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U.S. 2020 Elections

Discussion in 'Politics' started by TieHat, Jan 20, 2019.

  1. vlad

    vlad Banned Prestige

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    Oh well nevermind then. Swore I had read something about the French Revolution, Russian Revolution, and Chinese Communist Revolution and all three possibly having been catalyzed by massive social displacement and upheaval during periods of significant technological change, and a rapidly urbanizing population.

    Glad to know that wasn't the case.
     
  2. Arthellion

    Arthellion The Chosen One

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    Longsword="Let them eat cake"
     
  3. Agayek

    Agayek Fourth Champion DLP Supporter

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    Yes, yes there are. I've never said anything about not taking steps to alleviate what they're gonna have to deal with. What those steps are or should be, I don't know. I'm not sure UBI is the right thing simply because there's a lot of issues, social as well as economic, that would get in the way, and I don't see a good answer to them. But hey, if someone wants to give me a grand a month just for existing, I'm not gonna complain. All the more power to ya.

    My entire point is that all this kerfluffle is a tempest in a teacup. We've been through this exact process multiple times throughout human history and came out the other end far better off than previously.
     
  4. EsperJones

    EsperJones Headmaster

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    While that's true, I bet it wasn't fun for people living during that time. Which I think is Vlad's point.
     
  5. vlad

    vlad Banned Prestige

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    If by 'we' you mean the human race, then yes by the majority of metrics this is probably true.

    If by 'we' you mean Native American tribes, Greco-Anatolians, Khoisan bushmen, various middle-classes of the 18th through 20th century from Paris to Shanghai, the non-Han people of the Tarim basin, European peoples who once lived on the south Med coast, and countless others... then less so.

    Expecting people to rejoice in their own detriment or extinction for the overall improvement of global metrics is folly. They will (rightfully) resist, violently so, and there is no guarantee that the technology will win. In fact, given that the history of the world has Huns conquering Rome, Mongols conquering China, Arabs conquering Alexandria, Turks conquering Constantinople; my money would be that low tech, high pop > high tech, low pop when it comes to blows.
     
  6. Longsword

    Longsword Sixth Year

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    Happened after Russia had a famine, lost considerable pre-war territory, its army destroyed and its leadership discredited.
    Economic issues weren't crucial, war and politics were.
    Was by a political, financial upheaval. Explaining away what happened in France during late 18th century by simple economic means is too simplistic.
    France had weathered away the 7YW somehow, yet despite no dramatic change in French demographic and social composition, somehow the Bourbons were toppled in 1793.
    Economics certainly does not explain Napoleon Bonaparte.
    If somebody had asked an observer to bet on who would lead China by the end of 2nd Sino-Japanese War, he would not rate Mao's chances highly.
    Marie Antoinette never said that.
     
  7. Agayek

    Agayek Fourth Champion DLP Supporter

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    I never said it was?

    Is the deficiency here in my fingers or your collective eyes, because the only thing I've said is that it's going to suck for the folks who are out of work, but once the dust eventually settles, everyone, including those who lost their employment, will be much better off. I've said, multiple times now, that it's going to be painful in the interim, so why are all of you claiming that I said the opposite?
     
  8. Arthellion

    Arthellion The Chosen One

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    It sound like you're saying "yeah it's going to suck, but don't worry guys it's going to get better."

    The problem is you don't have proof that it will get better and it seems like you are just saying we should just embrace the inevitable like it doesn't matter because of some better future.
     
  9. Agayek

    Agayek Fourth Champion DLP Supporter

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    I mean, we should embrace it because it's literally the next step forward in human history, and the historical record has plenty of evidence that trying to run from such things just makes it more painful when it inevitably catches back up.

    But that has no bearing on trying to help the people adversely effected by it.
     
  10. vlad

    vlad Banned Prestige

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    Don't forget the bread riots!

    From 1600 to 1650 the population of Paris doubled; then it gained another 50% up to the beginning of the revolution. This despite almost 0 national growth from 1600 to 1725, and significantly more modest growth than 50% over the next 65 years.

    Nantes and Bordeaux experienced rapid growth due to trans-Atlantic shipping which led to a relatively large and prosperous merchant class, and this played out in the massacres in Bordeaux at Place Gambetta and in Nantes in the Guerre de Vendée.

    This is what I call 'dramatic change in French demographic and social composition'.

    And they would have lost the bet.


    Edit: I certainly wouldn't declare that Napoleon can be easily explained by economics.

    That said, if I wanted to raise a large army of conscripts, my task would be sufficiently easier if there were masses of unemployed young men with no real alternative prospects, and were for the most part already present in my urban centers of mobilization.
     
    Last edited: Mar 10, 2019
  11. EsperJones

    EsperJones Headmaster

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    Everything you've said is accurate, but is not really the reason for the arguments. The question is how do we avoid the mass pain in the meantime while the inevitable automation comes along. Your comments feel like you're downplaying the issues we face today, because on the scale of history a single generation or two don't matter.

    However, to the people living today it is the only thing that matters, and the fact that (assuming the Earth doesn't burn up in a blaze of hubris) humanity may be better off afterwards is not a useful message.

    [Edit: Oh, and to address the inevitable follow-up - yes, there are some people who feel like we should hold back progress in the interests of mitigating the impact. I am not one of those people, and if that's what you're arguing against, speaking in terms of history rather than short/medium- term alternatives is a losing proposition.]
     
  12. Agayek

    Agayek Fourth Champion DLP Supporter

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    Really, what I'm arguing against is the notion that technological progress is a bad thing because it has short-term negatives, despite the fact that the long-term positives outweigh those negatives by orders of magnitude.

    There's most definitely cause for concern regarding aforementioned negatives, and we should do all that we can to mitigate them, but literally everyone, including the folks suffering the worst of the negative effects, will be left better off because of the positives. We've seen it play out time and time again throughout history. It will be painful, but the pain will pass, and when it does, we'll all be much better off.

    As for alernatives, there really aren't any. Realistically, it's embrace it now, or try to prolong the status quo as long as possible before you're inevitably forced to embrace it anyway. And it's always less painful to embrace it quickly and start adapting to the new paradigm as quickly as possible, thereby minimizing the amount of pain points.

    Which isn't to say that everyone about to lose their job should go ignored; this kind of thing is literally why social welfare programs exist, and they absolutely need to be prepared to handle the sudden influx of folks forced to rely on it. I'm far from qualified enough to comment on what shape those preparations should be though; maybe it's UBI, maybe it's retraining programs, or some other thing I'm not aware of.
     
    Last edited: Mar 10, 2019
  13. Darth_Revan

    Darth_Revan Secret Squirrel Prestige DLP Supporter

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    Imposing another redistributive, regressive consumption tax doesn't seem very palatable.
     
  14. Stenstyren

    Stenstyren Professor

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    Really, I think we're coming at this from the wrong angle.

    Having employment is not some natural phenomena, it's largely a product of agricultural society. Automation could help us create much, much more per worked hour and we can thus afford to keep less of the population in employment.

    UBI is a pretty good way to tell people: Here's money to cover the basics. If you want more, then you have to work for it. The levels of entrepreneurship would most likely skyrocket, perhaps in artisinal crafts etc. but probably also in sectors where human contact is necessary (pubs, bed-and-breakfasts).

    Not wanting to go full communist here, but a large part of the reason we have democracy and liberty today is the value of the worker. If we go back to not being valuable to the market, will we then be able to preserve "our rights"?
    Could we create a framework where we share in the products these automations create? Perhaps common ownership of the patents could pay for some sort of UBI?

    This is obviously not something I advocate for implementing tomorrow, but we need to have thought about these issues before a small subset of Silicon Valley firms own the ability to control the entire means of production.
     
  15. Longsword

    Longsword Sixth Year

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    The bread riots happened only once Russia's transport networked was smashed under rigours of war. Still doesn't explain the Bolsheviks.
    Reread my comment. From 7YW ( ended in 1763 ) to 1789, there were no dramatic changes.
    Discussion about the heightened importance of Paris after the Fronde are fine, but all the factors you mentioned were present during the reigns of Louis XIV and Louis XV too.
    But they would not have been wrong to bet against him. Your explanations for all the mentioned politcal events are full of far too much determinism. In the Chinese example, for instance, socio-economic trends could partially explain the crisis in early 20th century China, but not why the communists, and not the nationalists came to power.
     
  16. Invictus

    Invictus Banned

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    One of the he most interesting things about this election cycle is how quickly the intransigent and nearly impossible behaviour standards the Democrats set up for themselves to contrast with the Republicans (and criticise the GOP for not reaching it) fell apart when faced with political realities. No one deserves this more than Gillibrand, who doesn't even have the excuse of being a true believer.

    A mid-20s female aide to Kirsten Gillibrand resigned in protest over the handling of her sexual harassment complaint by Gillibrand‘s office, and criticized the senator for failing to abide by her own public standards.
     
  17. vlad

    vlad Banned Prestige

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    I agree. But unfortunately the GOP will content itself with telling its own base the old standby Dems R Hypocrites and tutting from the sidelines. Maybe we'll get a Shapiro tweet WRECKING LIBS WITH FACTS and a couple of jokes that Juan Williams will have to parley and boomers will send them out in cringe chain mails for a week.

    Accomplishing nothing. They will never go so far as to choke the left on its own rulebook. Especially when it might risk creating actual sane policy regarding college and corporate standards of behavior and legal procedure.
     
  18. Arthellion

    Arthellion The Chosen One

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    To put things in perspective, recently attended a ethics debate between universities. One of the topics was, “should there be an explicit standard of sexual ethics defined and explained?”

    The team that won ‘s position was “no, anyone should just be able to feel or tell when that line is being crossed. It does not need to be explicitly defined.”

    In the judges defense the opposing team did a shoddy job arguing against them. But still. That’s where college ethics debate teams are at. It’s ridiculous
     
  19. Oment

    Oment The Betrayer

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    Gio's lobbying continues unabated.

     
  20. Invictus

    Invictus Banned

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    Sanity and concrete measures means they can't bitch and moan about it too much, and more importantly, means they will have to offer something concrete. As they learned from the Obamacare fiasco, GOP would much rather let things implode than do anything that would entail a actual commitment and risk.
     
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