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The New Mess in Mesopotamia

Discussion in 'Politics' started by Aurion, Jun 15, 2014.

  1. Trooper

    Trooper Order Member

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    I think the bigger problem in the near future is going to be ISIS forming some kind of conglomerate (However iffy it is) with the Taliban. The Taliban are just itching to get back to power in Afghanistan. With the US withdrawal coming up, this looks like a tinderbox that is most probably going to be struck. I don't see any reason, apart from there being a contention with who becomes caliph in the end, that the Taliban wouldn't use ISIS reinforcements to achieve its own goals (Please correct me if I'm wrong here).

    With the Shia-Sunni Sectarian conflict spreading into Libya with full force, its only a matter of time before it comes into Pakistan as well (Saudi Arabia just spent ~1.5 Billion$ into Pakistan for Pakistan's indirect support into Libya). Now that's a can of worms I don't think anybody wants to see. What with Pakistan's better late than never operation against terrorist strongholds (Zarb-e-Azb, I think its called) starting just now...
    Well, I think we're up for some violent times ahead.
     
    Last edited: Aug 6, 2014
  2. Hashasheen

    Hashasheen Totally Sirius

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    Fuck. Can only hope Hezbollah steps up to the plate with the LAF and kick them out of Arsal.
     
  3. Banta

    Banta The Chosen One DLP Supporter

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    ISIS got started in Iraq back in the mid-00's and received plenty of help from al-Qaeda at the time. They split, eventually, though whether it was due to ISIS committing atrocities or an administrative turf war is anyone's guess. Since the Taliban is close allies with al-Qaeda (at least they were last I checked, that could have changed) I don't really see them allying with ISIS, at least until they step away from the whole killing anyone that isn't their brand of Sunni Islam.

    Does anyone know what the Kurds are up to? They've been pretty silent through this mess, and if anyone could reap some benefits from the whole destabilized Iraq thing it would be them.
     
  4. Evil Shnitzel

    Evil Shnitzel High Inquisitor

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    Some of them are fighting ISIS.
    It's a strange world when one finds himself cheering for Hezbollah. Better the devil you know.
     
  5. Knoq

    Knoq Temporarily Banhammered

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    The kind of brutality that WWII was fought with, even by the Americans, simply isn't done today. Because its simply considered barbaric. The kind of slaughter that was on the table for the invasion of Japan would have cowed just about any reasonable nation into submission. Japan had had 40 years to indoctrinate its entire population, Hitler didn't even have 10 before he was at war with everyone. Japan had managed to convince very nearly the entire able bodied population to take up arms in open resistance. To the point that they were going to arm people with sharpened sticks and knives because they didn't have enough guns.

    They were planning to use sympathy-ambushes and such, the kind that happens today, but back then simply were not tolerated. Back then, non-uniformed partisans had no rights in the laws of war. None. The USA was expecting over a million casualties against an enemy they had every advantage over, including and utterly brutal lopsided advantage in raw firepower. Had the Emperor not taken the offer of surrender, its possible that more than half of the Japanese population would have died, possibly up to 75%, in the results of a futile effort to resist the American conquest.

    And nobody would have been particularly surprised or appalled at the use of force.

    That's the key. Back then, it was understood that the conventional fight was really the only fight. Because if you kept up fuck fuck games, concentration camps and firepower demonstrations were abound. Granted, America fed the people in its concentration camps, both in the Philippine's after we stole it from Spain, and during WWII. But the British didn't, not entirely, during the 2nd Anglo-Boer war. It was understood generally that once you were conquered, whoever conquered could and would use however much brute force was required to pacify the area, so long as the conqueror was capable. And so if you wanted to live, after the war was concluded, you kept your head down and prayed everything would be okay.

    I'm glad we don't fight COIN like that anymore. It's morally abhorrent in foreign wars of choice, and barely justifiable against internal affairs.

    You want to know what would have happened if we did fight wars like that, with modern day capabilities? Afghanistan and Iraq would have been "pacified" by 2006. And the world would call us monsters and rightfully so.

    But that's why Japan surrendered so completely and gave no fuss and why it won't be done today. They had lost a staggering amount of fighting age men, and were under no illusions about what further resistance after surrender would entail.
    This. We left with the general attitude of "I am tired of hearing about it and I just don't give a damn what they do to each other any more.". They are keeping it to each other. So we don't give a damn.
    Hezbollah are some hardcore motherfuckers. But there are only so many of them and they can only do so much. Especially with already being commited to helping Assad in general.

    The best scenario there is is Iran being given the tacit consent to go ahead and basically conquer Iraq or at least Eastern portions of it. Along with an alliance of sorts with the Kurds and the Peshmerga.
    It's quite sad to say this but the military we left Maliki was actually fairly decent, nationalist, and little politicization. It's Maliki that went with Tribal loyalties, nepotism, and other bullshit that destroyed the morale of his Iraqi Army. They wouldn't exactly have eaten ISIS alive, but the would have held their ground. Maliki and his bullshit is entirely to blame for the failures of the current Iraqi military.
    True, but for now, they just seem to be getting bigger and more powerful. They should hopefully crest here soon.
     
  6. Chengar Qordath

    Chengar Qordath The Final Pony Prestige

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    Not to mention how much more damage they'll cause before going down, and how much they'll take with them.
     
  7. Erotic Adventures of S

    Erotic Adventures of S Denarii Host

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    Like a few tens of thousands of people stuck on a mountain slowly dying of dehydration?

    Maybe, maybe this will cause a little international condemnation and action.
     
  8. Erandil

    Erandil Minister of Magic

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    The problem is that to really hurt ISIS you would have to field troops in Iraq and Syria which is something I don´t see any (western) power do, especially since the last interventions didn´really produce the expected results. (Libya anyone?)
     
  9. Knoq

    Knoq Temporarily Banhammered

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    The most obvious way to have ISIS find itself in deep shit is for Iran to mobilize its regular forces and roll into Iraq. But if you want a way to set the region on fire, that would do it.
     
  10. Banta

    Banta The Chosen One DLP Supporter

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    Iran has been sending some of its military into Iraq for a while now, regular and special forces.
     
  11. Invictus

    Invictus Banned

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    So the US is lauching air strikes agains ISIS to protect kurdish territorry. And ISIS has control opver the country's largest dam.
     
  12. Innomine

    Innomine Death Eater Prestige DLP Supporter

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    Where is the Dam located? Ie, what would happen if they let all the water go?
     
  13. Banta

    Banta The Chosen One DLP Supporter

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    It's in the north around the city of Mosul, and if the water is released then it would flood Mosul, with lower levels of flood water reaching all the way down to Baghdad. Or they could bottle it up and cause a draught. Both situations kind of suck, to say the least.
     
    Last edited: Aug 8, 2014
  14. Darth_Revan

    Darth_Revan Secret Squirrel Prestige DLP Supporter

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    They've also been taking power stations and other points of strategic interest. ISIS has a bunch of old Iraqi guard corps officers in it, so they've been acting with more strategic cohesion lately.
     
  15. Knoq

    Knoq Temporarily Banhammered

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    Yeah and we maintain personnel there still. It isn't the same as full mobilization.

    Anyways, wow, airstrikes. Its getting serious now.
     
  16. mknote

    mknote 1/3 of the Note Bros. DLP Supporter

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    Is there any threat that they would destroy the dam if they feel threatened?
     
  17. Invictus

    Invictus Banned

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    Nothing reported, but ISIS isn't very open with threats unless they are about follow with it.
     
  18. Erotic Adventures of S

    Erotic Adventures of S Denarii Host

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    No point, these guys aren't terrorists and they aren't stupid. They want to rule the land as an independent nation, the damn is very valuable.
     
  19. Russano

    Russano Disappeared

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    This region of the world blows.
     
  20. Evil Shnitzel

    Evil Shnitzel High Inquisitor

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    Apparently they kidnapped hundreds of Yazidik teenage girls recently.
     
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