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December 31st 2019

Discussion in 'Politics' started by Erotic Adventures of S, Dec 30, 2018.

  1. Erotic Adventures of S

    Erotic Adventures of S Denarii Host

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    Considering how batshit crazy the world seems to have been the last few years I thought we could have a bit of crystal ball gazing and try to make predictions about what things may or may not have happened by December 31st 2019.

    Then we can bump this thread in a year and see who DLPs Nostradamus is.

    My Predictions:

    * The Shut down will last until late March if not longer. The Dems wont budge on Wall funding, Trump can't be seen to loose. Not sure what will finally resolve it, maybe the gradual collapse of a functioning government will encourage the parties to actually work together.

    * The date for Brexit comes with no resolution at all. The solution is to carry on as if nothing happened. Essentially Brexit is canceled with out being canceled but the UK has a stone tied to it due its quasi state of leave/stay

    * Trump will want to declare war somewhere, he would like the idea of being a wartime leader. And he may want to go in the shoes of Bush II and see his only chance of reelection being a successful (at the time) war. Where is a hell of a lot harder, I'll go with... Venezuela. Oil money, their aggression towards their neighbors, and he could even spin it as helping the migrant waves (BS). I put this towards the end of 2019.

    * Muller, no fucking idea here. I don't think they'll go after Trump, maybe his kids?

    * While the world is distracted by that shit, Russia will do some new crap in Europe, a coup or lowkey invasion of another former USSR state.

    * I think we are in for another smaller recession this year, again I think towards the end of the year for it to properly build up. Not as bad as 2008 but not fun for anyone.

    * When the above hits I think Europe is in for another round of collapsing members states Economies and the other members being much less willing to help, leading to possibly another exit/expulsion. Although with Brexit this seems less likely.
     
  2. Taure

    Taure Magical Core Enthusiast Prestige DLP Supporter

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    Brexit prediction:

    - May's deal fails to pass the House of Commons.

    - Labour calls for a vote of no confidence in the government. The motion fails.

    - The UK is stuck in governmental paralysis: neither Parliament nor the Tory party can remove May from power, but May is unable to pass any Brexit legislation.

    - The UK asks the EU for an extension. The EU says no, unless it's to have another referendum.

    - Parliament votes on whether to have another referendum. The motion fails.

    - The UK hurtles towards a no-deal exit.

    - With both a second referendum and a general election ruled out, May convinces Remainers that the only real choice now is between her deal or no deal.

    - May's deal returns to Parliament for a second vote. This time it passes.

    - The UK exits the EU on the terms of May's deal. Theresa May resigns in celebration.
     
  3. Perspicacity

    Perspicacity High Score: 3,994 Prestige DLP Supporter DLP Gold Supporter

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    The Mueller (or his replacement) investigation proceeds. Democrats subpoena and release Trump's tax forms. It becomes obvious to the masses that Trump has been compromised by Moscow all this time and that his entire business empire exists at the pleasure of Russian and Saudi benefactors. It doesn't matter to the 40% of Americans (his base) who secretly wish they were Russians instead, but the rest start clamoring for a (justified) impeachment and removal.

    Trump magnanimously resigns. "I've done more in two years than any other president has in eight. America is great again and I need to go back to my business empire." He pardons his family and receives one from Pence. Nobody is happy at this turn of events but nobody can do anything about it.

    Hard Brexit happens and contributes to the concomitant worldwide recession.

    The Dem House passes several symbolic bills but doesn't manage to get anything through the Senate and WH. Voters, disappointed, stop caring and look (by the end 2019) to be out of the 2018 gas and may well be handing the House back to the GOP.

    A Roe v. Wade challenge makes it to the SCOTUS. Abortion is left up to the states. Abortion becomes a felony, albeit an unprosecuted one, much like tax fraud in the U.S.

    A challenge to Baker v. Carr happens and gerrymandering becomes baked into the American system. The GOP breathes a sigh of relief, knowing that they no longer have to muster a majority to govern. McConnell sends a gift basket to Kavanaugh.

    It becomes increasingly obvious that the U.S. census has devolved into a partisan shitshow. This contributes to the prior point. If you live in a city or populous (non-GOP) state, your vote is worth 0.1% that of a Wyoming gun-toting shithead. Portents appear that the next eleven years will be a partisan disaster.

    Elizabeth Warren decides that she hasn't a real shot in 2020 and backs Booker or Harris.

    Anthropogenic climate change becomes acknowledged reality. There is no real debate anymore, even in the U.S., that it's happening. The question becomes: how can I profit from it? Fly-by-night climate-change trusts start advertising on Fox. None of the viewership notice the pivot.

    Jesus wept.
     
  4. Nevermind

    Nevermind Groundskeeper

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    For flavour and variety, here are some rather specific sporting predictions, with selection based purely on the things I care for. It is a non-serious piece, though I do believe that there‘s at least a decent chance for each of the actual outcomes to occur.

    The list includes darts, snooker, NFL, baseball, various football championships, and various motorsport championships. Feel free to skip if you want to.


    Here we go:


    Let’s start this list off with a bang. Michael Smith manages an upset and defeats Michael van Gerwen to win his maiden World Darts Championship.

    Super Bowl LIII goes to LA, one way or another.

    Ronnie O‘Sullivan wins a sixth snooker World Championship and announces his retirement on Twitter later that night because every other player is a numpty.

    Fernando Alonso wins the Indy 500 thanks to a late caution caused by a Honda engine failure, which counts as ample compensation for three years of utter misery (not counting 2018) and the infamous 2017 Indy 500. Alonso celebrates with 2% milk. zakbrown.exe breaks and just says the word "champion" on loop for the following week. (That was a joke for F1 fans.)

    The Formula E title goes to Jean-Eric Vergne (again). Red Bull motorsport consultant Dr Marko, who booted Vergne from RB’s F1 roster at the end of 2014, tells Daniil Kvyat to grow a beard and learn French, because there‘s just not much else he could still do to the poor man that would surprise anyone. (Another joke for F1 fans. I also don‘t particularly like Dr Marko and what he does to/with his drivers in the name of short-term gains.)

    Liverpool actually manage to not bottle it and win their first Premier League title. Manchester United continue their recent run of form, make a late lunge and finish 4th as "best of the rest."

    The Champions League, on the other hand, goes to ManCity, which is somehow more palatable to me than PSG or Liverpool thanks to some residual affection for Pep from his time in Munich.

    Speaking of, Bayern narrowly wins the Bundesliga title, but it’s more of a 2001 style campaign than a 2013-18 one, characterised by a general lack of truly convicing wins and a lot of luck. Let‘s not talk about the CL matchup against Liverpool, alright?

    No. One. Cares. About. The. Nations. League.

    Also, I no longer particularly care about the NBA, as I have preferred the European variant for some time now. So no prediction here, aside from the safe one that when Dirk is out, so am I.

    The Yankees finally end their #ChaseFor28. Bonus points for a decisive walk-off HR from Judge, Stanton or Sanchez.

    Honda stablemates Marc Marquez and Jorge Lorenzo frequently get into each other‘s way in MotoGP, which leads to internal friction and, eventually, the loss of another riders‘ title for Marquez. A resurgent Valentino Rossi atop an equally resurgent Yamaha swoops in and, with an eye to the future, immediately rides off into he cloudy Valencia sunset while on top, as his VR46 protege Morbidelli takes his place.

    (For the first part of the above prediction, if Lorenzo manages to be competitive, I absolutely believe this will happen. If anything, the lingering putrid aftertaste of the 2015 title decision will make Marquez even less inclined to back down in any way to Lorenzo. For the second part, I think Dovi is more likely to play spoilsport, but I can see Rossi retiring if he either wins another title or the Yamaha is once again hopelessly uncompetitive. So I went with the more romantic option.)

    And to close out the year, Lewis Hamilton eclipses Fangio and edges closer to Schumacher with a sixth F1 title as Mercedes once again manages to turn an initially tricky car into the class of the field. However, a new challenger emerges in Young Charles "It is I" Leclerc.
     
  5. ScottPress

    ScottPress The Horny Sovereign Prestige

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    Do you guys not have any fun predictions, about things you actually care about and enjoy?

    Anthem will flop like a depressed fish. Marketing for Dragon Age 4 will ramp up coming up on E3. BioWare will hemorrhage staff. All available resources will be dedicated to DA4, rumors will fly about DA4 being BW's last chance, but EA is resigned to shutting down the studio in the next 2-3 years.

    Netflix's The Witcher will be highly rated by Vox/Salon/Buzzfeed circles, but viewership will be low for Netflix's expectations.

    Avengers: Endgame total box office will surpass 2,3 bln dollars. Cap dies, Iron Man survives but is traumatized and retires. Possibility of cameos in future films, but officially out of the MCU after Phase 3.

    Episode IX doesn't crack a billion at the box office. Kathleen Kennedy "retires" while one of her disciples takes over at Lucasfilm with little to do because SW movie production will scale back even further after Ep IX underperforms.

    Disney+ breaks all records previously held by other streaming services (sub count growth rate, content). Netflix borrows more money, goes into more debt and tries to keep up with Disney at all cost by putting out dozens more shitty originals.

    Daenerys will die in Season 8. Jon Snow will survive, but it'll be a bittersweet ending.

    Jordan Peterson's Patreon alternative launches in a half-done state and enjoys a burst of traffic initially, but regrettably, gets put on indefinite hold because payment processors will refuse to partner with it. Jordan Peterson gets banned on YT, Twitter, Facebook.

    Pewds beats T-series to 80 million. After it happens, Vox/Buzzfeed/HuffPo/possibly WSJ all put out hitpieces lamenting that a Nazi is winning the meme war against the poor corporation. In response to this, Pewds' sub count surges again. Pewdiepie ends the year as the first channel to hit 100 million subscribers.

    Current govt in Poland will (unfortunately) win reelection, but with a much lower margin. No more majority. Volume of their shitty policies is reduced, but trends from the last 3 years will continue.

    Mueller concludes that Trump colluded as far lucrative business deals/private wealth, but too dumb to collude on election-stealing, or whatever they're calling it these days.

    No deal Brexit.

    Trump builds a bit of fence and proclaims that he has built the Wall. The Trump crowd gobbles it up. Trump announces loud and proud that he will run for reelection.
     
    Last edited: Dec 30, 2018
  6. Perspicacity

    Perspicacity High Score: 3,994 Prestige DLP Supporter DLP Gold Supporter

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    The Captain Marvel movie is probably going to rate poorly on RotTom, but will be a good repeat time-killer on cross-country flights.
     
  7. Arthellion

    Arthellion Supreme Mugwump

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    Menace will start a fanfic and not finish it.
     
  8. Oment

    Oment The Betrayer

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    Brexit happens on May's deal, similar to how Taure spelled it out. The UK still ends up in a shitshow as the last minute deal doesn't stop all kinds of issues from popping up, drastically affecting public life. Tolerance of proper queueing falls precipitously.

    On the back of Brexit and corrections, economies in the West start to slow down, though a recession is unlikely to appear just yet, if only due to definitions. Even so, it won't be anywhere near '08 levels and should probably be over after Q3 2020. The weaker European countries weather this surprisingly well.

    Trump hangs on as Mueller finds plenty of rope, but not enough to tie the knot in this year. Trump's children are assiduously avoided by the investigation as far as the public can see. However, other associates of Trump's fall like flies come summer. Rudy twitters himself to a full-on meltdown that makes Trump's Tweetstorms look pedestrian.

    Gridlock in Washington DC. This first shutdown is resolved relatively quickly through ye olde kicking the can down the road, but a full-on shutdown - and not the one that is present now - ends up happening, with no end in sight by this time next year. Blame is apportioned on partisan lines, with the few true independents remaining slightly preferring to blame Trump, but mostly they engage in 'muh both sides'.

    A handful of Representatives and one Senator resign on the back of misconduct allegations. Most of them sexual, but a few for misuse of power-style things. One Senator also dies in office. Possibly literally.

    Many, many thoughts and prayers after two bloody school shootings that rival Sandy Hook for death toll. Nothing more.

    Anthropogenic climate change continues to be denied louder and louder. 2019, through quirks of nature, is a good deal colder than 2018 was worldwide, which is seen as proof positive of ACC being fake.

    The EPP barely holds on to their plurality in the European Parliament, leading to Manfred Weber as Juncker's successor. The ENF group (the nationalists) surges and doubles their current amount of seats, even after the small decrease in parliament size.

    Russia continues with what it's doing now, but not a whole lot more up front.

    Will Smith nearly manages to carry the Aladdin remake on his Genie back, but it ultimately flops, just as all the other live action Disney remakes. Toy Story 4 sure as hell doesn't though, nor does, surprisingly, Detective Pikachu.

    Twitter finally introduces an edit button for tweets for the first 120 seconds after you send one. The feature is buggy as all hell and ends up being pulled after two weeks.

    Elon Musk pulls a Martin Shkreli and pivots to being the Trump of businessmen - some people defend him to the death, while others think he's the worst thing ever.
     
  9. Oz

    Oz For Zombie. Moderator DLP Supporter

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  10. Xiph0

    Xiph0 Administrator Admin

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    Comfortably predicting I will adopt even more old man habits than I already did this year while scarcely noticing.
     
  11. Perspicacity

    Perspicacity High Score: 3,994 Prestige DLP Supporter DLP Gold Supporter

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    Shaving your ears and trimming your eyebrows?
     
  12. vlad

    vlad Auror Prestige

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    Last poster of 2018 is 'it'.
     
  13. Xiph0

    Xiph0 Administrator Admin

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    I went out drinking last night at 6 PM and I was in bed by 11. I used to stay up for a few days in a row.
     
  14. Silirt

    Silirt Professor DLP Supporter

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    I prefer to call old man habits 'wisdom'.
    In the spirit of the thread, I predict that the simultaneous new years resolution thread will be one to watch. Good luck, all.
     
  15. Zerg_Lurker

    Zerg_Lurker Order Member DLP Supporter

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    Arthellion gets banned. Both sides are to blame.

    North Korea builds more missiles, fires them into the Pacific. Japan's birthrate declines further. Xi Jin Ping, Mohammed bin Salman and Vladimir Putin meet for drinks using Donnie T. as a toilet. Russiaball gets more clay. More Syrians die.

    3 more states increase the minimum wage to 15, and 5 more legalize recreational marijuana.

    The Notorious RBG encounters more health problems but stays on the bench despite them. Clarence Thomas asks another question.

    Kanye Wests puts a pair of shutter shades on the border to symbolize the wall that he'll build to surpass Trump's.

    The Mueller hands out indictments like candy and sees more convictions/plea bargains from the campaign team. Impeachment proceedings fail to gain traction. Both sides are to blame.
     
  16. Oment

    Oment The Betrayer

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    Which timezone?
     
  17. ScottPress

    ScottPress The Horny Sovereign Prestige

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    The last one would be my guess. People in Asia could wake at their dawn and post when the West Coast is counting down to midnight.
     
  18. Silirt

    Silirt Professor DLP Supporter

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    [​IMG]
    >the last one


    I think it would be better to just pick one. Everyone can google 'what time is it in Djibouti, Djibouti' or something of that nature.
     
  19. BTT

    BTT Headmaster

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    [​IMG]
    There. Now this question has ben solved forever.
     
  20. Oment

    Oment The Betrayer

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    If we're going by the last post made at a time when a majority of people lived in 2018 (ergo: the last post before 6:30pm UTC, as per the xkcd above), then the winner is...

    With an honourable mention to the number two by three minutes:

    I might have made mistakes in the judging, so if anyone is able to give me more conclusive evidence either way, appreciated. Would also like to mention that, for a fairly long time in my checking, @Aekiel 's post in WTF images was in the lead, which is equal measures disturbing and appropriate.
     
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