Oh, hmm. That's probably weaker then, it indicates blab is behaving in a way a couple of scum want to scumread but it might be either "our scumbuddy fucked up TIME TO BUS" or setting up a future mislynch.

The latter interpretation is hampered by the entire town townreading blab, but yeah it is still a weaker argument than if it was the entire remaining scumteam. There's always distancing, but I don't think that usually happens to scumbuddies who are currently townread...it'd be pretty pre-emptive if so.

Overall I'd say if it IS only one or two scum, it's still slightly +scum but not very? They don't seem to have tried very hard to capitalize on this attempt later either, like I don't recall very much pressure being applied to blab after this. Honestly it just seems kind of weird now.

(although I might add that Cobalt was already caught in one bus :V)

 

Yeah it's more "...huh, that's interesting" than damning evidence or anything.

---------- Post automerged at 07:26 PM ---------- Previous post was at 07:23 PM ----------

Fable exhibits a similar pattern but it's not as marked.

 

Why would the plans include lynching blab if miner was a wolf? Like I don't think that means anything since blab isn't going to go "lynch miner then lynch me since I'm obviously busing here".

 

This is exactly what they WOULD say if he stuck to his townbloc from earlier. It'd be less "I'm obviously bussing" and more "we have a spare lynch we can afford to use to verify me", similar to what my behaviour around then was like.

 

???

A mislynch is almost always -EV so I don't see village!blab doing it? Like I don't see how that would help him solve the game.

 

I mean.

If this is true, then most of MY play that day was just stupid and -EV

...okay fine, point taken ._.

---------- Post automerged at 01:04 PM ---------- Previous post was at 01:01 PM ----------

(for the record, the rationale is that if your PoE contains spare mislynches you can use them on yourself to confirm it comes from town i.e. you. My impression was not that this tactic is -EV, and thus that its absence was notable. If it's widely considered -EV then okay sure)

 

I swear, do you time this? As in "it's the middle of the night in Germany, quick, let's fling shit at blab". Happened E0D5 too, with some of the same dumb reasons.

 

I mean schadenfreude is a thing.....

 

Wait no, I'm stupid.

If village!blab's thought process is "my mislynch is bad so I shouldn't advocate it", then why is he advocating it when Miner is TOWN? It should be even MORE -EV then if anything!

Like, this is kind of the core of the problem. He's proposing his own lynch, but only in scenarios scum!blab would know are impossible. If he thought it was -EV he either wouldn't do it at all or would only do it in worlds where Miner is scum since it's more affordable then. If he didn't think it was -EV he'd propose it for all worlds. Proposing it for only the worlds where it has the worst impact on town doesn't make sense from ANY assessment, but it DOES make sense from the mindset of "proposing my own lynch is towny and if I propose it in nonexistent worlds I'm still safe"

You live in Germany? Good to know. Also this looks like a scum!blab flinch.

---------- Post automerged at 02:04 PM ---------- Previous post was at 02:04 PM ----------

(EBWOP: More seriously, I live in Australia and it's probable the timezones just line up this way)

---------- Post automerged at 02:06 PM ---------- Previous post was at 02:04 PM ----------

also no seriously that's like a combination of "I can't believe this MYLO isn't just an easy dC lynch", the thing Cobalt expressed where it was like "I wouldn't have been lynched if I hadn't been busy", and "caught for the wrong reasons". Or at least what he VIEWS as the wrong reasons.

 

I don't know what about my D5 is so hard to understand but to summerize:

I came into D5 feeling good about everybody but miner and Regfan (though Stanari had low content). Furthermore felt miner and Reg were unaligned.

I felt solo!scum!Reg was the likeliest scenario, but miner had less unalignments with the rest of the players and over the Day with Reg putting forward scum!dC and scum!Fable ideas this only increased. So I suggested to lynch miner first, despite FoSsing Reg.

I reread Stanari (god bless short posts) and also felt good about her, mostly interactions with Cobalt/zen.

During the day, Reg and Fable suggested scum!dC, and while I was suspicious of Reg doing that for mislynchpool reasons, I also noticed that my townread of dC was probably the weakest of the townblock after the reread.
Because vaimes was basically mechanically confirmed, because sure, move the daykill into the scumteam and he killed scum anyway and was behaviourally town.
Fable was town since basically D1 where we talked about my reads, and had since that advocated lynching scum and advocated not going for /waco/Zen =>Jari and advocated not falling for Cobalt's shit.
Pienyan was basically townspewed D1.
I just talked about Stanari.
My dC townread was basically leftover from D1 (and EOD2) and not reconsidered really, he didn't make much of an impression after D2 on me.

So if miner flipped scum, than it's not Reg (because I was still operating under that unaligned pair before Reg fought basically tooth and nail against the miner lynch), and the game went on, then his partner is the townblock(which is the entire rest of the game) and dC felt the likeliest of all.

---------- Post automerged at 11:14 PM ---------- Previous post was at 11:13 PM ----------

I could swear I posted a post similar to this already.

---------- Post automerged at 11:16 PM ---------- Previous post was at 11:14 PM ----------

Here it is

---------- Post automerged at 11:16 PM ---------- Previous post was at 11:16 PM ----------

Less similar than I had in my memory.

 

Question: If your read on me was as weak/outdated as you say, why exactly did you post earlier (here) that you can explain any singular read? The way I'm reading this, Reg asks you to and you basically go "uhhhh...ok never mind dC isn't town"

 

This is like the opposite from what I did.
I explicitly left out Reg+miner from my likely scumteams, I mentioned the Reg+miner unalignement, I said that Reg is unlikely in a 5 player team, which was my prime motivation for not lynching him that Day.

 

More interesting things: the whole scumteam had nulls on Waco. blab and dC both had slight townreads on Waco; Fable had a null.

 

Yeah, that's sort of it, actually.
Itwas, yeah, huh, my townread on dC is sort of weak actually.

Going to have to reread him before answering Reg.....maybe not, because I am lazy.

 

blab fits best with the general trend of the scumteam having soft/medium townreads on Miner but this is not a large pattern because sample size is so small.

I think this is probably at the point where my vision of the game is overly granular but whatever.

 

Okay but I'm gonna go bust out that big analysis post I did that was early on in the Waco lynch now :V

Here, this one. I think the granularity thing also extends to over-examining D1, it's useful for general trend analysis but town has so little info that town votes and stances can end up being wildly misrepresentative.

So, what, you posted the townbloc without really thinking through your townreads and tried to get people to agree to it as a game-winning mechanism? This does not seem town to me.

 

[indistinct vaguely choking noise]

---------- Post automerged at 09:31 PM ---------- Previous post was at 09:30 PM ----------

Just pointing out interesting D1 things, but yeah I'm done staring at grids.

 

Side note, one of the many things I am mad at myself for is not being more critical of Miner doing that at the time >_>

---------- Post automerged at 02:37 PM ---------- Previous post was at 02:35 PM ----------

EBWOP: Wait no I spend a whole lot of time after this going after Miner. Why exactly did I stop???

---------- Post automerged at 02:40 PM ---------- Previous post was at 02:37 PM ----------

DOUBLE EBWOP: ...oh, I get distracted by blab and font says "hey did miner just townslip" and I'm like "maybe!!!", then the massclaim happens and we end up focusing on that instead

Okay now I'm SUPER annoyed I didn't go back and revisit that case later. It's like the one decent thing I've done this game (other than the Waco thing I guess) and I just completely forgot about it ._.

 

D4 Miner interactions, part one??

Spoiler

---------- Post automerged at 09:43 PM ---------- Previous post was at 09:42 PM ----------

In 14 Miner posts, 11 are interactions with dC.

---------- Post automerged at 09:46 PM ---------- Previous post was at 09:43 PM ----------

Miner and blab are never really in thread at the same time AFAICT? Just quickly checked iso timestamps so not 100% sure, but the lack of interaction is interesting.

---------- Post automerged at 09:49 PM ---------- Previous post was at 09:46 PM ----------

Also this is fun?

---------- Post automerged at 09:55 PM ---------- Previous post was at 09:49 PM ----------

I'm probably off for the night soon, I've spent far longer than I should have on this game already.

I'd like to highlight this Miner post to Fable re: dC.

[vague unhappy throat noises]

 

Ok, I am slightly more awake and slightly less cranky now.

I didn't campaign for my townbloc to be adopted, my argument was that getting 5 correct universally agreed upon locktowns might be an easier road to victory than correctly sniffing out scum. That feeling was of course because I had many townreads.

I guess I can see how the townblock/lynchtree thing is scummy fyPOV, so I guess it's not wholly dumb reasons.
I wrote the first lynchorder, because I really couldn't see a 2team not featuring miner and wanted to box in Regfan.
I wrote the second lynchorder, because I felt like even if we considered every new scum!option that Regfan introduced, we could still defeat them basically all, so Regfan's frantic fighting seemed fake.

My activity is bad, I'm sorry, that's in part me missing most end of beginning of day activity, me apparently being on at different times than most everybody else, me being busy, me trying to use most of my freetime studying.