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European Elections 2019

Discussion in 'Politics' started by Sesc, May 26, 2019.

  1. Sesc

    Sesc Slytherin at Heart Moderator

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  2. Nevermind

    Nevermind Auror

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    My first reaction: Nahles (leader of the German social democrats) needs to go, 15.5% is unacceptable, genuinely terrible. Everything she touched as party leader has failed miserably.

    I’m quite amused by the continued success of the German Greens, though. 20.5% is pretty decent and their best ever result in a country-wide election.
     
  3. Sesc

    Sesc Slytherin at Heart Moderator

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    Much more amusing are the up to three seats for a satirical party called Party. I dunno if they even have that many candidates. And fuck me I'm paying their salary.

    Then again, much better to invest in nonsense than in parties that don't even care for the parliament as an institution.
     
  4. Nevermind

    Nevermind Auror

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    Oh yes, they only had Martin Sonneborn until now, right?

    They had an incredible presence in Freiburg, with lots of posters.

    And they do, actually. The first two at least are “serious” candidates (both Sonneborn and Semsrott are or were part of the heute-Show, the German version of the Daily Show). I don’t know about the rest, but I suspect they were just looking for people with thematically appropriate/funny/shocking names.

    AB01E195-D332-48C0-87DC-4B6EBB2AA772.jpeg
     
  5. Sesc

    Sesc Slytherin at Heart Moderator

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  6. Celestin

    Celestin The Cursed Child

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    The only good thing about a current political situation in Poland is a general mobilization of everyone even in less important, at least for many people, elections. In 2014 we had ~24% turnout and this year it's going to be ~40%, maybe even ~45%.
     
  7. Peteks

    Peteks Order Member

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    On the other hand, it is beyond sad that 40-45% turnout for an election is considered a major improvement :(
     
  8. Celestin

    Celestin The Cursed Child

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    Final number is about 43%. I consider it a big win and an unexpected one too.

    The main opposition coalition lost, but their 39,1% against 42,4% of the ruling party is not bad at all. As long as they actually don't break apart, always a possibility with 5 different parties involved, and figure out how to mobilize their electorate more, a turnout is much better in pro-PiS regions, they have a good chance of winning, if barely, the parliamentary election in November.
     
  9. Peteks

    Peteks Order Member

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    Yeah, considering the previous number that is a huge win, and better than the overall EU average. In Finland we also only got 42,7%. I'm more commenting on how sad it is that not even half of the population care about voting, even though the election has big ramifications on EU policy.
     
  10. Oment

    Oment The Betrayer

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    So far, it doesn't look like the amazing night for the various eurosceptic parties that it was expected to be. Granted, most of it is exit polling, but from what I've gathered here and there...

    AfD hits 10-12 % or so. Respectable, sure, but they've polled higher fairly recently.
    Le Pen beats Macron, but loses voter share in the process.
    Vox (Spain) underperforms compared to last month's national elections.
    Baudet (NL) and Wilders combined don't increase on Wilders's result from 2014. (Polling had suggested Baudet might top. Also, current results/projections actually suggest a reduction of combined seats, kicking Wilders's PVV out of the EP. Good riddance.)

    Of course, Italy and the UK do score high, but the BritainElects prediction suggests that Farage and company don't gather more seats than UKIP did in 2014.
     
  11. Sesc

    Sesc Slytherin at Heart Moderator

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    Rather, yes. Even Salvini comes up a bit short, apparently. I wish it was taken as a lucky break and some of the underlying issues would be addressed ... we'll see, I guess.

    Also:
    https://www.reuters.com/article/eu-...-win-eu-election-bbc-projection-idUSL9N21K00S

    Looking good so far. Even the Greens are beating Labourin places. And the Tories are so bad they're better in Scotland than in England. Just a complete collapse everywhere. Also, ChangeUK might be finished before it ever started, doesn't look like they will be important anywhere.
     
  12. Oment

    Oment The Betrayer

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    LibDems pipped over Labour in Islington and the Tories in (Windsor and) Maidenhead. (As did Brexit in the latter.)

    Why's this relevant, you ask? Well... Guess where Corbyn and May's constituencies are.

    Spain's ruling party is the big winner there. Vox ended on 3 seats (6 % of the vote), which is a lot less than what they had only a month ago. Also interesting: two of the people elected are in hot water with the law due to the Catalan referendum. (One's being held in Madrid, the other's in exile in Belgium.)

    Oh, and Tsipras (Greece) has announced new national elections after ND won there.
     
  13. Darth_Revan

    Darth_Revan Secret Squirrel ~ Prestige ~ DLP Supporter

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    Full results may be found here.
     
  14. Nevermind

    Nevermind Auror

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    Change UK already talking up the idea of a merger with the LibDems is… interesting, to say the least, considering where its leading figures come from. Might be one of the more interesting ways to tide us over from the Tory party conference until Doomsday Brexit Day.
     
  15. Sesc

    Sesc Slytherin at Heart Moderator

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    Pretty ... tepid. Nothing at all on Labour's shit performance. On the other hand, short of saying I dun goofed (and who could ever see him doing that?), it's not as if anything he could say would be relevant, so eh.
     
  16. Ankan

    Ankan Groundskeeper

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    Swedish voter turnout went from 51% to 53,3%.

    Our feminist party is now out and our Liberal party just managed to hang on with 0,1% from the cut off. Our Green party also went down to 11,4%.

    Big wins for our other right-wing parties, especially the more conservative ones.
     
    Last edited: May 27, 2019
  17. Darth_Revan

    Darth_Revan Secret Squirrel ~ Prestige ~ DLP Supporter

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    If you take the statement on its face, then the pro-Brexit parties got c. 44%, and the pro-Remain ones got c. 56%. Assuming you count Labour on the Remain side, which is admittedly questionable, but I think the pro-Brexit faction of Labour probably split off to the Brexit Party.
     
  18. omnipotentatus

    omnipotentatus First Year

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    Well in Denmark this election has been interesting, DF, our big anti-immigrant and euroskeptical party (also the party of Morten Messerschmidt who committed fraud with his MELD organisation while in the European Parliament this last term), got battered. At the last European election they got 4 out of in total 13 seats in the European Parliament, meaning they were the biggest party at that election. This time around they won only a single seat, combine that with the fact that the People's movement against the EU (a far left anti-eu party that only participates in European elections) lost their seat in the European Parliament, and well, so far it looks like the anti-EU and euroskeptical parties had a pretty terrible election overall. I just hope that trend continues in the national elections a little over a week from now.
    My guess is that people see how big of a clusterfuck brexit is, and decide that they prefer the status quo even if they don't like the EU.
     
  19. Oment

    Oment The Betrayer

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    I'm not overly sure I agree. If you take this map, and the map of five years ago, sure, there's an undeniable extra couple of votes for the hard Brexit parties (UKIP/Brexit) to the tune of 7-8 % extra. However, we also see significant movement towards the LibDems and Greens; the Tories got mutilated, and though there is some undeniable movement here and there... General movement towards the hard right comes from that side of the spectrum, not the 'left working class'. Here's the German 2019 data (est.) compared to 2017's national elections. If you click on the AfD on the right, you see that the movement mostly comes from the right side of the spectrum, excluding non-voters. I'd expect the Brexit+UKIP share to be similar - you have the UKIP vote from 2014, and of the remaining number, probably the plurality was Tory or non-voter.

    Of course, we need microlevel data to at least make more than half-educated guesses, but I'm not expecting that any time soon.
     
    Last edited: May 27, 2019
  20. Sesc

    Sesc Slytherin at Heart Moderator

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    So ... you'll recall, of course, the "huge" protests against "upload filters". Well. I voted for the Pirate Party (core competence: free internet, running on this explicit platform). Aside from myself, there were enough people to help them to ... 0.7% of the vote, and a single seat.

    Congrats, millenials. You figured out how to be relevant.

    Now, to be fair -- there was a sexual abuse scandal, which is why it's actually a good thing the second-placed candidate on the list didn't make it, and if you look at the numbers for the Greens, they gobbled up the youth vote (33% under thirty, the highest share), but then again, that was my point: there are protests and polls showing x-majority % don't like a certain law, and when given the choice to hand over the vote to someone who has been active working on that very issue (in parliament, their previous MEP Julia Reda was the face of the protests), other topics suddenly are more relevant.

    I mean, not that I disagree -- climate change > a random law about the internet that may not actually create "upload filters" in the first place (my vote was for the PP candidate, I knew him) -- but /facepalm at complaining that stuff isn't happening when you don't make it happen.


    As an aside, the Pirate Party picked up three additional seats in the Czech Republic, increasing the total to four. They'll either join the Greens (probably), or ALDE (the liberals, less likely) in parliament.
     
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