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U.S. 2020 Elections

Discussion in 'Politics' started by Conquistador, Jan 20, 2019.

  1. amek

    amek Fourth Year

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    Interesting video I thought it should be brought up. I don't know if it counts under here or under The Trump thread, so just tell me and I'll move it.
     
  2. A Lightning

    A Lightning Seventh Year

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    Does this exist in written form anywhere? Or at least a written list of sources for the claims made in the video? I did watch the whole thing, but it moves pretty fast and it's so much easier to think clearly about arguments in written form. I know it's the NY Times, but still.

    The link in the video description has a typo, which threw me off, so here's the real NY Times link if anyone wants to see it: http://www.nytimes.com/disinformation.
     
  3. Distended Destiny

    Distended Destiny Fifth Year

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    There's a series by Smarter Every Day which also talks on the same topic, but with regard to current online media. He talks to people from the companies, an analyst, and so on.









    I didn't see any of that youtube manipulation he talked about until recently.
     
  4. ScottPress

    ScottPress The Horny Sovereign ~ Prestige ~

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    Jamie pull that up



    I'm gonna listen to this
     
  5. Oment

    Oment The Betrayer

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  6. Sesc

    Sesc Slytherin at Heart Moderator

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    So this happened. I'd say the world making less and less sense has by now reached all the order of an ocd hoarder in a junkyard, but that's probably only if you're from yesterday and remember the old times. In this new world, Warren can present something, and Tucker Carlson can agree it makes sense.

    What I can't seem to decide is whether this helps her, or hinders her.
     
  7. Arthellion

    Arthellion Lord of the Banned ~ Prestige ~

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    Warren/Carlson 2020?
     
  8. pbluekan

    pbluekan Headmaster DLP Supporter

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    Im inclined to say it helps. I’m no fan of Carlson, but simply having favorable commentary from someone on the “other side” brings independent and centrist leaning conservatives to her banner.

    The fact is, her plan is well reasoned and most importantly, viable. When the Dems are putting out nonsensical shit like the Green New Deal, having one of them put out something so reasonable it even looks good to conservatives does a lot to sweep the dumb shit back into the closet.
     
  9. Agayek

    Agayek Half-Blood Prince DLP Supporter

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    This is my stance on it. I'm quite happy it happened and I really hope it ends up working out for her.

    That said, I'm expecting that within a week, we'll be hearing about how Warren is a conservative bat and a deadly and avowed enemy of every non-white non-male in existence
     
  10. pbluekan

    pbluekan Headmaster DLP Supporter

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    I think you mean the enemy of every non-cis-gendered-neurotypical-caucasian male.

    /s
     
  11. Oment

    Oment The Betrayer

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    Crossposting because it is probably offtopic in the other thread...

    Carlson has been setting himself up as a man of the people, a 'true populist', for a while now. (Which is, if memory serves, a bit of a disconnect from earlier in his life, but eh.) He's also agreed in similar scope with a Sanders/AOC plan for basically the same reasons: it protects the American people, leaving aside the question of who actually belongs in that category, and on which he fervently disagrees. And judging by what I've read (watching Carlson is a good way to poison my day, and it's the am here), he did indeed mention that Warren's social axis is not one he can agree with. (To summarise it.)
    Neutral (if anything) in the primary, irrelevant in the general. Carlson is unlikely to register as anyone really worth listening to amongst Dem Primary voters, and the maybe miniscule boost to perceived electability is likely to be cancelled out by an even more miniscule set of people who do end up going 'bleh Carlson'. I'd doubt either of these effects would exceed 0.1 % worth of movement in polls - and I don't think it did anything for Sanders in the first place. (Though, admittedly, Sanders was coming down from his announcement bump at the time.) Warren herself seems unlikely to tout this hard at any point soon given her 'hate-for-profit' stance, and by the time she would be able to make hay out of this for a cross-party appeal, we're literally a year from now. And a year is a long time in politics.
     
    Last edited: Jun 7, 2019
  12. Sesc

    Sesc Slytherin at Heart Moderator

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    Edit: Moved from the Trumperium.

    I mean ... the position from which this plan derives is clear, right? It's economic populism. Just because it's coming from the left, doesn't mean it gets a free pass. The difference to Trump is that he tells you your woes are due to Mexican immigrants from Syria, while Warren tells you they're due to greedy companies robbing you blind. I suppose that is better, because the baseline is somewhere in the Mariana Trench, but simplistic answers remain simplistic answers.

    Her ideas here are just to throw dollars at everything. That sometimes works, and sometimes doesn't, but she doesn't seem to care either way, because the point is the principle of government interventions as a self-purpose. Managing the value of the dollar, for instance, is just a shit idea and not going to happen. And instead of creating a new government agency, how about making sure that the ones that do exist function properly? Investing in research is generally accepted to give you a lot of bang for the buck. Investing in an agency to channel the ghost of Trotsky, not so much.

    So, have a huge meh. Entirely possible that she can convince Trump voters with it, but then, they are still waiting for the promised manufacturing jobs from the last election, aren't they?
     
  13. DR

    DR Secret Squirrel ~ Prestige ~ DLP Supporter

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    This statement, from an article in Politico about Iowa polling says it all:

     
  14. Oment

    Oment The Betrayer

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    Here's to hoping some of them drop out after the first debates so people can actually remember all of the participants without a note to cheat off of.
     
  15. Arthellion

    Arthellion Lord of the Banned ~ Prestige ~

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    Top 3 who survive will be Biden, Bernie, and either Warren/Harris.
     
  16. Oment

    Oment The Betrayer

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    So, after all that, luck and a bit of an interesting way of drawing has still given us a very much lopsided set of debates.

    Of the six that poll around or above 5 %, two ended up on the first night (Warren, O'Rourke). Biden alone has more support (as per 538's averages) than the entire first debate.

    Bullock and Moulton didn't qualify, amongst others. Let's hope they take it as a sign.
     
  17. Conquistador

    Conquistador Professor

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    tl;dr

    First debate = entire irrelevant. (Warren and O'Rourke have polls, but Trump will slaughter them in the general election).

    Glad to know that I won't miss anything if I take the lazy option and watch only one night.
     
  18. Howdy

    Howdy Dark Lord

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    How banal and ignorant.

    As if voters give a rat's ass this year about the insults Trump will throw around. The electorate has ossified in a way we've never seen before. This election will depend on whether or not the Democrats can inspire the base and new voters, not what Trump does.

    If there's a Trump voter who hasn't already entrenched their position, I would like to see them.
     
  19. Arthellion

    Arthellion Lord of the Banned ~ Prestige ~

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    Eh...This argument has been had before, but I'd argue that just as important as inspiring the base and new voters, it's important to put forward a candidate that won't inspire people to vote for Trump.

    Most people I know who voted for Trump did so because they considered Hillary the absolutely worst possible option and fundamentally evil. They recognized Trump was morally corrupt, but he was the "lesser of two evils."

    I still fundamentally disagree with their approach, but that is their mindset. If the democrats can put forward someone who can galvanize the democrat base -without- galvanizing the Republican base, they can win.

    because remember, it's not about winning new voters. It's about winning the votes in the strategic places.
     
  20. Howdy

    Howdy Dark Lord

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    This may have been true when there was a fraction of people who thought that Trump might not be mentally deficient or morally ambiguous, but that curtain has been drawn. The people I know who voted for him (family, sadly) did so not because of the man but because of the courts. If you choose to vote for Trump this time you are simply a deranged human being. That's why most polls show him losing badly.

    And to respond, people with brains will understand that he's a lying narcissistic sociopath (clinically).
     
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