1. Hey Guest, welcome back to DLP

    As you can see, we've changed our look. We've migrated from vBulletin to the Xenforo forum system. There may be issues or missing functionality, if you find anything or have feedback, please check out the new Xenforo Migration Feedback forum.

    Our dark ("Dark Lord Potter") theme is under heavy development. We also have a light ("Light Lord Potter") theme for those happier with a light background and darker text.

    Dismiss Notice
Dismiss Notice
Hey Guest! Are you any good at cooking? Got a favourite recipe that you love to cook or bring out to impress that special someone? Why not share it! A new forum called The Burrow has opened and it's all about homemaking!

USA Elections 2016

Discussion in 'Politics' started by Banta, Apr 12, 2015.

Not open for further replies.
  1. Big Z

    Big Z Headmaster

    Joined:
    Nov 20, 2006
    Messages:
    1,046
    Location:
    Chicago, IL
    More news

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/nov/22/nasa-earth-donald-trump-eliminate-climate-change-research?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
     
  2. Invictus

    Invictus Heir

    Joined:
    Mar 21, 2013
    Messages:
    2,608
    Location:
    Cidade Maravilhosa
    Trump 2020-2024, A Strong Possibility

    Why? Because he’s Reagan’s Evil Twin. To expand on that, Trump is a serious contender for 2020, barring extreme, unpredictable shifts in geopolitics (and no, his election wasn’t such a thing, the sudden big rise of populism was) or some serious structural reforms by the Democrats, from the bottom up, where they change their whole strategy to be effective opposition and try to seriously dispute positions on all levels, from city to state, and not focusing on the Executive and Federal positions.

    http://wapo.st/2g32SJG
    Reading this article I just realized something. It was there, for a time, but right now it just clicked.

    Trump is a genius. Not in the usual sense of the world, of course. He isn’t an Einstein of politics. He is more akin to a savant, he could see and feel the political mood, and played right to it, despite whatever pundits and specialists claimed.

    He's using the opposite tactic that got Obama in the White House. Instead of trying to appease everyone, he so radicalized his discourse, and only his discourse, that he (i) created a group of fanatics and (ii) latched the Republicans to his side by using their RINO tactics that the Tea Parties loved, now used in an economic sense instead of the religious one that they favoured. This, with his victory, had an effect of forcing his internal opponents to wither support him or face handing it over to the Democrats, which is today unthinkable to most Republicans, principles nonetheless. This was only possible thanks to the Republicans radicalization in recent years, I think, where they literally would latch on to anyone on their party ‘acceptable’ spectrum than Dems of any type.

    In the other hand, he manipulated the media, that was never its biggest fan, tendency to demonize what it doesn’t like to actually hate him. Happily they answered in kind, creating such a vile figure, that literally everything that he does that doesn't end up in a nuclear war or close enough, will be seen as him improving/getting better/more sane, thus improving his image slowly, because of the low standards this same media created for him. This is an obvious generalization, and Trump is a man, there will be obvious relapses and moments of real anger, but the general message the media passed this election was ‘we don’t care about the other side’s views, and we’re wrong.’

    Further the line there's also him letting the liberal parts of the media to demonize him to comical levels. They are literally treating him like Hitler. Everytime they attack him (in increasingly hyperbolic terms, literally everyday Mother Jones and WashPo release half a dozen articles solely about how Trump and his supporters are EVIL and WHITE RACISTS) they lose more and more credibility and importance as news source, in a similar process to Fox News descent into a strawman with Obama. They forego any pretence of impartial treatment or serious journalism. The media will always be partial, but a true news channel will try to equilibrate fact and opinion, where the facts are the central and the opinion just one part of the news.

    That however, is him killing two birds with one stone. There’s a reason Fox News is the butt of many, many jokes despite being an immensely popular news channel with very good people there too. They were right this time, but it was more an incident than effort from them. They, like the media, used and were used by Trump, they were just blatant about it.

    Trump’s whole genius is how his following ‘de-radicalization’ (that never existed) reaches out for the moderate and disgruntled Democrats, not unlike anti-drugs advertisements that made pot’s actual effects much much more worse and thus destroying its own credibility the moment it was tested in RL, so is this fear-mongering effect on moderates and the indecisive.

    ‘The FBI decided the election’! One year and a half of election. Very, very, very few people decided it in the last week.

    Meanwhile Democrats kept dividing themselves thanks to increased identity politics and it's use to bring in voters, creating a party with wildly economic interests being united by social politics, which is falling apart because when you're poor, you have priorities apart from gay marriage or immigrants rights, like getting better prospects in life. Meanwhile the "political pure" will latch out at these peoples for their priorities, calling them "evil hateful people" which already happened in this election. Which is already happening. Slate is blaming ‘the white women’ for not voting with their vagina. Saloon too. They quote Susan Sarandon and think she’s out of touch with reality. She wasn’t.

    There's also their, and the media, stupid stupid tendency to do ad hominem attacks on Trump and how hilariously ineffective they are. Reagan committed treason and waged an economic war on Blacks. He's still idolized by the right. It doesn't matter that Trump is racist or mysoginist or whatever. Not really. People know that and don't care. They don't give a fuck that his children will still do business or that he gt money from them. It. Doesn't. Matter. Trump knows that, so that's why he won't put a blind trust, a Kansas City shuffle, where once again the media will hyperfocus on that and not in, well, what electors actually care. He said he could shot someone in the Fifth Avenue and he wouldn’t lose any votes. People proved his point, not the statement, right, and that’s powerful symbolism for his whole campaign, in my opinion.

    There's also the advantage he has when negotiating, he has very little to lose. He is the populist, he has the mass and the people who vote. The Republican ‘autopsy’ was a bust, their ‘big candidates’ were all busts. From Cruz, to Bush, to Jindal, to all really, all these names that have been preparing themselves for years, from very different spectrums and appeals, crushed, like they didn’t matter.

    Republicans will have to back him up or not produce anything, or not do anything and get washed out in other elections. They know this. They are hostages of their ‘Nobama’ tactics. There’s no Nobama now. Now what? Will they wage war on the man who got them POTUS despite their repeated failures? Sanders did that to Clinton, for a while. That worked out great for the Dems. Sanders ‘revolution’ was an epic failure with no major candidate he backed winning.

    Democrats are in the defensive, and there is a populist wave, they latching to their political purity will just as likely give them a fourth rout in a row. Unless they stop being so obsessed with the Executive and Federal cargos, but that's unlikely. Moderates Democrats actually got big wins, in states that Clinton lost even, but the party apparent decision to appeal to Sanders and Warren, and their bases, doesn’t bode well for its future.

    At last, there's Trump's trump card. Negotiation. He stripped his plans of any political purity/ideology, they are just ridiculous over the top version of what he wants, but the stakes are so high on his side, now that he won, that him lowering himself from his hyperbolic proposals (who would frankly do more harm than good if actually applicated) that any compromise he reaches with the Democrats or Republicans will favour him almost always. A wall? Of course he isn’t building a Berlin Wall in thousands of kilometres. He doesn’t need to. He will build a face, increase frontier patrol numbers and budgets, give them more power, build fences in strategic are and everyone will pat themselves in the back for not letting him build a wall.

    Or the Dems can, you know, go Tea Party. See how well Ted Cruz did. Where’s the Tea Party now? Swallowed by the Trump wave. They were useless except for a select group of people, not unlike the Ivory Tower Democrats from the coast and their liberal agenda.

    These last days had been all about him sending mixed messages about most issues except one clear idea: I'm open to negotiation. And the other politicians will latch on that, if not Tea Partiers and etc, then Democrats. If one side ignores it, the other will take it and mold it to their way. He will be acting more like an Independent president really, but hasn't he? His distaste for the Republican party has been made clear plenty of times. By stripping politics of ideology, he made it about deal making, a business, more than anything, something he is certainly better at than most politicians.

    Some of this is luck, a significant part is his ability to manipulate the media and the like, the rest is just the current political situation, where both sides lost a middle ground. This is a time of great disturbances and unpredictable changes, and Trump successfully rode the Tiger. As Evola created the metaphor, Trump allowed the population to ride the tiger, even if for a second, and turn all these destructives forces they so hate into an inner liberation, a defiance shout. Reality will crash down and they will be expelled sooner or later, but, when?

    Reagan was faaar from the reason of why the USSR broke down, but he is still credited by a lot of people, left and right, while Bush Sr., effectively the acting President for Reagan’s last two years and the following President, is ignored in any regards, proving that is not just being in the right place at the right time, its about a talent to position himself just right, which Trump has. Until people allow him freedom to move, he will try to get into the most opportunistic position possible, principles, ideas, or compromises be damned.

    Trump’s is still playing the media well, him hiding controversy with much less harmful controversy (him willing to work with Palestinians hiding by the Kushner comment was a classic maneuverer, crude but effective. That’s him tbh). Until both the media and Democrats are willing to play his game and focus on matters that gain little electoral traction while he ‘works’… The Dems already proved themselves to be resistant to a reform, even after three routs in sequence despite wildly stupid moves by the GOP, like the Budget Blocking crisis. The Dems don't need to do the impossible, just the painful, which Labour refused to do, which Brazil's Worker's Party refused to do. A serious self critque and reforms. Which GOP refused to do, allowing themselves to be taken over by Tea Partiers, which was doomed to fail sooner or later, and then Trump.

    Edited to make it less of a ramble
     
    Last edited: Nov 23, 2016
  3. Swirly Mango

    Swirly Mango DA Member

    Joined:
    Sep 30, 2014
    Messages:
    160
    Location:
    Sydn'y, Oz
    Not sure if I believe everything you say. I sorta still prefer the more probable answer: That he speaks of rage and that resonates. Like many others in history.
     
  4. Chengar Qordath

    Chengar Qordath The Final Pony Prestige

    Joined:
    Apr 12, 2008
    Messages:
    659
    High Score:
    1,802
    No reason he can't have tapped into populist rage and have some unconventional political skills. Heck, I could see a case for saying that identifying the growing reactionary sentiment when it comes to globalisation and open borders, then figuring out how to tap that sentiment to win an election is just another example of Trump knowing how to do politics. The idea that Trump is nothing but a lucky idiot gets questionable when one looks at how he's gone from his candidacy being regarded as a joke to President-Elect.
     
  5. KHAAAAAAAN!!

    KHAAAAAAAN!! Troll in the Dungeon Prestige DLP Supporter

    Joined:
    Apr 18, 2011
    Messages:
    1,010
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Nowhere.
    High Score:
    2,002

    Fixed that for you.
     
  6. Lamora

    Lamora Definitely Not Batman

    Joined:
    Jul 10, 2009
    Messages:
    978
    Location:
    Wild blue yonder
    Speaking as someone in the military, seeing Mad Dog Mattis as SecDef after he got passed over for Commandant would be goddamn incredible. He's a general that was universally liked by the enlisted core, which anyone with any military experience can tell you is rarer than walking in on Bigfoot fucking a unicorn.

    Seeing him standing in as a buffer between the service and our new CINC would go a lot towards easing my mind. I wouldn't be as afraid of some new war if I knew motherfucking Chaos Actual was at the reins from day one.
     
  7. Solfege

    Solfege High Inquisitor DLP Supporter

    Joined:
    Nov 21, 2008
    Messages:
    505
    Location:
    East Coast & the South
    Beautiful stuff, Invictus. Not sure I'm all the way there with you but still.

    Your observation of "savantness" resonates with the "bestial sense to follow the path of power" (noted in Who Goes Nazi) and a prior observation about the importance of positioning to come clean of his business... failures. Now whether you want to include that into your picture of a "lucky idiot," which I largely do... (isn't that essentially what a savant is? a man drawn pitiably and involuntarily into a state of nature, his will be damned).

    He doesn't have to think. He maneuvers by feels. We've seen this over and over, wherever Trump comes up against a situation and decides to wing it, "Planning... is bad luck." (His campaign, his rallies, his debates... his businesses --- wtf does a real estate developer know about higher education and running steakhouses?)

    May we live in interesting times.




    So we have Betsy DeVos as Education Secretary. Married to the Amway heir, sister to Erik Prince of Blackwater USA, and billionaire advocate for unregulated charter schools.

    And Jonathan Gray declined Treasury. Back to Mnuchin as default.

    This is funny: Jill Stein is in the house.
     
    Last edited: Nov 24, 2016
  8. Spanks

    Spanks Minister of Magic

    Joined:
    Jun 8, 2007
    Messages:
    1,296
    Location:
    New Jersey
  9. Invictus

    Invictus Heir

    Joined:
    Mar 21, 2013
    Messages:
    2,608
    Location:
    Cidade Maravilhosa
    Thanks. Got threatened with a ban for posting that on SV (sufficientvelocity), so I guess I'm doing something right, at least according to Churchill. This coming from a site where they removed the Funny rating because people were hurt that their super serious comments were getting such rating.
     
  10. Darth_Revan

    Darth_Revan Secret Squirrel Prestige DLP Supporter

    Joined:
    Mar 13, 2006
    Messages:
    81
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    The Empire City
    High Score:
    2810
    I subscribe to the notion that he spoke to the economically downtrodden and also had a shit ton of luck.

    Even broken clocks are right twice a day.
     
  11. The Iron Rose

    The Iron Rose Order Member

    Joined:
    Jan 13, 2012
    Messages:
    888
    Gender:
    Female
    Location:
    United States
    I'm not convinced that there are 50,000 votes to shift. That's not tiny by any means, though I'd obviously be delighted if that were the case.

    I mean as disappointed as I am in this election, I've never doubted its fundamental legitimacy.
     
  12. Solfege

    Solfege High Inquisitor DLP Supporter

    Joined:
    Nov 21, 2008
    Messages:
    505
    Location:
    East Coast & the South
    Nor I, really. There are no doubt some small discrepancies of the usual kind, but I'm not holding my breath.

    But the thought of Jill Stein as the stalwart for electoral integrity... not the hero they wanted but the hero they need...
     
  13. Oment

    Oment The Betrayer

    Joined:
    Apr 11, 2011
    Messages:
    1,530
    Après nous le déluge is pretty much the politician's motto, but if I have seen a more striking (or potentially catastrophic) example of it, pretty much ever, I honestly can't recall. Also, 97 % or whatever the ludicrously high number is of scientists agreeing on this is obviously a global shadowy cabal trying to TAKE ARE FREDUMZ to... I don't know? Spin donuts in your oversized SUV?

    At least they didn't go with the creationist for the DoE, unless DeVos is also one?
     
  14. Chengar Qordath

    Chengar Qordath The Final Pony Prestige

    Joined:
    Apr 12, 2008
    Messages:
    659
    High Score:
    1,802
    I'll certainly give her credit, but Trump did win the primary before she became his campaign manager so it obviously wasn't all her.
     
  15. Fiat

    Fiat The Chosen One DLP Supporter

    Joined:
    Sep 2, 2009
    Messages:
    2,214
    Well, I'm not sure if my previous posts in this thread have indicated this at all, but I'm really not a fan of the guy - I know, shocking, I've been so moderate until now - but I think this is being more than a little unfair to him. Even if you're right about the way he works, intuition strong enough to win a presidential election is, frankly, not only indistinguishable from calculating intelligence, but arguably superior to it. Conscious thought is a few orders of magnitude slower than that sort of instinct and an actual savant with functional social skills as good as his would be frighteningly intelligent.

    But no, it does not do anyone any good to decide that he's just an idiot who got lucky, or that he's some sort of savant. Underestimating your opponent is a great way to get blindsided a second time.

    He's a smart person who realized the same thing the Tea Party did back in the day. That the Republican Leadership and its base have absolutely nothing in common, and anyone who could come in and actually take the Republican party line to its natural conclusions could out-compete the rest of the party blindfolded. So he played a role, and people loved the role, and the rest of us were stuck standing with our dicks in our hands when it turned out that, yes, that was exactly what people apparently wanted.

    The Party was shouting "The Visigoths are at the gates, we stand at the edge of oblivion, let's cut government spending!" Most of its voters only really gave a shit about the first half, so he just followed it up with something that actually made sense if you accept the first half as true. "The Visigoths are at the gates, we stand at the edge of oblivion, let's build a wall and round up all the Visigoths!" He appealed to the actual interests of the the party's main voters instead of trying to convince them of the idea that Corporate Tax breaks would somehow improve their lives in a meaningful way.

    Donald Trump's character is, essentially, an intellectually honest Republican. A lot of people could have stepped in and played that part, but it's hard to imagine someone with less experience fucking with the media actually managing to pull it off without immediately getting shut down by the controversy. Dancing through controversy like that takes skill whether it's some inherent social savantism I'm not totally convinced can exist or actual analytical intellect, but either way, he managed to win the presidency with no experience and the shadiest possible history, so, maybe we should all lay off on calling him an idiot? Impulsive, dangerous - sure - but idiots can be disregarded. We all saw how well thinking that way worked for us.

    EDIT: Oh, also:
    In addition to potentially catastrophic, can anyone actually think of a time where it's been literal before now?
     
    Last edited: Nov 24, 2016
  16. Hashasheen

    Hashasheen Totally Sirius

    Joined:
    Sep 10, 2008
    Messages:
    3,489
    Location:
    Bristol
    Lamora, your Game of Champions is leaking through.
     
  17. Oment

    Oment The Betrayer

    Joined:
    Apr 11, 2011
    Messages:
    1,530
    I'm sure you can dig up examples of politicians (local or national) failing with regards to floodplain / river management and have that count.
     
  18. nath1607

    nath1607 Groundskeeper

    Joined:
    Jul 16, 2010
    Messages:
    352
    Location:
    Wales, UK
  19. Big Z

    Big Z Headmaster

    Joined:
    Nov 20, 2006
    Messages:
    1,046
    Location:
    Chicago, IL
    I just found it ironic and funny for a Trump adviser to say something like this while basically denying and cutting resources regarding climate change:

     
  20. Taure

    Taure Magical Core Enthusiast Prestige DLP Supporter

    Joined:
    Mar 5, 2006
    Messages:
    948
    Location:
    United Kingdom
    High Score:
    13,152
    Invictus, I think you've overestimating Trump's genius and also overestimating the extent to which he represents some giant change in the makeup of the electorate. Recall that he still lost the popular vote. Recall that he still received fewer votes than did McCain and Romney against Obama. The electorate hasn't swung massively against the Democrats, they just lost a few swing areas with a bad candidate. Trump didn't win, Hillary lost.
     
Not open for further replies.