Gotta keep the meme alive.

Also re: Hunter claim, pretty sure a town!Hunter would have said something, given the very specific timing of their role.

 

That's not why I think the thing, but that works too.

---------- Post automerged at 06:59 PM ---------- Previous post was at 06:57 PM ----------

There's always witchsassin to worry about for a town!Hunter, too, I guess.

---------- Post automerged at 07:04 PM ---------- Previous post was at 06:59 PM ----------

Wait, never mind. I'm so deep in possible worlds wine hell right now that I can't keep things straight.

 

Uhh, ew.

If the Hunter is town, DO NOT CLAIM. All it will do is allow you to be rolekilled and give the Demons insight into who to protect from your shot.

Can you explain why you think this is a good idea?

 

I like that this post seems thought through? Not just "Spiritualist should do the thing because yolo".

I mean, we might not actually have an UT, either. In worlds where Mal is any kind of witch, the information is vital. Townfirmed Mal is also kind of important, because we're sitting around doing.... this.

I mean, we are supposedly operating in "Either UT is scum or Mal is town" land right now because of no claim, right? But that doesn't feel absolutely correct...

... but also things and stuff.

I like the idea of the pool of players thing, but turning it on to "unless you don't wanna" is... no. It has to be a binary choice if we do pool of players, and honestly, Actually, pool of players might be bad.

Hunter maybe also? Maybe? We'd have to get public opinion on that, too, but I don't want all of UT, Spiritualist, and Hunter to claim...

I can't believe I'm advocating semi-massclaim on D3 in an obliteration setup. What the fuck is wrong with me.

... but it doesn't feel like town has any other options for info? @_@ Help? Someone?

Also, while we're at it. Hunter can also choose to not shoot. This is also a valid option.

 

Oh right, I'm not thinking about mechanics.

Witch Assassin isn't really an issue, 'cause...we get to immediately kill a witch.

But the Demon protection thing is yeah, wasn't even thinking about it.

 

The more I think about this, the more I feel like Town!Hunter should never shoot, period.

---------- Post automerged at 07:38 PM ---------- Previous post was at 07:37 PM ----------

The rules do say "may", unless "may" means something else, here.

 

I mean, I was assuming it should be used as essentially an extra lynch (i.e. "shoot player X or nobody") but I haven't actually run the numbers. Does a Hunter miss possibly/probably/definitely cost us a day?

 

It could cost us... more than a day?

 

A demon protection is announced though

Off to find whatever Fluffiness's anger revolves around

 

Ok so not much spare time at work today so this is probably it from me for the next few hours.

Beru is town (longshot LW) for a few reasons:

1. beru just doesn't try this hard as scum: she'd be totally content to do 'enough' and let town drive itself off a cliff.

2. She doesn't try and water down the mal-acio read at end of day 2 after trying to get him lynched or reading acio as acio for the rest of the game. If beru was scum here I'd expect she'd be like 'he had it coming for not posting and replacing out' and not the awful waffling about she actually did.

3. beru's skillset is biased towards rolereads and analysis, but scum already have a huge info advantage because of starting roles and the lw/agent pool so the amount of work she's done in thread makes most sense as town or maybe lw.

4. The fable miner thing is ???? as Elder, has some potential as a LW play but makes the most sense coming from town beru. Being SO SMART and finding the LW's is the kind of thing she loves.

It's borderline gamethrowing coming from an Elder if fable and miner are both actually in the lw/agent pool; and if both of them aren't then she's an Elder that found a coincidence and is hyping up something that she knows is 100% completely untrue.

As a LW it makes some sense, but you're more likely to have found a coincidence or coven than agents, I can see it being a signal but my view is beru would do something a bit more... subtle.

So coming from town, she's legitimately looking for this kind of thing and the worst that can happen is you hit a false positive or the agents, which isn't a huge loss either way? Like, having two townfirms running around on d2 at the cost of increased witch confidence + guaranteed halftime recruit is pretty good? And otherwise you're hitting the coven or the LW which is huge.

Actually.

Is it the play to have agents just reveal here? I'd assume witches haven't shot at them (unless rubicon was one and they'd expected him to say tom was town as a LW?) so that's two uncontestable townfirms that witches already know aren't holy.

That seems really good? No huge downsides, but maybe I'm underestimating the benefit that witches get from more winking in thread and a for sure halftime recruit or just not seeing something obvious here.

(side note: this is not something I thought about while working on the setup)

---------- Post automerged at 12:51 PM ---------- Previous post was at 12:50 PM ----------

All protection looks exactly the same to living players.

 

Like let's say we say lynch A hunter shoot B. B is protected in the Night.

We can now deduce:
A) Demons used their protection on B
B) Demons used their Illusion Kill on B (JK I'M DUMB)
C) Angels used protection on B
D) B had an extra-life

Aren't all scenarios net-gain for Town? Like in scenario A we force Demons to blow their one-use protection. Just realized scenario B is dumb. In C the Angels with the knowledge they have (greater than ours) decide it's worth saving B. Worst case Demons haunted B, but that means that if angels didn't protect B then B would have died anyways.

So we come to the final conclusion that either we forced Demons to blow their one protection, the Angels think it was worth protecting them with all the information that they have, or B had an extra-life (and if they don't tell us that, then they'd probably be scum anyways).

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think it's an overall net + for us, unless I didn't account for something?

 

oh right, you mean like 'the only way someone can be protected from the hunter in this game is the demon, so its obviously the demon protect if that happens'?

 

wait yes I'm stupid ok

oh wow I'm VERY stupid b/c the whole reason we're not directing them in the first place is the Demon protect

so...the options for a town Hunter are either:
- Hit an unclaimed target, risk hitting holy
- Force target to claim during the day before hitting them, risk demons protecting target (also, forcing claim is bad for other reasons)
- Don't shoot at all

okay yeah

wait, is there any gamestate in which town!Hunter actually wants to fire???

I can't find anything to say it's announced as distinct from generic survival, though. So "Hunter shoots scum, Demon protects scum" fails to differentiate from "Scum shoot town, Angels protect town".

 

You're right mechanically, because angels do have a oneshot that can protect against hunter, BUT we can't tell how they survived, just that they did.

So we're actually not much better off at all, because we don't gain anything in world C (we actually lose angel resources) and still need to make a decision on whether to lynch them after their ambiguous survival.

 

The worse outcome you're not accounting for is "B stands for Bishop, who the Angels can't save from a Hunter kill"

---------- Post automerged at 12:56 PM ---------- Previous post was at 12:56 PM ----------

wait goddamit angels can protect from hunter now?? gfdi

okay

 

Hrmm. Kai. I agree with some of your points on Beruru quite a lot.

I too was actually pondering the agents/LW thing myself, as it's literally just buying off letting the EW's get their recruit for free when we don't even know if they'd get it anyways. And I guess losing out on an extra-life for a conf!town player.

But couldn't a witch just fake "oh hey guys I got +life'd and I'm an agent conf!town me!" so it's not necessarily perfect when witches recruit an agent anyways

hmm hmm

My gut said let the agents decide if they want to claim.

Actually I just convinced myself out of it.

Eh this might be a little -EV to point out but...

If an Agent is up for lynch I'd expect them to claim because it's +EV?
If a LW is up for lynch and doesn't claim, it effectively signals to the EW's that that player is a LW?

So it's NOT good for us to ask for the Agents to just claim. Because the town!firm is only useful for preventing us from accidentally mislynching them, BUT they can already avoid that by just claiming if we are going to mislynch them?

---------- Post automerged at 09:57 PM ---------- Previous post was at 09:56 PM ----------

Wait I think Angels can one-time protect from anything correct?

---------- Post automerged at 09:59 PM ---------- Previous post was at 09:57 PM ----------
KaiDASH dichotomousCreator

The optimal way to do this (imo at this time) would be to treat the hunter!target like a lynch. Aka they know that they should claim if they think they should, the same way a lynch!target should claim if they think they should. That avoids the scenario where we accidentally lose a conf!town or something important. Allowing a town!hunter to blind-fire without doing the above ALREADY risks them shooting an important town.

The down-side is they have to out, but if it's important enough that they should out, it would have been MORE -EV to lose them overnight to a hunter shot so nothing lost?

 

Townfirms have a bit more utility than just being not mislynchable.

-

Angels have a oneshot they can use on any kill, but it only protects once so it's ineffective against rolekills.

 

Fuck I got on to answer fluffiness's questions but the allure of mechanics ahhhh

Pagan - Once per game at the end of night, you may Reveal your role. That night, the Demon's Hauntings provide protection & the Angels do nothing.

Once per game the Angels may enhance their protection, allowing it to protect the chosen player(s) from any kind of kill for that night, rather than only the Witch Night Kill.

These are the relevant rules/roles per above.

---------- Post automerged at 10:02 PM ---------- Previous post was at 10:01 PM ----------

In scenarios where we want the angels to protect someone for us as a hunter target, their role wouldn't be known? In scenarios where their role is known (ex: specific holy role claim before Day ends), the hunter shouldn't be shooting them anyhow?

 

I guess?

That waters it down by /a lot/ because it's then a lynch that only kills town, and our valuation on the next day (if they are protected) then has to be lynch 100%, because demons can protect town & always protect witches? So it's like, Witches always survive and town sometimes survives?

Agent / lw confuses that a little but probably not in a hugely prolematic way for the demons to make their decision? (and agent should claim anyway rather than risk it)

 

The fuck Fluffiness, I'm going to be kind of irritated about you rage-pinging me when I ALREADY ANSWERED THIS.

For instant analysis it's useful (except I haven't had time to look through it), and also for mid to late-game analysis when we have more information to use with it. Just like with the Tom CFD knowing he was scum said a LOT about the players that had fluid votes then.

Seriously Fluffiness.

---------- Post automerged at 10:07 PM ---------- Previous post was at 10:05 PM ----------

Keep in mind with an unannounced hunter shot we don't know which kill is which, and we don't know if one was an illusion kill.

Wouldn't the alternative be it's a lynch that randomly removes someone and we never discover what they were (unless spiritualist)? Like isn't it objectively better to allow players that have town!firmable roles to claim even if they're set to die? In this situation we force the witches to use their kill on the player. This is the whole point of allowing some players/roles to claim when they're getting lynched by Day, AND we theoretically have the GD/UT there too?

---------- Post automerged at 10:08 PM ---------- Previous post was at 10:07 PM ----------

@His_fluffiness
I even am specifically pulling up the post for you

---------- Post automerged at 10:08 PM ---------- Previous post was at 10:08 PM ----------

Who Posted?
Total Posts: 3,200
User Name Posts
Miner 327
Beruru 309
dichotomousCreator 292
Citrus 245
Fable 237
Vaimes 223
Jarizok 216
Rubicon 190
tom 179
owner 164
KaiDASH 157
dyachei 145
weiyaoli 122
his fluffiness 94
Silvercrys3467 82
Newcomb 80
Acionyx 68
mallorean_thug 24

---------- Post automerged at 10:09 PM ---------- Previous post was at 10:08 PM ----------

If I find the time tonight, I want to look over Owner + Tom's D1 posts (would absolutely love if someone else can get around to it though)