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US Elections: Downticket Edition

Discussion in 'Politics' started by DR, Sep 23, 2016.

  1. DR

    DR Secret Squirrel ~ Prestige ~ DLP Supporter

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    Paramount to whomever wins the US Presidential election will be which of the parties controls the House and Senate. This year, it's been argued by many that the Dems have a shot at retaking the majority in the Senate, but not the House, barring a pro-Dem blowout that the polling at the Presidential level doesn't look to be forecasting.

    I think a lot of these races are more interesting than the dynamics at the national level, so I wanted to create a space separate from the US Elections 2016 thread, which is geared more toward the Presidential race, to ask a series of questions:

    1. What down-ballot races are you watching, if you are, and why?
    2. Do you live in a competitive Senate state? Or a competitive House district? Who do you think will win?
    3. Do your Senate and House candidates look to be sinking or swimming according to the how your locality is leaning in the Presidential race? Or is it independent of that?


    I don't live in a competitive state for Senate, or district for the House. But there is one Senate race that I'm watching with great interest: Missouri, where incumbent Senator Blunt is being challenged by the Democratic Missouri Sec. of State, Jason Kander.

    Kander recently put out a very well-made ad on the subject of being simultaneously pro-gun control, and pro-Second Amendment rights. Here's a link, it's worth watching. Many political folks think it's actually changing the race in Missouri by highlighting Kander to out-of-state donors, and by challenging one of Sen. Blunt's attacks head on--and maybe winning.

    All in all, Missouri is turning into a VERY interesting battleground.
     
    Last edited: Sep 24, 2016
  2. Giovanni

    Giovanni God of Scotch

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    1.) Florida, New Hampshire, and Ohio. If it's a wave year Democrats win all three. If it's a normal year three for the loss column.

    2.) Yes. Johnson will lose to Feingold for Senate. House is not competitive in the slightest, thanks Republican gerrymanderers!

    3.) Senate race is not linked to the Presidential. Johnson was losing by about this margin consistently long before Trump was the nominee, and Feingold's base in Madison is made up of Jill Stein dead-enders.
     
  3. Shouldabeenadog

    Shouldabeenadog Auror

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    So i'm following the california senate race.

    Its Harris vs. Sanchez, but both of them are in the same party, because of California's top two system.
    I'm curious to see if Sanchez can succesfuly mobilize the republicans to her side. With their support she could win, but without it she looks like she will be trounced.
     
  4. Dryden

    Dryden First Year

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    Gio, you're nuts. I don't think Strickland would win even in a 2010-like massacre. He's currently -10 or more in all but one poll I've seen this month.
     
    Last edited: Sep 27, 2016
  5. Giovanni

    Giovanni God of Scotch

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    He's the ultimate wave case. Swing state and down by a bunch. 2006/08/10/14 are littered with incumbents who were up by that much in public or internal polling until the bitter end.

    But yeah, no other circumstances for Ohio I'm afraid.
     
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