1. Hey Guest, welcome back to DLP

    As you can see, we've changed our look. We've migrated from vBulletin to the Xenforo forum system. There may be issues or missing functionality, if you find anything or have feedback, please check out the new Xenforo Migration Feedback forum.

    Our dark ("Dark Lord Potter") theme is under heavy development. We also have a light ("Light Lord Potter") theme for those happier with a light background and darker text.

    Dismiss Notice
Dismiss Notice
Hey Guest! Are you any good at cooking? Got a favourite recipe that you love to cook or bring out to impress that special someone? Why not share it! A new forum called The Burrow has opened and it's all about homemaking!

USA Elections 2016

Discussion in 'Politics' started by Banta, Apr 12, 2015.

Not open for further replies.
  1. Krogan

    Krogan Alien in a Hat Prestige DLP Supporter

    Joined:
    Dec 8, 2007
    Messages:
    130
    Location:
    Texas
    High Score:
    2,719
    I'm not arguing with you, its just something that Id been hearing a lot lately and I was wondering what if any validity there was to it. I trust you guys for political news more than I do most.
     
  2. Darth_Revan

    Darth_Revan Secret Squirrel Prestige DLP Supporter

    Joined:
    Mar 13, 2006
    Messages:
    86
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    The Empire City
    High Score:
    2810
    I don't blame you; in this environment, it's hard to know what's real, let alone what to believe.

    The Trump campaign has been doing its best to spin it in such a way as to cloud things further. Their line is basically "it doesn't matter what's real, only what our voters believe." Which is fairly shrewd, if nakedly cynical.

    We live in a post-fact culture.
     
  3. Invictus

    Invictus Heir

    Joined:
    Mar 21, 2013
    Messages:
    2,611
    Location:
    Cidade Maravilhosa
    Not really. You're going through a "the feel/appearences/superficial is what matters". Poor people, specially white, are tired of hearing how things are getting better, economy is growing, trade is increasing and not feeling anything. They see other groups growing and getting ahead and feel stagnated. They don't care about facts because facts most of the time don't apply to them. So they're just holding onto hope that outsiders, ones who aren't part of the system that they feel excluded from will make things better. It's faith, not trust they have.

    Reality didn't come crashing down for them like it's coming here in Latin America. Sooner or later they will get what they want, and it will be a bitter pill, do everyone involved, but, as always, the bitterest will be to the most vulnerable.
     
  4. Aurion

    Aurion Headmaster

    Joined:
    Jun 11, 2008
    Messages:
    1,176
    Location:
    North Carolina
    Go back, read what you said again, realize it was utterly retarded, and move on.

    To what degree they can and should be tolerated is a matter of solely personal opinion.

    Hm.

    Backpedal faster, bitch. You are actively refusing to acknowledge a fundamental facet of our political reality. Because you don't like it. And there is no "almost" here. News sources are not impartial, and those that try to be so (see: CNN) end up as a running joke for their obsession for covering every side of an issue in case one happens to be right, to paraphrase Obama.

    --

    As the risk of getting a little meta:

    You can argue that the obsession with impartiality in some corners is just as retarded as the spin that comes from HuffPo and Breit- after all, the Golden Mean Fallacy is, well, a fallacy. Just because one side says white and another says black does not make a grey interpretation correct.

    Taking a point of view diametrically opposed to factual evidence does not change what is "correct". This shows up rather prominently in the debate about climate change, for a notable example.

    ---

    In all seriousness though.

    Did you, yknow, miss the 1990s? The 2000s? Whitewater? Lewinsky? Iraq? SBV? Anything pertaining to President Obama, but particularly his place of birth and religious affiliation? Wingnuttery is not new.

    Conspiracy theorizing is not new to our politics- not new to the mainstream, never fucking mind the actual crazies- especially not about the Clintons. It's not the first, fifth, or twentieth time election coverage this close to the point of decision has been at a fever pitch, either.

    So you're doing one of two things- either the very charitable interpretation I posted- you just aren't paying enough attention-, or... well, or you're simply talking about something you don't know jack about so you can jerk it to how superior you feel to the plebs.

    e: If you think that's unfair, well, you aren't the first, fiftieth, or ten thousandth person to post some shit about how they're fed up with media bias. It's not a unique thought, and definitely not a unique chain of reasoning. Happens like clockwork, and you're falling pretty neatly into the pattern.
     
    Last edited: Nov 7, 2016
  5. Eilyfe

    Eilyfe Death Eater

    Joined:
    May 27, 2014
    Messages:
    957
    Erm, someone had a bad day it seems?

    Anyway, countdown is going tick-a-tock. Yesterday I made my usual presidential Trump jokery and my flatmate blankly told me that he's very nervous about this election - which upon further reflection is true for me as well.

    So, we're tense and on another continent. I can't quite fathom how DLP:America must feel right now.

    I'd appreciate it if the political savy among you could give me their final estimate. How likely is President Trump in these last hours?
     
  6. World

    World Oberstgruppenführer Moderator DLP Supporter

    Joined:
    Apr 19, 2006
    Messages:
    3,176
    Location:
    Axis of Evil (Original)
    Well, we all know that reality has a liberal bias, so just reporting reality would be biased :sherlock:

    Me too, buddy. 538 says it's a 33% chance for Trump, which I think is way too much for comfort. I'm still hoping for a Clinton landslide, just to discourage populism.
     
  7. fire

    fire High Inquisitor

    Joined:
    Dec 25, 2011
    Messages:
    517
    Re: polls and their accuracy.

    There is reason to believe that the post-Comey tightening of the polls overstates the degree to which Clinton will lose actual votes.

    (1) Partisan fatigue. What this means is that when bad stuff happens to your party, you're less likely to respond to polling requests (think about what happens when your sports team loses a game; if they win, you'll happily talking about it with friends or on a supporter's forum; if they lose, you just want to pretend it doesn't exist). So the tightening of the polls reflects (A) less Clinton supporters responding, and not just (B) people withdrawing their support.

    (2) GOTV effects. Traditionally, polls don't need to take into account GOTV effects because they assume both parties are competent and equally good at GOTVing. But with the Trump campaign's incompetence in this regard, and them going up against the well-oiled Obama/DNC turnout machine (especially in Reid's Nevada), there is going to be a measurable difference. Even last time in 2012, Obama's team estimated that their concerted GOTV efforts would give them a 1-2% advantage beyond what the tight polls suggested, and as it turned out, they were right - which was how Romney got blown out of the water in the Electoral College, while the polls indicated nothing of the sort. In short, the polls might be tight now, but since the dems are better at actually getting their voters to the polls, actual voting was will probably favour Hillary.

    This is my understanding at least, but I would welcome any clarification or corrections from others with a deeper knowledge of such stuff.

    EDIT: In response to World @Eilyfe

    For the above reasons, 538 is probably not very reliable atm - it overweighs these (inaccurate) new polls relative to the older ones which consistently show a Clinton advantage. All other models (Sam Wang at PEC, Rothschild at PredictWise, etc etc) all show Clinton with ~90% chance of winning.
     
    Last edited: Nov 7, 2016
  8. Perspicacity

    Perspicacity High Score: 3,994 Prestige DLP Supporter

    Joined:
    Nov 27, 2007
    Messages:
    577
    Location:
    Elsewhere
    High Score:
    3,994
    For what it's worth, here's the 538 counterpoint to those models (posted in response to this article, which apparently got sand in Silver's nether regions).

    I'm not sure what to make of the stark contradictions among different meta-polling models, but I do know that Dem and Latino early voting turnout in some key swing states such as Nevada and Florida has been very strong and seems at odds with some of the historically based adjustments Silver makes to poll outcomes in his models. It's unclear that these adjustments, some of the very ones that led him to under-represent Trump's chances in the primaries, are appropriate in such a non-standard, unprecedented election.

    Early voting in general blunts the effects of any Comey 11th-hour "revelation" and also tends to make people ignore polls. Myself, I've ignored more than twenty telephone calls from pollsters in the last week alone. While I acknowledge I've a civic obligation to vote, I've no such obligation to have my weekends or evenings interrupted continually to provide for free opposition research for this candidate or the other, or to support news agencies' reporting on fabricated stories as opposed to real issues dividing candidates.
     
  9. World

    World Oberstgruppenführer Moderator DLP Supporter

    Joined:
    Apr 19, 2006
    Messages:
    3,176
    Location:
    Axis of Evil (Original)
    That's basically what I'm hoping for. Maybe I'm just seeing the worst forecast and panicking as a result.

    After reading the HuffPo vs 538 articles, I guess I fall somewhere in the middle. On the one hand, the high number of uncertain voters makes a 99% prediction pretty risky, on the other hand, adjusting the polls and then saying a 3 point polling error is possible sounds wrong. Also, 538 themselves had an article on how most voters haven't changed their minds at any point.

    The early voting looks good, so I guess there's reasons enough to relax, for now.
     
  10. Oment

    Oment The Betrayer

    Joined:
    Apr 11, 2011
    Messages:
    1,534
    Never underestimate the propensity of people to do stupid things. If I were on Clinton's campaign, I wouldn't relax until they've broken 300 EVs with at least a 1 % gap in the popular vote in those states. Anything less means there's money to be had for the lawyers.

    Random question, but do networks stream their coverage? I've only got CNN Europe and the BBC as vaguely acceptable options to watch around here, and I'm not sure I can withstand hours upon hours of Wolf Blitzer, plus BBC has innate delays.
     
  11. Giovanni

    Giovanni God of Scotch

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2005
    Messages:
    8,329
    Location:
    Gilligan's Island
    Comey doesn't blunt. Just fucks with the closing argument after electorate made up it's mind based on his prior handling of situation. Textbook case study of how not to manage a politically sensitive situation.
     
  12. Darth_Revan

    Darth_Revan Secret Squirrel Prestige DLP Supporter

    Joined:
    Mar 13, 2006
    Messages:
    86
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    The Empire City
    High Score:
    2810
    On important days like Election Day, most of the networks offer free streaming, but I don't know if that extends to overseas IP addresses.
     
  13. gorlosh

    gorlosh DA Member

    Joined:
    Apr 5, 2011
    Messages:
    167
    Why would you say early voting looks good?
    Honestly, I think it looks good. NC and FLorida seem like legitimate toss ups. While Nevada looks pretty good for HRC. 290ish for HRC seems to be the best bet to me.
     
  14. Mage

    Mage Chief Warlock DLP Supporter

    Joined:
    Apr 18, 2006
    Messages:
    1,488
    Location:
    Washington, DC
    My thoughts here, including some House races and all senate races. Meandering from Northeast around the country.

    Maine CD-2
    Clinton (D) & Cain (D, ME-2) win.

    New Hampshire
    Clinton (D), Ayotte (R-Sen), Shea-Porter (D, NH-1) & Kuster (D, NH-2)

    Pennsylvania
    Clinton (D), Toomey (R-Sen), Fitzpatrick (R, PA-08)

    North Carolina
    Clinton (D), Cooper (D-Gov), Burr (R-Sen)

    Florida
    Clinton (D), Rubio (R-Sen), Muprhy (D, FL-07), Curbelo (R, FL-26)

    Ohio
    Trump (R), Portman (R-Sen)

    Nevada
    Clinton (D), Cortez-Mastro (D-Sen)

    Iowa
    Trump (R), Grassley (R-Sen)

    Arizona
    Trump (R), McCain (R-Sen)

    Georgia
    Trump (R)

    Colorado
    Clinton (D)

    New Mexico
    Clinton (D)

    Michigan
    Clinton (D)

    Wisconsin
    Clinton (D), Feingold (D-Sen)

    Missouri
    Trump (R), Kander (D-Sen)

    Indiana
    Trump (R), Young (R)

    My senate adds up to 49-51 Republican controlled, however with all the tight races I would say it's 50-50 with VP Kaine as the deciding vote. House gains about 10-12, going to say 199 Dems all told. My electoral map below.

    [​IMG]
     
  15. Sesc

    Sesc Slytherin at Heart Moderator

    Joined:
    Dec 20, 2007
    Messages:
    5,060
    Location:
    Hbg., Germany
    You think Kander in Missouri? I reach 49-51 too, but put in Katie McGinty in PA. She's been leading in the polls pretty consistently. If Kander gets it, I'm sure we have 50-50. And then in depends on what Maggie Hassan in New Hampshire does.

    NH is probably a good state to watch anyway; the margin there, for Trump or Clinton, is pretty indicative. If Trump leads, that's trouble, and if Clinton has a larger-than-expected victory, it'll help Hassan (and flip the senate) and also put away the remaining doubts about Clinton.
     
  16. Mage

    Mage Chief Warlock DLP Supporter

    Joined:
    Apr 18, 2006
    Messages:
    1,488
    Location:
    Washington, DC
    I do, Blount didn't take it seriously and Kander is a future Dem star regardless of winning or loss. It's a bit of a gut feeling though. McGinty is up, but this is just a gut feeling that she can't close it. Hope I'm wrong though, as it is a good pickup.
     
  17. fire

    fire High Inquisitor

    Joined:
    Dec 25, 2011
    Messages:
    517
    Kander is the real fucking deal. Honest, smart, and very, very charismatic - there's just something about him that makes you want to like him.

    Pity, though, that he supports a balanced budget amanedment and opposes the Iran deal while wanting to work with the likes of Tom Cotton.

    The last one we can let slide based on his military history. The second is pretty bad, and suggests uncritical hawkishness. The first, though, is just mind bogglingly retarded, and suggests a fundamental flaw in character (either you never bothered to understand such basic economics, in which case you're too irresponsible to be let near the levers of power; or you did, but ignored the truth in favour of your gut, in which case you're too lacking in judgement to be trusted with anything at all).
     
  18. Invictus

    Invictus Heir

    Joined:
    Mar 21, 2013
    Messages:
    2,611
    Location:
    Cidade Maravilhosa
    538 has Nevada, Florida and North Carolina blue. Interesting.
     
  19. Newcomb

    Newcomb Headmaster

    Joined:
    Sep 28, 2013
    Messages:
    1,000
    Location:
    The Evergreen State
    Did anyone read Glenn Beck's interview with the New Yorker?

    I think if anything is going to sum up just how fundamentally weird 2016 has been, it's that I'm currently reading an article where Glenn Beck had nice things to say about Obama and counted himself among the Black Lives Matter supporters.

    I knew Beck had been pretty vocal about his distaste for Trump, but this is like... a whole other thing.

    Kinda baffled, tbh.
     
  20. Darth_Revan

    Darth_Revan Secret Squirrel Prestige DLP Supporter

    Joined:
    Mar 13, 2006
    Messages:
    86
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    The Empire City
    High Score:
    2810
    He's either off his meds, or finally back on them.
     
Not open for further replies.