Reading back and I'm not sure I understand this. Why would dC flipping wolf increase the likelihood of me or stanari being a wolf?

---------- Post automerged at 01:44 PM ---------- Previous post was at 01:34 PM ----------

Like reading over miner today so far him mostly reaffirming that that guy that shot a wolf isn't one himself is pretty ???. But then again we had that same exact conversation about Vaimes in WH8 too.

 

Regfan
beyond everything that makes me think Fable is town there is also this against miner/Fable

"Please stop townreading all my scummates, except the scummate you are not scumreading, please townread that guy"

---------- Post automerged at 01:50 PM ---------- Previous post was at 12:54 PM ----------

Ok, I have reread Stanari and she is just town, there is nothing that makes a miner+Stanari team especially unlikely, think how Stanari approaches Regfan lately makes Regfan-Stanari slightly more unlikely, but I think independently she is pretty town.
Vaimes is town for like a hundred reasons.
pienyan is town.
Fable is town, he is not definitely not aligned with Zen (Zen doesn't spend the effort just for two of his walls ending up on scummates, the Fable<=>Zen interaction with Fable's anger and Zens non-apology for scumreading him is scum/town), Fable is not aligned with Cobalt (see: yesterday), Fable is not in miner/Fable team, can see Fable gamesolving, can not see scumagenda.
I haven't reread dC, so let's take him out of the townpile for a moment.

I'm left with:
Regfan, miner, dC of which Regfan-dC is not a thing, and Regfan-miner is also not a thing, so:
Regfan
miner
dC
miner+dC


I owe a dC reread, but if I come out feeling town, I am back at probably 4 scum of which the Regfan/Cobalt/Waco/Zen team is likelier than the miner/Cobalt/Waco/Zen team.
Still think Regfan is more strongly unaligned with the rest of the players, so lean towards lynching miner first.

---------- Post automerged at 01:58 PM ---------- Previous post was at 01:50 PM ----------

I mean he put 4 townies in the bottom 4 (bottom 7 if pienyan is town), so he clearly didn't spread his scummates around evenly. Can buy that he put his scummates all together on purpose, though if that was the only post I had to go to, solo!miner and solo!Reg (and solo!dC for that matter) is slightly more likely than dC/miner.

 

Yeah hi Reg. You here?

---------- Post automerged at 02:08 PM ---------- Previous post was at 01:37 PM ----------

For the record I'm actually going through stuff and I seriously continue to think Reg's posts today are just off and forced. The stuff he's saying is so far off from what he's actually done and what's actually happened in the game. It's more like he's trying to spin a narrative, and his whole progression surrounding the Miner push today is just off.

So Reg, if you're town, the most productive thing for you to do would be to attempt to really sell me on wherever I might find scum if we're in a gamestate where you're town. Don't give me any of this "oh I wasn't focusing on you!!" or "oh I'll just ignore this really important point we can talk about it in postgame!!" bullshit.

 

Here but ok my phone on the way to work;

https://forums.darklordpotter.net/showpost.php?p=1000029&postcount=2945

Please read the above post and at least talk with me as if the mod had confirmed me as town at least for this interaction. I really need someone else to look at the game like they were from my perspective and tell me if they agree/disagree with where I'm at.

---------- Post automerged at 04:14 PM ---------- Previous post was at 04:10 PM ----------

Like I'm genuinely at the stage where the list if things I'm confident on is this;

There's 5 scum
Vaimes/Stanari/You are town
There's 1 in DC/Fable and 1 I'm Blab/Miner

So where have I gone wrong if I have and can you eliminate one if the 4 worlds im looking into?

 

I agree Vaimes and Stanari are town, I agree Fable is almost always town but should be reconsidered in 3p if it really comes down to it.

Past that I don't know, I need a bit.

Remind me why it can't just be four scum with daytalk.

 

Well for one you're a little off thinking I'm ever a wolf here.

 

Why is Miner/blab not a thing?

---------- Post automerged at 02:23 PM ---------- Previous post was at 02:22 PM ----------

(That was also to Reg but if anyone else wants to answer, alright)

 

Id rather lose at least knowing I considered you. I don't know if I'd ever have the balls to actually hammer you in a 3 way LYLO though. But just assuming you're always town makes it 2 scum teams with DC in both?

They're not really doing a single thing to win in that world? Vaimes comes into the day with Blab/Reg/Miner and they're both mostly happy with that. Like if they get me mslynched who else do they get lynched? Who else are/were they trying to pull into the suspect pool, Blab hard town reading DC earlier today is him closing off an opening he'd require. There was also a bunch of interactions with the flipped scum that pointed against this team existing.

 

I'm OK with that argument.

Remind me why it can't just be four scum with daytalk. Or link me. I'm tired right now and forgetting shit.

 

I mean I'm 99% on it being dC/miner so that sounds about right.

 

Am I actually gonna have to go reread DC properly now?

Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaa

 

You can read my ISO's on him so at least I can say one person did. ;_;

 

If you do can you please try and take note of the likelihood of DC/Miner or DC/Blab when doing it. Like I really consider today lylo and kind of think I need to have it /fully/ solved by EOD but I'm kind of struggling to reduce the teams myself

---------- Post automerged at 04:39 PM ---------- Previous post was at 04:39 PM ----------

I most certainly did?

 

Oh.

I don't remember you mentioning that. >.>

 

Purely based on individual reads, if you're town, I'd go with DC/Miner over DC/blab. I don't really feel like blab's posts today are as scum-motivated as you seem to think they are, he's mostly just someone who's left over as a POE read.

 

Possibly? I've actually found Blabs play scummier than Miners today today's though in that I don't think Blab believes his 4 scum team world he's mostly focusing on. He's done nothing to really look at the QTs I linked to him and it feels like all of his stances at the moment feels calculated/agenda driven. I also think the way DC and Blab are playing comes across as them thinking they have their two MLs sorted for the win. I don't really see the same thing from DC/Miner albeit you can probably make the argument that DC is trying to line up going Miner->Me and to win it in 3 way?

---------- Post automerged at 04:48 PM ---------- Previous post was at 04:46 PM ----------

I don't know. Like randomly I should have a ~25% chance to call the exact scum team with the reads I'm at but I feel like I'm still going to get it wrong and it hurts.

---------- Post automerged at 04:50 PM ---------- Previous post was at 04:48 PM ----------

I've kind of been hoping for a AHA moment where I can remove a team very confidently and be able to go 'X is scum in all worlds' and strongly push a lynch I feel good about. But it's not come.

 

I feel like there's something terribly wrong about this game.

Something just doesn't seem to add up about it.

 

Don't disagree with that.

I've got another ~30 minutes on the train. We can talk about DC & CO later after youve done your reading. Is there anything you specifically want from me?

 

I think the following is absolutely true: if Reg is town, Miner's play today is consistent with scum hoping to float by and take advantage of the consensus scum reads on him.

On second thought, I don't actually have that much paranoia that both of them are T/T. The problem is wtf to do after that because if Reg is town I don't know if I can find the last scum with one lynch.

---------- Post automerged at 03:04 PM ---------- Previous post was at 03:01 PM ----------

Not right now, if I need anything will let you know.