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U.S. 2020 Elections

Discussion in 'Politics' started by momo, Jan 20, 2019.

  1. Agayek

    Agayek Prisoner DLP Supporter

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    No, he meant the Declaration of Independence, presumably he's specifically talking about the line "We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.".
     
  2. vlad

    vlad Auror Prestige

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    Fair.

    But he would still be wrong, as for one the Declaration did not establish the United States, but rather a document declaring the colonies are not England; they do not provide a common positive. Nor are the truths held to be self-evident (not even to the Founders), nor is there any restriction on atheists becoming citizens, or atheists having their citizenship revoked, or any burden to accept the universal much less unalienable characteristics of said rights.

    The Declaration is good wartime propaganda to be sure, but that's about it. For one - if something truly was self evident it wouldn't hurt to give a few examples of it, especially when was was declaring that equality was self-evident to everybody in opposition to a monarchy.

    The divided opinions on abortion, capital punishment, conscription, revocation of some or all rights from felons, the legal protections offered to non-citizens, the right to absolute self-defense, the limitations of taxation, and one's general obligation to provide for public welfare... would show a variety of opinion on all three of the supposedly self-evident rights.
     
  3. Arthellion

    Arthellion Supreme Mugwump

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    I think the way to bypass a lot of those hotkey issues (not all) is for people to agree to disagree and let the states decide on those issues.

    So I can have very different values than people in California do, but I can respect their values and they can respect mine. We agree to disagree and both hold to the ideal that we are Americans, that we are stronger together than apart, and the basic framework of the republic. We hold to pride in the good things the USA has accomplished, recognize the bad, but always strive to better.

    I know this is vague and the implementation/detailed are not developed, but I believe the general idea is sound.
     
  4. Longsword

    Longsword Fourth Year

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    Not so clear at all. Extrapolating the future of AI three decades into the future is a fool's errand.
    Looking three decades back at the history of AI, how accurate were people at predicting today's technology ?
    The burden of proof should lie on those who are claiming that AI will be of near human capability soon enough.
    The recent past does not support their claims.
     
  5. Stenstyren

    Stenstyren Professor

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    Well, if the technology we currently possess were adapted into more areas we would already see a great many jobs being cut. I'm a lawstudent myself, and we are seeing a great reduction in the amount of work that was traditionally done by paralegals and new graduates. This is simply due to effective databases and AI-generated standard documents. Of course, arguing in court will not be automated any time soon, but very few lawyers actually have anything to do with courts.

    I've also been working with accounting and the technology we see being implemented there is just insane. The new systems automatically scan your bankaccounts, AI figures out what has happened and automatically does the accounting for you. What used to be the work of a whole group of administrators (and was a pretty good stepping stone to go from the shop-floor to leadership) is now mostly the job of one person, that simply checks that the AI is not misbehaving.

    This is a wierd stance to take. It's basically like saying that we shouldn't do anything about climate change since we are not absolutely certain that it will happen.
    Automation and AI will change the way the human race live our lives, sooner or later. It could be in 30, 50 or 500 years. Not thinking and planing ahead for what's likely to come seems foolish.

    EDIT:
    Are we arguing about the future of automation in like 3 separate thread simultaneously now btw? Perhaps a new thread for the issue is due?
     
  6. Longsword

    Longsword Fourth Year

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    That has been true for every single innovation in the history of mankind.
    The theoretical basis underpinning climate change is different.
    Atmospheric models based on more than mere conjecture have existed for quite sometime. Change in patterns of ocean currents and winds can be verified and quantified, and even then just how drastic measures must be taken is a bag full of controversies.

    People making predictions about AI cannot explain why estimated unemployment has not popped up in labour statistics, nor can they show just which characteristics AI would have developed when it would be just at the cusp of attaining near human intelligence.
     
    Last edited: Mar 17, 2019 at 4:33 AM
  7. Amekonnen

    Amekonnen Squib

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    I disagree that the DOI was only a piece of wartime propaganda. It was a response to Britain's actions and the justification for breaking from the Empire. It is the basis for the constitution and our laws at least in concept IMO. Americans only really began having a national identity in the 1800 around these ideas(all men created equal, 3 intrinsic rights).
    TLDR: America's identity only really developed in the 1800s but the seeds were sown through the DOI and by extension the Constitution.
    --- Post automerged ---
    Also to that last part, all those disagreements are just arguments on how to fulfill those instrinsic rights. I think you would be very hard pressed to find an American who disagrees with the intrinsic rights just how to apply them in the real world.
    --- Post automerged ---
    It's more like we can see a future where AI will probably put humans out of work in such large numbers that betting on it not sound so while doing nothing seems like a recipe for disaster.
     
  8. Koalas

    Koalas First Year Prestige DLP Supporter

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    I don't know who've been talking to but this is fairly understood in my circles.

    1. Companies, specifically management, are pretty crap at implementing new technologies. Send someone who knows how to make and troubleshoot a good excel macro and send them into the average office. Watch them marvel at the wizard.

    2. When implemented work days/ work loads haven't adjusted. See the office worker that does an average 3 hours work. People are paid to be there for their 9-5. Then there's the sentimental part of it. Could they fire the office worker that's been here 20 years and throw the workload onto the new employee? Sure. But the average company doesn't want to.

    3. There's a bit of a Mexican stand off. There's a bunch of companies that could implement but no one wants to take the flak for starting the Blue Collar Purge. But it'll be a domino effect, once the trail is blazed you'll have to adapt to keep up.
     
  9. Invictus

    Invictus Half-Blood Prince

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    Banks are already doing it en masse as are investment funds and similar. Fast Food chains and Walmarts are already testing it out. The Purge is ongoing.
     
  10. Chengar Qordath

    Chengar Qordath The Final Pony Prestige

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    Plenty of other businesses are experimenting with increasing automation or self-service so they need fewer employees. The tech and infrastructure to support it isn't there yet, but companies very much love the idea of cutting operating costs like employee salaries. If you can replace 10 employees with one AI programmer, the money the company just saved is pure profit.
     
  11. Solfege

    Solfege Headmaster DLP Supporter

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    Know who else was in the Cult of Dead Cows? Mencius Goldbug.
    Who needs policy when you've got stories like this:
    Screenshot 2019-03-17 03.32.41.png
     
  12. Oment

    Oment The Betrayer

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    Speaking of, he's apparently hit enough individual donations to make it to the debate rounds. (Though, if Wiki is to be believed, he's not officially launched his campaign yet, being in the exploratory stage still.)

    It does make me wonder if there are (going to be) additional restrictions on the debates, because the GOP debates were already chaotic as hell with 10, let alone however many of the Dems qualify.
     
  13. Invictus

    Invictus Half-Blood Prince

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    They will likely reach 15, I think. I don't like a lot of Buttigieg positions (looking at you court packing) but you can't deny the man has a genuine charisma and ability to be likeable in a everyman way that just makes you like him. He would be a good option for more abrasive presidents I feel, as a VP. Booker wouldn't need him, but Warren or Sanders wouldn't do bad with him.

    Stuff like this is interesting:
    Like I said, charming guy.
     
  14. Arthellion

    Arthellion Supreme Mugwump

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    Real Slytherins go to Hufflepuff
     
  15. Nazgus

    Nazgus Minister of Magic

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    As a proud Hufflepuff, I resent your implication. :p
     
  16. Invictus

    Invictus Half-Blood Prince

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    Sanders just hired David Sirota, a The Guardian columnist as a speechwriter and senior adviser. This is notable for two reasons: (I)
    Sirota is infamous for being Sander's Twitter attack dog, savaging his opponents and mainly focusing on Democrats and Democratic Party oepratives - he's a big figure on the "DNC STOLE SANDERS NOMINATION" thing, and is basically a poster child for a more sophisticated stereotype of the infamous BernieBro; (II) he did all of that in the last few months while he was an unofficial (read: secret but paid) operative of Sanders campaign time (same positions he officially filled out now), something he never disclosed while raining down critics on Sanders adversaries - which he passed of as merely a journalist doing his job. When his hiring was announced, he deleted 20,000 Tweets from his account, leaving only 200 online.

    Despite Sanders claims in an email launched shortly before he gave his speeches launching his 2020 bid that his supporters and campaign should “do our very best to engage respectfully with our Democratic opponents―talking about the issues we are fighting for, not about personalities or past grievances. I want to be clear that I condemn bullying and harassment of any kind and in any space.” This guy's hiring plus Sanders 2016 campaign shows that we will have a very aggressive campaign.
     
    Last edited: Mar 20, 2019 at 12:14 PM
  17. ScottPress

    ScottPress The Horny Sovereign Prestige

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    Just the media doing what it does.
     
  18. vlad

    vlad Auror Prestige

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    Elizabeth Warren comes out in support of reparations, marvelling me once more that a sitting Senator could have such a skewed political antenna. Not quite as retarded as thinking 1/1024 was going to be a rhetorical killshot, but a fair second.

    But if she wants to lose even in Massachusetts, then by all means.
     
  19. Arthellion

    Arthellion Supreme Mugwump

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    This election on the democrat side has me concerned. There are so many candidates coming out, but they seem to be having to cater to the left most voters if they want to win. I'm worried that we will see happen to this democratic field what happened to the republicans past election.

    The "good" candidates tore themselves apart which lead to Trump being able to carve out his niche. I don't think anyone would disagree that practically any of the other candidates for the republicans would be a better choice than Trump.

    I'm worried we might see something similar happen to democrats.
     
  20. Invictus

    Invictus Half-Blood Prince

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    The only reason Trump won was because all the "good" candidates were fucking terrible. Christie, Jeb and Jindal and all others except Cruz and Rubio flubbed it so hard right from the get go, with endless scandals dragging a lot of them down. Rubio showed a remarkable ability at repeating himself in every fucking debate which killed him next. Then it was Cruz and Trump, and since Cruz built his career on being a shitty asshole who lied and manipulated facts for cheap angry populism, he got completely outplayed by Trump who was much better at it and actually had some slimy snake oil salesman charm, unlike "Most Hated Man Cruz".

    If Democrats that are mainstream can't succeed is because they're both terrible at making a case for themselves and fail at the populist wave they themselves created. Don't be mistaken, just like everyone in 2016 on the GOP side was gladly skiing on the populist angery they stoke for 8 years, do are Democrats now. It won't be anyone's fault but themselves and their political abilities. No "good candidates took themselves out".
     
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