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The Trumperium 2: Caesar by the Pussy

Discussion in 'Politics' started by Jon, Jun 15, 2017.

  1. Darth_Revan

    Darth_Revan Secret Squirrel Prestige DLP Supporter

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    So it's not his words that matter, but his actions, but his actions don't matter? Get your story straight.

    I don't have to convince his base, I have to convince swing voters. And these things matter to them.

    The Dems won 5 for 5 in special elections after Obama was elected and still got creamed in 2010, so that means less than it looks like.

    I'd point out that when it comes to impeachment, it's Congressmen and Senators who I'm trying to convince. Still, I take your point. The healthcare issue is one worth pushing because if the GOP continues along this path, maybe it will help win some seats. The VA and NJ races this year will be a good test case.
     
  2. Invictus

    Invictus Heir

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    It's still 4-1 and lots of money wasted for no little concrete gains. And just like with Clinton, no way Congress gonna impeach him without really good reason or being completely taken over. Make the Russian problem a partisan one or viewed through that and... Well. You know. So I would advise wait and see and give GOP some credit, even if the bare minimum.
     
  3. Innomine

    Innomine Auror Prestige DLP Supporter

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    And how's that working out for you?

    The point is, you've been crying wolf since he announced his bid for the presidency. You've kept crying wolf since he was elected. And now that the wolf is here, no one's paying attention as it's just the same old shit day after day (When I say 'you' here, I mean the liberal US strategy in general, not you specifically).

    At this stage the argument becomes circular. There is no one easy answer here, the situation changes, and you have to keep changing with it or be left behind. Right now you are simply doing the same shit repeatedly and hoping that it randomly starts working.
     
  4. Darth_Revan

    Darth_Revan Secret Squirrel Prestige DLP Supporter

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    Yea, well, we were right, weren't we?

    I've heard your objections. We disagree on what must be done. That's the end of it.
     
  5. Innomine

    Innomine Auror Prestige DLP Supporter

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    You have the cold comfort of being right, but still failing.

    Fair enough on your second point though, agree to disagree.
     
  6. Hopper

    Hopper Second Year

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    So, the 100,000th time somebody tells you about starving children in Africa, is that the point at which you start caring and pony up money? Or the first time, when you can really muster up some outrage?

    Yes, I'm making an analogy on how to drum up support for a cause.
     
    Last edited: Jul 12, 2017
  7. Darth_Revan

    Darth_Revan Secret Squirrel Prestige DLP Supporter

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    Remember that earthquake in Peru a few years ago?

    No, you don't, because people stopped talking about it.

    (See? I can make stupid disaster analogies, too.)
     
  8. Invictus

    Invictus Heir

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    No. You're just being stupid. As in. Incredibly fucking stupid. If you think starvation in Africa is generated by continuous natural disasters instead of corruption, violence and fucking horrible land management, then you're a complete moron. I don't even have words to how imbecilic this comparison you just did is.

    Worse, unless there are daily earthquakes in Peru, caused by human beings, then no, your analogy isn't an analogy. It's just a systematic failure on all levels of understanding the things you're comparing.
     
  9. Hopper

    Hopper Second Year

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    So Trump is a natural disaster that everybody will forget in a few years when everybody stops talking about him. Makes sense. Hope it brings you comfort.

    Meanwhile, it might surprise you to know that politics is not in fact a natural disaster. Just like children starving in Africa is not a natural disaster, but a matter of corruption and poor governance, which can be fixed. Just like Trump. If you stopped to think for a moment, rather than be continuously outraged.
     
    Last edited: Jul 12, 2017
  10. Innomine

    Innomine Auror Prestige DLP Supporter

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    Eh, arguments done guys. He's admitted he can't refute what we say but is going to just stick his head in the sand. Continuing it is just going to devolve into name calling (ie, Invictus' natural mode of existence).
     
  11. The Iron Rose

    The Iron Rose Order Member

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    Post more news of the Trumperium, guys.

    Here, I've one for you.
    Kushner is such a pain in the ass, Trump may have to get a new legal team.

    Choice disturbing quote.


    Creepy as fuuuuuck.
     
  12. Quiddity

    Quiddity Auror

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    Donald Trump's base is shrinking (538)

    To clarify: this is not news, it's an old article. But I think it's relevant to bring up now, because there's some misconceptions here about the success/failure of certain strategies.

    Which is not to say that they are working perfectly. I think there are criticisms that can be made of the Democrat/Moderate Republican approach since November. But I think the foundations those are laid on are important.

    Trump is not an invincible juggernaut. His popularity has slipped, both generally and amongst his base. He's not impeachment-level unpopular (although it's arguable that Nixon wasn't either, and that in today's era he wouldn't have gone when he did) but, broadly, I disagree with this:

     
  13. Oment

    Oment The Betrayer

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    Trump is only going to get impeached (or do a Nixonian resignation) if a sizable minority of GOP Senators decides that enough is enough, on top of a probable Dem House (or so close that individual defections matter.) Given past years, past impeachment attempts, and the current state of polarisation in the US, I'd say this will probably be about five minutes before the heat death of the universe. Maybe twenty minutes prior if the Dems somehow hold on to every single Senate Seat and pick up the House with a decent majority.

    Trump is here to stay. Anyone thinking differently, well, I've had my say on that before. The US elected him, and sadly, the whole world has to deal with the consequences.

    Invictus, while you are correct in that no special elections have flipped, your analysis of 'no won seats, gg no re' is superficial and fails to respect swings. SC-5 swung 8.5 %, GA-6 10 %, M-At large 4.7 %, KS-4 12 %, all GOP to Dem, all respective to the 2016 House elections. It is similar in 2010 (which I am using because it is post ACA-enactment, which was probably a good part of the Dem loss in November of that year) in reverse, with PA-12 swinging ~5 %, FL-19 swinging ~6 %, and HI-1 swinging 20 %, Dem to GOP. Normally, these three results, too, should have had no effect on the composition of the House, except HI-1 saw some colossal incompetence from the Dem candidates in that neither dropped out.

    If you're missing two special elections in there, that's correct, but mono-party elections are kind of irrelevant.

    That having been said, I don't particularly like prognosticating from afar. This time next year, we might have more information about how it's looking to shape up once we know who is running where and so on and so forth, on top of less time for things to go pear-shaped on whatever topic you want to think of (i.e. more reliable confidence intervals.).
     
    Last edited: Jul 12, 2017
  14. Spanks

    Spanks Minister of Magic

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    Honestly I feel this Don Jr story would be a bigger deal with the public if every story the last 20 years wasn't treated like the next Watergate. I mean for gods sake CNN has a "breaking news" alert every 30 minutes. I can understand why people have grown apathetic to scandal. This is why whenever I talk to friends about the news I always tell them to just stick to their local papers and don't pay attention to TV news or the national papers. Everything they need to know will be talked about in a local newspaper.

    As for the story itself I don't think it's gonna make a difference in the immediate sense. If there's something there Mueller will find it and we'll know over the next few years.
     
  15. Rehio

    Rehio The Chosen One DLP Supporter

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    So am I understanding this basic timeline correctly?

    June 3rd - E-mails to schedule a meeting about dirt on Clinton.

    June 7th - Trump gives a speech where he talks about discussing "all the things that have taken place with the Clintons."

    June 9th - Meeting happens. Supposedly the meeting didn't contain the dirt they wanted?

    June 13th - Trump doesn't follow through on the whole "Clinton" thing and gives out no new information.
     
  16. Banta

    Banta The Chosen One DLP Supporter

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    I disagree on this because this isn't a war we are losing. All the pieces matter. Every bit of information that is actionable that's been coming out over the last six months (and before) is helping build the case about Trump to the public. I doubt Trump's base will be convinced, but they are not the ones who we need to convince. Swing voters and Republican voters who picked Trump because he wasn't Hillary are, and we have evidence (the margins in the special elections compared to the general last year and previous Congressional elections) that it is working.

    Congress also matters: what brought Nixon down wasn't just the tapes, it was Republican legislators telling him they couldn't support him anymore. Congress isn't there, but it's getting closer by the day as more of their voters are convinced.
     
    Last edited: Jul 12, 2017
  17. Silens Cursor

    Silens Cursor The Silencer DLP Supporter

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    Which becomes very relevant when even if your constituents don't care about Russia (and given the whole undermining of democracy, they definitely should, but whatever), they do care about Trump promising everything, from health care to infrastructure spending to the wall and the pony that won't get over it. And the longer that the Republicans can't push a legislative agenda with majorities in both houses (along with the consistent drip of blatant corruption and bad optics), the more diehard Trump voters will look reluctant.

    It's why McConnell's trying to take advantage of the chaos and push a new bill out tomorrow, with CBO score by Monday and a vote that same week. Thus far whenever he's tried this level of secrecy it's backfired because of stronger mobilization (turns out people give a shit about their health care), so we'll see if that continues.
     
  18. Darth_Revan

    Darth_Revan Secret Squirrel Prestige DLP Supporter

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    A short word, for those following the news in re Donald Trump Jr., on the exact meaning of the charge of 'treason', and why you should be cautious not to use it without just cause:

    Title 18 U.S. Code § 2381 states:

    I have heard a lot of people in the news and on social media throwing this around with respect to the current state of our knowledge about DTJr's meeting with a Russian government-affiliated lawyer. As yet, however, (public) evidence does not yet exist to suggest that DTJr 'adhered to our enemy' (meaning, loyalty to an enemy) or 'gave them aid and comfort' (help of whatever sort).

    I stress 'as yet'.

    In the meantime, that is NOT to say that DTJr could not be guilty of a slew of other charges about said meeting (namely conspiracy to commit campaign finance violations and conspiracy to pervert the course of an election, among others).

    But we should be cautious to be accurate in our speech, lest we run afoul of the truth and lessen our credibility.
     
  19. bob99

    bob99 High Inquisitor

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    I also read some commentary pointing out that some of the specific statutes behind the crimes that some people have accused Trump of are complicated, untested, and not well known. And politically a prosecutor is going to want to bring charges that are extremely solid and well thought out if they go after Trump. So there's a good chance that people may be more interested in impeaching Trump over normal things like perjury or obstruction of justice related to an investigation rather than something more exotic like collusion.
     
  20. Darth_Revan

    Darth_Revan Secret Squirrel Prestige DLP Supporter

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    That's true, but I would stress to you the idea that impeachment doesn't actually have to be about things that are in the criminal code. The Constitution (unhelpfully) says 'high crimes and misdemeanors', but never actually bothers to tell us what those are. So the House, technically, can deliver articles of impeachment about...whatever they want.

    Also, it would be the House who would have to vote to impeach, it wouldn't be prosecuted by the DOJ (although Mueller would likely be in a position to make a public recommendation to the House), and the Senate would have to convict (affirm the impeachment) before any criminal charges could ever be brought in Federal court. This is because it is (under our current understanding) not possible to indict a sitting president.

    So there's some really woolly subtlety there.