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Hurricane Season 2017

Discussion in 'Real Life Discussion' started by Lindsey, Sep 7, 2017.

  1. Lindsey

    Lindsey Order Member

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    As this hurricane season is looking to be a repeat of the disastrous 2005 season with multiple big hurricanes hitting the US, I decided it is time for a thread.

    As of a few minutes ago, Irma is looking to make the worst possible path through the US.

    The strongest part of the storm (the Northeast eye wall) is going to slam right into Miami area as a Category 4 or 5 (winds between 130-160 mph with gusts over 200). The Florida keys are going to be absolutely destroyed, and Tampa is going to suffer horrible storm surge. I would not be surprised if mandatory evaluations are not in place within a few hours. This is the first time that two category 4 or higher storms have hit the US in the same season (let alone within a few weeks of each other).

    [​IMG]

    After this, the models diverge a little bit. The EURO/ECMWF (the most accurate) is saying it will go right up the state of Florida and screw everyone in that state.

    [​IMG]

    The GFS model says its going to go offshore, back into the Atlantic as a Category 2 or 3 and then hit Georgia/SC

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]


    This is absolutely horrifying. This hurricane has already completely destroyed many islands, including Barbuda and St. Maartin. Here are pictures of the devastation.

    http://www.express.co.uk/news/weath...res-Caribbean-photos-storm-floods-photographs

    Apparently FEMA is almost out of money as well, as most of it went to Harvey. Ugh, I feel bad for those in Florida. This sucks.
     
  2. Wildfeather

    Wildfeather Seventh Year Prestige

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    We have mandatory evacuation for mobile homes and people in zone A (less than 11' necessary to flood). I'm in D myself (28' iirc), but even based on the projections for where I live, I don't expect to get much more than fast winds and lots of rain. Speaking for Pinellas County here.

    Which is what a hurricane is, essentially, but people on the coast are going to get FUCKED. It'll be pretty savage I expect. My maternal family (mom + sister) are leaving to North Carolina - good luck on the interstate mom- and my paternal side is in NY. My in-laws will probably stay come hell or high water (literally) but can go to Georgia if they want to, they have family up there.

    Personally I'm debating if it's worth it to try and board up my windows completely or just tape them over, like my father in law is doing. To be honest, I kind of hate my school for allowing the conduct they are (my teachers still expect my assignments to be turned in today), so I will either eat a bunch of 0's in order to run out to the store and try and buy wood (which will surely take hours) , or manage with what I have (or just tape the windows and pray).
     
  3. Lindsey

    Lindsey Order Member

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    While I am not sure where you live, I highly recommend buying wood and sealing up your windows if you are planning on staying. This storm has already taken down buildings designed in areas that could handle Category 3 and 4 storms. It split a metal radio tower in half on Barbuda. They are expecting all of Florida to get Category 2 or above winds (with all the South area getting 4 or 5).

    They are already calling on evacuations of areas A-C.

    Here is the new forecast.
    https://i.imgur.com/FT3xVoP.mp4
     
  4. Darth_Revan

    Darth_Revan Secret Squirrel Prestige DLP Supporter

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    Fortunately for FEMA, the bill going through congress for relief is mostly FEMA funding.

    Won't be enough, I suspect.
     
  5. Marsupial

    Marsupial Death Eater DLP Supporter

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    The further west that thing tracks the less likely I am to get hit, so the last couple rounds of model updates have been an improvement on that front. Florida's going to get slammed with that track though; I really hope it weakens faster than they're calling right now.
     
  6. Solfege

    Solfege High Inquisitor DLP Supporter

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    My sister was pretty pissed about her orders to stay in the area (she's on duty when the storm hits Monday) but recent projections are much more favorable... hopefully the most she has to deal with are cat 2 winds.

    Still, time to purchase hurricane insurance?
     
  7. Darth_Revan

    Darth_Revan Secret Squirrel Prestige DLP Supporter

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    Insurance companies generally refuse to sell policies when there's imminent threat of destruction.

    Your sister is in the military?
     
  8. Solfege

    Solfege High Inquisitor DLP Supporter

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    Not for Irma, obviously. But an hour out from the Savannah coast seems pretty dicey these days. She's a first lieutenant with the engineering corps at Ft. Stewart. Her house isn't supposed to be in a flood zone, but near enough and those flood maps haven't been updated in forever. Not to mention the winds.
     
    Last edited: Sep 8, 2017
  9. EsperJones

    EsperJones Order Member

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    [​IMG]

    Well, this is worrying.
     
  10. SmileOfTheKill

    SmileOfTheKill Magical Amber

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    I am in Sarasota, a town on the west coast, south of Tampa. This is going to suck.

    Of course the people I live with are slobs so if we get flooded, welp, time to get screwed.

    Least I live well above the surge line... but winds will be fun.
     
  11. Wildfeather

    Wildfeather Seventh Year Prestige

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    I didn't realize we had so many Floridians.

    Sarasota is too far from me, I live in St Pete (Pinellas). I'm strongly considering leaving, but that's irrational fear so... Who knows? I'll talk with my wife we may leave work early to do some work on the house and then just leave with the dogs. It's a new house for us (we bought it 2 months ago) and we didn't want to leave u less we had to but... I'm looking at the maps and it looks like the eye will pass within 100 miles of our house at catador 4 so...

    Tough decision honestly. There's nothing too expensive at my house. And we already packed essentials so if we want to leave we can. Just trying to decide if it's worth it to leave or if it's not necessary (we have only 1 evacuate order in my county, for the lowest zone and mobile homes).

    I'll be calling the wife in a bit to decide.
     
  12. Arthellion

    Arthellion Groundskeeper

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    Georgian here.

    Current tracking supposedly has the hurricane headed for metro Atlanta.

    Not going to be as bad as coastal areas obviously, but school has been canceled in my area for next week.

    Prayers going out for safety for everyone
     
  13. Seratin

    Seratin Proudmander Prestige DLP Supporter

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    Had only been following these hurricanes loosely so I was a little shocked when I realised that after Irma, there's another "smaller" Hurricane named Jose that is following the same path.

    Now, obviously this is hardly news for anyone in this thread and it's not supposed to come near Florida but spare a thought for those in the Carribbean islands already wiped out by Irma facing a second Hurricane in a week that's growing stronger by the day.

    Talk about kicking people when they're down.
     
  14. draykfyre

    draykfyre First Year DLP Supporter

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    Fwiw, the NHC says this about Irma's windspeeds and distance from the eye currently:

    Still probably better to leave even if you're out of range of the hurricane strength winds imo, and the storm surge is another consideration entirely if you're close on the coast.

    If you're plenty far away though, tropical storm winds aren't too bad from what I remember, still strong winds and rain, but losing power was the most annoying thing as long as you aren't in an area that floods. Or at least that was my experience with Frances and Jeanne in 2004. Irma is also a bit more powerful than Frances was though, and I was a fair distance away from the eye of Frances. And Jeanne was only a cat 3 at landfall.
     
  15. Lindsey

    Lindsey Order Member

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    Moving further West.

    Miami seems to be being spared from a direct hit. It will still get some pretty high winds as the Northeast side of the storm tends to be the strongest.

    It is now looking like the Tampa and South West coast is going to take the blunt of the damage. It seems to keep moving to the West. I wouldn't be surprised if it continues this way until landfall. They are expecting a high Category 4 or low 5 at landfall, even if the eye touches Cuba. The waters are too warm between Cuba and Florida for it to stay weakened from Cuba.

    [​IMG]
     
  16. The Waco Kid

    The Waco Kid Seventh Year

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    Current euro model run calling for a Cuban landfall, followed by key west, Naples and the Tampa area taking direct hits

    Edit: ninja'd with model pics

    Edit: Nice call starting this thread Lindsey, between Irma, Katie in the gulf, and Jose powering up in the Atlantic, a lot of models are already projecting the future Lee, and the possible M storm coming off Africa soon
     
  17. Lindsey

    Lindsey Order Member

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    And it's only the beginning of September...

    Here is a better view. These are sustained winds. 120+ easily. I would take this as an underestimate too, as the EURO/ECMWF tends to lower wind speed.

    This means major hurricane winds will be felt in almost every major Florida city with Orlando, Tampa, St. Petersburg being slammed. Also, the Keys may cease to exist.

    Miami and the East Coast will get awful storm surge due to the direction of the winds.

    [​IMG]
    --- Post automerged ---
    Some live streams when it hits Florida (more will be added as I find them):

    https://video.nest.com/live/CSlqzcBHqy

    Snapchat and facebook live tend to be the best sources to see what is happening.
     
  18. Wildfeather

    Wildfeather Seventh Year Prestige

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    Well, it may be stupid but I guess we are staying. Here in Central St Pete (Pinellas, D Zone) and I've boarded up my house. Now just to wait and pray I guess. I haven't been able to determine what kind of conditions we will face where I am (could be cat 4 hurricane, or cat 2 or 3 winds, flooding is almost a non-issue for us) but my wife is pretty firm on staying -because her family is staying- and I'm not firm on leaving so...

    We may leave if I wake up and have a strong change of heart. I don't mind driving in the dark.
     
  19. The Waco Kid

    The Waco Kid Seventh Year

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    Recon flight data indicating the Hurricane Katia is weakening badly.

    Sadly it looks like Irma is doing the opposite as she moves just north of the Cuban coast.

    @Wildfeather, without knowing the flood maps down by you I'm extrapolating, but as a Sandy survivor, I can say there are few things scarier then watching the ocean rise up and push its way into your house, and if you have any doubts at all about that being a possibility, you might want to get out of there.

    Don't think we'll know where she's going to hit in Fla, until she makes that turn north unfortunately though.
     
  20. Darth_Revan

    Darth_Revan Secret Squirrel Prestige DLP Supporter

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    Category 5 again as of 11 pm EDT. Hitting Cuba, and moving on a slightly more westerly track than before, which might be good news for Miami, but it's bad news for those of you on Florida's West Coast.