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North/South Korea meeting

Discussion in 'Politics' started by Microwave, Apr 27, 2018.

  1. Sauce Bauss

    Sauce Bauss Headmaster DLP Supporter

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    It's worth remembering that Trump tried to dissolve the US/South Korea free trade agreement, but that would never induce South Korea to cast a favorable light in order to improve his disposition toward them. It was actually the unplanned, potentially unauthorized, hour long meeting that ended the Korean war. Not the election of a South Korean president who had broken ranks with the United States and entered dialogues with the North, and certainly not pressure from China after they summoned Kim Jong Un to Beijing after his antics the last year.
     
  2. TheLazyReader

    TheLazyReader Groundskeeper

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    I was unaware CNN runs propaganda for Trump now. What a bunch of turncloaks.
     
  3. Arthellion

    Arthellion The Chosen One

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    I’d say Trumps contribution includes sending Pompeo and being crazy enough to actually restart the Korean War.

    I fully recognize the negatives of such a strategy and don’t support it...but Trump accomplished what he set out to there.

    That’s a Trump victory that has brought a net positive in that region imo.

    Trump’s an idiot and as it regards relations with Europe has done a dismal job...but he’s, (for the most part), kept his promises to his base.

    If it wasn’t for his character issues he’d be even more supported.

    Edit: Also to respond to this

    I lean towards defending him on this site because DLP leans pretty heavily left. In my conservative social circle I'm more inclined to point out the negatives. Echo chambers are dangerous and need to be broken. It's important to consider all sides otherwise you're nothing more than an ideologue.
     
    Last edited: Apr 27, 2018
  4. Hakairyu

    Hakairyu Third Year

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    I love it when Americans call someone very pro-Democrat/very social liberal "far left". Or heavily left as Arthellion put it.

    Let's not pretend that this is the first time an American president is being partially credited for something that happened during their term that they didn't actively work at every turn to bring about. Hell, Sauce even admits that they would credit Clinton if the lucky thing happened under Clinton. You've got a plethora of reasonable battles to pick, go pick them instead.

    And I'm very much open to the idea that Kim III doesn't think following his predecessor's "methods" would be sensible and that he is willing to do whatever to retain power. He is rumoured to have had to deal with a lot of internal opposition in his first year is he not? And none of this would have happened without China's permission, anyway. So reunification is obviously off the table. What I do wonder is, are we perhaps looking at a China-like transition to capitalism in NK?
     
    Last edited: Apr 27, 2018
  5. Arthellion

    Arthellion The Chosen One

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    Just to clarify, I used the term heavily as it regards numbers of people on DLP who are pro-democrat/social liberal...not the actual position on a political scale.
     
  6. TheLazyReader

    TheLazyReader Groundskeeper

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    Heavily agree to this. No debating (and I'd argue no discussion) is happening if everyone is just agreeing with everyone.

    I was just talking about this with a colleague today. It's not something unthinkable Kim might want to change the economic system of his country and bring about some development.
     
  7. Chengar Qordath

    Chengar Qordath The Final Pony Prestige

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    Yeah, it's rather blindingly obvious to everyone on the outside that North Korea needs to do something major to actually get a functioning economy. The big question is whether Kim can pull off economic reforms without any major political changes. It's hard to open up to foreign trade while still being the hermit kingdom that tries to keep its populace completely cut off from the outside world.
     
  8. Arthellion

    Arthellion The Chosen One

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    I agree this is the biggest issue for Kim.

    When your populace finally begins to realize how heavily they've been indoctrinate/wealth that exists in other nations/benefits of democracy...you definitely see the potential for uprising/revolution.

    Kim's between a rock and a hard place. Would love to see North Korea become a democracy...and it Kim would be willing to actually make that happen (he isn't) that would be the perfect scenario.
     
  9. TheLazyReader

    TheLazyReader Groundskeeper

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    I wouldn't say democracy for NK is on the table for a long time, but change can happen, albeit very slowly. It should help to keep Kim in power if he's the one to bring it about. He would be building something for his country and not just following on his father's trail. People remember that. He should still find opposition along the way, but in a much better spot with the people's support than an old-fashioned dictator fighting a revolution. If he can bring development to his people and be loved for it, I don't see how they would think it an immediate necessity to replace him.
     
  10. Aekiel

    Aekiel Angle of Mispeling Prestige DLP Supporter

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    If anything, NK is going to go the Chinese route, with a heavily entrenched political class that has an authoritarian degree of control over its population. Democracy is likely not even on the table for them.
     
  11. Solfege

    Solfege Headmaster DLP Supporter

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    Rather solipsistic to credit these developments on balance to western exceptionalism. Events such as these are a complex confluence of influences. For instance, the underreported fact (being inconsistent with the preferred western interpretation of NK intransigence) that there were multiple attempts by North Korea to make contact during Park Geun-hye's term that her administration ignored. This came out after her impeachment, the primary source being Jang Shiho, a niece of the cult leader, Choi Soon-sil, who backed Park, and has been independently confirmed via multiple sources. For instance, NK officials visited the 2014 Asian Games in Incheon but were rebuffed.

    The reason for Park's inaction vis-a-vis NK, despite her rhetoric of reunification being "a bonanza" to both peoples, was a conspiracy by Choi to induce the collapse of the NK regime (somehow) in order to make Park's reelection bid. The current South Korean constitution does not allow for presidential reelection, but such a critical event could force amendment or even a temporary recusal of the constitution.

    The transition of power from an ardently anti-reconciliation government to a pro-rapprochement one is surely a major factor.

    Then we cannot fail to give credit to Kim Jong-un. The man seems to've been outmaneuvering all of us. A year ago he was the world's pariah; today he has both Xi and Trump tripping over themselves to influence him. Chinese imaginations are running wild: they have no seat at the table, and their worst nightmare (far unlikely as it is) would be a pro-American nuclear power at their doorstep. Most of us wouldn't have realized, but Kim scheduled his nuclear tests to coincide with and disrupt Chinese festivals and holidays. While Kim has taken steps to reassure Xi (a state visit invite would've been unthinkable last year), he's also shown himself willing to tempt us the concession of longstanding points of negotiation, such as dispensing with the objection to American troops on SK soil, to Chinese annoyance.

    Kim's demonstrated, this past year, of being able to cannily play up both "maximum pressure" and "maximum engagement" strategies. I've nothing but admiration for his sheer ballsiness, especially if this is the result of his mastering and transcending the domestic elite circles of NK politics in short time. Something I'm sure Assad wishes he could've done. I wouldn't be surprised if this were the culmination of a lifetime of thoughtful planning by Kim, and I look forward to skillful negotiations on his part going forward. Even supposing test resources/capabilities are drying up, information asymmetry is on his side.

    Where Trump has played a role, and a major one, it's been nonetheless incidental. His administration's contribution was not Twitter bluster --- I believe brinksmanship gaming by and large irrelevant in bringing NK to the table, because there are far more specific signals in terms of imminent warfare to look for by analysts on both ends (tantamount to the rankings/grades vs competence discussion we just had in TOMD). The administration's contribution was rather applying diplomatic pressure on China, UN sanctions on Chinese and Russian smugglers, and China in turn, increasingly irritated by NK since Obama days, applying pressure of official sanctions on NK.

    The effect this has had on Kim is likely also an indirect one, shaping his perception of the opportunity windows to implement a strategy he's already had in place for quite some time.
     
    Last edited: Apr 27, 2018
  12. Darth_Revan

    Darth_Revan Secret Squirrel Prestige DLP Supporter

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    I mean, his whole regime's superstructure is built on exactly the opposite sentiment, but hey, I'm sure you know more than you seem to about Nork leadership intentions.
     
  13. TheLazyReader

    TheLazyReader Groundskeeper

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    There's no need for that, I'm not here claiming to be a political specialist. For all we know he won't go through with any of his promises.
     
  14. Darth_Revan

    Darth_Revan Secret Squirrel Prestige DLP Supporter

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    Then let's apply that healthy skepticism to the WH's patently ridiculous media blitz, shall we?
     
  15. TheLazyReader

    TheLazyReader Groundskeeper

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    I'm not being opmistic or hopeful here in regarding to Trump's involvement. It's a fact SK has credited Trump. You'll forgive me I hope if I don't immediately dismiss it as lip service.
     
  16. Kevizoid

    Kevizoid Third Year

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    I for one will happily credit President Trump for managing to not fuck everything up should this situation end well.
     
  17. Perspicacity

    Perspicacity High Score: 3,994 Prestige DLP Supporter DLP Gold Supporter

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    Pretty much this. My wife is active on Chinese social media and their public has been very worried about the possibility of massive radiological contamination coming from Punggye-ri. While theirs is an authoritarian regime, Chinese leaders do still gauge the sentiment of the people to keep them pacified. The protests ending in the Tiananmen Square incident were an object example of the stakes of getting this wrong.

    I suspect it would not surprise anyone if peace talks and the cessation of their nuclear testing program were NK's price for maintaining Chinese support, which they desperately need.

    I couldn't care less if Trump claims credit or not for events on the Korean peninsula.
     
  18. Joe's Nemesis

    Joe's Nemesis High Score: 2,058 Prestige

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    This was exactly my thought. At least, this the driving force behind it, IMO. Now, are there currents under the water that are forcing China to do this outside of nuclear concerns? Perhaps. It may even be that China wants to put an end to Korea's saber rattling so they can focus more on an economic war with the US without having to worry about Korea touching off a physical war that could expand into China (from their perspective concerning destroying military industry and routes into Korea). Or, it may be completely based on Chinese-Korean relations without concern for the West as China may be simply wanting to reassert hedgemony over N. Korea. (Decent write-up on that possibility, although a few months old).
     
  19. Aekiel

    Aekiel Angle of Mispeling Prestige DLP Supporter

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    I wouldn't be surprised if this is just a stalling tactic because they lost a shit load of nuclear scientists last year and the test caverns this year. They need time to regroup after setbacks like that, so staving off the chance of a US invasion is something that has to be a priority for them now.
     
  20. Perspicacity

    Perspicacity High Score: 3,994 Prestige DLP Supporter DLP Gold Supporter

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    Do you have a link to their nuclear scientists having being killed? I've heard this claim in a variety of venues but haven't seen confirmation in the media.
     
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