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Putin Wins Russian Elections

Discussion in 'Politics' started by DR, Sep 19, 2016.

  1. DR

    DR Secret Squirrel ~ Prestige ~ DLP Supporter

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    Reporting from the Economist has Putin winning the elections in Russia (surprise!). It's been tainted in Western media by widespread reports of election fraud (surprise!).

    United for Russia, Putin's party, won about 55% of the vote, with a record-low turnout of about 48% of the electorate (and that's with the ballot-stuffing).

    Obviously this means Putin isn't going anywhere anytime soon, and he has a continued mandate to rule Russia and carry out his ambitions in the Russian Near Abroad. Bad news for Eastern Europe, NATO, and the West in general.


    EDIT: No sooner do I post this than the Telegraph reports Putin plans to re-constitute the KGB.

    Needless to say, Russia took another step towards being the New Soviet Union today.
     
    Last edited: Sep 19, 2016
  2. Perfo

    Perfo Squib

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    Let us hope that it won´t be happening
     
  3. Heleor

    Heleor EsperJones

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    Um. I wasn't sure if the topic name was satirical... Was there any doubt in the election?

    (Also, I'm glad I don't live there. We got out right after the soviet union fell, and it doesn't seem like it has gotten any better in the meantime.)
     
  4. Xiph0

    Xiph0 Administrator Admin

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    Reconstitute with the name Stalin favored no less. What a fucking disaster of a country.
     
  5. Joe's Nemesis

    Joe's Nemesis High Score: 2,058 ~ Prestige ~

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    Is it any surprise? I mean, Putin was KGB, the appointed to the head of the FSS by Yeltsin, a former Politburo member himself (although a self-styled reformer). Medvedev, his protegé, turns around and installs him right back into a seat of power from which he against jumps to president. He gravitates to, and keeps, power.

    I'd be more surprised if people didn't think Putin would do something like this.
     
  6. DR

    DR Secret Squirrel ~ Prestige ~ DLP Supporter

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    This is actually very shocking news and will be a radical change if he creates this MGB.
     
  7. Download

    Download Second Year ~ Prestige ~ DLP Supporter

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    I dearly hope we don't see appeasement if the Russians really start their dickwaving. With the current political moon in many European countries I fear that will happen and Nato will lose the initiative.
     
  8. Aekiel

    Aekiel Angle of Mispeling ~ Prestige ~ DLP Supporter

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    Can't do much militarily either way. They may not be the major power they once were, but they still have nukes so military responses are off the table. We'll be stuck with forcing sanctions on them, but unlike North Korea and Iran, Russia can fight back using the gas pipelines into Eastern Europe.
     
  9. Innomine

    Innomine Headmaster ~ Prestige ~ DLP Supporter

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    Hypothetically, what's to stop Russia from slowly annexing small pieces of land like they did with Crimea?
     
  10. viburnum

    viburnum First Year

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    [​IMG]

    They will have 344 seats out of 450.
     
  11. Imariel

    Imariel Headmaster DLP Supporter

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    The eventual border to NATO.
     
  12. Joe's Nemesis

    Joe's Nemesis High Score: 2,058 ~ Prestige ~

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    Not too shocking to me. Look at the trajectory of his leadership, and a move like this looks pretty inevitable to me. I won't say I expected this, exactly, but something similar is pretty much right in line with his actions concerning the rights of citizens and free speech.
     
  13. DR

    DR Secret Squirrel ~ Prestige ~ DLP Supporter

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    I see where you're coming from, but that's not the part that I was referring to. His naked aspirations to the old Soviet glory days aren't the issue.

    The fact that he would make this move inside the context of the Russian security establishment is what's shocking. Memories of the KGB are long and almost universally regarded as bad, and the consensus has been that the separation of the security establishment into multiple entities has been thought of as a good choice to limit overreach and abusive practices.

    The fact that he is willing to so publicly make a move resurrecting those days of the gulags and rule by fear, instead of simply increasing the powers of the police state without overtly recombining them into the All Powerful KGB speaks to his sudden increase in political confidence that is both shocking and disquieting.
     
  14. Taure

    Taure Magical Core Enthusiast ~ Prestige ~ DLP Supporter

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    Aekiel Innomine Imariel

    Relevant article to show what a clusterfuck this is:

    Now consider that the UK's military is the best funded in Europe. Putin is laughing. All he needs is a slightly more isolationist US foreign policy and he can do whatever he likes.
     
    Last edited: Sep 25, 2016
  15. Aekiel

    Aekiel Angle of Mispeling ~ Prestige ~ DLP Supporter

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    Well, the same problem applies to him as it does to us. A nuclear power is practically immune to conventional assault, so unless Putin wants to risk ruling over a nuclear wasteland, he's not going to attack a NATO member outright.
     
  16. Innomine

    Innomine Headmaster ~ Prestige ~ DLP Supporter

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    But the minute one nation starts using Nuclear weapons, so will the other one. It's an escalation that would end with much of Europe (if not the world) uninhabitable.

    There's a reason why Russia focuses on having a strong military as well as Nuclear Weapons. It doesn't have to invade England, just keep taking small bites out of other countries. An America with isolationist policies would be devastating for Europe.
     
  17. Taure

    Taure Magical Core Enthusiast ~ Prestige ~ DLP Supporter

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    I'm not so sure the nuclear deterrent stops conventional threats like it used to in the Cold War - if it would even have done so back then. NATO's finger isn't on the trigger like it used to be and Putin knows it. MAD, rather than a deterrent to all attacks, has become something permissive: because we know that MAD stops both sides using nuclear weapons, but we also know that both sides are no longer prepared to launch nuclear weapons at the first minor provocation, it's possible that we could engage in conventional warfare without either side resorting to their nuclear arsenal.

    If Russia suddenly invaded the UK tomorrow with conventional forces, do you really think the US would launch a nuclear strike, knowing that it would be met in kind with a retaliatory strike? I sincerely doubt it, and I think Putin doubts it too.

    The nuclear deterrent is still necessary, mind you. If only one country had nuclear weapons they would be free to use them as the US did on Japan, and that makes them essentially master of the world. So you still need to have nuclear weapons, but only really to cancel out the existence of nuclear weapons.
     
  18. Aekiel

    Aekiel Angle of Mispeling ~ Prestige ~ DLP Supporter

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    Honestly, I don't know if we have the political will to press the button, if needed, but given the furore over Jeremy Corbyn's stance on the nuclear deterrent and the military's response to that, I think it's still a core part of our defensive strategy. We don't have the conventional forces to withstand an attack, but I think that actually increases the likelihood of nuclear weapons use.

    One reason for this is, as you said, MAD has become more permissive as a doctrine. Nobody wants the world to end up a nuclear wasteland, so perhaps the prevalent doctrine now is the use of tactical nuclear weapons, rather than first striking with a strategic bombardment of the enemy's country. The use of a single nuclear weapon could, effectively become a warning shot that informs the enemy that we are willing to use them and that continued conventional attacks will escalate the conflict.

    I expect that such a use would be a very effective means of forcing the enemy to the negotiating table.

    EDIT: Also, we have our own nuclear weapons, and some of our NATO allies have launch silos within their borders.
     
    Last edited: Sep 22, 2016
  19. Imariel

    Imariel Headmaster DLP Supporter

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    Taure, you indirectly agree that NATO remains effectively untouchable whilst the US remains. Have you seen anything that indicates the US is willing to do such a thing? To, in essence, hand over the reigns of global politics to the russians?

    No one is arguing that NATO sans the US is toothless, it pretty much is. However it is not yet without the US, something we as europeans (although mayhaps not I as a swede) should be grateful for.

    The one part of Trumps policy statements I can actually applaud is the notion that he'll put pressure on the rest of NATO states to once again increase their defense spending to atleast 2% of GDP. Might give some effect, though I doubt it'll be enough with the current european attitude towards military spending as a whole.

    The shift towards anti-insurrection warfare during the last decade is both natural and easily explained, yet as you say a severe problem should we, alone, encounter conventional warfare against a qualified opponent.

    I'd argue it's not likely that the US will leave NATO. Nor is it likely that NATO states will increase their defence spending without severe pressure from the US, in effect a threat of leaving them to fend for themselves against a Russia that's even more actively chewing up pieces of non-Nato land. In conclusion, the US needs to grow a pair and smack some Europeans to do their fair share.
     
  20. Innomine

    Innomine Headmaster ~ Prestige ~ DLP Supporter

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    I expect that if Russia suddenly invaded Britain, Britain would respond with nuclear force against a city like Moscow. Neither of these scenarios is in any way likely, though.

    Putin's many things, but stupid isn't one of them. He's under no pressure to invade, all he has to do is keep slowly building power and keep taking small strategic victories here and there. If the US keeps declining in its stagnation and complacency since the end of the cold war, then it's only a matter of time before Russia's position becomes more dominant. Could become the new regional power without a single shot being fired between Russia and NATO Europe.
     
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