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British EU Referendum Thread

Discussion in 'Politics' started by Taure, Oct 13, 2015.

  1. Taure

    Taure Magical Core Enthusiast Prestige DLP Supporter

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    In a way, I was hoping for no deal. In a no deal scenario, one can imagine the UK rejoining the EU relatively quickly as the consequences would be so visible and chaotic. With a deal I suspect we'll just trundle along, forever stuck in a shitty limbo.
     
  2. Celestin

    Celestin Master of Death

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    A quick question because my google-fu isn't helping, does not-hard-Brexit deal need to be confirmed on a national level of very EU country or does it only need the EU administration approval?
     
  3. Taure

    Taure Magical Core Enthusiast Prestige DLP Supporter

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    Article 50(2) TEU:

    Article 218(3) TEFU:

    Note that the Council referred to in these passages is the Council of the European Union (aka the Council of Ministers), not the European Council (which is in turn not to be confused with the Council of Europe, which has nothing to do with the EU).

    So essentially, the Council will vote by qualified majority. This requires the vote to pass by at least 55% of member states by number (i.e. 16) AND by at least 65% of the population of the EU. However, if fewer than 4 member states vote against it, it will pass anyway, even if the population requirement is not met.
     
    Last edited: Nov 13, 2018
  4. Sesc

    Sesc Slytherin at Heart Moderator

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    Well, the Southpark Get-Rich-??? scheme was never more appropriate than here, lol. ??? is literally the plan, so it's entirely possible this thing gets voted down in parliament at the latest. Rees-Mogg's first reaction is "middle muddle fiddle fuddle". Now if Soubry or Grieve declare it "fuddle fiddle muddle middle", to turn on the firepower from opposite ends, you can basically skip the vote and just crash out.

    Edit: Keep in mind that no one knows yet what's actually in the deal. Johnson and Rees-Mogg and the DUP just proceed on the assumptions that's it's a terrible deal they can't support because why not. And as May -- once again -- missed her moment (I think she's still not given an official statement), they have all the (air)time in the world to themselves.

    Naturally, you can't sell a deal that way, if you let it get torn up before the ink is even dry.
     
  5. Quiddity

    Quiddity Unspeakable

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    I was hoping for no-deal because I expected it would end with a cancellation as they plead for "more time," which continued indefinitely.

    Alas and alack.
     
  6. Sesc

    Sesc Slytherin at Heart Moderator

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    And the manoeuvring on the second point:
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/nov/15/theresa-may-britain-mps-brexit
     
  7. Oment

    Oment The Betrayer

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  8. Aekiel

    Aekiel Angle of Mispeling Prestige DLP Supporter

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    We're going to get a no deal Brexit, no doubt about it now.
     
  9. Seratin

    Seratin Proudmander Prestige DLP Supporter

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    I was watching the session in the chamber of commons today and judging from the questions posed to May, the vote has no chance of passing with about 8/10 or more even from her own party actively denouncing it.

    Highlight was Jacob Reese Mogg's question where he essentially launched a vote of no confidence in the most civil manner ever recorded, then bailed to send a letter to the 22.

    Teresa May could be gone by tonight because there's no way they don't have the 48 letters required to launch the no confidence vote.
     
  10. Arthellion

    Arthellion Supreme Mugwump

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    The Queen must be getting tired of forming new governments...
     
  11. Seratin

    Seratin Proudmander Prestige DLP Supporter

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    She's about to have a press conference but there's no indication she's gonna step down. Reminds me of the "This is fine" meme.
     
  12. Oment

    Oment The Betrayer

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    May seems combative and fairly confident that any vote of no-confidence would be the equivalent of cutting the nose to spite the face or some similar act.

    No confirmed new Brexit secretary yet, by the way. Might be a weekend thing.
     
  13. Seratin

    Seratin Proudmander Prestige DLP Supporter

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    Michael Gove has been offered the job but he'll only take it if he gets to renegotiate the agreement.
     
  14. Sesc

    Sesc Slytherin at Heart Moderator

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    There is a difference between enough votes to have a vote of no confidence (48), and enough votes to win a vote of no convidence (half of the party). Everyone hates May, but everyone hates doing it themselves as well. It's just a shit job that doesn't get paid nearly enough to be attractive these days. "Well, and what did you do the last years? Oh, I was that PM who fucked up Brexit because it was intrinsically non-un-fuck-upable." Yeah, no. I think even May hates her job. Dunno why she does it. Perhaps she hates someone else doing it even more, or she has nowhere else she could be.

    The more likely outcome: May remains PM, has the vote on her deal, that fails, and what happens then depends on so many random factors that no one can predict what the end result is. Everything from no Brexit to hard Brexit to a spontaneous implosion in a black hole that swallows Parliament.
     
  15. Sesc

    Sesc Slytherin at Heart Moderator

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    A little back-of-the-envelope maths that probably everyone in Whitehall is doing as a party game atm: Accounting for absences (suspensions, Sinn Fein (worthy of a rant on its own) and speakers), the magic number in Parliament is 320. Of that, on its own, the Tories have 316, the DUP provides 10 ==> 326.

    The DUP, as it stands, I'd qualify as a toss-up. Forster said she won't accept anything that treats NI and the rest of the UK differently. On the other hand, NI and the rest of the UK are already treated differently and Forster isn't dumb enough not to know this, and the backstop only adds moderately more differences, because the whole of the UK would stay in some kind of customs union. Certain goods would get additional checks at Irish Sea-ports, most wouldn't. Let's be generous and hand their votes to May.

    For the same reason the backstop works for the DUP, then, it doesn't for the European Research Group, the "Brexiteers": the whole of the UK would stay in some kind of customs union. The usual suspects claimed it has up to 80 votes, before downgrading to 40, but in face of the pressure of May's authority (less so) and the graveness of the situation (more so), their numbers would dwindle. Down to what? 40, 30, 20? Certainly more than 6, however.

    So already, May has no own majority, but there's also the Remainers. Jo Johnson was the latest to resign, I doubt people like him will then turn around and vote for this deal, after all. Still, some might, so let's add half a dozen.

    In other words, May needs -- optimistically? -- 20 or so Labour votes, because all the other small parties are going to vote against. Looking back at some really serious votes on the Brexit bill, she got like 5. And those include people like Kate Hoey, who, amazingly enough, had this to say about the current deal: https://labourlist.org/2018/11/kate...t-panders-to-the-irish-governments-hypocrisy/

    The entire thing is full of nonsensical claims (no one ever defined a 'hard' border? No one has said they want to erect a hard border, so it's not coming, and also the Irish side has already erected the hard border that is not coming for fishing, which means it's hypocritical, because doing what it says it will do is bullying? ...???), but the bottomline is that Ms. Hoey really does not like this deal -- as in, it's not Brexit enough, not it's not Remain enough --, and is not going to support it:
    Bottomline: If you can't count on Labour votes because your Brexit is not Brexit enough, then I fail to see which Labour votes you intend to get -- let alone one or two dozen of them.
     
  16. Darth_Revan

    Darth_Revan Secret Squirrel Prestige DLP Supporter

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    Anything the Government does to make it 'more Brexity' will lose them votes from Remainers, and vice versa. The same goes for wooing pro-Brexit Labor.

    I am still frankly amazed that the 'Deal' is basically to become an EU-vassal state, and that this is somehow acceptable to anyone.
     
  17. Sesc

    Sesc Slytherin at Heart Moderator

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    Funnily enough, in terms of what is possible to resolve things that fundamentally can't be resolved ("take back control of our borders" vs. "no one wants a hard border in NI", see the Hoey text), this is actually a really good deal. There's a short CNN article that nails it quite well. I would concur that it reaches the optimum of what can be reached.

    I mean, there's all sorts of reasons this is awful, starting with the fact that it is a blind Brexit with only a handful of vague lines on what is actually supposed to come next (the backstop with the "vassal state" that takes up a large chunk of the space isn't supposed to come next, that's why it's a backstop), but that's not the issue, I guess. You need some way to resolve contradicting aims -- this is it.


    It's just that it's hard to see for which group this is attractive -- Remainers can rightly claim it's worse than staying in the EU (obviously dealing with the EU is smoother on the whole when you are actually in the EU, that's the reason the states created the EU), and Brexiteers don't care about NI and would just as soon see the border closed as staying open (as long as they get their awesome trade deals with the rest of the world, which they can't, if the backstop happens). So you're lost in no man's land.

    Usually, a good compromise is, actually, hated by everyone. But this time around the positions appear to be that binary that the only thing everyone can agree on is to not agree to a compromise. (Though I still maintain that there is a majority for a Norway-style plan in Parliament. You could certainly coax the SNP and LibDems etc. to back this, and together with Labour -5, you'd need a dozen Remain-Tories. Absent party pressure, they exist.)

    Edit: Well, so much for that. Add 10, I guess.
     
  18. Download

    Download Dark Lord DLP Supporter

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  19. Sesc

    Sesc Slytherin at Heart Moderator

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    The whacking begins.

    May is now the first PM presiding over a government found to be in contempt of parliament, before that was defeated even on a compromise motion to prevent that outcome, and finally lost in a vote that asserts the new withdrawal proposal, after the current agreement has failed, can be amended by parliament.

    I think a Brit would stir his tea and declare this day unusual. And there's four more days too.

    Effectively, the last item should move the decision from "this deal or no deal" towards "this deal or no Brexit". It'll be interesting to see whether the Brexiteers follow along that reasoning; if they do, that might just save May, possibly in a second vote. I think their ideological approach will stand in the way, though, too many of them are so pig-headed that they can't get over voting for something not 100% Brexit, even if that risks no Brexit -- or, even worse, truly believe what they say when they argue the government could ignore whatever parliament amends. (Hypothetically yes, de-facto ludicrous, that's the same universe in which red busses forever drive through countries and Brexit is the easiest deal in human history.)
     
  20. Oz

    Oz For Zombie. Moderator DLP Supporter

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