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Investment Thread

Discussion in 'Real Life Discussion' started by Lyndon Eye, Jul 12, 2013.

  1. Lamora

    Lamora Definitely Not Batman ~ Prestige ~

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    Hey all.

    I'm 7-8 months from getting out of the military, and I've built up a decent chunk of change (about 20k liquid) that I want to put to better use than just moldering in a savings account. I also have an additional 20k in the TSP (and am planning on having 30k by the time I'm out), in a 70% 2050 lifecycle (mine, being 25 years old)/30% stocks-international distribution.

    I plan on going back to school and using up the full dispensation of my Post 9/11 GI Bill, which should pay out about 33k in BAH a year going to school in NYC. A large portion of that will obviously go towards living expenses and housing, but the gist is that I'll have a steady living and financial situation for the next 3.5 years.

    Currently, I'm planning on separating back to New York (NYC, specifically). To take advantage of that steady period, I'm looking into ways to grow the money I (more or less) know I'm not going to need to touch. I'm not looking for high-risk - my main goal is to beat inflation and reinvest dividends. It'd be nice to hit double digit returns, but I'm not willing to go too high risk for it.

    I've been looking into low-expense short/medium New York municipal funds and ETFs for that purpose, since they're state and federal tax-immune. Currently, I've pinpointed FEMIX, FNYCX, PRFHX and PATFX as ones that seem promising for that purpose and keeping my investments diversified at least by fund if not by state. Anyone else have any suggestions, either for municipals or other ways to improve my strategy?
     
  2. Sesc

    Sesc Slytherin at Heart Moderator

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    What is your timeframe? If it's the 3.5 years, you might have a hard time with any sort of passive investing. No one has a crystal ball, but most people do think we're due for a recession at some point in the next years. Entirely possible that this fucks you big time if you do need the money in three years (and never attended resp. had someone attending to the invest before then). Needn't happen ofc, but something to consider.
     
  3. Xiph0

    Xiph0 Administrator Admin

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    Index Funds or ETFs that track Index Funds are probably your best bet for low risk steady growth. Link
     
  4. Lamora

    Lamora Definitely Not Batman ~ Prestige ~

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    If by timeframe you mean ‘time I’m willing to not touch the money’, I can safely say 10-12 years.

    My family is upper middle class and while I’d prefer not to fall back on them, I’m not on the streets if some sort of financial emergency crops up.

    3.5 years is just the time I ironclad know I’m going to have a steady living regardless of circumstance. Obviously I plan on entering the workforce after that and earning equal or greater to my previous income, I’m just not ruling out the idea that it won’t be immediate or certain.
     
  5. SilverOtter

    SilverOtter Seventh Year

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  6. Sesc

    Sesc Slytherin at Heart Moderator

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    @Lamora: In that case, I misunderstood, sry. And what Xiph said. Over 10 - 20 years, you historically have gotten 7% give or take on average per year out of indexes. My go-to is the MSCI World index, but it's like 60% US anyway, so if you prefer some S&P, whatever. I've got no idea about tax related stuff obviously, here, ETFs are basically impossible to beat if you consider total expenses when investing. See e.g. Otter's link.

    And regarding risk, the next thing that comes after ETFs are probably T-bills, which would give you like 2%? 2.5%? OTTOMH. What's your inflation currently like? Here's it's like 1.5%, which would give you a little bit of room -- but then again, our T-bills are just back to 0% yields ... after negative yields, people paid the German gov to buy bonds :S
     
  7. Xiph0

    Xiph0 Administrator Admin

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    You can get T-bills that factor in inflation, but the yield is lower. In almost every case you're better off with index funds or ETF's tracking them if all @Lamora wants is low risk solid gains.
     
  8. Ched

    Ched Da Trek Moderator DLP Supporter

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    Just installed the Robin Hood app to play with - used dhulli's referral code. If anyone wants mine let me know.

    Puts me at about the following for my monies:
    • 45% in my retirement funds
    • 40% invested with help of a financial planner (for now anyway)
    • 10% in Savings account (2% interest)
    • 2% in Cryptocurrencies
    • 2% in Checking Account
    • 1% in RobinHood
    I'll put my next overtime check into RobinHood. This week I just tossed a tiny amount in there to play with the app.

    Great explanations and links from everyone above regarding how options and whatnot work. Thanks for that.
     
  9. Erotic Adventures of S

    Erotic Adventures of S Denarii Host

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    Hows that treating you?
     
  10. Ched

    Ched Da Trek Moderator DLP Supporter

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    Not as badly as it's treated some. Down about 15-20% of what I put in (back in 2017).

    I was up for a while, traded some for smaller coins where the white paper looked good (getting a few before they got listed on major exchanges), traded them back into others that were on bigger exchanges when I got tired of watching it every week.

    Honestly I've been treating it like a learning experience. After my overtime check for this year comes in I'll put the same total amount into Robin Hood.
     
    Last edited: May 11, 2019
  11. dhulli

    dhulli The Reborn

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    Whelp, here you go. I figured some of you would enjoy seeing me lose 21k in a day.
    Screenshot_20190603-131157_Robinhood.jpg
     
  12. Xiph0

    Xiph0 Administrator Admin

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    I have sell orders for some of my shares that I put at 50% of initial value, just in case 2008 happened and I wasn't paying attention that day. Trump tweeting about Mexico tariffs sent a couple of them through that floor. Praise Cheeto man.
     
  13. Sesc

    Sesc Slytherin at Heart Moderator

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    It's more :rolleyes: than enjoy XD

    Not that I'm doing much better. I just about managed to get out of US tech before it collapsed under me, but Trump's first China tweet was a bloody massacre. Turns out beating the market only gets you so far: better than terrible is still bad.

    Sigh. I really had wished for the good times to last at least through this year. Right now, it looks as if Trump is doing everything in his power to kill good news -- given everything, people now have to assume that even if there were trade deal with China, it wouldn't mean anything in particular :|
     
  14. Xiph0

    Xiph0 Administrator Admin

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    I mean, it's a lovely time to buy provided you put aside cash to buy with.
     
  15. Heleor

    Heleor EsperJones

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    I'm just riding it out!
     
  16. DR

    DR Secret Squirrel ~ Prestige ~ DLP Supporter

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    I was up 1% for the day. Yay chemicals and industrial hardware?
     
  17. pbluekan

    pbluekan Headmaster DLP Supporter

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    I'm still riding high on Cisco Systems. Nice little 2.5% dividend and 27% on the year to date. Fuck yes.

    @Ched Don't put any more in your robinhood than that. Trading, especially options, feels like gambling. You even get that same rush when you do well. Robinhood just makes it too fucking easy to dish in money. @dhulli (no offence, dude) is a case study in that.
    --- Post automerged ---
    In other news, the ADP Jobs report was abysmal.
     
  18. dhulli

    dhulli The Reborn

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    Alright so the dip was mostly because of the scare caused by the FTC. And naturally i kept buying the dip (which contributed to the size of the dip...)

    Naturally, following the "just hodl bro" strategy paid off. Although i did pussy out and sell most of it after i had recovered my losses, i still got a nice bump after.

    Screenshot_20190610-120557_Robinhood.jpg
     
  19. fire

    fire Auror

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    Kinda late, and perhaps I'm just beating a dead horse, but just get an index tracker; never go into managed funds where they actually try to pick winners and beat the market. Empirically, index trackers outperform managed funds; see Fama & French (2010). The reason for this is straightforward - stocks reflect publicly available information, so unless you're engaging in insider trading you're not going to be able to beat the market. Of course, some funds do, but that's just pure dumb luck, and they regress to the mean soon enough - their past track record is no indication of future success, just as how one guy happening to flip a coin 10 heads in a row is no indication that he'll have a better than 50% chance of getting a heads on the 11th flip. This fact - that active trading doesn't beat the market - in combination with the high fees imposed by managed funds, means that actively managed funds not just fail to beat the market, the returns are worse.

    Tldr; use index trackers. Alternatively, just re-up.
     
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