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British EU Referendum Thread

Discussion in 'Politics' started by Taure, Oct 13, 2015.

  1. Xiph0

    Xiph0 Administrator Admin

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    That would've been equally true in 1968. It wasn't that they ever walked out of government or the establishment, Westminster had to dissolve them.
     
  2. Mordecai

    Mordecai Drunken Scotsman ~ Prestige ~ DLP Supporter

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    So in his court filings BoJo has promised to abide by the Benn-Letwin Act, and has also promised not to do a variety of things that would get around the purpose of the Act. And ever since that was made public Downing St proxies have been going on about how this doesn't mean we won't be leaving on October 31st, deal or no deal. This is such a shit show.

    Inner House is hearing next week about whether to Nob Off (which sounds like a rather sexual metaphor), and send the letter on behalf of the PM.
     
  3. Taure

    Taure Magical Core Enthusiast ~ Prestige ~ DLP Supporter

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    I assume Boris is counting on the EU rejecting the request.
     
  4. Taure

    Taure Magical Core Enthusiast ~ Prestige ~ DLP Supporter

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    So I can see the following news story is making the rounds:

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...e-fiscal-studies-growth-exports-a9146386.html

    If you look at Remain bastions such as r/ukpolitics and r/europe, you will find endless gleeful comments about how Remainers were right and Brexiteers must now feel very stupid.

    They don't seem to understand... this is not a good news story for Remain. The problem is that most people's lives have stayed pretty much the same over the last 3 years. If anything, people are doing better now than they were in 2016. Employment rates are higher than ever and wage growth is finally recovering from the financial crisis, increasing in real terms at 1.9%.

    So if people are feeling financially secure and are happy with their situation, and then you shove a news story in their face telling them that the official statistics say they are in fact poorer... the inevitable conclusion is not "Oops, silly me, I guess I am actually poorer than I thought". The conclusion is "These statistics are nonsense and do not reflect the actual financial situation of regular people."

    By gleefully waving this news story around and acting like it proves them right, Remainers just persuade even more people that economic statistics and predictions should be given little weight when making decisions such as whether to support Brexit.
     
  5. DR

    DR Secret Squirrel ~ Prestige ~ DLP Supporter

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    Obligatory point that "the UK" and "my pocketbook" are not the same thing, and that the study says "you could have been richer", not "you're poorer than you were in 2016."

    Perhaps people would be more receptive to the evidence put to them if it's explained properly.
     
  6. deyas

    deyas Seventh Year

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    ^Framed properly, and I doubt it sincerely. People hold their own experiences above all else, and explaining that they could have been marginally better off when they already feel comfortable isn't likely to sway much of anyone that doesn't already understand that Brexit is terrible.
     
  7. Sesc

    Sesc Slytherin at Heart Moderator

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    1) This works both ways. So if people feel poor, they're going to blame it on Brexit, regardless whether that is true or not.
    2) I don't think they will, however. And not because they feel comfortable -- there ought to be quite a few people being unhappy with their economic situation -- but because those issues have become decoupled.

    Look up the polls of "Would you vote for Brexit even if ..." again. A sizeable chunk have become zealots beyond any sort of reason, and that is why using reasonable arguments won't work. If Remainers still haven't grasped that, they have their own issues of reason to tackle. Basically, forget trying to convince or reason with anyone who would've voted for Farage (some 30%). They're gone.

    Edit:
    Relevant for possible elections: https://news.sky.com/story/pro-rema...an-70-seats-says-lib-dem-heidi-allen-11830762

    I.e., forget all seat forecasts.
     
  8. Taure

    Taure Magical Core Enthusiast ~ Prestige ~ DLP Supporter

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    The evidence is explained to them properly (in that the articles, once you go beyond the headlines, explain these things). Whether that is appreciated by people is another matter. But regardless, I think both points you make fall into the category of "technically correct, but doesn't really have an impact on people's views":

    1. While it's a trite fact that the UK as a whole is not the same thing as an individual, from the perspective of a (self-interested) individual, statistics about the UK as a whole only have value if they connect in some sense to the living conditions of that person. There is an increasing sense in the UK (and, I think, elsewhere) that GDP and similar statistics don't really tell you all that much at all about how good life is for the people.

    2. People generally aren't that interested in hypothetical money. What they care about is how much money they actually have, and they will feel good if that is more than they had before. To say they could have had even more under a different set of circumstances a) doesn't really hit home as it feels too distant and b) is easily attacked as little more than guess work with an intellectual gloss. With respect to the latter, people just point to all the hilariously wrong models and predictions made by serious economic institutions in the run up to the referendum.
     
  9. DR

    DR Secret Squirrel ~ Prestige ~ DLP Supporter

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    All stipulated, but it doesn't change the fact that the stated reaction is grossly misleading one.

    People were happy to vote on the £350m a week claim; they're capable of conceptualizing the problem. I also think that there's a fundamental difference between the sort of economic predictions of "do this and x will happen" as opposed to "we expected this much growth, and it didn't happen".

    /2cents
     
  10. Mordecai

    Mordecai Drunken Scotsman ~ Prestige ~ DLP Supporter

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    Labour positioning themselves as the people's vote party now that the Lib Dems have abandoned that position. Not sure if it's too little, too late. But if they can get the message consistent and simple, then it might break through

    And if No 10 could sort their messaging it'd be great. Yesterday they leaked that they'd campaign on a no deal brexit platform. Then BoJo promised a senior MP that wouldn't be the case. And today No 10 is saying the MP "overinterpreted" BoJo's reassurances and that no deal brexit is definitely going to be on the manifesto
     
  11. Agayek

    Agayek Half-Blood Prince DLP Supporter

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    Don't worry. In a week or two, Corbyn's going to open his mouth and insult everyone that isn't a fullblown Marxist.
     
  12. Mordecai

    Mordecai Drunken Scotsman ~ Prestige ~ DLP Supporter

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    What really gets me is that I quite like a lot of the policies Labour are pushing. Its just a few of the more extreme ones I think are daft.

    Reduce violent crime by significant investment in youth services? Brilliant. Significant investment in public transport infrastructure across the North of England? Fantastic. Replace Universal Credit with something fit for purpose and at least somewhat compassionate? Definitely. Create a cabinet level position focused on protecting and improving Employment Rights? Yes please. Green new deal? Absolutely.

    Shut down all private schools and confiscate their funds to distribute amongst the state school system? Bit far really. I can get on board with ending their charitable status. They aren't charities, they're businesses catering to the wealthy and should pay their fair share of tax. But I'm not a fan of the Government seizing the property of private businesses.

    Requiring all businesses with over 250 employees to give over part ownership to those employees? Again, not a fan of the state mandating the transfer of ownership of any sort of property that way. I could see my way to supporting a variant of this, something along the lines of providing tax incentives to businesses which create an appropriate degree of employee ownership. Or making it a requirement for extremely large, publicly traded companies. But I'm not keen on how far the current policy goes.

    If Labour could just reign themselves in slightly, they'd be so much more popular. The policies I mention above, if presented without the bias of a political party brand associated with them, would be massively popular across the breadth of the population. Instead they keep taking that extra step or two and giving their opponents all the ammunition they need.
     
  13. Longsword

    Longsword Groundskeeper

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    Hilarious when you remember that many of the advocates send their children to expensive private schools.
     
  14. Mordecai

    Mordecai Drunken Scotsman ~ Prestige ~ DLP Supporter

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    To be fair, thats not really the case with the rank and file Labour rank and file. And its them that pushed that motion through. It was announced by the Shadow Education Secretary. She was born on a council estate, to an illiterate mother, left school pregnant at 16 with no qualifications. Not exactly the private school type.
     
  15. Longsword

    Longsword Groundskeeper

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    I was thinking of the usual suspects : Thornberry, Chakrabarty et al.
    Just remembered that quip about how radical Labour members want to ban private schools immediately while moderates wish to wait until their children have passed.
     
    Last edited: Oct 11, 2019
  16. The Nii Knight

    The Nii Knight Squib

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  17. PomMan

    PomMan High Inquisitor

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    Umm... you have anything to support that? That sounds like a rather extreme position to take, and a quick google doesnt show me any corroborating results with such a claim. As someone who attended private school, I cant say I feel or felt like that was the design of them in the slightest.
     
  18. Solfege

    Solfege Headmaster DLP Supporter

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    You see what they've done to you? /s
     
  19. The Nii Knight

    The Nii Knight Squib

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    I was speaking specifically about British institutions such as Eton and the effects that it has had on generations of our ruling class, I can't speak as to the experience of (I assume) Australian establishments.

    This is probably too personal of a question, but do you recognise in yourself any commonalities in this list of symptoms?
    https://www.ibblaw.co.uk/insights/b...-symptoms-and-long-term-psychological-effects
     
  20. PomMan

    PomMan High Inquisitor

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    I live in Australia now, but I was raised in the UK and went to a private school there, although not a boarding school. My question for support is for your claim that they are designed to churn out sociopaths, not that I think they're all brilliant. Also, you weren't just talking about boarding schools, you were talking about private schools.

    Boarding Schools can result in poor mental health in later life vs Private Schools are designed to create sociopaths to serve the needs of the empire. There's a big difference in these two and if what you had claimed was the former, I wouldn't have questioned that at all.

    And no, I dont see many commonalities on there. Some sure, but completely unrelated to education based factors.
     
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