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Canadian Election 10/21/2019

Discussion in 'Politics' started by Arkhan, Sep 23, 2019.

  1. Arkhan

    Arkhan Squib

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    Hi all!

    Canada is in election since almost two weeks now. (Started Wednesday the 11th). So in 28 days we will vote. Poll are too close to call a clear winner right now, so it's really hard to predict the winner.

    Some general info about Canada.

    We use the same system as in UK. : first-past-the-post voting. We will vote for 338 deputies accros Canada. The leader of the party with the most deputies is named Prime Minister.

    Current Prime Minister is Justin Trudeau, son of past PM Pierre-Elliot Trudeau. He is the leader of the Liberal Party of Canada. The LPC was in power for 69 years during the past century, and it's often called the Natural Governing Party of Canada. The party espouses the principles of liberalism and generally sits at the centre to center-left of the Canadian political spectrum.

    The main opponent is the Conservative Party of Canada, who is somewhere between the right and the center-right. Andrew Sheer is the current leader. Sadly for M. Sheer even if M. Trudeau keep making mistakes (like the blackface picture), he doesn't have the charisma to take the place available it seems so far.

    For the first time we will have 6 leaders are the debates. The English one is the 7 of October and the French one the 10 of October.

    On top of Justin Trudeau and Andre Sheer here are the 4 others parties in the race:

    The New Democratic Party of Jagmeet Singh. The NPD is a left wing party, and M. Singh is the new leader. It will be his first election. Singh parents are from India and he is a Sikh. So far he seems to have trouble to gain popularity.

    The Green Party of Elizabeth May. May has been there since a long time, and the Green party is getting more popular, even if they remains far away from power.

    The Populist Party of Canada of Maxime Bernier. Bernier lost the leadership race of the Conservative party some years ago, and decided to found his own party sometime later. The PPC is trying to surf on the Trump wave with little success so far.

    The Bloc Quebecois of Yves-Francois Blanchet. Blanchet is the leader of the BQ since a year. The BQ is a party that present candidates only in the French province of Quebec. They are in favor of the independence of Quebec from Canada. Ideology wise they are close to the NPD a left wing party in general, but with some specific differences like with religion. Quebec prefer the secularism of France over the anglo-saxon multiculturalism.

    Here are the current average polls:

    LPC : 35%
    CPC : 35%
    NPD : 14%
    Green : 9%
    BQ : 4% (only in Québec, where they are around 20% of the province)
    PPC : 3%

    Looking forward to talk with you guys!
     
  2. Innomine

    Innomine Headmaster ~ Prestige ~ DLP Supporter

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    Have you guys ever had a national conversation about transitioning into MMP?
     
  3. Airilife

    Airilife Not Equal

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    As someone who has absolutely zero knowledge of Canadian politics I’m wondering if anyone from Canada can say how deeply this whole black/brown face scandal is likely to affect the election?
     
  4. Arkhan

    Arkhan Squib

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    Without doing a in deep analyse, the poll after the scandal showed a small decline of the vote of the PLC, but the sameoblem remains. Even if people don't like what Trudeau did, the leaders of the others parties all seems to be unable to capitalize on the mistakes he made.

    Some say, Trudeau was so popular than most others parties thought he will be in power for at least 8 years, so not a lot of popular candidates decided to try their luck to face him this year. Now that Trudeau is beatable, it seems the others parties all have leaders without a lot of charisma, so Trudeau is kind of winning by default, even if he make mistake like the black/brown sca
     
  5. Saez

    Saez High Inquisitor

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    General consensus (this is just from anecdotal evidence) is that while Trudeau messed up, most understand that he isn't actually a racist and at least he's apologised.
     
  6. Silens Cursor

    Silens Cursor The Silencer DLP Supporter

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    Okay, so this is one of my standbys given I live in this frustration of a country and have way too much in the way of time and connections in Canadian politics, let me rattle through my expectations for this upcoming election.

    Liberals: Jesus titty-fucking Christ, I don't even know where to start with these guys. Justin Trudeau may be in power and may project a veneer of competence and structure to the rest of the world, but between how thoroughly he can alienate a comprehending audience and the scandals he hasn't quite been able to shake, he certainly has dissuaded any audience from a impression of intelligence. Right now, the opposition is trying to frame the election as an indictment of Trudeau as a leader, which seems like a good strategy given how sloppily he's moved... but it's high risk, given that Trudeau has a solid-ish base and providing the Liberals are not totally embroiled in scandal, most Canadians tend to give the party a pass, especially in comparison to their peers.

    The two scandals that should be placed in context are SNC Lavalin and the blackface thing, the first (at its most straightforward) being a case where Trudeau tried to lean on his prosecutors to let charges slide a bit (to save jobs in Quebec, that bugbear of Canadian politics), where she then refused and found herself reassigned. That's boiling a lot of hearsay, finger-pointing, and messiness down to a pretty succinct descriptor, and yet it's not a scandal that's really grabbed the headlines because a.) it's been a drag-out brawl and has been too muddy to really stoke anger, b.) everyone knows in the back of their mind all of Trudeau's opposition would have done the same, and c.) it's not like any charges that SNC Lavalin faced would place any jobs in Quebec in serious danger, because what is serious corporate accountability? The blackface thing is dated and well-timed to hammer Trudeau for multiple cases of being caught in black and brownface, normally the sort of political blow that would cripple him, except a.) everyone seems to believe that his social justice slant is sincere, as was his apology, b.) those who don't believe that have just accepted Trudeau is kind of stupid and they aren't that surprised, c.) Canada is a little more racist than folks will let on so many people don't think it's that bad, and d.) if we're going to call Trudeau a racist, you better come correct. Which takes us to...

    Conservatives: the tyrannical reign of Stephen Harper is over and now we have a sentient blob of non-charisma known as Andrew Scheer, who somehow can't stop associating himself with racist dumbshits at the provincial level. He also has the voting record of a social conservative (including against abortion and gay marriage, which is more popular than it should be among a base but sure as shit doesn't work for the general public), and while he's trying a pivot to the middle... again, sentient blob of non-charisma. He also has untimely associations with far-right grifters like Ezra Levant, proto-fascists like Faith Goldy, and all-of-the-above shitgoblins like Doug Ford, the current premier of Ontario who is embroiled in so many scandals and has made enemies of the massive teachers' union bloc that he's kind of fucked... so much so that he was told to stay the fuck away from the federal Conservatives for fear of tainting the brand (too late).

    Here's the thing: the Conservatives have momentum here and providing they drive the asinine racist and anti-choice side of their party to the fringe, focus on sane financial policy and economic development (aka what Harper did throughout most of his leadership), they have solid inroads and a not-terrible platform, especially given that someone finally woke up in their policy department and realized classical conservatism can have environmental policy (how Nixonian of them). The problem is that they can't really drive the shitheads of their party away to really hammer Trudeau on his hypocrisy, because a.) that's how they've won chunks of the prairie provinces, with that base, and b.)...

    The Populist Party of Canada - a new party founded by Maxime Bernier, who is trying the whole right-wing proto-fascist thing on for size despite being routinely humiliated in Parliament for the past decade. It's very much him trying the Trump thing, but his base is limited, he's got more of those pesky associations you see with a fringe party, Canada is nowhere near as nationalist as the States is (again, we can (questionably) thank Quebec for that), and again, incompetence. The alarming (if unsurprising) thing is that he has a real base that I'd argue is not being taken as seriously as some would believe; the plus side to that is the very real possibility it'll split the right-wing vote, especially given that he has a spot on the debate stage and will win an audience (unfortunately, he has some charisma). He's considered dangerous because he's pushing to the mainstream the same extremist ideas that Trump did, though.

    Now you have to think that given Trudeau has alienated a significant chunk of his voting block - and I haven't even gotten to how he botched election reform and has had messy deals surrounding the pipelines out west - he could be in real trouble here from the left, but...

    The NDP - led by Jagmeet Singh, the NDP have struggled by the Liberals basically sliding into the center-left slot they had occupied under the leadership of Jack Layton, who unfortunately died and took much of the NDP's soul, ideas, and charisma with him. Singh is actually quite solid when it comes to policy positions, but he's proven a little hesitant to go properly left and has wound up being a lot less effective than you'd hope. Shame, because when the NDP has run well at the provincial level they've had lasting success, but an underweight federal brand hurts the party.

    The Green Party - they're here because Elizabeth May has had lasting charisma and the environment is relevant to any discussion in policy. Shame her policy expertise in other fields falls short of her uncanny ability to overreach in public statements, which means the Greens will pick up fringe votes but little else.

    This leaves us with...

    Bloc Quebecois - French-speaking separatists who have suffered entirely too many Ls since 2015 and really have no coherent platform. They'll get a few seats in Quebec and nowhere else, but given they tend to be right-leaning that could be bad news for the Conservatives.

    Predictions: the debates will be a shitshow, mostly because I'm expecting the dogpile on Trudeau, who despite being kind of a moron has the sort of charisma and political low cunning to get through them with some veneer of grace. The French one will be for a big advantage, especially as he knows he's got chunks of the Maritimes, Quebec, the half of BC that won't go to the NDP, and a LOT of pissed off Ontario voters who conflate the federal conservatives with their dipshits at the provincial level (which is likely a fair assessment). And yet given the presence of our brand of alt-right misinformation (hi, Canada/Ontario Strong, we all know where your black money is coming from and I look forward to Elections Canada prosecuting you!), I do expect this race to be down to the wire.

    Ergo, minority goverment, likely Liberal with NDP and Green backing because Conservatives and PPC split their vote. Conservatives will not get an outright majority, but I would put odds on a Conservative minority with PPC and Bloc backing, although any allegiance with separatists tends to taint a party (this happened to the Liberals about a decade ago when they allied with the Bloc and NDP to try and take down Harper - and failed miserably).

    So yeah, with Conservatives and Liberals in a dead heat, let the shitshow continue!
     
  7. Arkhan

    Arkhan Squib

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    @Silens Cursor Thanks for the summary. I agree with your description of the current situation.

    My only question would by why would you say the bloc quebecois is right-leaning : ''given they tend to be right-leaning that could be bad news for the Conservatives.''.

    I'm just really curious. Most of their economic environnemental and social policies are much closer to the NPD than to the conservative one. And they aren't really taking any Conservatives Seats.

    The people who vote for the Conservatives usually don't like the Bloc. If you look at the Conservatives deputies, they come in general from the region of Quebec City, and the Bloc is not even close to winning those districts. The region of Quebec City is well know to be more right-leaning than the rest of the province and in general they don't like the PQ either (the Parti québécois is the provincial separatist party).

    All the gain the Bloc is currently making come from the suburban of Montreal and they are taking Liberal seats when they do.

    The only thing that might label them as right-leaning are their nationalist view on immigration, language or religion, but if you look at the separatist history of Quebec, like the FLQ ( Front de libération du Québec), they were much closer to the communist ideal, like Cuba. I'm not an expert but those days it seems that if you hold any nationalist views, you are not associated with the right.

    Thanks for your time, it's cool to discuss politic with a fellow Canadian.
    --- Post automerged ---
    To answer your question, yes we dit multiple time, but for various reason it never been done. Justin Trudeau promised that change 4 years ago, but abandoned the idea once in power. Same as happen multiple time in the past. Usually, the party in power doesn't like to change the system that made them win.

    But truth to be told, I'm not even sure people really want it. We will have in Quebec in 2022 a referendum on that question and if people vote yes, 2022 will be the last election using the current system for the province. The government of Quebec is proposing an transition to MMP but it's not sure if the population will say yes. Still plenty of time so we will see.
     
  8. Silens Cursor

    Silens Cursor The Silencer DLP Supporter

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    As someone in Quebec, you probably have more eyes on the ground on this one, so I will defer, but from what I remember on the federal level when the Conservatives had a minority and were pushing economic policy they tended to rely on the Bloc for stable votes (part of that dictated by Duceppe and the control he had over the federal party). The party may have restructured after the massive defeats it suffered in the next few elections, but also let's not get this twisted: even if the FLQ at its time was broadly more left-wing, the parties at both the provincial and federal level did have that right-leaning slant because they knew they had to cater to the rural population, and for a long time had connections to the Catholic dioceses. With Conservatives trying to usurp that control and the more secular generational shift in Quebec, the Bloc and PQ have had to evolve to match (which is why they aren't socially conservative), but nationalism and capitalist economic policy tend to place them right-leaning AND I'd argue that their environmental policy isn't that far removed from classical conservatism (protect the environment... until it really gets in the way of economic growth).
     
  9. franb117

    franb117 Squib

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    When it comes to the Bloc you have varying ideologies depending on the leader (like most parties). However, considering that one of their old leaders, Michel Gauthier, is now campaigning for Scheer you can see some similarities between both parties. Most of all outside of the Québec and Montreal areas going further north towards Saguenay.

    I do believe the debates will be when most people make up their minds (unsurprisingly). But, if it comes down once again to Cons vs Liberals (likely) and Trudeau hasn't shot himself in the foot (...eh, to be seen) then I think it'll be a question of which one you hate least argument and on that point I feel Trudeau still has higher odds.
     
  10. Arkhan

    Arkhan Squib

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    @Silens Cursor you made all good valid points. I guess it's all depend on which point analyse the situation.

    Stephen Harper here was never that popular for various reasons, but how he was handling the economy wasn't part of it. The economic situation when he left was good.

    It's on the social questions that his positions or the perceptions of the Conservative positions that he wasreally unpopular. Gay marriage, abortion, gun laws, etc are all subjects were the Bloc had a different position.

    As for environnement, I guess it's all related to the oil coming from Alberta. As the current PM said, their is no social acceptability here for that, and Sheer being in favor of a pipeline is not something widely accepted here. The pipeline is associated with pollution and the acquisition of Trans Mountain by Trudeau wasn't popular at all.

    Also I'm curious how you see the parties in Quebec. Because the Bloc was usually associated with the PQ and the PQ among the main parties is considered to be center left here. The Liberal Parti of Quebec would be center right, the CAQ (Coalition avenir Quebec, currently in power) is right-leaning and QS (Quebec Solidaire) is left.

    So for me I always associated the Bloc being left-leaning since is where the PQ is generally put.

    thanks :)
     
  11. Microwave

    Microwave Groundskeeper

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    bloc québécois en sueur
    emote.png
     
  12. tywyll fiach

    tywyll fiach First Year

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    Hey guys,
    You remember that big news about a bunch of NDP members crossing to the Green party in NB?

    I have juicy gossip for ya!
    The lady who led these shenanigans, a Joyce Richardson, was a three time loser to the provincial NDP party leadership.
    Her third loss?
    Welp, that was her own just desserts after organising a coup to have a vote of lost confidence in the recent leader after the 2018 election here.

    Now this wouldn't be much out of the norm after such a disastrous showing in the recent provincial election. There are, however, some pretty harsh issues facing the party prior to the election. The leader had only been in place for a year, previous leader crossed the floor and joined conservatives roughly two years earlier.

    In any case, she had the meeting stacked with her people, and on a day that a fair number of other members were unable to attend.
     
  13. Arkhan

    Arkhan Squib

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    I'm not sure I get the bloc quebecois en sueur lol
     
  14. Microwave

    Microwave Groundskeeper

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    you called yourself canadian
     
  15. Arkhan

    Arkhan Squib

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    I am, until my fellow Quebecers find theirs balls.
     
  16. Saez

    Saez High Inquisitor

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    https://election.ctvnews.ca/scheer-...ship-i-ve-never-been-asked-about-it-1.4623024

    I just don't understand why he'd say this knowing he's the one with US citizenship. How did he think it would never backfire?
     
  17. Silens Cursor

    Silens Cursor The Silencer DLP Supporter

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    Because the sentient blob of non-charisma also happens to be a fucking moron. The #ScheerHypocrisy tag that tends to flare up whenever he hits this nonsense is a good indicator of however the Liberals step in it, Scheer seems to follow right on cue.
     
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