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British EU Referendum Thread

Discussion in 'Politics' started by Taure, Oct 13, 2015.

  1. Sesc

    Sesc Slytherin at Heart Moderator

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    May would score an own goal on a penalty without keeper.

    May: So we need to back my deal and respect the wish of the people! Look at the vote for Welsh devolution, which was won by only 0.3%, but implemented.

    People (looking at the vote for Welsh devolution): ... May voted against it, and the Tories campaigned on a platform including a second referendum to overturn it in the next general election.


    It's so sad it's not even funny anymore. And tomorrow's the day, and the question is whether May will lose by more or less than 100 votes, after which everyone knows what they don't want, but not what they do want :confused:
     
  2. Sesc

    Sesc Slytherin at Heart Moderator

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    More. 230 votes. That's a 2/3 supermajority not backing May's withdrawal agreement.

    And because we long, long ago left sanity behind, tomorrow May will be comfortably backed by her party in a no confidence vote. Coming up:

    - The EU nixes renegotiating
    - Article 50 is extended
    - Sanity returns and a grand, cross-party coalition agrees on a Norway-style soft Brexit
     
  3. KHAAAAAAAN!!

    KHAAAAAAAN!! Troll in the Dungeon Prestige DLP Supporter

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    I imagine it must be interesting being Jeremy Corbyn today. Would love to be a fly on that wall.

    Press 1: To explode government and seize power.
    Press 2: To carry on.
     
  4. Oment

    Oment The Betrayer

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    May showing that she is a leader of this era today: incompetent, incoherent, though probably not incontinent.
     
  5. Download

    Download Dark Lord DLP Supporter

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    Time to watch my father who hasn't lived in the UK in nearly 30 years have an aneurysm because the Conservatives (a party he has hated his whole life) have gone soft and won't "keep the muzzies out" and won't "stop that Islamic-fascist sympathising Merkel".

    I shit you not, I mentioned the other week that a hard Irish border would break the Good Friday agreement and potentially start the Troubles up again. He called what I said lunatic paranoia and the idea that someone would fight over "that" ridiculous. Not five minutes later he's talking about how if the Conservatives back out of Brexit there will be an armed revolution where the poor working class will take over and hang them in the streets.
     
    Last edited: Jan 15, 2019
  6. Nevermind

    Nevermind Professor

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    As a German I feel somewhat obligated to point out that Chancellor Merkel is not in any way "Islamic-fascist sympathising." That being said, there are enough gullible doofuses over here who honestly believe that tripe.

    For what it’s worth, German coverage of May’s newest disaster ranged from "hard Brexit almost unavoidable" over "Article 50 extension" to "People’s Vote" as the most likely alternatives, depending on which correspondent they happened to have on camera at the moment. That’s actually more of a sad observation than anything else, come to think of it.

    So I guess that for the moment, all we know is that we know nothing?
     
  7. Download

    Download Dark Lord DLP Supporter

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    Yeah, well I can't exactly figure out what my dad believes, but I think it's something along the lines of allowing Muslims in to waken the rest of the EU so Germany can strong arm other EU nations or some shit. Basically Hitler comparisons with an Germany takeover. He once made a comment about what WW2 vets would think of Germany "winning" 70 years later.

    My grandfather who still can't stop complaining about "the Japs" and the Germans over WW2 (he was 16 or 17 when the war ended, if the war had gone on he would probably have ended up serving) think my dad is being an idiot over the whole thing.
     
  8. Darth_Revan

    Darth_Revan Secret Squirrel Prestige DLP Supporter

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    ...But it was Germany who took them in. Wut.
     
  9. Agayek

    Agayek Fourth Champion DLP Supporter

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    If I'm understanding @Download 's comments correctly, that's the point. The idea being a three step plan:

    1) Merkel invites refugees and, through the EU, strong arms all of Europe to accept their "fair share"
    2) The refugees will necessarily weaken the economies and unity of those other nations because of all the crime, rape, and brown-ness they bring with them
    3) Germany will swoop in with their Superior Army of Ubermenschen and conquer Europe, managing in less than a decade when both of the bloodiest wars in human history proved insufficient to the task.
     
  10. Download

    Download Dark Lord DLP Supporter

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    I think it's more economic and political warfare than actual warfare, but that is basically what I understand my dad believes. He basically believes that Germany opened the door and then forced other nations to take their "fair share".
     
  11. Arthellion

    Arthellion Dark Lord

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    Pff

    Britain always gets their fair share

     
  12. Dagro

    Dagro Second Year

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    I thought it was Hitler-Merkel's plan to 'exchange' the pure native europeans with filthy dirty muslims because of reasons. Seriously the amount of straight faced conspiracy shit I have read since 2015 is mind blowing. My sympathy Download.

    @Topic: Brexit is as confusing as ever, glad there is atleast one thing you can rely on in this. :3
     
  13. Taure

    Taure Magical Core Enthusiast Prestige DLP Supporter

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    @Download For the sake of accuracy, I should say that a hard border between ROI and NI doesn't actually "break" the Good Friday Agreement.

    Copy of the GFA here: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/the-belfast-agreement

    Not a single mention of the border in the entire GFA. Of course, certain politicians like to say that a hard border breaks the GFA but -- what's new -- politicians lie, and the media rarely calls them out on it. What the politicians should say is that a hard border goes against the spirit of the peace process.

    With respect to the current state of affairs, I remain convinced that the most likely outcome is still the UK leaving the EU on May's deal. After all other options (including a second vote on May's deal) have been exhausted and fail to win a majority, the clock will be running down towards automatic no-deal Brexit. At that point it will become a game of chicken. The government will tell Leavers to support May's deal or else she will revoke article 50, and will tell Remainers to support May's deal or else Britain will leave with no deal. It will then go to a third vote and pass at the last possible moment.

    Personally my preferred outcomes are:

    1. Remain
    2. No deal Brexit
    3. May's deal
     
    Last edited: Jan 16, 2019
  14. Sesc

    Sesc Slytherin at Heart Moderator

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    Don't see that, though. In any normal times -- yes. But May is so weak, so unable to convince anyone of anything -- she's a PM with a ridiculous, bombastic failure, the largest defeat in modern history on the single issue her administration exists for, while at the same time not going to get ousted by parliament -- that now, you basically have an Ancient Rome-style senate democracy. "Government" barely exists anymore, the cabinet is irrevocably split in strive and quarrel, and the PM is a lame duck. So parliament dictates the terms. May is only kept for convenience. (Incidentally, I can't imagine not resigning. How lowly do you have to regard yourself to put up with that?)

    The last obstacle now is Corbyn. His preferred way of dealing with Brexit is to change the topic and talk about how great a PM he would be; but I hope that he, too, is going to get steamrolled by the events. A concensus should form in parliament about what kind of deal they would like, and if May doesn't want to invoke a constitutional crisis out of sheer petulance, she will either implement it, or get out of the way for someone who will.


    And the first step of this is forcing May to extend the article 50 periode, of course. It's funny, in a way -- of all the things not coming true, this one thing does: Parliament is taking back control.
     
  15. Download

    Download Dark Lord DLP Supporter

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    Except the GFA requires the UK to remove "security installations". This is generally construed to include checkpoints which would be required on a hard border.
     
  16. Glimmervoid

    Glimmervoid Groundskeeper

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    A really stretched interpretation. The security checkpoints in the GFA are the army and security service check points that use to dot NI. Including Customs posts in this doesn't make sense and would mean the UK is already massively in breach of the GFA and that the EU's deal would make it even more in breach.

    Why? This is the relevant part of the GFA.

    Notice that the "removal of security installations" bit doesn't put any geographic qualifier on the removal (other than NI in general). It doesn't say "removal of security installations from alone of border". If customs posts were security installations, the customs posts (and related posts, such as animal checks) that already exist in NI ports would violate the GFA. Putting up more checks (as the backstop would require), would then mean even more violation.
     
  17. Chengar Qordath

    Chengar Qordath The Final Pony Prestige

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    I don't think there is any sort of consensus that can come out of Parliament on Brexit. The whole problem has been that nobody can agree on how they want to do it (not to mention the considerable chunk of MPs that really wish they could find a way not to do it). If there was anything close to a majority opinion on how to do Brexit the entire process wouldn't be such a mess in the first place.
     
  18. Taure

    Taure Magical Core Enthusiast Prestige DLP Supporter

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    @Sesc I think you're overestimating the power Parliament has. Yes, Parliament is sovereign and can overrule the government. But government has in reality held the greater power for at least a century.

    Yes, Theresa May is a very weak Prime Minister with a divided party. But she still has one very powerful weapon on her side: the ability to dictate Parliament's schedule. With a few notable exceptions (such as points of order and a vote of no confidence), Parliament can only overrule the PM if it has an opportunity to express its will, and that only happens if the government allocates time in the House of Commons for something to be debated and voted on. The general rule when it comes to Parliament is that government business takes precedence, so TM could easily just stuff the schedule with government business and effectively silence Parliament.
     
  19. Sesc

    Sesc Slytherin at Heart Moderator

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    The problem wasn't that there wasn't a majority opinion. There might not be, but in any case, this has never been tested. The problem was that (i) there wasn't a majority opinion in the Tory party, (ii) May never reached out beyond her party, and (iii) if there was a majority, it would certainly not be for a deal that adhered to May's red lines.

    It's the same issue that led to the referendum in the first place -- an exercise in trying to prevent the Tories from breaking apart. It's similar to the situation with your Freedom Caucus, until the midterms: if they were told to go fuck themselves, parliament would at once become more productive, but the conservatives would fracture. It's just that putting party over country works if you're debating regulations on hamsters in circuses, but not if the issue is as monumental as Brexit.

    @Taure: Well, we'll see. It's a mark of these days that the impossible isn't so impossible anymore. Generally, there seems to be an awful lot people can do, the question is what they actually do. Factually, if there is a majority for a deal, it's softer than May's. If May is unwilling to blur her red lines, there will be a no deal Brexit. But a no deal Brexit is the one thing parliament definitely will not allow, even at the expense of breaking precedence.

    So you're stuck; somewhere, something has to give. It becomes a question of how far May will be willing to push a confrontation between government and parliament. She is obstinate, but inviting a parliamentary crisis, if not a constitutional crisis is another step entirely -- and blatantly snubbing parliament would do that.
     
  20. someone010101

    someone010101 Groundskeeper

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    What are the odds on an extension of article 50 and the circus keeps going? If you can't make a decision, don't make one, right?
     
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