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Old 11-28-2016, 08:39 AM   #1
Dark Belra
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European Elections

With recent news, I figured some people might be interested in talking about some of the European Elections happening soon.

For those who don't know, Alain Juppe, the expected winner of the presidential election just lost to Francois Fillon, an admirer of Thatcher. With that news, the election is likely going to be down to Le Pen and Fillon. It's still some ways off but polls would suggest Le Pen and Fillon are close. Either France votes anti-EU or anti-welfare.

Over onto the German side, it looks a lot more stable to me with Merkel having a pretty big chance at being reelected.
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Old 11-28-2016, 10:03 AM   #2
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Of course Marine Le Pen would be a disaster for France and Europe more generally. However, she would be good for the UK in terms of Brexit negotiations. So a FN victory would have a slight silver lining for us.
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Old 11-28-2016, 11:53 AM   #3
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On the other hand, Fillon is clear what his stance on Brexit is; Britain gone ASAP with no financial passport. He has also said that British MEPs should have no right to vote in Strasbourg or in Brussels. Granted that was a while ago and I haven't seen any more recent statements towards Brexit.

I have seen some people say that Fillon would be good for Brexit as well since he is apparently an Anglophile and loves Thatcher but I don't see that happening personally. I think he ultimately wants people to see London as a worse prospect than Paris.
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Old 11-28-2016, 01:25 PM   #4
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There will be a referendum in Italy on Sunday. I could tell you what it's about, but no one cares apparently. All that matters is that the Prime Minister, Matteo Renzi, has tied himself and his position to a YES win, so if the majority votes NO, he will step down (or lose face, which is not impossible, more shameful things have happened, but I think it's unlikely). The result of that will either be new elections with a system that has been deemed unconstitutional, or the creation of a 'compromise' government meant to change that system and then new elections.
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Old 11-28-2016, 02:23 PM   #5
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Nigel Farage poised to back Marine Le Pen in French presidential election despite accusing her party of 'prejudice and antisemitism'

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Nigel Farage has hinted he will back far-right National Front leader Marine Le Pen in next year’s French presidential election.

The interim Ukip leader described Ms le Pen as “brilliant” and suggested a victory for would mean “it’s over” for the European Union.

In the past, Mr Farage has distanced himself from the National Front's "prejudice and anti-Semitism" - despite Ms le Pen insisting there is not a "hair's breadth" between it and Ukip.
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Old 11-29-2016, 01:40 AM   #6
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Well it seems to be between Fillon and Le Pen, both of which are pretty conservative and anti-immigration candidates. I do think that both would be better presidents than Hollande, but I fear that Fillon is too pro-Putin and that behind Le Pen's charisma is not a lot of substance and a lot pf populism.

On the other hand, Austria has the next big election between the Right Wing and Left Wing parties in their country. With both candidates having rather extreme viewpoints, I'm curious to see if the Trump, Le Pen and Brexit wave will hit Austria as well.
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Old 11-29-2016, 01:49 AM   #7
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It's very likely. From the data I've seen, I expect we're going to see a lot of similar nationalist movements taking the reins over the next year or two.

It's a very interesting time, I've gotta give it that.
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Old 12-04-2016, 04:32 PM   #8
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Alexander von der Bellen from the Green Party just won the Austrian presidential election, winning over Norbert Hofer from the Freedom Party of Austria. People on the political left should be relieved that the trend of populist right wing candidates winning recent elections is broken.
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Old 12-04-2016, 06:21 PM   #9
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Alexander von der Bellen from the Green Party just won the Austrian presidential election, winning over Norbert Hofer from the Freedom Party of Austria. People on the political left should be relieved that the trend of populist right wing candidates winning recent elections is broken.
Not really. Of all elections in this year and the next one, this one was by far the most inconsequential. Exit polls already indicate that Renzi is losing in Italy, which might be disastrous for the EU if not handled well, specially regarding Italy's banks. That Renzi could call new elections in 2017... It would mean all Big Three (+ Netherlands with Wildeers, arguably the first of the modern European right populists to go mainstream) of the EU would be up to grabs in one year, just after major wins by the populists and a glaring inability by the estabilishment to address popular desires.

Edit: Renzi just declared his intention to resign, after a big loss. Fun times are coming again.
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Old 12-05-2016, 12:47 AM   #10
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Huh, so Italy happened. Anyone have any data and/or predictions what that's gonna mean for the EU? I'm pretty ignorant of the state of affairs over there, but I heard something about a banking crisis that this doesn't bode well for, which could do all kinds of nasty shit.

I'm also kinda curious if the snowballing effects of this are gonna have any impact on the French election next year.
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Old 12-05-2016, 02:31 AM   #11
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Huh, so Italy happened. Anyone have any data and/or predictions what that's gonna mean for the EU? I'm pretty ignorant of the state of affairs over there, but I heard something about a banking crisis that this doesn't bode well for, which could do all kinds of nasty shit.

I'm also kinda curious if the snowballing effects of this are gonna have any impact on the French election next year.
The possible impact of this could range of minima to game-changing depending on a number of factor that are nearly impossible to predict. A lot of it depends on how the banking sector reacts to the news (Italy has a massive amount debt, its banks sit on a lot of bad debt and their economy has not been anything to write home about for years) with the fear being that the interest rates could jump and start a new banking crisis (which could be extremely bad). However I am actually quite confident that this won't happen in the short term since unlike Brexit or Trump this outcome was expected and despite Renzi retiring we are unlikely to see massive changes to Italy's policies shortterm since his probable replacement (his finance minister I think) is a well respected technocrat.

Politically speaking I am one of the few who probably doesn't view this as the end of the world since the referendum had several weaknesses and shouldn't in my eyes be viewed as a referendum about Europe which means we shouldn't read to much into it.

And in regards for follow-up effects in Europe/the upcoming elections next year - once again I am one of the few optimistic people who doesn't think that the right will actually do as well as some here predict. In my opinion the negative and extremely public examples Brexit and Trump, whose negative impacts should become quite clear in mid/late 2017, will very likely (or perhaps more correctly hopefully) undermine a lot of the far right rhetoric we currently see.

Plus even without that the situation isn't that bad. We got some good news out of France where we not only have Hollande doing the smart move and let somebody else be the candidate for the left but have also the conservatives field a candidate that will in all likelihood win a lot of the Front National votes , thus splitting the right. In Germany meanwhile the AfD (our right wing party) doesn't have (and never had) any serious chance of winning the election or being part of the next government (in fact due to nature of coalitions here I would say we can actually expect a more left leaning government). And in Italy the 5-star movement might won their first few big local elections (most noticeable the mayorship of Rome) but is currently failing pretty hard at actually governing, which I think could become an issue for them later on.

Granted all that could change massively if Italy actually starts a new banking crisis, China's economy crashes or Turkey decides to open its borders at an unfortunate time etc. but like I said I wouldn't yet start preparing for the end of the world/western civilisation.
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Old 12-05-2016, 08:08 AM   #12
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Plus even without that the situation isn't that bad. We got some good news out of France where we not only have Hollande doing the smart move and let somebody else be the candidate for the left but have also the conservatives field a candidate that will in all likelihood win a lot of the Front National votes , thus splitting the right.
It's not like the French left is very beloved, though, and Vallis (who is expected to announce his candidacy later today) plus Macron together don't even poll consistently more than the #2 in the polls (currently Le Pen.) Early days and all, but it's probably going to be Fillon vs Le Pen as it stands.
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And in Italy the 5-star movement might won their first few big local elections (most noticeable the mayorship of Rome) but is currently failing pretty hard at actually governing, which I think could become an issue for them later on.
Failing government is an Italian staple, not exactly exclusive to the Five Star Movement. They elected Berlusconi, don't expect them to be some sort of guardian.

Mind, I shouldn't be talking - Wilders will be my PM (#notmyPM /#nietmijnpremier) after some coalition negotiating most likely. He's currently rising in the polls, courtesy of being on trial for some Trump v0.2-type words that are pretty much common parlance by now, two years later, and there's nobody to really stop him. Our current PM has incumbency issues and is tacking right hard, his party [VVD] is still tarred with the brush of a few scandals, and no other party polls anywhere close to those two. Between the VVD, Labour's current implosion, and the Christian Democrats struggling to recover from their implosion in '10 and '12, all the traditionally big parties are accounted for. We're currently set to have 13 poltiical parties in our House of Representatives.

This may not sound as a lot, but when your House of Representatives has 150 seats total, you can probably see the fragmented and probably impotent nature of future Dutch politics.
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Old 12-06-2016, 05:33 PM   #13
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Not really. Of all elections in this year and the next one, this one was by far the most inconsequential. Exit polls already indicate that Renzi is losing in Italy, which might be disastrous for the EU if not handled well, specially regarding Italy's banks. That Renzi could call new elections in 2017... It would mean all Big Three (+ Netherlands with Wildeers, arguably the first of the modern European right populists to go mainstream) of the EU would be up to grabs in one year, just after major wins by the populists and a glaring inability by the estabilishment to address popular desires.

Edit: Renzi just declared his intention to resign, after a big loss. Fun times are coming again.
You were right, I had missed the news on the italian vote when I wrote the previous post. If Norbert had won Austria it would have been pretty symbolic of things to come. But Renzi losing right after, devalues the meaning of Norberts lose a lot. As far as I understand the Italian vote, it wasn't neccesarily a no to the EU though.
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Old 02-14-2017, 06:03 AM   #14
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With the left split as it is, it seems less and less likely Melenchon or Hamon will make it. Anyone who makes it to the runoff (though maybe not Melenchon) should be able to beat Le Pen pretty handily, but the question is really who will make it. Since his corruption scandal, Fillon has been bleeding votes--some to Le Pen, some to Macron, and some to Bayrou. A Macron-Le Pen runoff definitely goes to Macron, as he's the centrist (even if he's viewed as in the pockets of big banks) who distanced himself from the disastrous Hollande government.

The lead has changed several times, though, so we'll see how it goes.
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