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Indian Elections

Discussion in 'Politics' started by Trooper, May 7, 2014.

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  1. Trooper

    Trooper Order Member

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    I hate to be the one starting threads in the Politics section, but there needs to be one for this. If just for posterity's sake.

    So, the greatest circus on earth (I also particularly like the term Gangland Democracy to describe Indian Democracy and elections) is underway and just about a week away from completion. The Indian Lok Sabha(Lower House) Elections 2014.

    For those who want to know further details of the process, here's the Wikipedia Article. :p I'm neither informed nor capable of describing the mess that is the Indian process in simple terms.

    If you're really lazy, here's a John Oliver clip which should suffice (I would really suggest watching this, even if you know everything there is to know. The clip is pretty funny and comes very close to being accurate.)

    ~815 Million voters. Voting is being held in nine phases from 7 April to 12 May, while the results of the election will be announced on 16 May.

    Some are calling this a three cornered fight with the new Anti-Corruption party AAP coming to the fore
    (i.e. A fight between INC, the grand old party of India. Left leaning, but mostly fill-your-pockets-only leaning in my opinion. The BJP, the Hindu Nationalist party. Right-Conservative. And the AAP, the Anti-Corruption movement. I'm really not sure what they're leaning towards.).

    I'm personally not sure what effect they'll have on the formation of the government, but I'm damn sure its going to totally mess with all the Vote shares and percentage calculations.

    On a personal level, I'm just hoping for a fully stable government and not another useless coalition.
     
  2. Rache

    Rache Headmaster

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    Voted yesterday for the first time. I don't feel that these elections are in anyway competitive. Everyone knows that the INC is heading for a rout and the AAP is the laughing stock of New Delhi. The only uncertainity is whether the BJP/NDA get the required majority to form the government or if the third front is capable of spoiling their plans.

    The elections 2014 aren't as tight as they usually are.
     
  3. Trooper

    Trooper Order Member

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    Eh. Its Indian Elections.
    There can be no predictions. Period.
    The sheer diversity ensures that no-one can predict what will happen.

    Also, I'm pretty certain AAP will be back in Delhi. At the least, as far as Assembly elections are concerned. But then again, my first point applies to me as well. So who knows, maybe you're right. \(o.o)/
     
  4. Constans

    Constans Sixth Year DLP Supporter

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    Just like India was Shining in 2004. And there was going to be a hung govt. with a Third Front in 2009 and/or the Iron Man Advani cuz people wanted a Strong Leader/PM, eh? Just like everybody knew those. No?
     
    Last edited: May 8, 2014
  5. FreakLord

    FreakLord Professor DLP Supporter

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    I am pretty sure TDP will win in my state. Both LS and Assembly.
     
  6. calutron

    calutron Unspeakable

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    Unlikely, even my friends at Eenadu are saying that Jagan has an advantage, both in terms of liquor and money. TDP needs the Modi factor and the caste equations to work significantly in it's favor in order to get a majority in the assembly, it might have a better chance in the Lok Sabha. But Indian election predictions are always difficult.

    ---------- Post automerged at 10:32 AM ---------- Previous post was at 10:21 AM ----------

    Congress wil most certainly not be in any position to form the government, because of Andhra Pradesh. What used to be a congress citadel under YSR, it's now unlikely that they will recieve more than 5-6 seats vs the 32 and 30 they had in 2009 and 2004 respectively. This much is certain, both the cadre and leadership of the Congress have been entirely decimated in residual Andhra Pradesh.

    But many people think this was due to the splitting of the state, which is only part of the story. The low and mid tier congress cadre had already been joining YS Jagan's party well before the state was split. After the split much of the rest of the cadre and almost all of the leadership went away either to TDP or YCP.

    The 15 MP seats of Telangana, are hotly contested between the Congress and TRS, with what many expect to be a sympathy wave for KCR and the TRS. So, it is unlikely that INC will get even a majority of these seats.

    While to me it's unclear weather, the NDA will form gov. at the center, it is highly unlikely that the INC led UPA will.
     
    Last edited: May 8, 2014
  7. FreakLord

    FreakLord Professor DLP Supporter

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    Nah, Jagan pushed away all good leaders. All the money and liquor wont save him if he doesn't have the cadre.
     
  8. calutron

    calutron Unspeakable

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    Like I said, residual AP is a very caste based society. And the conventional wisdom is that at present the YCP has certain large religious segments locked up. So unless, the TDP-BJP is able to break this hold as well as mobilize the urban vote which has traditionally been pro-TDP it will be difficult. But, the polling percentages have been high across AP, so CBN's salvation might still be at hand.

    More to your point, YCP is not a party of leaders it's the party of one man and his dead father. You could replace most of the candidates with statues of YSR and it would make little difference in terms of voter base in each constituency.
     
    Last edited: May 8, 2014
  9. Constans

    Constans Sixth Year DLP Supporter

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    I don't think I ever said or implied anything about a particular party forming the government. The point was to highlight the unpredictability of opinion polls in the country.

    That said, I do think the poll is quite a bit more competitive than people think it will be. If I really had to make a case for it, I'd point that the Congress will get more seats in Bihar - its allies, than estimated. And Telangana is more competitive than you're making it out to be. Those together would fairly easily offset Andhra/Seemandhra. Mind you, I don't think that's what will happen necessarily, but there's a possibility.

    Oh and if they do go around 120, they've historically had better luck with coalitions across the spectrum - UPA 1 was around the same number. Again, I think the scenario is unlikely but not impossible.
     
  10. calutron

    calutron Unspeakable

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    I guess we'll find out in a week.
     
  11. Xiph0

    Xiph0 Administrator Admin

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    I'm all for Muslim killers winning elections.
     
  12. tragicmat1

    tragicmat1 Death Eater

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  13. Airilife

    Airilife Not Equal

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    Truth, Justice, and totally Indian. A vote for Luckylee is a vote for India`s salvation.
     
  14. dhulli

    dhulli The Reborn

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    That's about 160 million people in India alone. I'm going to assume that's just your poor sense of humor showing through...
     
  15. Trooper

    Trooper Order Member

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    Lol. No, I think that's an amusing jab at one of the Prime Minister Candidates (well, possibly the only one, since its just himself that has declared as much), a Mr. Narendra Modi.

    Not sure though, since everyone has killed each other in India at some point or the other.
     
  16. Infidel

    Infidel Auror

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    I think that people are desperate for change. Unfortunately, to a lot of people, Modi is not a suitable alternative because they worry that his rise will be accompanied by a rise in the Hindutva brigade.

    Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying that he's responsible for the Gujarat riots. But the worry is that he did not do enough to stop it and that if such cases come up again, while he might not actively support it, he aging wont do much to hinder it.

    This is not to say that the INC led government would do great in such a situation. Their reign has seen a large number of communal clashes occur throughout the country. The trouble is the lack of an alternative group.

    The AAP looked like a strong contender for a while. At least until they formed the state government in Delhi, spent most of the time complaining about others not letting them do any work and resigned after less than 2 months. If they had stuck to the post, fought against the entrenched bureaucracy and shown something for it, they would have won without any opposition from the people in the next elections. Instead, they now seem to be a party that is all talk and no action.

    I'm almost dreading the vote counting on the 16th.
     
  17. Trooper

    Trooper Order Member

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    Eh, I'm not worried about the Hindu-Muslim stuff escalating. That shit has been going on for a long time. Its not going to change. Or at least not to the degree it did when the Babri Masjid was demolished.

    What I'm more worried about is the RSS messing with the textbooks and curriculum of our schools.
    While our textbooks are filled with a lot of extreme left-leaning shit, it doesn't mean the RSS has to put its own shit in there.
    I tend to go with Arun Shourie on this one. But you can be damn sure the RSS is gonna go ten steps further than what Arun Shourie suggested.

    Shit like "Test tube babies being present in the period of Mahabharata" or "ALL TEH SCIENCE IS INDIA! HURR DURR!!!" being present in our textbooks for kids is what worries me.
     
    Last edited: May 9, 2014
  18. FreakLord

    FreakLord Professor DLP Supporter

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    LOL. I actually want them to do this. It would be hilarious. :D
     
  19. Trooper

    Trooper Order Member

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    Well, then you should enroll the kids you have or are going to have in the VidyaBharati and/or those schools belonging to RSS. The "Test tube babies in the time of Mahabharata" is a real quote from one of their "elective" text books.

    :/

    While I appreciate that they've opened so many schools which are accessible even in the villages and are damn cheap, I hate that they introduced pure bollocks like that in their curriculum.
     
  20. Xiph0

    Xiph0 Administrator Admin

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    Of course it was a Modi joke. Watch the John Oliver clip.
     
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