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British EU Referendum Thread

Discussion in 'Politics' started by Taure, Oct 13, 2015.

  1. Oment

    Oment The Betrayer

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  2. Mordecai

    Mordecai Drunken Scotsman Prestige DLP Supporter

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    The job I am currently in means I'm in the middle of procurement related stuff. And honestly, the decision they've reached is perfectly reasonable under the current regs, and under existing practice. They put out the tender last year, and it was on price almost entirely. So anyone can bid on it and they have to go by the criteria they've set. Its tough if it then doesn't match the political agenda, but they should have thought of that when the published the tender last year!
     
  3. Taure

    Taure Magical Core Enthusiast Prestige DLP Supporter

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    Yes, in France and Germany they use national security exemptions under EU law to give passport manufacture to domestic companies. This is just another example of the UK government not taking advantage of measures available to it under EU law, then blaming the EU for something which was in fact the UK's own fault. I do wonder what the new scapegoat will be after Brexit (probably still the EU lol).
     
  4. Mordecai

    Mordecai Drunken Scotsman Prestige DLP Supporter

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    At the office we'd been thinking that procurement law would likely be quite low on the agenda to change after Brexit. But with this, I can see the Government deciding to rush through some changes to benefit UK business. Maybe do a big upgrade on Contracts Finder so that its actually functional, and not require publication of high value notices to the OJEU. If they do that, and allow authorities to restrict participation to the UK firms only on a broader basis...I could see that proving quite popular with businesses in general and the media.

    On the other hand, the EU would be very unimpressed.
     
  5. Sesc

    Sesc Slytherin at Heart Moderator

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    We're moving towards the climax at a snail's pace. (Alternative title: When the can-kicked-down-the-road's road ends.)

    So, to recapitulate: The cabinet is split between two options and can't decide. Meanwhile, the EU has already rejected either of those. And the parliament has definitely no majority for a hard brexit -- but perhaps no majority for any other Brexit, either. It's the bedspreat that's too small to cover everything at once, but instead of pulling on two sides, people try to pull it into no less than four different directions simultaneously.

    I'd link the current state of polling just in case, but it virtually looks like the results from the elections last year, so that's no help either.

    I'd say you're stuck.
     
  6. Sesc

    Sesc Slytherin at Heart Moderator

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    The end of the road is coming closer.
    So we have a cabinet where it's fine if you call your PM's plans "crazy" in your favourite Mail. We have a Corbyn that doesn't know what he wants, which is a little better, but not much, than a May that tries to be schizophrenic in her wants in order to keep her party together ... which either way means others pick up the steering wheel. Time waits for no one. Tick tock.

    Realistically, you'd think the single market-amendment gets voted down in the Commons, but May will have to make some serious concessions in order to get there. The customs partnership (leaving aside the EU issues) would appear to be the starting point for a negotiation. Into the single market direction. Not into Jacob Rees-Mogg's one.
     
  7. Sesc

    Sesc Slytherin at Heart Moderator

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    I'm amazed and really admire May's ability to extend roads down which cans can be kicked. Just when you think today is the day ...

    So, to recap: The government scheduled the Lord amendments for today. 10 minutes before the vote on the meaningful-vote amendment (which would virtually kill no-deal Brexit and put the parliament in the driver's seat), she realised she didn't have the votes, and made a major concession -- reintroducing most of the meaningful vote part as a gov amendment in the Lords. That got her some 20 votes, a coalition victory of 21 (plus five Labours), and a week or so in time.

    After that, when the pro-EU side moved from satisfaction to overly happy happy dances, the hard-Brexit side exploded and some other parts of the government backtracked.

    Really, the only reason May is still around is because both sides think if they toppled her, they might get someone from the respective other side, which would be worse. At one point, she will have to pick a side, however. We keep waiting patiently.
     
  8. Arthellion

    Arthellion Ban(ned) Arthellion

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    So what you're saying is...

    [​IMG]
     
  9. blob

    blob DA Member

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    I wonder what's the mood on the ground concerning the so-called 'special relationship' and the... questionable nature of the US lining up 'first in line' for a trade deal. For all of May's futile attempts at diplomacy, a trade war is far more realistic than a trade deal at the moment, so Brexit happens precisely at the time where UK would want to be in the EU. It's by no means certain that Trump won't go even more full-retard in time, which could well cause another depression depending on how much of his insanity would actually be implemented.

    As to May herself, well, she continues to amaze. So do the numerous pro-Brexit flag-bearers that by now scurry for the hills like rats, with a number seeking out foreign visas and the like. It's all so tragically stupid and hypocritical that it makes me wonder if everybody following politics isn't masochistic by nature.

    @edit - at least I get to be happy that more people realize how much of a cunt that buffoon BlowJo, uh, Boris Johnson, is. You know you've gone off the deep end when you praise Donald Trump of all people, and the fact that a Foreign Secretary has so much contempt and disregard for NI and the border is just ridiculous.
     
    Last edited: Jun 12, 2018
  10. Sesc

    Sesc Slytherin at Heart Moderator

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    This really tickles my sense for strategic political machinations. From the Guardian:
    So, random thoughts that have no bearing on what's potentially happening:
    • Parliament is quite powerful. For instance, there can't be fresh elections without 2/3 majority, or a no confidence vote (simple majority)
    • So parliament can keep its composition of the current, hung state for a good while if it so desires
    • On the other hand, there is clearly a majority for a soft Brexit, and as the article notes, an increasing willingness to use that majority
    • In other words, there could emerge a soft-Brexit bipartisan coalition that simultaneously keeps a lame duck May around
    All they'd have to do is to support the vote of no confidence, while at the same time block the hard or semi-hard Brexit legislation. All May could do would be to resign -- but then the next conservative PM would face the same problem, or possibly even fail to get elected in parliament, and as the same could be true for any Labour candidate, in the end, May might even be forced to stay around, because you can't have no PM.

    That's really exciting. I'm looking forward to some interesting gambits during the next half year, don't disappoint me :D
     
  11. Sesc

    Sesc Slytherin at Heart Moderator

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    Next retreat to fix the party (Chequers next Friday), Michael Gove tearing up Brexit papers in a huff ... lol. And dear god.
    That's just pathetic. I mean, come on. If that's what it is, kick this incompetent government into the orbit, and Barnier comes to London to make a deal with parliament. The eggheads sit down together, and the deal is done before Christmas. This, though, is like a particularly retarded version of playing Chinese whispers. The EU says what it wants to May, who says what she thinks this means to her cabinet, who says what it thinks this means to Jacob Rees-Mogg and Anna Soubry -- and this takes a month, by the way -- who then consider if they like it (they don't), so the say to cabinet what they want to hear, which says what it thinks it heard to May, who ...

    I mean, does anyone see this working, just seeing that idiotic pipeline?

    But of course, all May says here is that she has no deal for her Brexit, and that's why the EU should move, or risk ... May taking her own country hostage? Like, what.


    I may have said this before, but what you really would need, here, is a complete coalition of all parties in Westminster, a government with the only purpose of delivering Brexit. Then you'd narrow it down to the middle-of-the-road approach that wins the most/a majority of votes from all MPs, ignore the rioting Hard-Brexiters and Stay-Shouters, and presto, a deal.

    Of course, that would require putting country before party. It's possible to dream, I suppose.
     
  12. Oment

    Oment The Betrayer

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    Speaking of rioting Hard-Brexiters: David Davis has resigned.

    Going to be an interesting day in the UK.

    -edit- Dominic Raab, former Housing minister, will take up the mantle now.

    -edit 2- And now Boris Johnson has left the cabinet.

     
    Last edited: Jul 9, 2018
  13. Sesc

    Sesc Slytherin at Heart Moderator

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    And Boris Johnson follows right after. I knew there was a reason I was waiting for something to happen after Chequers before posting :3

    So it looks (gasp) like finally, the end of the road is there. May has also been briefing LibDems and Labour MPs. I'm not daring to hope, but see above for the best of all Brexit worlds. First, May has to survive this week. Probably against Boris.

    Meanwhile, Jacob Rees-Mogg said there would be an MP majority for his hard Brexit deal ... if the only other option was no deal. Nice to see he thinks extortion is a fine tactic to use. And, of course, this precise reasoning is why the reasonable conservative MPs want to have a say about the deal before there is a deal.
     
  14. h2o

    h2o Professor

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    I feel for the friends I have in England (They're from London and voted remain) but a part of me is also kinda enjoying the clusterfuck that is Brexit. Makes me think of that South Park episode where Earth is just a galactic TV show:

    "This episode on Earth, the brits choice to leave the E.U leads to even more wacky hijinks! Watch as how this once great empire crumbles from within while on the other side of the Atlantic, Trump starts trade wars with China; and his allies!"

    Also, surely this should be the Brexit mascot?
    [​IMG]
     
  15. Darth_Revan

    Darth_Revan Secret Squirrel Prestige DLP Supporter

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    Jeremy Hunt is the new Foreign Secretary, promoted from Health.

    Good going, Jeremy. We knew you'd amount to something.
     
  16. Taure

    Taure Magical Core Enthusiast Prestige DLP Supporter

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    https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-...on-sunday-idUSKBN1K412G?utm_source=reddit.com

    Lots of Remainers thinking this actually means there's a real chance of cancelling Brexit, rather than (as with everything else on the UK side of this process) Theresa May simply saying things to try to secure the backing of her party.
     
  17. blob

    blob DA Member

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    To be honest, at this point I no longer have any idea what the actual - realistic - plan is and how the hell do the Tories want to achieve it. Or even if there is one in the first place.

    So not unlike May, I suppose.

    @edit - I am uncertain whether the complete meltdown if the A50 was outright cancelled would be worth witnessing or not. On one hand, it would be the best popcorn since Varoufakis, the greek Voldemort guy, managed to have a decent argument and still completely lose any and all negotiations by scaring the ever-loving shit out of the flimsy middle-managerial politicians all over EU. On the other, the vigorous punditry and general unbearableness that would follow... I can scarcely imagine.
     
    Last edited: Jul 15, 2018
  18. Sesc

    Sesc Slytherin at Heart Moderator

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    The actual plan is the Whitepaper that was released after Chequers -- it took two years to have a plan, any sort of plan -- and it's dead already, because now we see what I predicted some time ago: There is no majority for a hard Brexit in parliament -- and not for any other sort of Brexit, either.

    For a hard Brexit, there are at least a dozen plus Tories who want to remain (depending on how hard "hard" is) that will sink it, and for May's Chequers plan, there are some 50 plus Tories who really really want a hard Brexit that will sink it. So May would need support from Labour, but propping up May is what Corbyn will do right after he decides to privatise the NHS -- leaving aside that there are factual reasons Labour moderates don't like the plan, it's not soft enough.

    TL;DR, a hard Brexit isn't happening, a really soft Brexit with support from Labour will cost May her office and isn't happening, and the compromise-Brexit is hated by everyone equally, and isn't happening.

    Nothing is happening. You might get your second referendum, after all. In the end, what's the difference -- voting on an issue until you like the result is bad, sure, but how is having general elections until politicians deem it possible to work with the majority it produces any better?
     
  19. Taure

    Taure Magical Core Enthusiast Prestige DLP Supporter

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    Either that or stumble into hard Brexit through sheer incompetence.
     
  20. Darth_Revan

    Darth_Revan Secret Squirrel Prestige DLP Supporter

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    Are you more, less, or equally sure about the possibility or impossibility of a re-vote than you were, say, six months ago?
     
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