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British EU Referendum Thread

Discussion in 'Politics' started by Taure, Oct 13, 2015.

  1. Sesc

    Sesc Slytherin at Heart Moderator

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    @Longsword: Fair enough.

    Regarding the last though, it gets him crowd points, but also doesn't get him anywhere on the substance. He's not going to leave on Halloween if he doesn't pass a deal in Parliament, even ignoring the law won't work if Parliament can react. He might not even be PM much longer, if Parliament can agree on someone else. So the alternative is to walk into the GE with literally nothing achieved and a broken promise on "do or die". The result of a GE was always likely to be another hung Parliament, but it only needs a small nudge and/or enough tactical voting on the Remain side, and the Tories won't keep the PM office.

    A pact with Farage might be the only option left, then, but that would be the final straw for everyone who isn't a die-hard Leaver.


    @Giovanni: Probably a measure of how far the goalposts have moved. I thought the points the government made were perfectly silly as well, but then to actually hear Lady Hale picking them up, going through all of them and saying nope, wrong, nonsense and nice try was surreal. I was watching in slight disbelief, yeah.
     
  2. Johnnyseattle

    Johnnyseattle Headmaster DLP Supporter

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    I had no idea Olenna Tyrell was inspired by a real person.
     
  3. Innomine

    Innomine Headmaster ~ Prestige ~ DLP Supporter

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    I’m curious, in your guys opinion, how far are we into uncharted territory here? It’s clear that the rules of the game have changed dramatically over the last 3 years. Things that are commonplace today would have been unthinkable before 2016.

    How far back in history do we have to go to find a situation similar to this one? What precedent did it set? How was it resolved?
     
  4. Aekiel

    Aekiel Angle of Mispeling ~ Prestige ~ DLP Supporter

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    The most recent example is probably the English Civil War and the Jacobite Rebellion after it. We haven't had a constitutional crisis this severe since we kicked the King out and invited a Dutch foreigner to take over the throne. The Jacobite Rebellion was an attempt to put James II & VII's son back on the throne, assisted by members of the Tory Party and after its defeat led to the best part of 100 years of political dominance by the Whig Party.

    EDIT: Not to say that's likely to happen again. I think we're a long way off actual violence in the streets yet.
     
  5. Sesc

    Sesc Slytherin at Heart Moderator

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    In the most narrow sense, today is unprecedented. But that is just another way of saying the law of the UK is now different than it was before -- the ruling means the (unwritten) constitution has been amended; the PM's power has been quite substantially curtailed. Which is also relevant for all Commonwealth nations, btw.

    In the larger scope of things of "when did something as dramatic as this happen before" I'm not enough of a legal historian. To find the PM's reaction (treating the Word of God as if that was just another opinion to disagree over, instead of a fact) and also his entire behaviour, I wouldn't be surprised if you'd have to go back to some time around the Civil War, though.

    Edit: Yeah, ninja'd.

    Also, just to be clear -- referencing the Civil War means that this, had it happened then, could likely have lead to violence. It's a good thing we don't live 400 years ago.
     
  6. Nazgus

    Nazgus Chief Warlock DLP Supporter DLP Gold Supporter

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    Question, how does this affect Commonwealth nations? Surely the UK court has no weight there?
     
  7. Sesc

    Sesc Slytherin at Heart Moderator

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    Not directly, no. But it's a landmark case -- and as they (Canada, for example) have similar structures and also do prorogation, it's an example that can be cited. Or, more likely, no one will now feel lucky enough to try in the first place.

    Edit: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opi...-delivers-a-game-changer-for-prime-ministers/

     
  8. DR

    DR Secret Squirrel ~ Prestige ~ DLP Supporter

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    We've been in 'Here Be Dragons' territory for a long, long time.
     
  9. Mordecai

    Mordecai Drunken Scotsman ~ Prestige ~ DLP Supporter

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    BoJo doing everything he can to get the Opposition angry enough at him to vote him out, so he gets the GE he wants. Honestly though, trying to claim the legacy of Jo Cox? Absolutely disgusting behaviour.
     
  10. Oment

    Oment The Betrayer

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    Yeah, he's not been all that concerned with being polite beyond the veneer that is House convention, even by the somewhat r/roastme-esque standards that are a fact of life in that chamber.
     
  11. Sesc

    Sesc Slytherin at Heart Moderator

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    He's still out of options. Something big will give, in the next two weeks.

    Also, Corbyn is now officially a third-rate PM. /cheap jokes
     
  12. Agayek

    Agayek Half-Blood Prince DLP Supporter

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    I am laughing my ass off that BoJo is still polling more than double Corbyn. It's just the most hysterical thing. You would think Labor would pull their head out of their ass and replace him with someone people actually like and sweep a majority almost immediately, but I guess that would be too easy.
     
  13. Longsword

    Longsword Groundskeeper

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    If Labour tried to do something of that sort the party cadre would be furious and the result would be disastrous.
    Not that they are going anywhere at the moment.
     
  14. Erotic Adventures of S

    Erotic Adventures of S Denarii Host

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    So, how is Corbyn on power? Who supports him?
     
  15. VanRopen

    VanRopen Order Member

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    That's precisely the problem - his party does support him, as far as I can tell. He's successfully fought off a couple coups thanks to that.

    But everyone else fucking hates him, and his supporters refuse to accept that.
     
  16. Taure

    Taure Magical Core Enthusiast ~ Prestige ~ DLP Supporter

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    Media today are gleefully reporting the dressing down Boris got in Parliament yesterday. As is the standard practice these days, reporting focuses heavily on the Twitterati, with prominent comments like:

    In short: a fat load of nothing. The media is reporting politicians' emotions and their discussions about making symbolic gestures. No action.

    There should be no glee in this, even for those opposed to Johnson. It's just another example of the politics of talking big while kicking meaningful action down the road.
     
  17. Longsword

    Longsword Groundskeeper

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    The opposition isn't really showing competence.

    LibDems won't do it ( without getting into the issue of rebel Tories ), but making a coalition with Corbyn as temporary PM could be a possibility.
    Get a VONC passed in the parliament, put Corbyn in as PM while making their support conditional on him getting an extension.
    Once the possibility of No Deal is removed, Corbyn can be forced to call an election or be threatened with removal of support.
     
  18. Sesc

    Sesc Slytherin at Heart Moderator

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    On substance except Brexit, Corbyn reflects where the party is very well. It's fairly radical (his supporters would say, the only real major left agenda in Europe, everyone else being neocons), only starting with nationalising utilities; it also includes forcing companies to hand over stakes to workers or, since this week, stripping assets of private schools. Which, incidentally, is why they all are keen to talk about just anything other than Brexit, going as far as to be unable to understand how people can be so obsessed with this side issue, when they have all those great shiny policies and ideas of what truly matters. This also somewhat explains the I dunno, do you?-stance on Brexit; it appears the really hardcore activists truly don't get that this should be the top priority for most people. (Similar reasonings exist for the antisemitism issue.)

    There's a funny irony in that radical Labour is radical everywhere except where the people actually are radical; they are the last compromisers on Brexit left in the world.

    Then again, as they would say, this is the liberal elitist view, the every day working man(TM), which they still are convinced will vote Labour, disagrees. I think it would be a serious strategic mistake to campaign on much else other than Brexit, but I guess we will see that soon enough. BXP/CON for (no-deal) Leave, Nationalists/LD for Remain, and Labour wants the Don't Know vote since they don't know either.


    Anyway, that as a background on why Corbyn is not going anywhere; influential parts of Labour like him and are genuinely convinced he can and will win an election. His positions are also the reason any Tory isn't going to be caught dead voting for him as a PM ... yet, at least. If Boris keeps this up, he might just cause hell to freeze over. It's one way out -- we are playing a bit of Sherlock Holmes here: "when you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth".


    Edit: Next level of getting relations to rock bottom: After not getting the conference recess, it appears Boris will be in Manchester, instead of at PMQs.
     
  19. Oment

    Oment The Betrayer

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    The simplest explanation likely is that there's been tallying and it's been counted that there wouldn't be enough votes to install Corbyn as a caretaker PM. At a best guess, this is due to the former Tories that are not of a mind to support Corbyn (who they did spend a significant amount of time opposing, and any majority must run through them), and at the same time, a belief in the chamber that Johnson will ultimately act as the Benn Act tells him to, because that is the law. (Which, of course, you'd expect a Prime Minister to do.)

    It's possible that there could be a deal made for anyone to be caretaker PM in the two weeks after any no confidence motion is passed, but that would be time not spent on Brexit in whatever form. This is probably a risk not worth taking in the minds of the members. And that they're not getting too much done at the moment is kind of irrelevant, because the human mind likely rationalises that away.
     
  20. Mordecai

    Mordecai Drunken Scotsman ~ Prestige ~ DLP Supporter

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    So the I is carrying a story that the Queen got advice on in what circumstances she could require the resignation of a Prime Minister. The story is being carried by a few other papers, but they all seem to be pointing to either the I or the same source the I used.

    My guess with this is that its a deliberate leak from either the Palace or the Cabinet Office (who will have been the ones providing the advice), as a shot across the bows for Johnson in case he is thinking of doubling down and refusing to follow laws passed by Parliament or judgements from the Supreme Court.
    --- Post automerged ---
    Sorry to double post, but just saw this piece of news. Its totally not a border check if it happens 10 miles from the border, right? I don't see this suggestion going down well, all it does is create a really thick, hard border.
     
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