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British EU Referendum Thread

Discussion in 'Politics' started by Taure, Oct 13, 2015.

  1. Solfege

    Solfege Headmaster DLP Supporter

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    Except it wouldn't put to rest, and Sesc is right. All the substantive issues of Brexit will continue to be wrung out over the decade. More critically, this isn't solely about the referendum at this point. This is a full-fledged state crisis, a fundamental inability to govern, and 'Brexiting' on a technicality won't make those hard issues go away.

    If voters think pitting themselves over the precipice will yield political relief, they are in for a rude surprise.
     
  2. Chengar Qordath

    Chengar Qordath The Final Pony ~ Prestige ~

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    Oh yes, I never said the folks pushing for hard Brexit were right in assuming it's the quick and easy solution. Just that it seems that way, and that appeals to a lot of people who are just fed up with the process.
     
  3. Agayek

    Agayek Totally Sirius DLP Supporter

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    I think I get what you're coming from now, and the answer is "kinda sorta but not really".

    The difference is mostly a matter of public perception, though there's certainly some elements of hard policy in it as well. The logic is essentially, "we can stay in the EU and spend the next 10 years hashing out this agreement, OR we can leave the EU now, take the Brexit downturn, and spend the next 10 years recovering and negotiating future agreements".

    The important distinction to be made here isn't really the end result of whatever the final agreement is, but how the government approaches making that agreement. Does the government simply sit there and wait for permission to step forward, or do they get on with it and get things done before sitting down to discuss the future? That's what's important for most Leave voters IMO, and the idea of Brexit going through, the UK officially leaving the EU and no longer sitting sending anyone to Brussels, and the government then negotiating something they can even sell as even vaguely positive would be all those voters need to be quite happy with it.
     
  4. Sesc

    Sesc Slytherin at Heart Moderator

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    Right. And that was my original point to Longsword -- it seems that way -- now -- but it won't after the fact, when the debates in Parliament and papers and public continue on just as before. Nothing is over, in no sense. People will be fed up then as much as now, or even more so, because their expectations are proven wrong. And that is, I think, Johnson's miscalculation.


    @Agayek: Your options aren't options, though. If a no deal exit happens, after it happens, the EU will wait. And the options for the UK will be: No deal, ever -- we agreed this was nonsense -- or they accept one of the versions of the WA, and then we can talk about future relations. "Get on", "get things done", that's what the government says all the time, but those phrases have no meaning. Get on with what? Get what done exactly? The first priority of a government after no deal Brexit is the same as the first priority before it: Negotiate Brexit. Nothing else will get done before this isn't settled.

    So I get the appearance of "having left the EU". But you would have left the EU in the same sense if you had agreed to the WA by now. Which leave voters (now) didn't want -- "no deal is better than a bad deal" -- except "no deal" doesn't exist, and we're back at square one.
     
  5. Darth_Revan

    Darth_Revan Secret Squirrel ~ Prestige ~ DLP Supporter

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    The hilarious part is that they think having a trade agreement with the US will be some sort of saving grace.

    Britain keeps wanting things, except when someone explains to them what it is they asked for, the REALLY don't want it.

    It would be like ordering escargot because you think it sounds cool, and then finding out you asked for snails. NO THANKS.
     
  6. Agayek

    Agayek Totally Sirius DLP Supporter

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    I mean, fair enough I guess. It's just that, from the folks I've talked to, there is actually a delineation in their minds between the WA and the-trade-agreement-suspiciously-like-the-WA-negotiated-after-officially-leaving-the-EU. This whole thing has been me trying to explain that people can and do, in fact, hold them as distinct entities.

    It wouldn't shock me that, if no-deal Brexit happens and a few months/years later the UK negotiates a trade deal that's the WA wearing grocho-marx glasses, these same people wouldn't be terribly happy with it, and I don't doubt a savvy populist could turn that into people raging about Brexit again. But as it stands right now, they're seen as separate things, at least by the folks I've talked to.

    Then again, this whole mess has been one long gong-show, so it wouldn't surprise me much at all to find out that none of that is actually true, in the end.
     
  7. Longsword

    Longsword Seventh Year

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    That is true because Cameron let the monster out without any plans.
    Wanting things without knowing them isn't peculiarly British but common to public sentiment throughout the world. New FTAs would not be subject to yes/no votes.
    Countries outside of mega trading blocs ( see Australia ) can work well with the US without getting their precious national healthcare systems privatised.
     
  8. Solfege

    Solfege Headmaster DLP Supporter

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    Saving grace, as though a trade pact signed with the US posthaste (won't happen) would launch the UK into a Singaporean trajectory. Regrettably, it will be quite some time before the UK works through the effects of Brexit proper. A decade, perhaps two. What's more: Singapore's prosperity was not some individualistic achievement of principled perspicacity and boldly sovereign planning (thou LKY's statesmanship is much to be admired); but with heavy partnership, and much in service to the interests, of the Japanese private sector in need of cheap manufacturing. China has exerted a similar influence amongst the commodity suppliers of the world (see Australia et al... amongst which the US, by rejecting SEA multilateralism, risks its own wane).

    Advantages of natural geography are manifest. Whereas the UK has rejected its proximate behemoth. The EU.

    If the UK's no longer the gateway to the EU, then what is it? The gateway to the renminbi? Brexit's already repudiated London capital.
     
    Last edited: Sep 10, 2019
  9. Longsword

    Longsword Seventh Year

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    I don't expect the UK to start experiencing rapid growth either, but over the long term do not expect the EU to outperform them.
    For Leavers that would be enough.
     
  10. Agayek

    Agayek Totally Sirius DLP Supporter

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    I'm not sure on that. It's far from impossible, don't get me wrong, but I feel like it's more a matter of when and how the European financial system finally collapses, how it holds up under the stress of Italy's looming default and the coming recession, more than Brexit itself.

    If EU banks handle it poorly, then I'd say the UK will come out "ahead" in terms of growth, but otherwise the UK would be struggling to keep parity, let alone pull ahead. And it's really hard to say how that will be handled, because the people directly involved in European banking are highly competent, but are in many ways hamstrung by the nature of the EU, and how well they'll be able to navigate the rough seas is largely down to how willing the EU is to start properly federalizing.

    My read is that the political appetite for it doesn't really exist, and a eurozone-driven crash is gonna eliminate whatever little there might be, but crises tend to produce unpredictable outcomes, so I'm far from confident in that.
     
  11. Darth_Revan

    Darth_Revan Secret Squirrel ~ Prestige ~ DLP Supporter

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  12. Longsword

    Longsword Seventh Year

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    Too bad he went along with the Iraq fiasco.
     
  13. Darth_Revan

    Darth_Revan Secret Squirrel ~ Prestige ~ DLP Supporter

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    Sure, but that doesn't change the fact that he's still the best leader the UK has had in 30 years.
     
  14. Taure

    Taure Magical Core Enthusiast ~ Prestige ~ DLP Supporter

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    Fundamentally, the popular drive behind Brexit is one of isolationism. Sure, there are some wealthy free trade obsessives who dream of a Singapore-like British Empire 2.0, but those types are a vocal minority, the upper class leaders of a working class revolution.

    The typical "Leave" voter doesn't care about free trade. To them, free trade means the decline of British manufacturing and the outsourcing of industrial jobs to developing nations. Free trade means the disappearance of meaningful work in favour of an increasingly dominant finance/professional services industry in the South-East subsidising everyone else on government welfare.

    A lot of Remain politicians don't seem to have grasped this point. Like Tony Blair in the video above, they talk about things like "Britain won't be able to negotiate good terms in trade negotiations with China/US/EU" or "Britain will lose influence on the world stage" etc. and Leavers think "GOOD". They don't want trade deals, they don't want Britain acting on the world stage. They're not interested in geopolitics; their focus is purely domestic.

    Strip Corbyn out of the equation and survey the population about his policies and they are largely very popular. Economically, the British people support a much more socialist stance. The thing which has been keeping the left out of power is not their policies but their values.

    If a socially conservative government offered the people isolationist socialism they would snap it up.
     
  15. Sesc

    Sesc Slytherin at Heart Moderator

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    A Scottish appeal court just came out with ruling prorogation unlawful. Brexit, the constitutional gift that keeps on giving.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politic...dges-rule-boris-johnsons-prorogation-unlawful


    Edit:
    Sounds like you need a national socialist party. Straightface.
     
  16. pbluekan

    pbluekan Headmaster DLP Supporter

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    The Struggle is real.
     
  17. Aekiel

    Aekiel Angle of Mispeling ~ Prestige ~ DLP Supporter

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    Purely personally, I'd be happy with a left wing Labour party in charge. I agree with a lot of Labour's policies, it's just that Corbyn's name has been forever tainted by his past associations, the antisemitism crisis within Labour and his frankly terrible performance on the national stage. If Labour had someone as charismatic as Tony Blair but with left wing policies in charge they'd be walking the next election.

    Right now the best we can hope for is a hung parliament where the remain alliance band together under a Labour government, achieve pretty much nothing domestically but allow for a 2nd referendum to take place, preferably a legally binding one this time so that we can settle the matter once and for all.

    I'm also fairly interested in seeing what happens to the Lib Dems in the near future. They've acquired quite a few defectors at this point and they weren't a large party to begin with. I wonder if they'll end up heading towards the centre-right to try and hoover up the moderate Tory voters who are put off by Johnson and co.
     
  18. Mordecai

    Mordecai Drunken Scotsman ~ Prestige ~ DLP Supporter

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    I'm hoping that the Lib Dems become the party of constitutional reform. Make that their major focus in coming years. It won't get them in government but neither will "we're the center party". But they could possibly parlay through bits of reform as and when the government of the day needs their support for something. And I think they'd get a small uplift in their seats by standing for something so concrete and obviously needed
     
  19. Taure

    Taure Magical Core Enthusiast ~ Prestige ~ DLP Supporter

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    A bit of light relief:

     
  20. World

    World Oberstgruppenführer Moderator DLP Supporter

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    Just something that caught my eye in a Boris Johnson interview:

    [​IMG]
     
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