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The Trumperium 2: Caesar by the Pussy

Discussion in 'Politics' started by Jon, Jun 15, 2017.

  1. Darth_Revan

    Darth_Revan Secret Squirrel Prestige DLP Supporter

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    Dems will probably pick up around 35-40 House seats. GOP probably keeps the Senate, with maybe a gain of Heitkamp's or Nelson's seats but a loss of Flake's and Heller's.

    2020 is too far out to predict.
    --- Post automerged ---
    The GOP retaining the House is extremely unlikely, if still technically possible.
     
  2. Solfege

    Solfege Order Member DLP Supporter

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    It would have to be a pretty major, world-shattering trip, given how local these races are and thus insulated from national trends.
     
  3. kinetique

    kinetique Professor

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    Not too long until we find out.
     
  4. Agayek

    Agayek Heir

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    Oh for sure. It's extremely unlikely. One of those things I don't expect at all, in much the same way I didn't expect Trump to beat Clinton, but US politics has been fucking weird the last few years, and the hail mary isn't something that can be conclusively ruled out anymore.
     
  5. Chengar Qordath

    Chengar Qordath The Final Pony Prestige

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    I'd imagine that if they did have data for 1934, FDR's ratings would've been great. The New Deal Coalition was huge, and the Republicans were still suffering from being blamed for the Depression and attempting to stop the New Deal.
     
  6. Oment

    Oment The Betrayer

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    That's my guess as well, but it's an assumption as opposed to a certainty.

    Re: 2016, I'm just going to borrow one of Nate Silver's more favourite talking points as of late and mention that, even though people tend to round up 75 % to 100 % mentally... That's not a thing you should be doing. Trump had a 2-in-7 in 538's model, and well, he hit it. You've probably bet (generically, doesn't have to have money involved) on worse odds quite a few times.

    Re: this year's election - Dem House, GOP Senate is conventional wisdom, and for now, this is the more probable scenario. However, a sweep for either side isn't exactly a unicorn with the current numbers either. Imagine, for example, a world in which Dems have a very solid lead in the national House polling, but a good portion of the true tossup territory ends up falling GOP - that could lead to something like a 219-216 look in the House, GOP adv. Vice versa, Heitkamp, Nelson, McCaskill hold, while Flake's seat and Heller fall and you suddenly have a 51-49 Dem Senate. These aren't impossible scenarios - if you want impossible, look at Utah or New York, rather than Florida or Arizona.

    It's only certain once everything has been counted and arguably once everyone has been sworn in, of course. We've seen that a few times in recent history.
     
    Last edited: Oct 12, 2018
  7. vlad

    vlad Groundskeeper Prestige

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    GOP marginal gains in Senate, holds house with either minor gains or minor losses(+/- 10)
     
  8. Arthellion

    Arthellion Ban(ned) Arthellion

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    Libertarians win the Senate.
    Green Party wins the House.

    /s.
     
  9. Agayek

    Agayek Heir

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    I fucking wish. That'd be the best thing to happen in US politics in decades, and may just scare both of the main parties into fixing their shit.

    It's never gonna happen though :(
     
  10. Lindsey

    Lindsey Death Eater

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    2018:
    Dems take the House
    GOP keep the Senate

    And... We will have a government shut down by 2019.

    2020:
    I think this hinders on if we enter a recession, which many economists are now predicting (including the economist).

    With the 2008 recession still on people's minds, and the fact that many people still haven't recovered... The backlash will likely be stronger than a normal dip. With Trump's numbers already dangerously low, a recession would kill off his support further. This, in turn, will effect the whole Republican party.

    IF a recession happens, 2020 will go not only to a Democratic President, but also a majority in both Congress and the Senate. If the recession is serious enough, I could see Congress potentially becoming a super majority (there are a lot of Republican candidates in 2020 up for election). Unlikely, but possible.

    If the economy keeps thriving, it is up in the air and really depends on who the Democratics pick as a candidate. As for the Senate and House... no idea.
     
  11. kinetique

    kinetique Professor

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    I don't see a world in which 4 years of continued economic prosperity doesn't lead to Republicans winning in 2020. Unless there is a really good candidate put forward by the dems, which frankly I don't see happening.
     
  12. ChronicallyInsane

    ChronicallyInsane Squib

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    Well one man's economic prosperity is another's downfall. Just because people in the top 20% bracket are doing better than ever doesn't mean that life is happy go lucky for the rest.

    Perspective shift aside, there's even some merit to debating where or not this is actual economic prosperity we're looking at, or in fact a cynical cash grab before the unsound methods that brought us here (i.e neutering the US' income via tax cuts) bring us crashing down to reality (a recession, or even a full fledged repeat of 2007/8) Real economic growth takes time, effort, and even some sacrifices in order to maintain growth, in the long term. Long term gains sacrificed on the alter of short term profit never really work out in any meaningful sense -- ask a junkie.

    That said, Joe voter is statistically more likely to be a moron, so in all likelihood your point is correct after all; and this entire post was superfluous. Oh well.
     
  13. Darth_Revan

    Darth_Revan Secret Squirrel Prestige DLP Supporter

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    4 years of uninterrupted growth and record low unemployment didn't win it for the Dems in 2016.
     
  14. Agayek

    Agayek Heir

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    To be fair, the Democrats, at least in recent years, have been fuck-awful at messaging and capitalizing on that kind of thing, while the Republicans have not.

    That's not to say there's a guarantee either way, just that I think you're maybe falling into the whole "it didn't work for us, so it can't work for them" trap.
     
  15. kinetique

    kinetique Professor

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    For whatever reason there's a global phenomenon of conservative leaning political parties being associated with economic prosperity. For whatever reason it just resonates with swing voters more if economic success appears to happen, or continues to happen under conservative government.

    Don't forget that Trump sold the lie of economic failure under Obama, there's no reason he won't be considered doubly successful now.
     
  16. Silens Cursor

    Silens Cursor The Silencer DLP Supporter

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    It also helps that the current administration has an entire propaganda network that routinely tells its audience to ignore all other sources of news content and actively parrots his talking points.

    And it might be easy to laugh at that, but it matters, especially for the larger discourse and honing a message. Say what you will about CNN and MSNBC, they've never taken that much of a hardline state as FOX has over the past few years (and certainly not in the same way MSNBC did during the second half of the Bush administration with the pundits they put on), and there really is no news source that's convincingly left-wing to challenge it.

    And hell, if you go online it's much the same - left wing YouTube is not nearly as fiercely organized and dedicated to a message in the same way the right-leaning channels are, or if they are they routinely humiliate themselves (The Young Turks remain the most consistent example there - I'm left-leaning and that channel is so consistently cringe). Because as much as I might think any rational person on this board could take the Ben Shapiros or Paul Joseph Watsons apart, there just isn't a left-leaning network or figure with their presence or audience, and to reach and sway online audiences, that's a problem.
     
  17. kinetique

    kinetique Professor

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    I think you're outright delusional about CNN's reporting. In fact I think you underestimate how blatantly obvious the culture war happening between the left and right hand side of politics is, not that it's only relegated to politics.

    I think it's poetic that Kanye being denigrated on cnn is matched by Taylor Swift being denigrated on fox.
     
  18. Darth_Revan

    Darth_Revan Secret Squirrel Prestige DLP Supporter

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    Kanye being insane isn't exactly news. The man's been three forks short of a place setting for a long time.
     
  19. kinetique

    kinetique Professor

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    Thankfully Don Lemon is working overtime to inform us of the latest Kanye news. An apparently bi-polar man with grandiose delusions leaves plenty to report on.
     
  20. Darth_Revan

    Darth_Revan Secret Squirrel Prestige DLP Supporter

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    I guess it was a slow news day.
     
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