1. Hey Guest, welcome back to DLP

    As you can see, we've changed our look. We've migrated from vBulletin to the Xenforo forum system. There may be issues or missing functionality, if you find anything or have feedback, please check out the new Xenforo Migration Feedback forum.

    Our dark ("Dark Lord Potter") theme is under heavy development. We also have a light ("Light Lord Potter") theme for those happier with a light background and darker text.

    Dismiss Notice
Dismiss Notice
Hey Guest! Are you any good at cooking? Got a favourite recipe that you love to cook or bring out to impress that special someone? Why not share it! A new forum called The Burrow has opened and it's all about homemaking!

British EU Referendum Thread

Discussion in 'Politics' started by Taure, Oct 13, 2015.

  1. Taure

    Taure Magical Core Enthusiast Prestige DLP Supporter

    Joined:
    Mar 5, 2006
    Messages:
    948
    Location:
    United Kingdom
    High Score:
    13,152
    I thought I'd make a thread for referendum-related news and discussion, as we're going to be facing a steady flow of it for the next two years. Both "In" and "Out" camps have now launched their official campaigns and Cameron is facing calls to accelerate his negotiations by setting out a clear and detailed set of demands.

    This opinion piece from the FT basically summarises my thoughts on the matter.

     
  2. World

    World Oberstgruppenführer Moderator DLP Supporter

    Joined:
    Apr 19, 2006
    Messages:
    3,176
    Location:
    Axis of Evil (Original)
    So if the Leavers win, the result is probably going to be Britain still paying membership fees and observing most of the EU laws? I could live with that, although I'd obviously prefer a proper British integration into the EU. Just pay the full price, dammit.
     
  3. Taure

    Taure Magical Core Enthusiast Prestige DLP Supporter

    Joined:
    Mar 5, 2006
    Messages:
    948
    Location:
    United Kingdom
    High Score:
    13,152
    Yes to observing most EU laws, but no to membership fees. EEA membership is considerably cheaper than EU membership (one prediction puts Britain's EEA membership at €2 billion a year instead of the current €11.6 billion a year).

    The real sticking point, however, is that the EEA is still part of free movement of people. I imagine an exited UK would want to negotiate limits to that (e.g. a quota), which throws everything else up in the air.
     
  4. Sesc

    Sesc Slytherin at Heart Moderator

    Joined:
    Dec 20, 2007
    Messages:
    5,058
    Location:
    Hbg., Germany
    You'll want to keep a close eye on Switzerland, then. After they voted for a restriction/caps of the free movement, and a lot of blustering on both sides, it's gotten very quiet indeed. And the reason for that, from what I can see, is not that people are busy working -- but that they have nothing to show for their efforts.

    Juncker and politicians from member states have been perfectly clear: There will be no caps, quotas or otherwise limitations -- or else, there will be no treaties (recall, there was an if-->then clause in the treaties with Switzerland, which invalidates them in case Switzerlands implements caps unilaterally).

    My best guess is that eventually, the government stops pretending it can have the cake and eat it too, and the Swiss will vote again, with the finished proposal of either amended treaties (there were some other points that were less contentious) or caps.

    In that light, I see the possibility of Britain getting anything like it as subzero.
     
  5. newageofpower

    newageofpower Professor DLP Supporter

    Joined:
    Feb 24, 2015
    Messages:
    477
    Are you and Sesc describing immigration?
     
  6. Taure

    Taure Magical Core Enthusiast Prestige DLP Supporter

    Joined:
    Mar 5, 2006
    Messages:
    948
    Location:
    United Kingdom
    High Score:
    13,152
    We're talking about the free movement of workers and EU citizens, which isn't quite the same thing as immigration (immigrants intend to stay).
     
  7. newageofpower

    newageofpower Professor DLP Supporter

    Joined:
    Feb 24, 2015
    Messages:
    477
    I don't see any objections to citizenry (other than for security reasons) but yeah, I can see resistance to free movement of workers.
     
  8. Rhett

    Rhett Fourth Year

    Joined:
    Jan 28, 2011
    Messages:
    139
    I think we'll see movement against 'free movement'. If the UK are to remain part of the EU, we need to take our place as one of it's leaders, if not the pre-eminent one. Britain's economy will overtake Germany's, and along with our soft and hard power, we can play a major role in streamlining the EU.

    On the other hand, I don't fear us leaving the EU. Much of our current relationship with the EU will remain about the same. If smaller nations can have deals with the EU, so can Europe's most powerful nation. Whether we are in or out, Britain is an essential cog in Europe.
     
  9. World

    World Oberstgruppenführer Moderator DLP Supporter

    Joined:
    Apr 19, 2006
    Messages:
    3,176
    Location:
    Axis of Evil (Original)
    I'll believe that when it happens. Or maybe when a non-english research center predicts the same ;)

    Sure Britain can become a major power in the EU. But I don't see them embracing the European idea any time soon. Even if the Referendum overwhelmingly says to stay in the EU, the British way will still be the half-ass way that Taure's post has described. It'll probably work for you, but you're not going to be an essential cog that way.
     
  10. Taure

    Taure Magical Core Enthusiast Prestige DLP Supporter

    Joined:
    Mar 5, 2006
    Messages:
    948
    Location:
    United Kingdom
    High Score:
    13,152
    It's actually the OECD prediction. OECD forecasts that the UK's GDP will pass Germany's in 2033:

    https://data.oecd.org/gdp/gdp-long-term-forecast.htm#indicator-chart

    (Click long-term forecast on the side bar, then go to chart view to see the breakdown.

    That said, there are certain caveats.

    Firstly it assumes that UK productivity returns to historical levels rather than stays in its current slump. There are signs of a return to increasing productivity but it's not there yet.

    Secondly it assumes continued immigration into the UK at current levels and continued membership of the EU. Also no Scottish independence.

    Thirdly the increase is largely a function of population. Germany's GDP per capita is still higher than the UK's in the prediction.

    Fourthly with large numbers of refugees entering Germany and boosting its population, the prediction may no longer hold.

    Fifthly with the current signs of global economic slowdown and secular stagnation, all predictions are highly suspect anyway.
     
  11. World

    World Oberstgruppenführer Moderator DLP Supporter

    Joined:
    Apr 19, 2006
    Messages:
    3,176
    Location:
    Axis of Evil (Original)
    Ah, I only found a mention of a CEBR study.

    If Germany's per capita is still higher in that prediction, that means that the UK's workforce needs to exceed Germany's. Do they really expect a population increase of 20 million (10 million workers, plus dependants) in the next 15 years?
     
  12. Rhett

    Rhett Fourth Year

    Joined:
    Jan 28, 2011
    Messages:
    139
    Funnily enough, I am actually more German than British, although culturally British. From what I've seen of the two nations, the UK has the potential to really get the best out of it's people, but it would take a major shift in policy and thinking to get there. Germany is already ahead on that path.
    I'm of course talking about welfare bribery, where too many are not interested in aspiration. It all starts at school when they can't be bothered enough and of course that has consequences for future job prospects. Germany's apprenticeship schemes should be an example to strive for.
    I'll give you an example of just how screwed up it is. The SNP in Scotland constantly go on about Scotland's riches in resources, and how they'll be the second Norway. Yet their major gripes are increasing welfare and removing austerity. Norway, on it's 3rd try and after 6 years of creating it's famed 'oil fund', only managed to start saving once their economy went into surplus. So by rejecting austerity, an independent Scotland would have no hope of matching their boasts. Natural resources do not guarantee wealth, as so many countries have discovered.
     
  13. Aekiel

    Aekiel Angle of Mispeling Prestige DLP Supporter

    Joined:
    Mar 16, 2006
    Messages:
    838
    Location:
    The Mouth of Ports
    High Score:
    9,373
    Norway's oil fund doesn't translate directly into funds for the government because they've set up what amounts to a gigantic pension scheme for the entire nation. All the money from their North Sea oil fields goes directly into that and is protected by numerous laws and regulations so that it can't be used for day to day spending.
     
  14. Rhett

    Rhett Fourth Year

    Joined:
    Jan 28, 2011
    Messages:
    139
    Yes, and it can be used in an emergency. The point is that the SNP think they can duplicate Norway's success with their current policies. People like them are intent on promoting envy against the rich, when that is not the true battlefield. People shouldn't envy the rich, they should aspire to join them. The battle for the rest is the living wage.

    On a related matter, it never ceases to amaze me that people keep stating with bitterness, "the rich just get richer!". Of course that will happen! Money breeds money.
     
  15. McDonkey1

    McDonkey1 Squib

    Joined:
    Apr 11, 2015
    Messages:
    7
    I would like to see us leave, as it would be interesting. However Cameron is becoming something of an expert in winning referendums with fear.
     
  16. Taure

    Taure Magical Core Enthusiast Prestige DLP Supporter

    Joined:
    Mar 5, 2006
    Messages:
    948
    Location:
    United Kingdom
    High Score:
    13,152
    And the USA comes out swinging:

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics...-it-could-face-trade-barriers-if-it-leaves-eu

     
  17. Seratin

    Seratin Proudmander Prestige DLP Supporter

    Joined:
    Oct 14, 2007
    Messages:
    1,259
    Location:
    Dún na ngall
    High Score:
    3,792
    So much for the special relationship.
     
  18. Taure

    Taure Magical Core Enthusiast Prestige DLP Supporter

    Joined:
    Mar 5, 2006
    Messages:
    948
    Location:
    United Kingdom
    High Score:
    13,152
    Well, we did have that affair with China...

    (But seriously, fuck the "special relationship". It never existed. What ever came of it? Afghanistan and Iraq wars, GCHQ bending over for the NSA, massively costly defence projects like the F-35... no trade deals, not even diplomatic assistance in the Falklands War, the Suez crisis.)
     
  19. Seratin

    Seratin Proudmander Prestige DLP Supporter

    Joined:
    Oct 14, 2007
    Messages:
    1,259
    Location:
    Dún na ngall
    High Score:
    3,792
    Well you did get NFL games in London and the London special of Friends...

    No but in all seriousness I see where you're coming from. Britain has continually got shafted like a battered wife.
     
  20. Hachi

    Hachi Death Eater

    Joined:
    Sep 5, 2010
    Messages:
    927
    Location:
    In the Zone
    I'm not convinced the UK leaving would benefit them (or us in the EU, for that matter), but if they want to leave, who are we to deny them.

    It'd certainly be an interesting time to be in.

    PS: that 'speshul relationship'? Hahaha oh my sides.jpg

    Come on now. The UK should know better.