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The Trumperium 2: Caesar by the Pussy

Discussion in 'Politics' started by Jon, Jun 15, 2017.

  1. Mordecai

    Mordecai Drunken Scotsman Prestige DLP Supporter

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    I remember reading something a few years ago about the Supreme Court referencing foreign laws in their decisions. If they're able to do that, surely one state supreme court could take a bit of influence from the decision of another?
     
  2. Agayek

    Agayek Heir

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    Foreign laws have zero relevance to American law. It can be referenced as a successful/failed example of a given law, as part of the supporting arguments, but it can't be used as the basis for the argument for or against something.

    But otherwise, that's basically what I was saying. If there are similarities between this and a future case (for example, if this ruling was about how the State Supreme Court has final say on the interpretation of that state's constitution, and the future case is an appeal of a State Supreme Court decision), then this case would be precedent that would help inform the decision.

    But that is true regardless of whether or not the future case is about gerrymandering. And it could just as easily be precedent that supports gerrymandering in a different state. It all comes back to the particularities of each case. There is no blanket "gerrymandering didn't work under the PA constitution so now it also doesn't work under the MA constitution". Legalities don't work that way. It's all in the details.
     
  3. pbluekan

    pbluekan Auror DLP Supporter

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    I’m pretty sure that Alito’s will have an impact on other states simply by virtue of existing.

    As @Agayek said, state legislatures and courts will reference it as an example and I don’t doubt there will be a rash of these sorts of laws/rulings. Of course, should it move to a federal court, it can be used as proper precedent by any state court or legislature.
     
  4. Darth_Revan

    Darth_Revan Secret Squirrel Prestige DLP Supporter

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    I mean, I'm basically quoting you.
    --- Post automerged ---
    That is true, unless it's a treaty, or a principle of international law.
     
  5. ASmallBundleOfToothpicks

    ASmallBundleOfToothpicks Professor

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    Yeah, in exactly the same way that Sanders is "basically Trotsky." Look, if you're actually serious, then you have fundamentally missed what little point this whole tangent had.
     
  6. Joe's Nemesis

    Joe's Nemesis High Score: 2,058 Prestige

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    You need to knock this crap off. It's the second post in a row of I've read of yours in a political thread with which I absolutely agree. That's not acceptable.
     
  7. Sesc

    Sesc Slytherin at Heart Moderator

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    Link.

    Pretty bitter, isn't it? Increasing the stimulus probably would have shortened the recession, and now everyone's spending like there's no tomorrow. I really do wonder whether Trump knows that there is no such thing as a Chapter 11 for entire economies. And for the rest of the GOP, when goddamn Rand Paul and the Freedom Caucus is fractionally less hypocritical than you are, you know you're really off the deep end. Running a full steam economy and a deficit and decreasing taxes and increasing spending. Sanity took a look and started crying softly.
     
  8. pbluekan

    pbluekan Auror DLP Supporter

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    Conservatives not being conservative is nothing new these days, sadly. The GOP is more religion and big business pandering than anything else at this point.

    In other news, Trump has blocked release of the Dems rebuttal memo. Surprise, surprise, and apparently based it on opinions of the FBI and Justice Department that it contained classified info, just like the GOP memo.

    time.com/5142729/donald-trump-democrat-memo-release/
    https://www.politico.com/story/2018/02/10/trump-democratic-memo-fbi-nunes-402092
     
  9. fire

    fire Auror

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    If it's any consolation, the tax cuts may well be counterproductive, politically - given how well the US economy is already doing, there's very little slack left, and the cuts won't increase growth by much (0.5% maybe). On the other hand, the single likeliest cause of a recession over this year is the Fed raising interest rates too high (or it being anticipated that the Fed raises interest rates too high), thereby precipitating a sell-off in the stock market and a crash in consumer and business confidence and spending. To the extent that the tax cuts overheat the economy and raise inflation, they make a Fed rate rise and the aforementioned events more likely, even if only slightly.

    Of course, once the dems get back in power in 2018/2020, up will go the cries of MUH DEFICIT again.
     
  10. Joe's Nemesis

    Joe's Nemesis High Score: 2,058 Prestige

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    Congress, probably. Executive office? Not likely. The US public is loathe to shift parties in the middle of a presidency unless that president followed another president of the same party.

    As for Republicans crying "deficit," of course you're going to get it. It's the war-cry of the minority party.
     
  11. pbluekan

    pbluekan Auror DLP Supporter

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    True enough, but even when they’re the minority the GOP doesn’t actually do anything about it besides filibuster in government shutdowns.

    In other news, the White House released a wish list of a budget proposal.

    The proposal, surprise surprise, increases defense spending (Pentagon budget up 13%) and allocates money for the “Rio Grande Watch” and the building of “The Wall.” This comes at the expense of various cuts to social programs (1.7 billion over a decade), cuts to the State Department (27%) and EPA (34%), and a doubling of the deficit. The doubling of the deficit would precipitate an addition of 7.1 trillion to the debt, assuming a best case scenario of a countinuously growing economy.

    The only thing it does well is infrastructure improvement and renovation, which is sorely needed. Sadly, it comes at the expense of agencies that are already underfunded and social programmes that a great deal of the country relies on.
     
  12. Darth_Revan

    Darth_Revan Secret Squirrel Prestige DLP Supporter

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    Except that it doesn't even do that, because the proposed cuts to discretionary spending on infrastructure are more than the proposed "new spending" on infrastructure, which isn't even new Federal spending at all, half the time, it's incentives for state and private spending.

    The whole thing is a ridiculous con job.

    Not that it matters, tbh, given that the WH's budget proposals are all just exercises in vanity.
    --- Post automerged ---
    Historically, it's about evenly divided between presidents who have served two terms, and presidents who have served one. It's true that in the modern era, presidents generally served up to the term limit, but having said that, everything about Trump is whacko bananas, so at this juncture, I wouldn't dare predict whether or not he'd be re-elected.

    But he also might not even survive a full term. So. Who the fuck knows.
     
  13. Solfege

    Solfege Order Member DLP Supporter

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    You would think so, and I'm only focusing on the greater economic effect here as Revan covered the financing issue, but this is shitty timing. Federal prioritization of infrastructure when the economy is running full steam just means this is going to divert from private sector projects. The Recession would've been a great time to do this for the short-term job creation; now all you're gonna do is increase competition on those rising wages in the tight labor markets.

    It's human nature to want to do as Sesc pointed out, (and I'm just marking in greater detail) pro-cyclical policy. Spend when times are good, austerity when it tanks. It's the amateur buying stocks as they rise and selling them (for a loss) as they fall. It's knee-jerk thinking (if there's thought at all behind it), and stupid. But anti-cyclical policy takes actual strategic discipline, which is too high a bar for squabbling ideologues facing a donor deadline to deliver on a minimum: pass something, anything, whatever the cost.

    Granted, the other powerful reason to do federal infrastructure is the long-term gains. With any luck, Trump/GOP fiscal incompetence as written into the bill will mitigate the short-term, as joint federal-state projects slowly drip in and only ramp up... when we hit the next minor recession? Not that state finances will be in any better shape to put up their side of the money then, usually they're worse off. The loans would be more favorable, though.


    SotU went over fairly well with the base. If Trump could keep it toned down as such, he'd be a strong Republican incumbent. Exercises in vanity are perfectly touted on-the-stump, and who better than Trump to sell the empty suit?

    I don't foresee Democrats going through with impeachment unless majorities assume this year, Mueller files a substantive conclusion, and even then the progressive base has to get riled up with the threat of primarying 2020. Leadership would rather take Trump on in what seems a safe(r) 2020 than delegitimize themselves and martyr him.

    In more normal times Republicans would come to the aisle, assuming Mueller has results, for a (slightly?) bipartisan effort, but with things as they are, and them covering Trump's ass at every turn, I worry a successful impeachment would more dangerously set a precedent for callously partisan impeachments.
     
    Last edited: Feb 13, 2018
  14. Chengar Qordath

    Chengar Qordath The Final Pony Prestige

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    Not to mention we have no idea who he'll be up against in 2020.
     
  15. Sesc

    Sesc Slytherin at Heart Moderator

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    Not even, though, is it?

    I mean. I'm all for lean governments and shrinking budgets to fit revenue. And I'm also all about tax cuts, if in good times you realise you have more than is strictly necessary. But what is flat out retarded is having an economy that's as good as it ever can be, while still having a budget deficit, and wanting to spend more on military and a border wall, and then cutting revenue. That's not Keynes or procyclical spending or any other theory, that's punching random buttons on a fake online economy simulator.


    Karma would be a 100% tax on every single voter who didn't not vote for Trump because of a wall Mexico would pay for ... to pay for it. Let's call it the Patriotic Border Wall Tax. That would allow you to figure out how much everyone really wants it, fast. And then I think I would also like Paul Ryan's Libertarian cuts-only fantasy budget balanced and implemented in real life (with cuts only).

    And when, after a couple of years, everyone has had time to consider merits and drawbacks, maybe we could have a sane debate about what government should do, and how many taxes consequently need to be paid.
     
  16. Darth_Revan

    Darth_Revan Secret Squirrel Prestige DLP Supporter

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    Bahahahahahahahahahahahaha.
     
  17. VanRopen

    VanRopen Unspeakable

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    Hey. Be fair. Oklahoma seems to be wising up, :V
     
  18. The Iron Rose

    The Iron Rose Headmaster

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    I think probably the most notable thing is in the Pentagon's budget: $550 million allocated to the SDF/YPG.

    That's the defense budget of a small nation... and it's increasingly looking like that's exactly what we're trying to build up and support, despite the mess that's Afrin Canton.

    In all honesty, I'm actually pretty pleased with the general idea if not necessarily the number. It's about time we actually stuck by and did right by the people who fought and died in our proxy wars.

    There's also that lovely report that came out about how the US blew up about a hundred Russian fighters in Syria after they launched an attack on Deir Ezzor. Which, gotta be honest, not really that upset about given the circumstances. The self-defense claim is a little rich, however.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...d-to-kill-scores-of-russian-fighters-in-syria

     
    Last edited: Feb 13, 2018
  19. Sesc

    Sesc Slytherin at Heart Moderator

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    You're risking Erdogan and the NATO, of course. Not that I'm too disenclined to see him put down -- he's currently cruising around south of Cyprus with warships, to prevent the Republic to drill for gas, as well as escalating the conflict with Greece over some shitty rocks in the Agean Sea or refusing German access to NATO forces stationed in Turkey, the list goes on and on -- so if you're happy to run a proxy (or direct, even, if Erdogan goes to Manbij) war against a (supposed) ally in Syria, so much the better. The problem is just that I doubt there has been much consideration done about the results of propping up the YPG and how to deal with those.

    Trump wouldn't know how to find Manbij on a map if you told him where it is, and he won't have heard about about the Osman/Turkish-Kurd history in his life. So you gotta hope he defers to people with more knowledge, but then again that is exactly what we have been hoping for a year now and the results are not pretty.

    And if Russia gets involved in this on top of everything, it has the potential to get ugly fast, more than just prying Erdogan out of the NATO.


    As an aside, I'm not sure if I feel Schadenfreude or sorry for sophisticated technology -- the tanks Erdogan uses, those shiny hightech vehicles we sold him, are getting blown up at terrible rates: the soldiers supposed to man them are part of the 2nd Turkish tank army, and that's the one involved in the coup. So Erdogan has competence sitting in prison cells, and rookies on the field -- the result is what you would expect.
     
  20. The Iron Rose

    The Iron Rose Headmaster

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    Yeah I've seen the dozen of twitter videos of Turkish tanks getting mercilessly pounded by ATGMs. It's a bit mordibly hilarious, if only because the Turkish army has shit tank doctrine (why yes I will parking my tank overexposed in a field without infantry support or air cover, that's a great idea!). The YPG/SDF is pretty practiced at tank hunting too - they've lots of experience hunting Daesh armored vehicles, especially so given how much ISIL loves VBIEDs.

    Is the TAF still flying F-16s with imprisoned, purged pilots?
     
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