Imagine if the scumteam was dC/Reg and I just spent the last hour trapped in a room with only two scums to talk to.

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You think I'm joking but my town meta is screaming until I die or until all the scums die.

 

I'm not trapped in here with you...YOU'RE TRAPPED IN HERE WITH ME!!!

 

Pretty low, I'm going to sleep soon probably.

 

Fair. There a specific time in the next ~15 hours you confident you can be around an hour or so. If so tell me the time and I'll set my alarm.

 

15 hours???

Probably at 2~2:30 PM my time (GMT-7), but like, there's still a bunch of game I need to *actually* sit down and read and if you're seriously asking me to be able to do stuff in real-time without having got my bearings first, you haven't been paying attention.

 

That in pretty much exactly 14 hours from now?

And day ends in ~43 hours, I'd like the conversation to be at least some time before the deadline here. If you can squeeze the time try and get /some/ of the reading some before then and we can just go over a few things then.

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dichotomousCreator - Take your time answering this because if you're town I need to see some actual analysis from you and do actually care where/why you come out of this. So if Vira (Lets face it, she's the real mod here) came into the thread and stated that shock horror Fable was mafia and that he had a partner inside Miner and Blab and we had 1 lynch left to determine if we win or lose, who out of Miner and Blab do you think would be his most likely partner and why? Do you think there's a particular team in there (Fable/Blab) or (Fable/Miner) that can be outright ruled out here? Links, reasoning, thoughts, please.

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blab - I'll ask you the same question but change the names around. If Vira confirmed that Miner was mafia and stated he had 1 partner in the game and it was one of DC and Fable, who is it and why?

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pienyan - If you haven't somehow dozed off already ping me and we can talk now. I don't mind if you've not done all the reading that's necessary at all. I'll just be here casually reading the thread / organising dinner.

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(I'm very happy to and actually expecting you to do some big rereading before responding ftr DC and Blab, personally I'm going through as many of Wacos/Zenzaos/Cobalts/Blabs/Miners/DCs/+1 more ISO today and seeing if I can confidently start narrowing this down even more then I already have)

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I've got through Wacos & Zenzaos, Wacos was pretty useless.

I've got a few Zenzao/Blab and Zenzao+1 interactions I want to look more at in context but from Zenzao's end alone I still think this, this and this just really feels like Stanari completely spewed town. Also he tried to tie the shit out of me to Cobalt in this post imo.

 

...okay so amusingly my eye is immediately caught by posts #25/#26/#27 where Fable/blab/Miner are all cross-joking around early. I...don't think that means anything.

Anyway. I went into this thinking Miner simply because scummier in a vacuum, but posts like #1123 make me wonder if blab isn't more likely. On top of this, like I said earlier blab's play makes the most sense if he has a buddy that's managed to dodge the lynch and Fable would fit that bill. Miner, by contrast, is acting like desperate scum and so is more likely to be buddies with someone else who's in a bit of trouble.

I admittedly haven't reread the WHOLE thread, but I'm not finding Fable/blab interactions particularly common in the places I AM looking. This is less important because blab is low interaction with everyone. I'm finding some actual interactions/scrutiny between Fable/Miner, though only earlier on? Later he seems to get distracted.

On the OTHER hand, his play around Miner today is "pushes a different lynch but still thinks Miner is scum". Notably, I don't think he actually voted Miner today and his only comment on that early on was #2660 which was just saying Miner hadn't voted. I could buy this being the run up to a bus tomorrow I guess? He's been oddly quiet today except for whining at you and me, and some of his whining at you is while you're trying to push Miner so :/

Overall I don't know Fable's meta which hampers this a lot. His interactions with miner/blab are two different flavours of scum interaction: "completely ignore" vs. "tiptoe around and throw things at occasionally so a bus doesn't look like it's coming out of nowhere". #2736 suggests Reg/blab as a team which feels like it's less likely if Fable is buddied with blab. Add on that I think blab is overall less likely scum than Miner and I think Fable/Miner is the clear winner of the two, especially as the "keep a scumread on Miner at arm's length" play would be prioritized if Miner was coming off as scummy, which he has been.

Wouldn't rule out either, though. Fable/blab has no disqualifying features, with Fable ignoring blab and blab sitting on a consensus townread of Fable while proposing lynch chains that get him killed. I do think this is mostly moot as Fable is probably town, but there you are. I've focused MOSTLY on today because I think it's the most relevant information, as none of these people have flipped and I don't think their reactions to scumflips are particularly illuminating in terms of coalignment specifically. In those regards, I still just think Miner is more likely scum than blab without considering Fable in the mix.

tl;dr Fable/miner, in this team Fable has been prepared to bus Miner but not actually doing it for some time. This is only mildly odd, but Fable/blab doesn't seem to have much putting it above status quo in possibility and Miner is considerably scummier than blab as an individual player. While "Fable is keeping Miner at arms length with soft shade (another random sample: #2525)" and "Fable is completely ignoring blab" are about even, Miner being more likely scum in a vacuum is essentially the tiebreaker.

I could try and read more of the thread, but I don't think this underlying analysis would change unless there was a smoking gun somewhere that I missed, and I'm pretty sure there isn't or I wouldn't be townreading Fable at all.

On an unrelated note, I found #1840 which seems to not match your "I wasn't really pushing pie that hard!" thing...

 

Providing links to the post #'s would make things significantly easier but thanks for the analysis, how does Blabs reaction and interaction with Zenzao about his Fable scum read in this post and this post impact your read and thoughts there if at all?

I explained that in pretty big detail;

 

Well first of all, how do I link posts properly? Is there BBCode for it? I'm trying the hyperlink button and it's horrible. Anyway.

Post #717: Null. I firmly believe blab, like myself, would balk at Zen doing that regardless of who Zen was walling. Ensuing conversation is a minor strike against, with Zen providing the reasoning for scum!Fable and blab agreeing. Feels weird if Zen, Fable, and blab are ALL scum and two of them are colluding in thread to bus a third one, and in your scenario Zen and Fable are modfirmed scum. In fact, that exchange might even make blab feel slightly more town on individual merits...

Post #720: Oh wait oops I answered that in the "ensuing conversation" section.

 

Url=link][/Url] with a [ up the front and the link of the post replacing the word link obviously, is how you post them. Or at least that's how I do. And yeah, I think I agree with your analysis although I'm not convinced it's super strong reasoning.

 

It's not, really. It's all circumstantial and glancing contact reads, because Miner/blab and Fable haven't interacted all that much so it's kinda slim pickings. I was admittedly surprised Fable hadn't gone harder on Miner in the past; I had the impression that he had. Are you actually considering Fable scumworlds here, by the way?

testing, also turns out this is literally the 1000000th post on the forum. Or at least the post with that index.

 

That's a pretty impressive one to nab.

And eh, I'm more considering everything even small tin-foil words because if I somehow get mslynched today I don't really want to leave behind a losing legacy and making sure I'm not missing something and am confident in my call is something I need to happen. I think I've narrowed it down to ~4 plausible scum teams that I want to cull a little more.

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Probably being unclear, I would never recommend or even considering lynching Fable outside of a F3, but if he's alive at that stage I might suggest it a good idea and do it myself if I was there but even then it's probably a trigger I'd not be able to do since I'd feel disgustingly bad about if I was wrong. But it's still something that I shouldn't entirely rule out.

 

That makes sense. That's more or less what I meant when I said a given world is "not impossible but I will probably lose to it anyway". It's just improbable enough that I'm not willing to check for it at the cost of more probable worlds.

 

See I'd feel bad with myself if I didn't even consider/looking into the plausibility of the world, if I look at it and think it's very unlikely and a slim chance and it's wrong then it's one I can take on the chin and accept the loss. But if it's one I don't even bother to check then that's just something I wouldn't be able to get over.

 

I guess from my perspective, "Fable is independently town so Fable worlds are inherently too unlikely to bother with" is generally good enough for me. I use interactions more to figure out which of the scummy players are on a team and check co- and anti-aligns with dead scum when that scum flips, as opposed to seriously considering worlds with high townread players.

(Oh, and PoE by anti-aligns sometimes. Although a lot of this is less effective in this game because it feels like the people who are scummy haven't been very connected...)

 

Yeah but um? The only world you're "Considering" right now is Miner/Me. Do you have another world of 2 that you consider "realistic", if not then you're not really doing much to solve the game against a world of 2 and stating "well it's probably 4 and just one of Blab/Reg/Miner" is a super weak answer.

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I'd fully understand the "I'm not going to get paranoid and consider my town reads" answer from you if you had a few scum teams that you were throwing out or a lot of conviction in the one you had but I don't really think either of the case.

 

I mean the issue I'm facing is that I have townreads on everyone except you, blab, and Miner and I'm not really seeing/feeling anything to challenge those. So from that perspective it's kind of meh to push any 2scum worlds that aren't just some combination of those three, and even at that point it's like I don't REALLY think blab is scum? It's probable enough to consider but not probable enough to put above you/Miner.

If I'm not throwing out much conviction, it's because I'm acutely aware my reads have been bad and I don't want to drive town off a cliff :/. Like, Cobalt turning out to be scum was a pretty big blow to my read confidence and I don't think anything Cobalt did would have twigged me to him being scum because my townread on him was mostly "I recognize this play pattern as a town one". Apparently it wasn't!

(Oh yeah also don't remember playing against a bus that hard before)

Anyway. I'm happy to respond to prompts, but I'm not really keen to try and wrest control of the lynch away from people who have a better idea what they're doing (i.e. Vaimes/pie)

 

Okay but mod walks in here confirms it's 2 scum and I get lynched and flip town, what's the scum team? You've got to have some idea and frankly the manner you've been speaking with me today doesn't come across as you having a scum read on me nor does it come across as you attempting to solve my alignment?

Like if you're town I need you to do something, anything to show me that because what you're currently doing just feels like it makes so much sense in a DC+Blab world and still some sense albeit less in a DC+Miner world and you're hoping that two mslynches on me + one of Blab/Miner wins you the game.

 

It's Miner/blab at that point. I have no idea what it would be otherwise, and I'm not expecting that but I'm MORE not expecting other things. Like, we're in mirroring positions where I know I'm town, you (allegedly :V) know you're town, and we both find Miner/blab scummy and everyone else towny.

And I mean, here's the thing. Whichever of {Reg/Miner/Blab} I pencil in as the most likely two scum, DC + the leftover is a pattern that fits my behaviour. There's kind of just no getting around that. If it was Miner/blab then DC+Reg would make sense, if it was Reg+blab then DC+Miner would make more sense. I wanna say it's mostly an artifact of the situation we've found ourselves in.

I mean, from where I'm sitting I have to weaken my townreads on everyone else or DC+Blab remains a sensible world, so if I don't think I SHOULD weaken those townreads then ???

I could go back and reaffirm them with evidence, but that feels like a gigantic waste of time given I probably won't change my mind and if I do I'll probably be wrong about it.

 

Yeah, but what I'm getting at is I'm trying to drag things from you and get a better read on you from it. I don't see that in reverse, I don't see how my posts today at all have impacted on your read on me and the game and that's what's fitting more with a scum agenda than the town one.

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Anyway I'm heading to bed so I can get up in time for Pie.