I just kind of want to believe that there is another info role but the one shot by Jan.
Otoh Cobalt actually only claimed tracker once basically everybody else claimed, so it being a role that makes sense in the overall setup is pretty meh.

Think Cobalt forgetting there were 2 scum dead N2 is pretty weird even if he is scum, though probably more explainable if he made the targets up.

Lynching pie is probably the more better play if I am anyway near 50/50 on Cobalt EoD

 

Remember going to sleep thinking "If I wake up to Miner claiming tracker I'm going to be left going ???????????????????? fuck" before Cobalt retracted/changed claim since that's the exact role I expected to be in the setup. So yeah, setup spec wise I really think it points towards Cobalt being town. I just don't like how the whole thing actually played out.

---------- Post automerged at 02:34 AM ---------- Previous post was at 02:27 AM ----------

Think deadline is in ~18 hours too.

Still betting on Miner being mafia regardless.

---------- Post automerged at 03:00 AM ---------- Previous post was at 02:34 AM ----------

So, some world building stuff. Worlds that Cobalts mafia & Pie's town ignoring my individual reads on players other than Vaimes and DC;

Kai & Cobalt are never partners based on interactions & the fact that if Cobalts mafia and Kai's mafia we're looking at 5 scum with only 4 PR's in the game with one of them being a BG and another doing nothing but confirming itself as town (Doublevoter), not enough power, never a thing.

Fable & Cobalt are never partners based on their interaction towards how this entire claim situation has played out, the fact that Fable is genuinely frustrated that people are lynching Pie over Cobalt. Just not a thing.

Fontisian & Cobalt are never partners, she never lets him make that initial fake claim, then attacks him hard for it and then defends him when he changes his claim, she's tied himself to him before and lost from it and it's not something she'd do again knowing that best case she gets a mslynch on Pie, Cobalt becomes confirmed mafia and she looks awful from it. Not a thing.

That means ignoring actual player reads for Cobalt!Scum & Pie!Town I think we'd have to be looking at something exactly like Cobalt/Miner/Blab, Cobalt/Miner/Stanari, Cobalt/Stanari/Blab. None of them are impossible I don't think but I they're a small enough grouping of worlds that I'm pretty comfortable lynching Pie here and thinking we still win even if Pie's somehow town.

@Kai - Talk with me about the above if you're still here?

---------- Post automerged at 03:10 AM ---------- Previous post was at 03:00 AM ----------

If we lynch Pie and she flips mafia, Miner absolutely has to be lynched tomorrow. No like if's, but's or maybe's about it, it'll be the third scum flipped in a row that he's either outright or subtly defended. Want peoples words on this.

 

Honestly I kind of think Miner needs to die regardless of whether pie is scum or not, so I'm not gonna disagree with you on that one :V

Out of Miner/blab/Stanari I'm inclined to say Stanari is town and Miner/blab are both scum...so out of your listed scum!Cobalt worlds, it'd be Cobalt/Miner/blab. The only thing I'm slightly leery of is ruling out Cobalt/Kai. I have seen a LOT of people get burned by setup assumptions, my favourite being Crook's Hollow 4 where player A claimed a role and player B suivigged player A...only for them to both flip the exact same role with different flavor.

Anyway. If Miner actually hasn't claimed then I am also suuuuuuper leery about that. Miner has been "conveniently missing" way too many things this game, missing the massclaim is kind of the cherry on top. And yeah we need to wait for a response of some sort from pie before properly continuing.

 

fable / cobalt - agree

fonti / cobalt - almost never, yeah. I don't think it's outright impossible that Cobalt just went and did whatever he wanted, but that's like the outlier of outlier worlds.

However, that line of thought is evidence against a lot of cobalt pairings (for instance regfan/cobalt) - for all this to have happened he would have had to either ignore or not check in with his buddies before making the claims.



That's not going into the mess that's the Tracker claim.

So... Cobalt / Miner / ????????? I don't even know what makes sense as the last player given what happened.

Lynching pienyan is the right play here unless something compelling happens, and then we go on from there.

 

dichotomousCreator - The Cobalt/Kai rule out isn't just from setup speculation though, there's a lot inside the thread that I don't think happens if they're both wolves and I've found Kai's analysis of Cobalts claim pretty genuine and he's assessing it from a viewpoint I don't think he does as a partner. I don't think he goes "Cobalt is probably mafia for X,Y,Z but we should optimally lynch Pie" as scum together. I'd agree that if we're looking at one of those three worlds Cobalt/Miner/Blab feels most probable mostly due to the fact that I really kind of think Stanari is town here.@Kai - Remember Cobalt apologising to Fonti profusely postgame to the QT she linked, think the odds he goes rogue on her are pretty slim. We mostly agree in that lynching Pie is the way to go though so that's good enough for now I guess?

---------- Post automerged at 04:22 AM ---------- Previous post was at 04:20 AM ----------

No idea how the space between the two paragraphs vanished there.

Will say this day feels like a fucking rollercoaster though, I came in feeling pretty ???, read through Kai's ISO and was pretty sure I'd found mafia there, then read through Miners and was more confident in that, now Cobalts claimed a guilty on Pie and at the end of it Kai's somehow come out as one of my stronger town reads.

 

Yeah, for some reason line breaks die randomly on this forum.

As for Kai/Cobalt...you kinda buried that there was an interaction read right at the top of that statement :V

That said, you're PROBABLY right, but the only niggle is that if Cobalt is scum this is ALREADY a giant stupid gambit. Why NOT add trying to get Kai towncred into the mix? (a.k.a. if Cobalt is scum I would discount basically every reaction to his claim(s) as scum would have had time to plan out exactly what reactions they want)

It's a moot point since I'm not actually too keen on lynching Kai anyway and never really was...it's more an academic "I don't think that stuff is excludable on principle" thing.

---------- Post automerged at 07:27 PM ---------- Previous post was at 07:27 PM ----------

(EBWOP: And it's not like we have anything better to do until pie gets here...)

 

Eh, I don't think this is some huge elaborate gambit if Cobalts mafia, just him butchering an initial fake claim and deciding to try and rescue it by creating a 1 v 1 so I don't think there's a big "It's done to make Kai look better" type thing. But you're right there's not a lot to discuss here until Pie arrives and with the day ending in ~15 hours we're probably always lynching Pie here and it's very probably going to result in her flipping mafia.

I'm heading to bed shortly, I should be back before deadline. If I'm not I'm hoping someone takes control and makes sure we get a lynch through between Cobalt/Pie (preferably Pie).

 

I am literally going through an emergency right now. I don't know if I will be able to get anything done in this game before the deadline tomorrow.

Sorry everyone. If you all lynch me bc of this I can't even blame you, but I want you all to unanimously promise me Reg dies first thing tomorrow.

---------- Post automerged at 03:56 AM ---------- Previous post was at 03:55 AM ----------

I have not read anything or thought about this game at all since my last post (and given what's been going on with me it sure as hell won't be tonight).

I'll only be back like a few hours before the deadline. I'm really sorry this has happened.

 

pienyan - Cobalt has claimed a tracker guilty on you, if you're going to peace out due to a IRL thing at least vote him before you leave so we have options when it comes to deadline.

---------- Post automerged at 05:58 AM ---------- Previous post was at 05:58 AM ----------

(Also hope everything ends up okay)

 

Lmfao.

Vote: Cobalt

If I'm lynched, amend that to make sure Cobalt dies first thing tomorrow and Reg dies first thing after that. I can't write more atm but go back and look at how Cobalt agreed with Reg specifically about "me/Waco" D2, despite Reg having a bunch more points that were *actually* about me. It's all coordinated.

---------- Post automerged at 04:04 AM ---------- Previous post was at 03:59 AM ----------

Here's a very very short tl;dr of why Reg is scum, I can't write anymore rn.

1. His treatment D2 of Waco involved a lot of agreeing with other people about the scum reads on Waco (including me who he was scum reading), but no original reasoning for Waco being scum. It's scum taking advantage of a consensus read on their partner to form a bus.

2. He spent way too much effort linking me-Waco pre Waco flip, and Jari/Zen pre Zen flip.

3. Before the emotional manipulation stuff happened, his treatment of me was still a complete catch 22. He pushed me for not being around, and then when I did get invested he goes "o wait nope, you're still scum" and had no reason despite "oh, your posts don't ~resonate~ with me", _despite_ the fact he goes and says he even _liked_ my posts about Waco???

4. His town read on Waco since the start of the game was horrible (i.e. town reading Waco's entrancre, saying he liked Waco's read on Plotless despite it just being "hey plotless, are you scum? I think you may be scum"). So is having Zen as lock-town at one point D1 despite Zen's lack of actually doing anything.

---------- Post automerged at 04:05 AM ---------- Previous post was at 04:04 AM ----------

Cobalt being scum will be obvious after I flip, don't pay attention to whatever excuse he's going to come up with for it.

---------- Post automerged at 04:06 AM ---------- Previous post was at 04:05 AM ----------

Vaimes, Fable, fonti and Stanari are all town unless something weird happened in the pages I didn't read.

 

If you get the chance to spare ~30 minutes I think you need to read how everything has panned out, it's pretty important given there's absolutely zero way you can think I'm mafia after reading it.

---------- Post automerged at 06:10 AM ---------- Previous post was at 06:07 AM ----------

Doesn't necessarily have to be now since I'm about to call it a night but carving out time for it if you can before deadline is vital, we can talk then.

---------- Post automerged at 06:12 AM ---------- Previous post was at 06:10 AM ----------

Also when you get a chance you'll need to walk me through when you actually read through things because your #2468 at :56 suggests you have no idea what's happening, I point it out at :58 and at :59 you're somehow up to date and caught up and have a post already typed?

 

I read like, this page. I'm just assuming based on what you said and a few posts on the previous page there's a wagon on me (which seems to be backed up by what you're saying now about the Cobalt shit).

---------- Post automerged at 04:25 AM ---------- Previous post was at 04:22 AM ----------

I literally don't even think I'll be around again until like a few hours before the deadline. There's a chance I'll be able to get a few posts scattered around here and there but I won't have an actual block of time to really sit down and be "in" the game

 

Few hours before the deadline works for me, I'll try and make sure to be around. There's a lot? that's gone on in the past 24 hours though. Anyway putting the laptop down and going to sleep.

Hope it's nothing too serious and it all works out.

 

It is, unfortunately.

I am still not sure whether things will be OK or not.

 

Ack, that's awful timing. Hope your thing goes okay pie, whatever it is.

I'm gonna assume pie is sticking to VT claim, so ok fine pie/Cobalt one scum try and pick the correct one to run over first if possible

this sucks because I had townreads on both of them

I mean

I GUESS we still hit pie? It's kind of ugh for me at this point. I feel like we should lynch whoever we're in the WORST situation if they're scum (so as to mitigate worst case outcomes) but I'm not really sure who that IS. Anyone got any ideas?

 

Not great to hear. Fingers crossed it does work out.

Lynch Miner hit scum?????

But no, you're right we should be lynching inside Cobalt/Pie which is pretty frustrating because I think we're always hitting on Miner here. I'll probably make a decision in the morning, really need to see how Pie attempts to assess and analyse this when/if she gets the time.

 

To the first paragraph "uuhhhh" is really your only thought on it? I really can't help but think your cutting this claim extra slack because it's giving you what you want and you're too far gone to judge it objectively. What part of pein claims in a way that would confirm her as wolf to cobalt and his immediate reaction is to fake claim and not interact with her at all? Instead he focuses on kai instead when he literally had an outed wolf in front of him, "I thought his claim was iffy" is not a good enough excuse for that shit. Like if he wanted to lynch pein at some point before all this I don't think my reaction would be as strong but 2266 implies he would have been pien just letting her go for the rest of today. That's not okay and not how someone who has a guilty on someone acts towards them when compared to how he acted towards kai just because "one shot doc doesn't exist with BG."

 

I mention most of that here ^?

 

Then how are you fine with it?

 

It's my fault, I was around like 12 hours ago but went to take care of some other shit I had to do because I thought I'd be able to do stuff in this game this last evening/night. That sure went as expected . . .

If you want reads, I still would never, ever, ever be emotionally manipulative as scum to the extent I would had to have been in this game were I scum, but at this point I'll be low-energy for the next while, so I literally would not fault you all for lynching me simply out of me not being able to give you all enough to be able to read me.