He could be, it's just under that lynch order we'd be in the "Miner scum->proceed from there" case. It wouldn't rule out Reg.

 

I mean I'd like to think I've explained most of my actions properly here or at least given you an inside in my head and how I was thinking and trying to solve the game; if you don't find that genuine or think it's something I can fabricate as mafia then there probably isn't much I can do to change your mind and I'll just have to accept the fact that we're in a situation where a mslynch today means an inevitable mslynch on me tomorrow for the loss.

I'll just have to try and dedicate whatever time I can get in the next ~24 hours to making absolute certain we don't miss today; frankly I wouldn't blame you for mslynching me this game. I'd like you to at least contemplate the situation I'm in and try and gamesolve at least a bit from my perspective though, that's about all I can ask from you here; like I'm still in a situation where I think there's 4 worlds and think it's a case of 1-1 in two piles.

 

Quick question while I'm wading through today's posts again.

Don't focus as much on world-building and try to read play directly. Do you see Miner's behavior towards you this game day coming from a town POV? Does his play towards Jari D3 change anything? Yes/no.

 

Thought this implied no Reg/Miner?

 

That question was meant as an "is there issue with this plan", not "I don't think Miner is possible". I don't think Reg/Miner can be safely ruled out in a vacuum.

 

This is where it gets tough because of two larger reasons; a) A lot of the issues I'm having with his play this day phase - no real effort/care shown, no real depth to his reads are both things that happened last game in WH8 where he was town, I think alone they're still scum tells but the strength of them is questionable in this scenario compared to another player and b) Fontisian strongly town read Miner, I think it's very plausible she's wrong on him but she admittedly does have a better grip on him then I do. I wanted to talk with her about this read today but never got the opportunity and I think with her getting what effectively is vig-killed I kind of want to give her a small benefit of the doubt with this read; I can imagine had that have been me that was shot and my strong town read was lynched directly afterwards I'd be spewing.

---------- Post automerged at 08:20 PM ---------- Previous post was at 08:19 PM ----------

Anyway that might give you a better idea of why I've played today as I have.

 

Ah, righto, point taken.

I'm pretty convinced that one of those two is scum minimum thanks to how today has shaken out and they probably BOTH are, so I have no problems with this lynch order. If we haven't won by the time we get to me then I'll reassess.

---------- Post automerged at 11:22 AM ---------- Previous post was at 11:21 AM ----------

(EBWOP: To be fair, font strongly townread Cobalt as well. Given Miner was ALSO pointlessly antagonistic to anyone who criticized him and was relatively scarce, I'm inclined to think the townreads were for similar reasons. Given THAT and the fact that Cobalt was scum, I'm pretty confident font was just wrong)

 

She has a much higher accurately rage reading him than I do and I don't think her town read on him was related to her town read on Cobalt. Like don't get me wrong, I think it's very possible she was wrong on him but given the situation we are in its something that is going to impact my reads to some degree.

---------- Post automerged at 08:33 PM ---------- Previous post was at 08:26 PM ----------

I feel like I just need to feel confident enough that someone is mafia and just push it, and if they flip mafia then the game becomes winnable.

---------- Post automerged at 08:35 PM ---------- Previous post was at 08:33 PM ----------

Submitting before I finished typing zzz.

but I'm not sure who to actually heavily commit on. I'm leaning towards DC being if he's town then Fables mafia and I don't think we ever beat a Fable!Scum world anywhere particularly given the current reads one me and the fact that zero people think this is a real possibility anyway plus it's a situation where I'd actually feel okay losing?

 

Hi.

font knows my meta better than anyone.

Also, I really am not getting this "pointlessly antagonistic" stuff coming from dC.

Like, yes, I occasionally get abrasive if I'm super pissed about the gamestate or a specific player's playstyle/posts.

I'm never going to be antagonistic just because. Like the only thing that I'm pointlessly antagonistic about is how much I want to murder Vaimes's pet, but that's a whole 'nother can of worms.

 

Let's pretend I'm modfirmed for two seconds. What do you tell me to convince me Fable is mafia?

---------- Post automerged at 11:40 AM ---------- Previous post was at 11:38 AM ----------

What I mean by this is "pointlessly (for scum) antagonistic", i.e. scum by and large try to be LESS abrasive about those things.

My point was that font may have townread both Cobalt and you for being unnecessarily abrasive, and she was demonstrably wrong about Cobalt at least.

If it's meta stuff then meh whatever my personal opinion is that isn't super relevant this far into the game. Besides, uh, Cobalt was scum so it's clearly not 100% accurate

 

I'm pretty sure she townread Cobalt for other reasons, not the least of which being that the last time Cobalt was scum she was his scumbuddy.

 

That Miner/Blab are never together here? That I think there's completely unfakeable things that cement Stanari/Pie/Vaimes as town whereas for Fable it's moreso a case of his interactions with scum and his play look really good but I've been told he's a great scum player so maybe not impossible?

That his play today feels a little weird in that he's confident that I'm town but isn't really doing anything to convince Pie & Vaimes of such. And that he's ruling out Blab for reasons that aren't something I'm agreeing with for the most part and his confidence on Miner/DC feels over-blown? I don't don't have much commitment to this read because there's just a lot that points towards him being town but it's something that's whirled around in my head during the day.

 

Hmmmm.

Okay, so the reason this interests me particularly is that we're in very symmetrical situations but you've put Fable up as a possibility if I'm town while I've put blab up instead if you are.

In a world where we're both town, the scum are in {Miner/blab/Fable}. I am gathering that your position is more or less "independently Fable is the towniest, but because Miner/blab is unlikely Fable must be scum in this scenario". My position is that Fable is likely ENOUGH to be town that it overrules the unlikeliness on Miner/blab (if that scumteam exists it's pretty much screwed, so I can very much imagine them putting up a half-hearted effort at this point).

I am gathering that you disagree with this, and you think scum!Fable is more likely than Miner/blab being scum together. I can understand your reasoning for Fable being a little bit less than unimpeachable town (even if I don't entirely agree with everything there...in particular, I would guess he's trying to convince people you're town by arguing I'm scum), but "not trying to win" aside what makes Miner/blab so unlikely on your end?

(I'm sure you've explained this before, but I'd appreciate a short, sharp rundown of points)

 

"I don't agree with fable therefore he's a wolf"

Because you agreeing with someone has been such a great fucking gauge for their this game?

Also I'm not really doing much to convince pein and vaimes because I don't think there's any real risk to you getting lynched? Like I think we're always lynch miner here but if it starts to look otherwise believe me I'll speak up.

---------- Post automerged at 10:02 PM ---------- Previous post was at 10:01 PM ----------

EBWOP

/tenchar

 

Aight so I got what I wanted to look into.

From what I remember, over the course of the game, DC had a lot of softball interactions about Reg (i.e. agreeing other points about him held merit, or disagreeing but still maintaining Reg could be scum, or weak pressure) but it never culminated in a serious push. The way DC has played this game day around Reg is consistent with that - there's lots of arguing, back and forths, theory talk but he seems to be staying away from an actual push and always coming back around to Miner.

I also am recalling that DC and Reg *both* dismantled the idea that Waco/Cobalt was W/W when I brought it up, and then DC tried to dismantle the idea of Cobalt/Reg when it came up D4.

Reg's side of this is a little different; he seems to be legitimately pushing DC. I'm of two minds with respect to this. A part of me thinks that I'm overthinking this and it's sufficient cause to rule Reg/DC out. Another part of me thinks that this is consistent with the pattern scum-Reg would be exhibiting this game, which would be "town read or ignore partners but then when the flow of the game turns to them, try to take advantage of it early".

Urrrghhh. It just all makes so much sense as being coordinated.

---------- Post automerged at 07:04 PM ---------- Previous post was at 07:03 PM ----------

And I won't ever forget how DC and Reg played off of each other re: Reg's push on me the entire game. "Make huge push on pie" from Reg and "try to get huge push on pie written off as town/town" from DC just makes so much sense.

 

Fable

Why exactly is Reg not an option today?

 

Fable - It's more a "I can see Fable pushing the DC/Miner thing this hard if it's actually a Fable/Blab world and he doesn't want there to be any risk of Blab getting lynched and him having to play a 3 way lylo", it's weak reasoning but it's something that raises an eyebrow, like this contemplation should be pretty understandable? And I think there is a legitimate chance of me getting mslynched here, if not today then tomorrow or the day after so your treatment of the situation is something that does make some sense from mafia, doubt you are but it's not something I'm going to ignore or write off completely.

---------- Post automerged at 09:09 PM ---------- Previous post was at 09:07 PM ----------
dichotomousCreator - "I am gathering that your position is more or less "independently Fable is the towniest, but because Miner/blab is unlikely Fable must be scum in this scenario"" - This is exactly what I'm at. I'll grab links that pointed heavily against Miner/Blab later, can't while I'm at work but I saw a sufficient amount when I was rereading the flipped scum to think this is never a thing.

 

Well I'm a villager and I think blab's posts have actually been good so no I don't actually understand it, it seems like a world to consider just for the sake of it because I don't know how on earth you fit me/blab in with the rest of the wolves.

---------- Post automerged at 10:15 PM ---------- Previous post was at 10:14 PM ----------

This deserves a longer response because you're actually asking me why I'm V reading Reg. I'm submitting for a walrus on MU atm so I'll go over this after I'm done with that.

 

Regfan; Were you the one who brought up that if we're in a DC/Miner world, DC seems to be taking a harder path than he needs to to win (i.e. you->blab)?

I'm in agreement with that, except I don't think that rules them out as partners at all. It'd simply just be a conscious choice on his part to bus. (You've seen this from i.e. Dunn in the dance game, who I used this exact same sort of logic to incorrectly rule out for a large part of the game).

 

Considering I've contemplated switching to Blab a few times during this day phase we obvious have a very different impression of Blabs posting today and a very different read on him? I haven't seen anything that really points against Blab being with any of the flipped wolves and while I think there's a few things that are highly unlikely to make you scum I'm aware you're a very good scum player so I'm not going to consider it impossible to do things I might for others.

---------- Post automerged at 09:24 PM ---------- Previous post was at 09:23 PM ----------

Yeah, I did. I don't think it's something that rules them out, just makes it less likely then DC/Blab.