06 PM   #4856
Mage
Chief Warlock
 
Mage's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Washington, DC
Gender: Male
Posts: 1,456
DLP Supporter Donor Star
Send a message via Skype™ to Mage
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sesc View Post
You think Kander in Missouri? I reach 49-51 too, but put in Katie McGinty in PA. She's been leading in the polls pretty consistently. If Kander gets it, I'm sure we have 50-50. And then in depends on what Maggie Hassan in New Hampshire does.

NH is probably a good state to watch anyway; the margin there, for Trump or Clinton, is pretty indicative. If Trump leads, that's trouble, and if Clinton has a larger-than-expected victory, it'll help Hassan (and flip the senate) and also put away the remaining doubts about Clinton.
I do, Blount didn't take it seriously and Kander is a future Dem star regardless of winning or loss. It's a bit of a gut feeling though. McGinty is up, but this is just a gut feeling that she can't close it. Hope I'm wrong though, as it is a good pickup.
__________________
"Never say goodbye. If you don't say goodbye then you aren't really gone, you just aren't here right now."

-Red vs Blue Season 10


Mage is online now  
Thumbs Up 1 Thumb Up
Old 11-07-2016, 05:22 PM   #4857
fire
Professor
 
fire's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Gender: Male
Posts: 446
Kander is the real fucking deal. Honest, smart, and very, very charismatic - there's just something about him that makes you want to like him.

Pity, though, that he supports a balanced budget amanedment and opposes the Iran deal while wanting to work with the likes of Tom Cotton.

The last one we can let slide based on his military history. The second is pretty bad, and suggests uncritical hawkishness. The first, though, is just mind bogglingly retarded, and suggests a fundamental flaw in character (either you never bothered to understand such basic economics, in which case you're too irresponsible to be let near the levers of power; or you did, but ignored the truth in favour of your gut, in which case you're too lacking in judgement to be trusted with anything at all).
__________________
The road to hell is paved with good intentions,
the road to heaven with corpses.
fire is offline  
Old 11-07-2016, 06:01 PM   #4858
Invictus
The Chosen One
 
Invictus's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2013
Location: Cidade Maravilhosa
Gender: Male
Posts: 2,191
538 has Nevada, Florida and North Carolina blue. Interesting.
__________________
My Story:
The Search for Justice A One Piece Marine Quest (SV) - Discover the meaning of Justice
Steam profile.
Invictus is online now  
Old 11-07-2016, 09:41 PM   #4859
Newcomb
Death Eater
 
Newcomb's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Location: The Evergreen State
Age: 28
Gender: Male
Posts: 964
Did anyone read Glenn Beck's interview with the New Yorker?

I think if anything is going to sum up just how fundamentally weird 2016 has been, it's that I'm currently reading an article where Glenn Beck had nice things to say about Obama and counted himself among the Black Lives Matter supporters.

I knew Beck had been pretty vocal about his distaste for Trump, but this is like... a whole other thing.

Kinda baffled, tbh.
__________________
𝄢
FFN | DLP | ???
Newcomb is offline  
Thumbs Up 4 thumbs up
Old 11-07-2016, 09:54 PM   #4860
Darth_Revan
The Chosen One
 
Darth_Revan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: The Empire City
Gender: Male
Posts: 2,225
DLP Supporter Donor Star
Quote:
Originally Posted by Newcomb View Post
Did anyone read Glenn Beck's interview with the New Yorker?

I think if anything is going to sum up just how fundamentally weird 2016 has been, it's that I'm currently reading an article where Glenn Beck had nice things to say about Obama and counted himself among the Black Lives Matter supporters.

I knew Beck had been pretty vocal about his distaste for Trump, but this is like... a whole other thing.

Kinda baffled, tbh.
He's either off his meds, or finally back on them.
__________________

Peace is a lie, the greatest lie there is. The truth is strife. Struggle. Pain. Suffering.

And from that turmoil, power. The power to bend the universe to my will.

- Revan, Dark Lord of the Sith
Darth_Revan is offline  
Thumbs Up 2 thumbs up
Closed Thread


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Twin Peaks 2016 Jibril Movies, Music and TV shows 3 10-07-2014 04:10 AM
Israeli Elections Azira Politics 11 01-25-2013 09:51 PM
Midterm Elections Taure Politics 101 11-05-2010 07:48 PM
Presidential Elections vlad Politics 0 05-15-2010 02:15 PM
Mid-Term Elections Hadoren Politics 27 11-10-2006 04:54 PM


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 08:17 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright ©2005 - 2016 DLP Group. All rights reserved.
No personal intellectual property on this site may be used without the credit and express permission of the respective authors.