Bro.

I think I literally mentioned my anger over that in this game.

 

I think font has a point...this feels like specifically town claim bungling. Like, not like "he doesn't have the information", but like "he's fucking up how he's presenting the information"

 

Alright well reading that qt made my night at least.

And yeah now that' I've settled down a bit I agree with the cobalt/Reg not W/W thing. As far as miner goes I've kind of forgotten about him with all the cobalt stuff that's gone on today. I think he's still independently kind of wolfy but idk that he makes sense with cobalt? It's something I'll look into maybe tomorrow morning if I can.

 

Kai's reaction seems pretty good.

---------- Post automerged at 09:00 PM ---------- Previous post was at 08:57 PM ----------

I am simultaneously totally lost and deeply amused.

 

Pein has picked a fucking awesome time to disappear btw.

 

I'll +1 that.

 

I dunno.

My take on it right now is that he made stuff up that he thought sounded about right (ie: n2 Jarizok) then completely flubbed it when pressed.

Like in what world does any of his justifications make sense?

Admittedly they don't make sense as either alignment, but it feels like a lie from scum rather than a mistake as town.

---------- Post automerged at 02:09 PM ---------- Previous post was at 02:06 PM ----------

And I'm still not sure that we should actually lynch cobalt over pienyan today unless there's no ambiguity at all, just because if cobalt is town that forces an immediate reaction from scum while the same isn't true for pienyan as town.

 

I'm not a hundred percent sure Cobalt is scum (in fact I'm more confused than anything) but I think disambiguating there makes this game solvable, or very close.

Though perhaps lynching Pie is the better move? Mmmmmmmmmmmmh but I'm townreading her. Augh.

PPE: Also I think I'm townreading Kai off how he's responded to claim.

 

I mean, lynching pie ALSO disambiguates...

also if pie doesn't get back before some time around deadline then I'm gonna suspect intentional lurkscum tbh. That or waiting until the last moment to make some kind of counterclaim and junk things up even further...

 

That's true.

I find it difficult to believe that pie fakeclaims here.

 

Battery down to 4% but home in ~1 hour.

Has Miner claimed yet?

 

He posted a bunch but didn't claim.

 

Hate to say it but I had I had the same thought like 5? Minutes before Fonti made that post of 'am I getting fucked over and its pie/Miner/Fable' before telling myself I need to stop being dumb

---------- Post automerged at 12:12 AM ---------- Previous post was at 12:11 AM ----------

Going to take that as him claiming VT then.

---------- Post automerged at 12:13 AM ---------- Previous post was at 12:12 AM ----------

Okay down to 2%, will get to this when I get home.

 

huh. I could have sworn he ALREADY claimed VT.
Miner --- Could you toss us a claim?

 

I thought he claimed Adult?

 

That was a fake claim though!

At home now, going to start collecting my thoughts.

---------- Post automerged at 12:57 AM ---------- Previous post was at 12:52 AM ----------

So I don't for a second believe that as mafia Cobalt intentionally fake claimed the "mechanical knowledge" role as a gambit to proceed to retract that claim and change it to a tracker claim, if he's done this as scum it's because he'd botched his initial fake claim and decided the best way to get out of this day phase was to try and sneak a mslynch through first. Can we all agree on that much? This means that he intended to maintain his "5 scum" claim as mafia which means we're dealing with worlds of 4 here pretty much never since if we hit F5 and there wasn't anymore dead scum he becomes confirmed mafia or if we hit F3 with only 3 dead scum he'd be confirmed mafia. Like we're all agreeing we're in a world of 5 here 99% of the time just by basic logic, yes?

---------- Post automerged at 01:00 AM ---------- Previous post was at 12:57 AM ----------

Also before I go into this more can I just state that fake claimers have a special place in hell.

---------- Post automerged at 01:19 AM ---------- Previous post was at 01:00 AM ----------

If Cobalt had a visit from Pie -> DC technically Pie wouldn't have been confirmed mafia to him until Pie had actually claimed VT since he could have been a PR in Cobalts eyes so the whole "Why didn't you hard out it" at day start argument is weakened, the visit does increase the chances of Pie being mafia with the BG death / knowledge that scum have a roleblocker enough to look more into that direction but not out it until later on.

I think Cobalts entrance post today in Post #2080 makes sense with this visit in that the visit should strengthen his town read on me / increase his scum read on Pie and if he's playing by the strategy of "See how people handle Pie/Me to get reads" I think him posting this and voting Kai isn't dreadful? It also fits his progression towards stating he thinks it's Kai/Pie in Post #2098. The problem I'm hitting is his initial fake claim in Post #2214 comes at a time when Pie had already claimed VT so at that point Pie should have been confirmed mafia to Cobalt so him making "another" gambit at that stage doesn't really add up; either just outright claiming and outing the guilty or claiming VT and seeing how people play before claiming later in the day phase is what'd make sense there. But instead claiming a mechanical knowledge of 5 scum instead is just ??????????. The only thing inside this post that actually looks good is his attack on Kai's claim given it's not an illogical thought process for a tracker to have at that point.

Him maintaining the gambit claim inside Post #2264 and so forth until it was really pointed out to not mesh with his posting looks pretty bad but there are several sections of Post #2266 that does make some? sense with him having a guilty on Pie at that stage which is instantly un-done by his comment about Miner in Post #2268.

I don't hate? the reasoning provided for most things inside the change-claim in Post #2294, I think the action is stupid as fuck but I think there's a semblance of reasoning behind it. I think the tracks themselves make some sense with how his reads have played out this game too albeit that's not particularly difficult to fake. I do think his reasoning behind 'laying low' occasionally to live longer in Post #2296 has some merit behind it. His reasoning behind not outing it when Pie claimed VT saying she might have changed her claim in Post #2416 is several degrees of bad.

Cobalt - When you state "No result" do you mean "Visited no one" or "Roleblocked"?

---------- Post automerged at 01:23 AM ---------- Previous post was at 01:19 AM ----------

I come out of it thinking the claims not as bad as before with one aspect that I'm having trouble getting my head around inside it; that being his treatment and actions in regards to the timing of Pie's claim, had this all occurred before Pie had claimed and he was waiting on her to out the guilty it'd make sense, as it is I'm left thinking uuhhhhhh?

From a setup-spec standpoint I think him being town makes significantly more sense v 5 scum than him being mafia, I think we'd be severely lacking power otherwise. From a 'reads' standpoint I've thought Pie was mafia for ages now and haven't really had a scum read on Cobalt throughout this game too. Then when you add in the fact that if we're looking for 3 alive with Cobalt as mafia and I don't think he's ever paired with anyone like Fable/Fonti/Kai it leaves very few worlds I think lynching Pie is probably the right move?

I think if Pie's town here there's only 1 way she ever enters the thread and assesses this situation, there's really only the 1 way she look at how the claims panned out and read it. If I see that happen I might reconsider but outside of that I think I'm happy enough? with my vote for now.

---------- Post automerged at 01:25 AM ---------- Previous post was at 01:23 AM ----------
Fable - Talk with me about the above.

---------- Post automerged at 01:28 AM ---------- Previous post was at 01:25 AM ----------

I really think this read is wrong.

---------- Post automerged at 01:28 AM ---------- Previous post was at 01:28 AM ----------

Kai's posting has increased a lot this day phase.

---------- Post automerged at 01:28 AM ---------- Previous post was at 01:28 AM ----------

And I'm liking and town reading it a lot more. Fuck early submissions.

 

Is this really the entire sum of problems with his claim from your pov?

 

The sum of problems I'm having with his claim are as follows;
- The entire "mechanics information" claim and gambit to begin with; I don't see how this is something someone thinks to do when they have a guilty at the time, there's much better avenues to take. Either claiming VT and outing the guilty after people have stated reads and you've got information or just outing the guilty would make more sense.
- The comment re; "Would change to Miner" while stating that he doesn't think the team is exactly Kai/Miner/Pie and being confident that you're scum while having a guilty on Miner is a progression that's ???
- His reasoning behind not outing the guilty saying "Pie might have changed her claim" feels very lackluster and I think if he's making a gambit as big as this there'd be stronger reasoning behind it.
- His treatment of information this game differs pretty largely from how he handled Oracle info on me in WH8.

 

So I'll just number those bullets:

1. No disagreement.
2. He's said he thinks Miner is not scum.
3. No disagreement
4. No disagreement.

So #2447 is my overall view on this series of posts, and I think you're either ignoring or missing the problems that I have with his claim.

Which is that overall it reads like he's made up something that sounds like it could have happened and not something that actually happened.

That's why there's all these weird inconsistencies / errors that I think are basically impossible to make if you were really sitting around considering your options at that time.

Spoiler

(Cobalt leaves the thread)

 

Him stating he thinks Miners not mafia, having a guilty on Pie, scum reading you and thinking you three aren't a team makes his "If Vaimes/Reg/DC want to lynch Miner I might" comment hard to fathom, that's what I'm getting at re; #2.

I don't really disagree with the points you've made inside the spoiler there? I guess I just don't attribute the same strength to them, I know the feeling of being overworked / having RL things happen and just focusing how things actually panned out and don't think that's implausible here. Like I'm personally scatterbrained at the moment where I couldn't tell you what time I went to sleep last night, or what time I woke up and posted before going back to bed and that was like 12 hours or something. I think him forgetting that Waco/Zenzao were dead at the time is fairly just meh? overall I guess.

---------- Post automerged at 02:03 AM ---------- Previous post was at 02:02 AM ----------

I think there's stronger reasons for him to be mafia than that and stronger reasons for him to be town than that for it to be something that's going to ultimately be the deciding factor for me? I really really want to see Pie's entrance here.