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The Trumperium 2: Caesar by the Pussy

Discussion in 'Politics' started by Jon, Jun 15, 2017.

  1. Solfege

    Solfege Headmaster DLP Supporter

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    Thought this was tongue-in-cheek but rereading this couldn't help but clarify in case. Putting the question on the survey means you're surely not going to extrapolate anywhere near 15M from the survey sample of fewer than 3% US households, because those particular respondents will be short and/or inaccurate, and not to that question only (into which you'd still have to run the records for non-legal status). You want to pick your measurement tools that will least skew the results.

    And achieving best Census accuracy is what is of concern, particularly when Census data is so valuable in apportioning federal resources to states and localities, evaluating and implementing equal rights laws, planning around current and future needs of communities, and guiding private sector investment decisions. There's quite a lot more at stake beyond the direct apportionment of House seats.
     
    Last edited: Mar 10, 2019
  2. Darth_Revan

    Darth_Revan Secret Squirrel Prestige DLP Supporter

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    Representatives represent everyone in a district, whether they are citizens/voters or not. Visa-holding residents and Green Card Holders and yes, even illegal aliens, need schools and bridges, too. And on the flip side, they pay taxes and generate economic and civic activity, just like citizens do. The Founders understood this. To claim otherwise is just blatant stupidity and ignores both the Constitution and 240 years of legal doctrine. Do better.
     
    Last edited: Mar 11, 2019
  3. momo

    momo Groundskeeper

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    Or #YangGang a capitalist who cares about the people.
     
  4. point09micron

    point09micron Seventh Year

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    2 things in response to this:

    1. I seriously doubt the founders imagined the country would ever be at a point where a measurable fraction of the people living here were citizens of another country who snuck in.

    2. As I pointed out a few pages ago, the illegal aliens generally don't pay taxes. At best 1/3 of them file tax returns, and there's certainly not enough collected to balance the cost of them being here overall. I also said several pages ago that they should be counted for purposes of apportioning funds, but not for assigning Congress seats and electors until they become citizens. Hence why having the question is a good thing.
     
  5. Darth_Revan

    Darth_Revan Secret Squirrel Prestige DLP Supporter

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    Irrelevant. Representatives were apportioned based on the total population specifically to avoid voting citizen apportionament.

    Source? Because IRS estimates that on payroll taxes, closer to 50% of working illegal aliens pay them, and that's not even counting sales and excise taxes, gas taxes, and other consumption taxes that you can't avoid.

    The question is a transparent attempt at provoking an undercount in Blue states, which would have a negative affect on funding allocations regardless of whether or not you agree with the idea of apportioning congress that way. So the question is a stupid idea.
     
  6. Stealthy

    Stealthy Seventh Year

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    Apportionment is only part of the goal. Most illegal immigrants live in cities/metro areas (with 61% in just 20 areas alone). Reduce the apparent population of these liberal areas and you can fit them in less districts, leading to further/easier gerrymandering in the redistricting process.
     
  7. Sauce Bauss

    Sauce Bauss Headmaster DLP Supporter

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    I looked through the Yale/MIT study's methodology and while nothing immediately leaps out as being incorrect, the totality seems hard to swallow. At the high end, 10% of the US population is illegals and the Hispanic population is either 50% larger than any other study or analysis ever done or 60% of them are illegal immigrants? That sounds ludicrous to me on the face of it. Hell, we can even use generic proxies like the number of people who don't speak English exclusively at home which is ~60mm. 37mm of that is Spanish, so at that point we're assuming, what, 60%+ of all incidental Spanish speakers are illegal including second languages, Puerto Ricans, etc.? Again, that seems beyond the realm of possibility for me.
    Data
    1. Well, I could repeat the point that constitutionally there's no such thing as illegal immigration. You really think the Founders couldn't envision a nation where a "measurable fraction of the people living here were citizens of another country?" The ratio of foreign born has varied by +/- 5% since 1850 with an average level of 10.7%. We don't have data from earlier, even though I went through the 1790 census. I don't recommend ever trying to read the 1790 census, haha. I've seen estimates of 300k-400k at the time of the revolution, with a total population of 3.9mm which is about 9%.

    2. The Congressional Budget Office estimates a 50-75% rate of payment from unauthorized immigrants. The Institute for Taxation and Economic Policy estimates 50%. The Urban Institute, Migration Policy Institute, Pew Hispanic Center, and the Center for Immigration Studies estimate a 55% compliance rate. The Center for Comparative Immigration Studies at the University of California at San Diego's survey indicated a 75% compliance rate. Illegal/unauthorized immigrants pay taxes, though for illegals it's generally understood that they do still draw more from federal benefits than they pay in federal taxes. Those numbers all appear in the CBO's report. For the record, authorized/legal immigrants do end up as a net benefit, so I support a path to legal status on that note, but that's just, like, my opinion man.

    As for the apportionment of electors, we decided that property was deserving of representation back then. If slaves were entitled to representation, then what justification is there to withhold it from free-born residents?
     
  8. Oment

    Oment The Betrayer

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    There's sourcing, there's above and beyond, and there's self-inflicted torture.

    This is somewhere waaaaaay behind the latter.
     
  9. Sauce Bauss

    Sauce Bauss Headmaster DLP Supporter

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    The data's not hard to interpret on old documents like that necessarily, it's more about the f s's and the fact that most are scanned. Off center, off color, half faded printings in partially illegible print. I've looked at shipping manifests from back then and it's awful. Just imagine trying to read people's names written like that. @Taure probably knows that particular joy.
     
  10. Oment

    Oment The Betrayer

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    I've checked (scans of) medieval manuscripts. It's a pain.
     
  11. vlad

    vlad Auror Prestige

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    It's bad enough trying to read the scan of a fax of a typewritten report kept in a less that climate controlled warehouse from 1980. Take it back 200 years...
     
  12. Rhaegar I

    Rhaegar I Death Eater

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    At least we have scans and indexes of those records. Imagine going through boxes of paper or rolls of microfilm just to maybe find that one person.
     
  13. Arthellion

    Arthellion Supreme Mugwump

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    Side-note. Record preservation studies are obviously legitimate degrees and pursuits, but that field is drastically changing due to the nature of digital records. There are now multi-disciplinary archivists who are required to have backgrounds in both history and computer science.

    What was most fascinating to me is that, just like regularly archivists, they have to protect the digital files from degradation and constantly have to fix them.

    Some interesting stuff going on there. One keey concern too, is that digital records are actually more easily lost than hard copies. A lot of historians I know rely alot on meeting minutes and such, but with everythin online and in email, its really difficult to do historical research.

    Anyways, Internet Archaeologists and Anthropologists will definitely be things within the next 20 years.
     
  14. vlad

    vlad Auror Prestige

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    After the big fire in the Brazilian museum, one thing that's been on my mind is the painfully slow process of digitilization. Granted it's a lot of effort and also granted there's a lot of shit that's been produced in the past 4.5 billion years or so.

    Still seems like something we ought to consider coughing up the cash and hiring throngs of english and history majors to get onto.

    I'm pessimistic of any sort of space colony in my lifetime, but the ability to codify all human knowledge for that sort of transit is something we'll need for that, too.
     
  15. Rhaegar I

    Rhaegar I Death Eater

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    I'm actually going to get a graduate degree in library science with a focus on archives, so it'll be fun for me to consider the best way to preserve and organize all those resources. Hell, I'm even considering learning Yiddish (an endangered language only used nowadays by the elderly and the ultra-Orthodox) and focus on centuries of Jewish material relatively few Jews can even understand!
     
  16. Oment

    Oment The Betrayer

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    Manafort sentenced to 73 months in second trial, 30 of which run concurrent with his previous sentence.

    And he's just been indicted by the NY District Attorney.
     
    Last edited: Mar 13, 2019
  17. deyas

    deyas Seventh Year

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    I feel ever more content.
     
  18. Invictus

    Invictus Half-Blood Prince

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    Means he would be at least 69-70 when getting out. If he gets out. One can hope
     
  19. The Iron Rose

    The Iron Rose Headmaster

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    I'm torn on Manafort because on one hand he's a scummy motherfucker who should 100% be behind bars but on the other hand it's hilarious to see radical leftists who always bitch about long sentences bitch and reveal themselves as the ardent hypocrites they are.
     
  20. Oment

    Oment The Betrayer

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    The disconnect between the sentencing guidelines and the actual punishment (which is still above average, I am informed) from the Virginia case is quite extraordinary. (Old Vox article on sentencing guidelines.*) I don't think there's any disagreement on that. However, I don't think that's the thing leftists should focus on when they compare Manafort to other sentences - mandatory minimums are.

    Not coincidentally, they're - at least in some cases - one of those issues where the US public is generally in favour of reducing them, but given the way that two party politics go... Not happening.

    *Of course, you can't exactly sentence below guidelines if said guidelines are mandatory - lest you get overruled - but you'd need approximately 60 % of sentences to be mandatory for departure from guidelines to be majority when it's actually possible. Given this wasn't marked, I've my doubts that is the case.)

    Technically, he'd be 69-70 when getting out if Trump pardons him, that is true.
     
    Last edited: Mar 14, 2019
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