Will be home and able to start devoting time to solving this in ~6 hours.

 

I have not done anything I needed to get done in this game, I've felt like crap recently. I'll try to tonight.

 

Okay so caught up on todays posts and I'm still not feeling great about where I'm at; still think the last scum is inside one of Fable/DC and there's a few worries I have re; it not being DC here in that I don't think I can ever actually get Fable lynched in a F4 if he's scum here.

I also think the Vaimes kill points slightly against DC being mafia given Vaimes is pretty adamant about his "Scum don't list 3 partners in the same grouping" type reasoning which would have meant he'd be here probably defending DC today. That makes the kill kind of lack scum motivation from DC; him pointing this outside weakens it a little but the way it came out re; post-merge kind of makes it not feel pre-thought/planned? like the rest of his push on me does. Still concerned with how Fable handled yesterday and aren't feeling as great about his play today either?

At the same time I don't really like how DC's gone about the whole "Oh Reg swayed me and he's scum due to it and I didn't check back things because I was fully swayed" it feels..convenient? but I'm not really sure how he's planning on winning the game if he's scum here; Fable pointed this out I think and brushed it off as something that was resembling Vira last game where she ran out of mslynches but she never really pushed anyone like DC is doing here so the comparison feels weird.

I need to work out who I really think is mafia and then after that work out if I even have enough confident in myself to actually attempt to push that through because I kind of feel like a broken man at the moment. I've tried a few different strategies this game re; "Stepping back and analysing" or "Jumping in and live interacting" or "Attempting to read gamestate more than players" and none of them have seemed to really work which is pretty depressing.

I agree and disagree here? I think if he's scum he's really taken the "end-game alone" route but I don't think that's something that's implausible to come from here. If he's scum his scum team had zero people that were solidly inside the town pool in the last few day phases which means it's the only way he'd be able to win as scum? If he tried the route of flipping his stance on us and got called out on it then it'd be curtains for the scum team. I'd like for you to think about this world just a little bit, if you think I'm wrong here sell me on it and I'll drop it completely but I'll need more than "bussed partners".

I've done my due-diligence with these two players and I don't think either are ever scum, it's not been a stellar game for me by any means and there's a lot of things I've been wrong on, unconfident on but yesterday I was pretty certain of a 2 scum with 1 in both pools and I've done a fair bit of rereading into both of them in the past few hours..and I don't see either as scum. Blab had some interactions/reads on Adult throughout the first few day phases that I really don't see panning out in that manner as a partner.

I similarly think him pushing the angle of "I think there's 4 scum with Reg as the last alone but I can see Miner with someone else if there's 5 so lets lynch him first, and I don't see Miner-Reg as partners' to really lack any real scum motivation if he's mafia here. He's taking the stance of scum reading me but then clearing me upon Miners flip (Obviously a lot changed from start of yesterday to end of yesterday so I don't think him putting me back in the suspect pool and considering me with Miner here is unreasonable at all. I've also liked how he's attempted to evaluate the game today.

As for Stanari, she'd not really locked herself into a position yesterday where she "had" to buss Miner and given her vote on him was one of the important ones that actually locked the lynch on him I'd say that's a really good sign towards her being town. I also think the way that Miner commented on her yesterday and her consideration of what his comment on her meant just feels too convoluted to be W/W, continue to think some of her posts in key situations just are too hard for scum to fake.

---------- Post automerged at 07:02 AM ---------- Previous post was at 06:58 AM ----------

A decent chunk? I was kind of hoping to actually just play a "Narrow down 4 potential scum teams to less than that and work from there" game but I never actually got it down to less than 4 and considered the world of Blab+You as quite likely there combined with thinking I was getting set up for a Miner->Me ML scum play for the loss. And the more tilting part about it is I realised post-flip that my reasoning didn't even make sense; if we were in a Fable+Blab world and you were defending him you'd have presented reasoning to back that stance up to a) Decrease the odds he gets lynched and b) Not look as bad if he did get lynched so a lot of my uh, reasoning for seeing you as partners should have actually gone the other direction.

---------- Post automerged at 07:04 AM ---------- Previous post was at 07:02 AM ----------

Planning on doing a little more reading of Miner<->Fable and Miner<->DC tonight but will probably post whatever I find from it tomorrow sometime. Kind of think I need to take this slow since it'd be nice to get something right this game.

 

Oh, you're not scum because you swayed me on stuff. You're scum for all the stuff I posted yesterday BEFORE that happened, and I'm mad I threw all that out the window and listened to you :v

I can see how that would have been unclear now, actually. But yeah any talk of that was basically me ranting about how dumb I was to fall for it, not part of any "Reg is scum" argument.

 

>Nail wolves all game and carry super hard
>Get called a wolf by Reg anyway for no reason who hasn't been right about anything all game

feelsbadman

---------- Post automerged at 08:08 AM ---------- Previous post was at 08:06 AM ----------

Like "yeah I thought blab was a wolf cuz you were but now I see that made no sense. But shut up no you're a wolf anyway cuz I said so".

WTF are you doing Reg?

---------- Post automerged at 08:09 AM ---------- Previous post was at 08:08 AM ----------

Like the part of this that's actually starting to worry me is that you're being vague as shit about your reasons for wolf reading me.

 

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

I mean if you're town and it's just DC then credit to you and I would indeed have been super hard carried by the trio of Vaimes/Pie/You but my concern here is that I think your confidence level of Miner/DC yesterday and how you treated Blab/Myself feels off? But ignore me, I'm just throwing out rubbish until I actually read through you two properly.

---------- Post automerged at 07:10 AM ---------- Previous post was at 07:10 AM ----------

I haven't been vague with my concerns at all?

Wrong? Probably? Silly? Most certainly? Vague, nope.

 

You haven't actually gone into any detail though. I don't get "I don't like how you treated blab/myself" when you admitted your reasons for that didn't make any sense. So now are there different reasons for you thinking the same thing?

 

Spoiler

I explained most of where I was at with you yesterday above; the thoughts re; you actually being partners with Blab in retrospect was silly given had that been the case you'd either a) Not defend him or b) Actually defend him properly, the middle group of you stating he's town but avoiding going into explaining the read should probably have pointed against you guys being W/W rather than enhancing my thoughts that it might have been the case.

The concern that carries over from there to now is that I think the way you handled peoples reads on me v your read on me feels out of place; you seemed to have been under the impression that there was no realistic chance I was getting lynched yesterday whereas I'd disagree with that and think a few other people alive may too. I think the reasoning you provided for town reading me was weaker than some of the reasoning you'd provided earlier in the game (Like as early as D1/D2) and it felt a sort of 'doing this just because i have to give I stated that stance' type feeling rather than 'I really think you're wrong on this dude guys' type one. This isn't a super compelling reasoning but more of a "From where I'm standing it feels wrong" type one. If you add to that where I think there's always 1 in [DC/You] and did think so yesterday and started seeing a few posts of his that I thought might come from town then it by default increases the likelihood of you being mafia.

But again this is all a pretty pointless conversation until I've done the proper reading.

---------- Post automerged at 07:22 AM ---------- Previous post was at 07:20 AM ----------

Wouldn't mind you bullet pointing these.

 

First of all that's not a reason to wolf read someone that's you still crying about me not being your cheerleader. Also for the vast majority of the day miner was the only person on your wagon so no I didn't feel compelled to defend you and I'd argue that if anyone's perception of the game is skewed it's yours.

 

Strongly disagree; Vaimes/Pie & others had stated they were considering me as the lynch for the day, them not voting me at the time =/= them not scum reading me. And no; I'm not "scum reading you for not being a cheerleader" I'm scum reading you because the way you handled the situation has a lot of scum motivation behind it and differs with how I think you've handled others throughout this game and in WH8.

But yeah, no idea why we're arguing about this. I'll finish my reading and we can talk tomorrow.

 

Don't mind if I do! I have gone through yesterday and linked most/all of the stuff I said early in the day that I decided to veer off from because I am a fickle idiot.

- Post #2675: You mention Cobalt should be town due to setup balance reasons. Then you turn around on this. This is a contributor to me thinking you bussed Cobalt.

- In the above post is also the first case of me pointing out that you flip onto Cobalt really quickly. You never address the setup balance thing again, suggesting it's simply no longer a convenient argument.

- Post #2678: Linking your interest in setup balance to the scumteam making a claim that relies on setup balance knowledge I suspect the scumteam has in order to work.

- Post #2684: Linking the really quick Cobalt turnaround to not making any sense with your expressed style of methodical townplay.

- Post #2711: Explaining scum motivation for moving onto Cobalt at that time.

- Post #2727: Explaining why your insistence that your past behaviour means you're obviously town is not a thing town players say. Also explaining why you getting annoyed you're not getting townread is scummy.

- Post #2730: Explaining that your read decay on me is very well-timed to put me into the mislynch pool

- Bonus post from Vaimes: Explaining that your well-presented content isn't automatically town for being well-presented

- Post #2750: Explaining why the votal you linked above does not by itself mean you're responsible for the Cobalt lynch, and why throwing that votal in here is actually scummy. Note that this subject immediately drops, suggesting you didn't really believe the votal cleared you or anything.

- Post #2773: Explaining your kinda panicked content spew as scummy, as scum are up against the wall here. (Side note: Scumreading blab for NOT being panicked was manifestly stupid on my part and due to stuff I've talked about earlier)

At this point I start veering off into "talk to Reg like a regular person instead of scum" land, and it's all downhill from here. I HAVE successfully identified the cause, though: I remember being in similar positions to you as town.

So tl;dr your Cobalt movement was scum motivated and your irritation at not being townread was not a reaction town generally has (I THINK I missed a post about this, but I am probably misremembering). Among other bits.

 

You're the one that brought it up.....

---------- Post automerged at 09:40 AM ---------- Previous post was at 09:24 AM ----------

Like I'd be lying if I wasn't a bit paranoid about you Reg. Because you have felt rather options open and over defensive the day and a half, I mean I think my biggest problem is that your 180 on me is really jarring. Like you had me in the top tier of your reads for most of the game up until now and now you're saying it's either me or dC and you haven't really given a good reason for it.

 

Reg feels like he's trying to open a path to victory here, dC's semi-AtE thing feels like mine when I'm scum.

 

On a surface level Reg is opening Fable/dC mislynches here, but from a scum!Reg perspective surely dc/me mislynches is the path of least resistance.
Granted, that would not follow as organically from his reads yesterday, but it still feels like trying to mislynch Fable would be playing hardmode for the sake of it.
Regfan
If you want me to even consider scum!Fable then you need to sell me that the Zen/Fable stuff D1 (from Fable critisizing Zen for putting dC as his third lowest, to Zen''s non-apology after Fable's reaction to his wall) was scumtheater, because to me that's been an unaligned pair since then.

 

Not after he hard declared you and Miner unaligned, blab.

Not to mention that like you said earlier, literally everyone rallied around you yesterday (well except me, and I am today :v)

 

These are both fair, can see how it'd look like I was "Scum leaving options open" from where I am in the game so can't blame anyone for scum reading that at all and think I'd be looking at it with an eyebrow raised too.

I'm just moreso in a state (Both yesterday and today) where I don't trust my individual player reads anywhere near as much I should or used to and have instead resorted to "Use logic and attempt to narrow down possibilities, only rule things out that are never the case rather than just 'unlikely' to be the case", could logically back up and support arguments for none of Vaimes/Stanari/Pie being mafia and thus was and am happy to move them to the side. Couldn't do the same for Fable at all, it was just a lot of "Feels town", "Not really playing to a scum win con his most of his posts" type reasoning and wasn't anywhere near strong enough to rule out someone that's competent as scum with especially when you factor in that he did have a 'path' drawn out with Kai/Fonti earlier n the game too.

Was very happy with the reasoning of Miner/Blab being unaligned which meant that I had to start considering Fable being mafia or consider DC as confirmed mafia from my point of view; when actually playing out yesterday there were elements of DC's interaction with me particularly around the latter point where it felt like he was in the same position as me and actually trying to game solve whereas I didn't see that from Fable; his confidence in his reads felt over-blown and his avoidance of explaining the Blab town read and avoidance of considering a DC/Blab world did and still does feel like he was looking at the game with different information that what I had. That's the best I can explain where I was at with it? If there's more you want from me there, just ask.

---------- Post automerged at 09:59 PM ---------- Previous post was at 09:58 PM ----------

I'll get around to this very shortly.

---------- Post automerged at 10:00 PM ---------- Previous post was at 09:59 PM ----------

Should be here for the next few hours to get to this properly. I'll get around to responding to DC's Post #3411 at that time.

---------- Post automerged at 10:12 PM ---------- Previous post was at 10:00 PM ----------

Will say this is outright one of the weirdest positions I think I've ever been inside of in a game before where I'm confident that the final scum is one of DC or Fable and that if we lynched through both we'd win but know that I'm most certainly going to be mslynched inside there at some point and probably deserve to as well.

I pretty much see one of three things happening, either I get lynched today where I'd have to leave behind a legacy where if I say it's DC and it ends up being Fable I'm going to feel shitty for not having re-evaluated enough based on the last two day phases and if I say it's Fable and it's DC I'm going to single handily have completely lost the game from a position where I'd narrowed it down to Miner + 1 of DC/Blab coming into D5 and then just ran the game off a cliff. Or we lynch DC and the game ends where I've literally been hard carried the entire way through or the even more horrible world where we lynch DC today and it ends up being a case of I have to get Fable lynched tomorrow knowing that I'm almost certainly going to be a LYLO mslynch which is not something I'd ever thought I'd be in a million years. I mean I'm looking at this here and the obvious solution and what I'm sure the dead chat are yelling is "Just focus on finding the mafia and getting them lynched" and it's what I'm going to try and do but I'm not particularly enthused about my chances of that.

Yeah, that was just a bunch of drivel but I needed to get it off my chest.

 

I think Miner's interactions on D5 are pretty interesting. Haven't had the chance to reread them enough to say anything more exact though.

 

I don't particularly need a response to #3411, Reg. Either you're scum and you did stuff you could justify from a town mindset, or you're town and did stuff that also makes sense from a scum mindset, and I don't think commentary from you will change my mind on which of these I think is happening.

 

Reading Reg AtE feels like getting punched in the throat with a sledgehammer.

 

Can 100% confirm. If he's scum he's doing a very good job of making it gut-wrenching to lynch him. Like, half the reason I'm going full rage here is to try and counteract that.

---------- Post automerged at 02:34 PM ---------- Previous post was at 02:34 PM ----------

(that's also half the reason I'm ACTUALLY annoyed, because I fell for it yesterday >_>)