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British EU Referendum Thread

Discussion in 'Politics' started by Taure, Oct 13, 2015.

  1. BTT

    BTT Headmaster

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  2. Padishah Emperor

    Padishah Emperor First Year

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    So, Boris and no deal it is...
    We're fucked.
     
  3. blob

    blob Slug Club Member

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    Fuck yeah, Theresa May is gone. Now the Brits will finally have someone capable...

    <checks possible replacements>

    ... oh shit, Theresa May is gone?

    Brexit is a gift that keeps on giving. GG UK.


    I wonder if BoJo will be next. He has the support for it, both amongst the Tories and the general population, but plenty of people loathe him and have claimed they'll be leaving the party if he's chosen - which isn't a good look when the Tories are already on the brink of collapse. I'm unsure whether he'd willingly drink from the poisoned chalice that is Brexit, for that matter. Being a PM was something he's been angling for a long time, but I don't think he'd be all that happy about what it means to actually be one during such a time.

    The other choices are just as bad. Jeremy Cunt, Gove, Leadsom, maybe even Rees-Moog himself... it's impressive just how utterly unpalatable the choices for Tory leadership are. An absolute cesspool, that.

    Finally, gotta hand it to Farage. He might be a cunt but he's really good at this whole populism thing.
     
    Last edited: May 24, 2019
  4. Aekiel

    Aekiel Angle of Mispeling Prestige DLP Supporter

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    There's a sizeable portion of the Tory Party MPs that have the stance 'Anyone But Johnson' so I don't think it's as clear cut as that.

    On the other hand, the other lead candidate is Jeremy Cunt.
     
  5. Genghiz Khan

    Genghiz Khan Order Member

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    Wasn’t there a time when most Labour MPs said that about Corbyn?
     
  6. Darth_Revan

    Darth_Revan Secret Squirrel Prestige DLP Supporter

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    Otherwise known as the Trump Touch.

    I assume whomever they choose for Tory leader, it would have to be an original Brexiteer, not another reformed Remainer like May was. Ergo, Johnson or similar, and ruling out Hunt and others like him.
     
  7. Sesc

    Sesc Slytherin at Heart Moderator

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    It's generally a good bet that whoever of the two that are left standing appears to promise the more hardcore Brexit, is picked, yes.
     
  8. HMM

    HMM Squib

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    The difference is that Labour MPs have less power to choose their leader as all members vote on all candidates in an Instant Runoff system whereas in the Conservative party only MPs can vote on the initial candidates in a series of elections which eliminate all but two candidates which the members can then vote on.
     
  9. Oment

    Oment The Betrayer

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    The Tories are up to a baker's dozen candidates by now. Sharks, the lot of them. Frontrunners so far seem to be Johnson and Gove, in what is probably a good case of cosmic irony. The Guardian has an odds tracker. (Does not include the newest addition, Sam Gyimah, as of posting.)

    My gut says that, at this point, I'd go for Leadsom or Raab as the eventual winner. Johnson is probably too polarising. Gove's got the backstabbing stigma from last time still, and more to the point, I think a hard Brexiteer is far more likely to win it in the first place. (Which also dooms Hunt and Stewart from the second tier - not that Stewart's bid wasn't doomed from the start when he went against Tory climate change orthodoxy.)
     
  10. Oment

    Oment The Betrayer

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    Various Change UK MPs have gone independent. Again.

    I am shocked, shocked, I say, that what is essentially a splinter party somewhat loosely defined around perhaps two issues (one of which isn't even a particular policy issue) is splintering even more a few months in.
     
  11. Sesc

    Sesc Slytherin at Heart Moderator

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    Eh. All of ChangeUK's actions was one set of unforced errors. I certainly expected more, and am not impressed.

    Peterborough by-election tonight, and since Farage managed to convince a guy to run there who can manage to ignore most of the party he's in:
    ... it looks like the Brexit Party will pick up their first seat.

    Meanwhile, since Corbyn has succesfully managed to convince himself that it was just an EU election, and he's just one inch away of becoming PM if only he could convince the voters that he's for remaining, except when he's for leaving, the polls continue to look like this:

    [​IMG]
    That's -- right now -- no Brexit majority, and a Labour + SNP + LibDems majority. If Corbyn suddenly wanted a new referendum, that is. And since Tories read newspapers as well, only a True Brexiteer would call a general election (but then again, such a PM would be the only reason anyone would even agree to one, so in a weird way, you can't tell what is cause and what is effect).
     
  12. Oment

    Oment The Betrayer

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    Question is how this translates into actual MPs. FPTP throws curve balls up the wazoo. (See the 2017 election that had the Tories gain 5.5 % extra votes and lose 13 seats...) This can honestly be anything from Brexit 250 seats to Brexit 20 seats, and anywhere in between. Lib Dems some kind of similarly huge spread, Labour probably has a higher baseline than 20...

    There's going to be tactical voting everywhere is all I'm seeing.
     
  13. Sesc

    Sesc Slytherin at Heart Moderator

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    I mean, you can model it to look like this:

    Party/Pred Seats
    CON 54
    LAB 216
    LIB 51
    Green 1
    SNP 56
    PlaidC 5
    Brexit 249
    N.Ire 18

    Which would be the roflcopter of the century, but you can (probably) safely disregard this. If nothing else, because that's May's results. Boris would presumably shrink the Brexit Party, but as long as all that happens is moving seats back and forth, 23 missing votes are 23 missing votes. Add up Lab, Lib, SNP and for all I care Plaid and non-DUP NI and you have the 2nd Ref coalition, assuming see above.

    But Labour almost has to, because what other majority is there? All other options are nonsense. The conservatives aren't going to prop up Labour, the Remain parties aren't going to prop up the Brexit Party, so we're fresh out of options.

    Edit: Relevant.

     
  14. Darth_Revan

    Darth_Revan Secret Squirrel Prestige DLP Supporter

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  15. Taure

    Taure Magical Core Enthusiast Prestige DLP Supporter

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    Although Labour can enjoy their victory in this specific seat, the results do not look good for them once Boris has become leader of the Tories. At that point the BXP vote collapses and they all come rushing back to vote Conservative. Meanwhile the Remain vote continues to split between Labour, Lib Dem and Green.

    Am expecting:

    1. Boris wins the Tory leadership contest.

    2. Boris makes a token attempt at renegotiation with the EU, which is promptly rejected.

    3. Boris declares intention to leave with no deal.

    4. Anti-no deal Parliament passes vote of no confidence.

    5. September General Election in which the Tories win a majority on a Brexit platform. Labour continues to deliver a confused message on Brexit.

    6. UK leaves with no deal in October.
     
  16. Sesc

    Sesc Slytherin at Heart Moderator

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    A possible outcome, yeah. The actual question is what is Step 7, though. "No deal" is not an end result, that's the beginning of something. Unless you literally want no deal whatsoever, ever, all this means is more negotiations along the same lines as before, just from a weaker position.

    Somehow, the future of all No-Dealers ends in October. It's as if their watches and calenders don't go further.

    Edit: Also, how about this. Britain's Top Pick for PM is a rapper from the Westcoast:

    [​IMG] Best PM 5-6 June 2019-01_small.png
     
  17. InfernoPlato

    InfernoPlato Squib

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    I would argue that Labour actually stand a better chance when it comes to a general election than many people give them credit. We saw this in 2015-17, where voters flocked to opposition parties including the Liberal Democrats. However, when it turned out that it looked like May was going to get a majority, they all flooded to back Labour (aided by their pie in the sky election manifesto promising the world).

    Under current opinion polls, any Conservative majority or any Brexit party lead in any seat will be met by Remain parties swallowing hard and electing to vote for Labour or the closest Remainer. A Labour MP is better than a Conservative MP, and a Conservative MP is better than a Brexit party MP.

    It's what happened with UKIP in 2015 in many of the seats (including Thanet South), and you can bet it'll happen on a much wider scale than many are predicting at the next general election if opinion polling stays as it is.
     
  18. Sesc

    Sesc Slytherin at Heart Moderator

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    Rory Stewart just put in a very decent bid to succeed May. Eloquent without notes, funny, sure on facts and issues, and styling himself as a "realist" (and mostly clearing that bar). Has my fictional vote. Compared to Corbyn it'd be a no-brainer. Shame he has no chance.

    Circular argument -- if the Conservatives were a party that could elect someone like him, they would have delivered Brexit months ago and wouldn't need a new leader.
     
  19. Nevermind

    Nevermind High Inquisitor

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    Last Week Tonight did a pretty funny bit on him on last Sunday’s show. I doubt it can still found on YouTube, though, given that all full-episode uploads tend to be gone within a couple of hours.
     
  20. Sesc

    Sesc Slytherin at Heart Moderator

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    First round of voting is underway. For some reason, and I'm sure I don't know why, I can't stop thinking about this quote.

     
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