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British EU Referendum Thread

Discussion in 'Politics' started by Taure, Oct 13, 2015.

  1. Sesc

    Sesc Slytherin at Heart Moderator

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    Higher than just about anything else that might happen. Extending article 50 takes away the threat of a no deal for now, hence it's a priority.

    This would also make a showdown with the Brexit wing/ERG inevitable. But that has been coming at least since a by now largely forgotten PM tried to use a referendum to placate them.

    Edit: One example of what I meant earlier. Parliament is not going into the gentle night quietly.
    https://www.businessinsider.de/what-happens-now-theresa-mays-brexit-deal-has-been-defeated-2019-1

    And a take on the state of the parties and parliament: https://www.economist.com/britain/2019/01/16/the-great-rescrambling-of-britains-parties
     
  2. ScottPress

    ScottPress The Horny Sovereign Prestige

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  3. Oment

    Oment The Betrayer

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    Which is actually illegal in the UK. (Thanks John Oliver for teaching me that.)
     
  4. Xiph0

    Xiph0 Administrator Admin

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  5. Sesc

    Sesc Slytherin at Heart Moderator

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    In case you need a handy reminder of what the problem is, this graphic does the trick:

    NI_border.png

    I title this piece of art, Four Red Lines Make A Box. The fifth solution is the magic unicorn.
     
  6. Glimmervoid

    Glimmervoid Groundskeeper

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    That picture is simply wrong. A CU does not eliminate a need for a border. A CU, in fact, removes the need for only a tiny number of checks. This has been known for years and yet people keep saying it!

    Don't want to take my word for it? How about Michel Barnier?

    Dd07zEHVQAIozFg.jpg
    https://twitter.com/adamfleming/status/999020448053714946

    This slide shows which checks a CU would remove. The removed checks are crossed out in red. Checks that are not crossed out, remain.

    (Also UK-NI CU is a silly term. NI is part of the UK, not separate from it. If we must use a term, GB-NI CU would be far better. Also, as Taure is want to point out, nothing in the next of the Good Friday Agreement precludes a hard border, though some might argue it breaks the spirit).
     
    Last edited: Jan 22, 2019
  7. Sesc

    Sesc Slytherin at Heart Moderator

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    That graphic has simply quite the different point.

    The GFA as part of the peace process is essentially a jedi mind trick: It stops the NI conflict by allowing everyone to pretend they have the country they like. If you combine the mindsets of people, NI is simultaneously part of the Republic and of the UK. That this only works if there is no hard land border is self-evidently obvious. Without it, the GFA isn't worth the paper it's written on, and no one except hair-splitting scholars is going there. (The flipside of this is that the same is true for a border in the Irish Sea for the other side, even though perhaps less so -- NI is devolved from the rest Britain, after all -- cf. the howling by the DUP.)

    The solution is also self-evidently obvious: Don't Brexit. Regardless how you shake it, either Brexit is not happening (Norway+ is not Brexit), or the GFA is not happening. Everyone is thoroughly boxed in by red lines. That is what the graphic wants to show.


    I grant you, though, that the average Brexiteer couldn't care less about NI or any sort of agreements. I suppose that qualifies as a solution as well.
     
  8. Taure

    Taure Magical Core Enthusiast Prestige DLP Supporter

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    Well, there is one important distinction there, which is the point about compliance with international treaties. A hard border between ROI and NI is not breaking a treaty, even if it frustrates the intended effect of a treaty. While that distinction is purely semantic with respect to the Irish peace process, it is an substantial distinction with respect to whether Britain has complied with its obligations under the law of treaties. Legal compliance is, for some, something to be valued in and of itself.
     
  9. Oz

    Oz For Zombie. Moderator DLP Supporter

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    That's all well and good but good luck trying to convince the Derry man with a panel van full of fertiliser.
     
  10. Sauce Bauss

    Sauce Bauss Headmaster DLP Supporter

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    *Londonderry

    Sauce was warned for this post - Oz
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Jan 23, 2019
  11. Download

    Download Dark Lord DLP Supporter

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    [​IMG]
     
  12. Sesc

    Sesc Slytherin at Heart Moderator

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    A look at behind the scenes before the vote Tuesday, especially with regards to who sets the order of business we talked about earlier. It's infinitely more fascinating than your average parliamentaty machinations, because Britain has no written constitution, only precedence. If someone wants to do the Wizengamot political!Harry, read up.

    And if you now consider that this thing has a shot at actually happening, you get a perspective of how extraordinary the situation is. Constitutionally shocking times indeed.
     
  13. Taure

    Taure Magical Core Enthusiast Prestige DLP Supporter

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    The government always has its old standby last-resort: appoint a large number of Lords all at once, making sure you pick people who support your position, and stuff that chamber so as to shift the balance in the government's favour.
     
  14. Sesc

    Sesc Slytherin at Heart Moderator

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    Well, if we're already going there, every bill ultimately has to be accepted by the Queen. Of course scholars are arguing, but there is a case to be made that the Queen should follow the advice of Her Government, so if ...
    (There is precedent for this, as recently as 1708. And if you think you got the joke here, think again. The joke is that this isn't a joke.)

    So we're left with what was noted in the first article, if government really wants to torpedo this, it can, with a variety of tools, but holy shizzle batman if they actually go there. It's like all the absurd theoretical contemplations law students come up with in their spare time suddenly become real at once. If you do politics as a hobby it's like you got VIP tickets to your favourite movie with popcorn flat rate, but it's probably not really good for actually running a country. (On top of the fact that Brexit has sucked up all the oxygen and such unimportant things like the NHS, transportation, housing or welfare fall by the wayside for years and counting.)
     
  15. Glimmervoid

    Glimmervoid Groundskeeper

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    I don't think you need to go that far. Cooper's amendment changes the Common's rules to prevent filibustering but, for obvious reasons, it can't change the Lords' rules against filibustering. The Lords also don't have guillotine motions, meaning a few Brexiteer lords could block the entire thing. Normally the government could fall back on the Parliament Acts (or the threat there of) to break through such a blockage but that is obviously not the case here. No time for the Parliament Acts before the deadline, either the no deal deadline itself or the one day the Cooper amendment marks off for this bill.

    How an archaic quirk of the House of Lords could lead us closer to a no-deal Brexit - The Independent
     
  16. Sesc

    Sesc Slytherin at Heart Moderator

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    @Glimmervoid, yeah, there's that. Which is by far the most reasonable and not-shocking thing to try because it's the usual rules, so I think it likely they will try it, but then again,
    https://www.independent.co.uk/voice...-nick-boles-amendments-backstop-a8748131.html

    Which, again, is amazing, but see above. I've never looked into this any further, so I can't comment, but I do know that if Cooper's amendment passes and May can't help triggering it, I'll take the 5th of February off from work to watch parliament TV all day long.
     
  17. Imariel

    Imariel Death Eater DLP Supporter

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    A "no deal" brexit becomes even likelier. While the position that parliament does not want a "no deal" scenario passes the actual amendment that hinders one doesn't. Thus, if I understood correctly, if no deal is made, the UK will leave as per the treaty with no deal.

    Tusk says no renegotiation. Which is in line with what representatives has said in the past, I see no reason to suspect they'll cave at the last minute.

    the UK parliament won't approve the deal as is, thus they'll leave without a deal. Been seeing some news about spots of panic around the continent. While the UK will have its setbacks, has the rest of the union prepared? It's Swedens fifth biggest trading partner so disruptions could be amusing.
     
  18. Taure

    Taure Magical Core Enthusiast Prestige DLP Supporter

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    Going to be buying some medicine and food stocks over the course of March...
     
  19. BTT

    BTT Headmaster

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    Don't forget the toilet paper.

    On the upside, all that hiking expertise might come in very handy.
     
  20. Nazgus

    Nazgus Minister of Magic

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    ... So what are the odds of this significantly affecting me as an American studying abroad here till June? Taure's last post has me more than slightly concerned...
     
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