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The Trumperium 2: Caesar by the Pussy

Discussion in 'Politics' started by Jon, Jun 15, 2017.

  1. Arthellion

    Arthellion Supreme Mugwump

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    DLP has the best political conversations on the Internet and it’s not even close...

    The amount of expertise/adherence to logical standards is what I imagine the Founders/Locke/Plato etc imagines when they talked of good citizens engaged in civil discourse.

    Just wanted to throw that out there and say thanks to everyone that contributes to that high standard.
     
  2. vlad

    vlad Auror Prestige

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    I would appreciate a link to this well documented documentation.
     
  3. Sauce Bauss

    Sauce Bauss Headmaster DLP Supporter

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    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    CMS
    Pew
     
  4. vlad

    vlad Auror Prestige

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    Thank you. I will need to go through it obviously, but I appreciate the very fast turnaround.
     
  5. point09micron

    point09micron Seventh Year

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    At a glance those charts seem to show that the number of people present illegally (and I like how they show their bias by calling them "unauthorized immigrants") is trending down overall, but the ones that aren't leaving are staying longer in what looks like an exponential increase curve.

    Also it doesn't make it clear from the first chart whether the decrease in the number of illegals is because they're sneaking back across the border into Mexico or being deported. I'd be willing to bet it's due to increased deportations though. I know the media never reported on it because they were too busy dick-riding the guy, but deportations under Obama were far higher than under Bush 2 Bush Harder. It's honestly the funniest part of the modern debate on the topic that everything Trump is derided for (deportations, ICE being assholes, separation of families) started before he even announced his candidacy, and was done on a far wider scale particularly under Obama.
    --- Post automerged ---
    Can't tell if sarcasm. This discussion hasn't been particularly acrimonious but there have been lots of bad ones recently. I recall a lot of petty name-calling during the Kavanaugh days last summer. Thumbs up applied on the presumption you're being serious :D
     
  6. Invictus

    Invictus Half-Blood Prince

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    Well Omar called Obama just as bad as Trump, but more polished.

    Well, Omar really likes spiting those Russian/Hamas propaganda lines. I really don't like Obama's foreign policy, and Trump is arguably quite worse in most points, but this kind of line is just pure sophistry to get quick attention. Want to know how the Black Caucus gonna react to this one.
     
  7. Microwave

    Microwave Seventh Year

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    What Arthellion is trying to say is that the difference between here and Reddit, for example, is that most people here actually address what you're saying to them before they call you stupid.
     
  8. Arthellion

    Arthellion Supreme Mugwump

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    @point09micron Microwave has the right of it. Being serious. Yeah we have stupid arguments, but the standard of having to prove that the argument is stupid is there. The discourse and expectation is that you’ll do your best to not be an idiot and back up your points.


    I’ve learned more from these threads than many of my university classes. And for that I’m grateful.
     
  9. vlad

    vlad Auror Prestige

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    Here's the MIT/Yale study that pegs it at least north of 16M at the low end, and gets up to just around of 33M on the high end. Meaning up to one-in-ten people in this country could be illegal aliens. I'll admit that seems high, and even in the given study is seen as a low probability.

    Takeaways so far:

    1. I want to be clear on this - I don't think most people defending the 11M number are doing so in bad faith. This is clearly the official line. But the model for determining it is one long list of assumptions about demographics after another. And, as argued by MIT/Yale, has been undershooting the number since at least 1990.

    2. We've got a bit of a google-wikipedia style feedback loop occurring in the official data, as everyone using the 11M number is referencing the other 11M results as their methodology and initial assumptions. PEW and CMS didn't arrive at the same value independently, and it's not just them.

    3. The trends though are agreed upon, that numbers have decreased between 2008-2018. That said, proportion of anchor babies have gone up.

    4. One of the things being used by the 11M number to is looking at Mexico census records. Sadly, I could not find the 75 question 'full census' of 2010, because it would have been amusing to confirm one way or the other if Mexico asks a citizenship question on its census. If anyone knows the answer to this question one way or the other it would be appreciated. As immigration proportions come increasingly from elsewhere in Latin America, I expect this data to degrade. I trust (to use the term loosely) Mexico's ability to accurately capture this data than say, Guatemala.

    I'm inclined to go with between 20-25 million as of right now. Obviously, I don't have access to all the parts that went into the algorithms used. And I certainly don't have the resources to go and investigate population discrepancies thirty years ago, which seems to be the root cause for differences.

    If nothing else, 11 million is the most 'public friendly' number that the government believes it get away with as promoting as the official line. With Trump, you can make the case he wants the largest number possible; but both the Obama and (especially) Bush administrations had a vested interest in promoting the lowest number they could get away with. My not unreasonable assumption is that the government uses the least alarming number it can get away with when discussing demographics, debt, and deployments.

    Finally, the fact that nobody; whether you say the number is 11M or 30M, can come up with a straightforward approach to measuring what is one of the most obvious national issues and affects policies from taxation, national elections, college tuition, crime statistics, selective service, affirmative action, etc etc etc... says a lot. Everyone is making massive appeals to national policies based on a group of people that we can't conclusively pin down to the nearest ten million.

    Heh. Should put it on the census and agree that if it's under 15M they all get amnestied and if it's over 15M they all get deported and Trump gets the wall. With the former being checked by the deal being voided if more than 15M apply for amnesty once the program takes effect, applied retroactively.
     
  10. Agayek

    Agayek Prisoner DLP Supporter

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    <insert wailing about the state of modern education here>

    Yeah... that's not gonna go over well with a lot of folks. Clearly, that's not the folks Omar cares about, but she's making enemies at a pretty silly pace. I'm honestly rather curious how long she's gonna last before she's forced out or has to walk it back.
     
  11. awinarock

    awinarock Fourth Champion

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    Don't forget our incest/beastiality debates! I'm sure old Ben Franky would shed a tear if he knew that the future of America is just as perverted and open to philosophical debate as its past.
     
  12. momo

    momo Groundskeeper

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    Someone better primary Omar next cycle. The progressives welcome primaries right. Then primary her.
     
  13. Oment

    Oment The Betrayer

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    It's fairly standard critique of Obama from a disillusioned idealist point of view. Not surprised to hear those words come out at all this cycle, but Omar is probably the worst person to bring it up at this juncture. Even if you believe that her earlier words were harshly taken out of context by some combination of being new, increased [Democrat/minority woman] scrutiny, and other reasons,, she does not need another case of that a literal week after the last time it happened. Obama's pretty popular with Democrats and all - even if people don't fully agree with everything.
     
  14. momo

    momo Groundskeeper

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    See but this is kind of bull shit. When a republican who happens to be a man says something bad, everyone goes of, including me. Because that's the right thing to do.

    But when Omar does it, it's because of gender and religion?
     
  15. Oment

    Oment The Betrayer

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    That is not what I said, please try again.

    -edit- Okay, that's a bit curt. Here's the thing: if you feel that Omar is under increased scrutiny because of who she is (Democrat, muslim, muslim woman, not-white, etc etc etc), and if you feel like that's caused people to go at her too harshly, then I cannot possibly imagine a world in which you read this and go... "Yes, this is what is going to allow you to slide into non-scandal territory "- by criticising someone with 95 % approval rating amongst Democrats..

    Was Obama perfect? Hell the fuck no. He's also one of the most influential politicians the Democrats have at the moment by virtue of being the previous President and being a very favourable (for them) comparison to Trump. Tread very lightly and speak very carefully about him.

    FYI and disclaimer: I set out earlier in the thread that the first is IMO likely as regards her Israel lobby comments but that it in no way excuses her.
     
    Last edited: Mar 9, 2019
  16. The Iron Rose

    The Iron Rose Headmaster

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    What the fuck clearly I've missed something amazing/terrible.

    Apparently I need to stop relying only on bookmarks
     
  17. Oment

    Oment The Betrayer

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    There was some earlier mention that may or may not be relevant for context, but the real fun started here. (The 2020 thread, post 513, in case link doesn't work or stuff.)
     
  18. Invictus

    Invictus Half-Blood Prince

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    Ocasio-Cortez Blasts Capitalism as an `Irredeemable' System

    Guess what's going to be passing in all GOP ads...
     
  19. Solfege

    Solfege Headmaster DLP Supporter

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    She could stand to take a page out of Warren's book about being pro-capitalist versus being pro-business.
     
  20. Invictus

    Invictus Half-Blood Prince

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    That would require honesty and intelligence that AOC seems to lack and specially, actual knowledge and experience about the real world outside activism and politics and summer jobs.

    In fun times, "Trump branded former ally Ann Coulter a “Wacky Nut Job” — less than a month after insisting he did not follow the conservative commentator and blamed journalists for exaggerating her influence over White House decision-making." Gio once commented that Coulter is now a much lower effort and sad sad copy of the troll she once was. This seems to be becoming more true everyday. Her attempts at trying to be relevant and Trump's visceral necessity to shoot anyone that he feels didn't pay enough respect to hkm make for some fun comedy at least.
     
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